1. 08-03-14 04:35 PM #1
    HUY
    HUY's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-29-09
    Posts: 253
    Betpoints: 3257

    Pinnacle odds movement study

    I have added some new data for you guys to check: http://www.statsfair.com/pinnacle/oddsdrift

    The less odds move, the more accurate Pinnacle's opening odds were. So this data might give a hint on which markets are soft when they open. This seems to be the case with tennis for example.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 3 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: tradeout, pico, and peacebyinches
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 3
  2. 08-04-14 01:41 PM #2
    flsaders85
    flsaders85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-06-11
    Posts: 68
    Betpoints: 5253

    I'm confused with your graphs and what you're saying about tennis. The curve foir tennis looks like a tight fit which seems like very little odds move to me. Am I intepreting that correctly?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 08-04-14 02:01 PM #3
    HUY
    HUY's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-29-09
    Posts: 253
    Betpoints: 3257

    Quote Originally Posted by flsaders85 View Post
    I'm confused with your graphs and what you're saying about tennis. The curve foir tennis looks like a tight fit which seems like very little odds move to me. Am I intepreting that correctly?
    No. The tennis curves are close together (tight, as you put it) because there is a lot of data on tennis so the estimate (middle of the three curves) is better. To see the estimate, just project to the y axis.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 08-05-14 07:11 AM #4
    nash13
    nash13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-14
    Posts: 1,122
    Betpoints: 7160

    That's great work. Do you program it yourself?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 08-05-14 07:57 AM #5
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,806
    Betpoints: 9221

    Have you found any sport apart from baseball where the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

    Do you have a theory why this is different for baseball?

    How do you think we could best use this info?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 08-05-14 09:29 AM #6
    JR007
    JR007's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-10
    Posts: 5,279
    Betpoints: 0

    nothing scientific here, but I have charted college football and baskets in the past.....I have seen pinny juice the wrong side the second or third move before the closing line...spread/moneyline......quite often
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 08-05-14 03:52 PM #7
    HUY
    HUY's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-29-09
    Posts: 253
    Betpoints: 3257

    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    That's great work. Do you program it yourself?
    Thanks! Yes, I programmed it myself.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 08-05-14 03:53 PM #8
    HUY
    HUY's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-29-09
    Posts: 253
    Betpoints: 3257

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Have you found any sport apart from baseball where the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

    Do you have a theory why this is different for baseball?

    How do you think we could best use this info?
    What makes you believe that in baseball the favourite odds are higher at close than open?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 08-05-14 03:54 PM #9
    BatemanPatrickl
    JayVegas420 Contest Winner
    BatemanPatrickl's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-21-07
    Posts: 18,772
    Betpoints: 129

    Quote Originally Posted by JR007 View Post
    nothing scientific here, but I have charted college football and baskets in the past.....I have seen pinny juice the wrong side the second or third move before the closing line...spread/moneyline......quite often
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 08-05-14 09:37 PM #10
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,806
    Betpoints: 9221

    Quote Originally Posted by HUY View Post
    What makes you believe that in baseball the favourite odds are higher at close than open?
    Don't worry. I misunderstood. Re-read the first post and get it now.
    Last edited by Optional; 08-05-14 at 09:43 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 08-10-14 04:45 PM #11
    OMGRandyJackson
    OMGRandyJackson's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-07-10
    Posts: 1,680
    Betpoints: 4054

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Have you found any sport apart from baseball where the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

    Do you have a theory why this is different for baseball?
    Could it be for baseball, lineups are usually posted many hours after the opening line?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 08-10-14 05:19 PM #12
    ace888
    ace888's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-09-14
    Posts: 43
    Betpoints: 112

    Quote Originally Posted by OMGRandyJackson View Post
    Could it be for baseball, lineups are usually posted many hours after the opening line?
    thats not the case i think
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »