[El Nino]

Mariners add Smyly. Seattle making a lot of moves, not sure that any of them are making them a better team...

[BigSpoon]

Mariners add Smyly. Seattle making a lot of moves, not sure that any of them are making them a better team...

The Mariners have now made 11 trades this offseason, including four in the last six days. No other team has made more than five trades all offseason.

[EmpireMaker]

While the Brian Dozier saga has been a drawn out process, it seems that the Twins and Dodgers have agreed to table talks for the time being. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press adds a bit more on the talks that never gained enough traction to push a deal across the finish line, reporting that Los Angeles wasn’t willing to part with any of Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart alongside top prospect Jose De Leon. L.A.’s refusal to deal Alvarez or Buehler has been previously reported, though Stewart’s name hasn’t been previously mentioned as a sticking point. As Berardino also adds in his column, Twins GM Thad Levine discussed the talks on Go 96.3 FM, explaining that a hard deadline in talks was never set. However, he also suggested that the Twins won’t be initiating further talks with the Dodgers. “The reality is there’s going to be a point in time in this offseason where we may stop initiating calls but we’re always going to pick up the phone and hear teams out,” said Levine.
Dozier, too, appeared on the show (audio link) and called the trade drama an “eye-opening experience,” adding that it was interesting to “[dig] deeper into how other clubs value you, how the Twins value you, and that kind of thing.”
A few additional notes from the American League…

• The Twins were somewhat surprisingly connected to free agent Jose Bautista yesterday, but La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins don’t have interest in the slugger. The link between the Twins and Bautista was never characterized as a strong one, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reported that the Twins touched base with Bautista’s agent. They may well have done so out of due diligence — chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said yesterday that the club has an idea of a price point at which they’d be interested in every remaining free agent — and simply found that Bautista is still seeking more than they’d care to commit. Of course, the 36-year-old Bautista doesn’t seem like a great on-paper fit for a team in the Twins’ situation anyhow, though a team with a protected first-round pick (like Minnesota) could perhaps gamble on punting its second pick in the hopes of flipping Bautista this July for greater value.
• There’s been no talk of a new contract between the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka, general manager Brian Cashman tells Mike Mazzeo of the New York Daily News. Tanaka is, of course, technically under contract with the Yankees for another four years, but he also has an opt-out clause in his contract following the 2017 season, which will allow him to re-enter the free agent market if he performs well. “We have a significant contract with Masahiro Tanaka,” said Cashman. “…I think he pitched like a Cy Young award candidate last year, and I certainly hope he does so again this year. But at this point we’ve had no discussions internally to pursue any kind of extension.” Tanaka is just one of three Yankees starters that is set to hit free agency next winter, as lefty CC Sabathia and righty Michael Pineda will also see their contracts expire.
• Mazzeo adds that Cashman said he’s “not in active trade talks at all” regarding veteran Yankees like Brett Gardner, Chase Headley or any of his position players. That comes as little surprise, as Cashman has quite recently suggested that the roster, as currently constructed, is the likely roster that the team will take into Spring Training. While both seemed like on-paper trade candidates entering the offseason, neither Gardner nor Headley ever surfaced all that much on the rumor circuit.
• Tigers GM Al Avila appeared on 97.1 FM The Ticket in Detroit and discussed the team’s needs in center field, and CBS Detroit’s Will Burchfield has highlights from the interview. Avila acknowledged that the Tigers are keeping tabs on the free agent market, but also cautioned, “…if you look at what you’re going to get in production, you have to evaluate that compared to what you already have in-house.” Avila listed usual candidates Tyler Collins, Anthony Gose and JaCoby Jones as options and also twice mentioned non-roster invite Alex Presley without being prompted (per MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery, on Twitter).
• In a full column on Avila’s interview, Woodbery notes that the GM said he’s fielded calls about left-handed reliever Justin Wilson this winter but decided there’s more value to Wilson opening the year in the bullpen. Wilson, as Woodbery notes, could boost his value with improved results this season and become a more appealing trade chip this summer. As I noted when previewing the Tigers’ offseason in October, Wilson’s bottom-line results were rather pedestrian, but his secondary stats suggest that he should see a rebound from 2016’s lackluster 4.14 ERA.

[Chi_archie]

Rooting for Alex Presley

[JAKEPEAVY21]

twins should trade Dozier while is value is high

[El Nino]

twins should trade Dozier while is value is high

They are trying to get max value. The dance continues.

[koz-man]

Lucas Duda and the Mets have settled for $7.25 million, according to Jon Heyman. Duda is eligible for free agency after the 2017 season.

[Cross]

Why don't the twins just keep him?

[El Nino]

Why don't the twins just keep him?

They are trying to get max value. Dozier is probably a career .250 25 HR 80 RBI player. He just went off for .268 42 HR 99 RBI. He's 29 years old, his true market value if he was to be on the open market is somewhere around 6 years $120 million.

The Twins had the 2nd worst run differential in the majors last season. A power hitting 2B is a luxury they cannot afford. The Twins have had a top 3 prospect farm for years now. Those prospects have not produced up to expectations. They need young talent and pitching. Worse case scenario, Twins keep him for one more year and try and move him next season. Dozier becomes a UFA at the end of the 2018 season, he will be 31 in 2019. Also, Mauer comes off the books at the end of the 2018 season. Setting up for the future.

[EmpireMaker]

The Dodgers and Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez have reportedly struck agreement on a minor league contract. He is set to receive a $200K signing bonus. Fernandez is exempt from international bonus pools due to his age and experience in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.

Fernandez left Cuba in December 2015, with Major League Baseball officially granting his free agency last April. He drew wide attention from scouts and evaluators during multiple showcases last year, with the Padres long thought to be one of the favorites to sign the 28-year-old and the Athletics also reportedly showing strong interest. Instead, it seems as if Fernandez will become the latest in a long line of Cuban talents to suit up in Dodger blue.
Back in April 2015, Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked Fernandez as the third-best player in Cuba, with Badler praising the left-handed hitter’s approach at the plate, contact skills and plate discipline. Fernandez has slashed .319/.403/.423 over 2580 career plate appearances in the Serie Nacional, recording 263 walks against just 113 strikeouts. Badler felt Fernandez was only an “adequate” fielder at second base and graded his power and baserunning as below average, though overall, Fernandez was thought to be a player capable of more or less stepping right into the major leagues.
Thanks to a previous failed attempt to defect, however, Fernandez hasn’t played since 2014, so he’ll certainly need some time in the minors to get back into proper game shape. If he is able to regain his old form and stick at his old position — Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that Fernandez has been mostly playing third base in winter ball action — he stands out as an intriguing possibility for the Dodgers’ wide-open second base spot.
With Micah Johnson designated for assignment recently, it seems at present that Enrique Hernandez, Charlie Culberson and Chris Taylor are the incumbent candidates on the Dodgers’ roster. Jack of all trades Austin Barnes might also factor in the mix. Helping Fernandez’s cause, perhaps, is the fact that all of those players — excepting Johnson, who’s in DFA limbo — hit from the right side.
Of course, the Dodgers could still look outside the organization. Though L.A. has been widely linked to Brian Dozier in trade rumors, those talks seem to have cooled of late. The Dodgers have also explored trades for players like the Rays’ Logan Forsythe and the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler, while Chase Utley is still available as a possible fallback option if a bigger-name upgrade can’t be acquired.

[Otters27]

Where is Matt Holliday going to end up. Seems amazing that 10 years has passed since his famous bloody slide into home plate to start the Rockies only run to a World Series

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Where is Matt Holliday going to end up. Seems amazing that 10 years has passed since his famous bloody slide into home plate to start the Rockies only run to a World Series

his numbers have been getting worse and he has always been a pretty bad outfielder defensively.

[Chi_archie]

Arbitration numbers coming in

[koz-man]

They are trying to get max value. Dozier is probably a career .250 25 HR 80 RBI player. He just went off for .268 42 HR 99 RBI. He's 29 years old, his true market value if he was to be on the open market is somewhere around 6 years $120 million.

The Twins had the 2nd worst run differential in the majors last season. A power hitting 2B is a luxury they cannot afford. The Twins have had a top 3 prospect farm for years now. Those prospects have not produced up to expectations. They need young talent and pitching. Worse case scenario, Twins keep him for one more year and try and move him next season. Dozier becomes a UFA at the end of the 2018 season, he will be 31 in 2019. Also, Mauer comes off the books at the end of the 2018 season. Setting up for the future.

Excellent analysis!!!

[EmpireMaker]

6:18pm: Blackmon will receive $7.3MM, Heyman tweets. Chatwood, meanwhile, lands closer to his projection at $4.4MM, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter).
6:09pm: The Rockies have avoided arbitration with center fielder Charlie Blackmon, the team announced. Colorado also has struck a deal with righty Tyler Chatwood, wrapping up the team’s arb work for the winter.
Neither salary has been reported at this point, but both players are expected to command significant raises after strong season. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Blackmon at $9MM and Chatwood at $4.8MM. The former is in his second season of eligibility, with one more to go, while the latter will be a free agent after the 2017 season.

[EmpireMaker]

9:39pm: San Diego GM A.J. Preller says that a deal isn’t complete, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. “Still nothing finalized,” he said. “We’re trying to work to something here in the next week.”
3:42pm: Myers does indeed have a deal, per ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (via Twitter), though his physical is still pending.
2:42pm: The Padres are nearing agreement on a multi-year extension with first baseman Wil Myers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He is expected to receive a six-year deal with over $80MM guaranteed.
If completed, the pact would cover his remaining three years of arbitration eligibility and extend the team’s control for three additional campaigns. Entering his first trip through the arb process, Myers was projected to earn $4.7MM by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. Instead, it seems, he’ll take home a much heftier stack of cash in exchange to contractual rights through his age-31 season.

The total package, as currently reported, stands to fall well shy of the top recent comparable: Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM deal with the Braves. Both players were in the 3+ service class and were projected for similar first-year arb salaries at the times of their deals. Of course, Freeman’s deal also covered two additional free-agent-eligible campaigns, so Myers figures to have an earlier chance to test the open market.
In total guarantee, this contract would fall closer to the recent agreement between the Giants and Brandon Belt. That deal promised Belt — a 4+ service-class player who signed his new deal right at the start of the 2016 season — $72.8MM over five years. If you include his 2016 arb salary in the total, it worked out to a six-year, $79MM package.
Myers, 26, put it all together in 2016 for the Padres, who gave up Trea Turner and Joe Ross to acquire him in a three-team blockbuster before the prior campaign. After two injury-shortened campaigns, he compiled 676 plate appearances of .259/.336/.461 hitting while providing both 28 home runs and stolen bases. That garnered the former Rookie of the Year his first All-Star nod. With quality glovework and outstanding overall baserunning mixed in, Myers was worth 3.8 fWAR and 3.2 rWAR on the year.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm glad the Padres locked up Myers..

[Chi_archie]

Myers will be good

[koz-man]

Smart move by San Diego locking Myers up...

[El Nino]

I'm glad the Padres locked up Myers..

He had a sneaky great year last season.

[EmpireMaker]

The days of sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista terrorizing opposing pitchers as part of the same lineup might not be over. Despite general manager Mike Chernoff’s implication earlier this week that the Indians are done making major splashes after signing Encarnacion, they’re still “in touch” with Bautista and other free agents, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.
Whether Cleveland will make any other significant moves this offseason will depend on ownership’s willingness to further increase payroll, per Rosenthal. In light of that, it’s perhaps worth noting that the Indians’ run to the World Series last season generated a sizable amount of extra revenue for the franchise.
Should ownership sign off on adding Bautista, whose market has been shockingly quiet this winter, it would reunite him and longtime Toronto teammate Encarnacion and make the reigning American League champions’ lineup even more formidable. The 36-year-old Bautista would likely continue as a right fielder in Cleveland, which already has Carlos Santana and Encarnacion set to occupy designated hitter and first base.
The Indians seem to have a full contingent of outfielders with Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Brandon Guyer and Abraham Almonte in the fold, not to mention prospect Bradley Zimmer nearing the majors. Brantley missed nearly all of last season with shoulder issues, though, so Bautista’s presence would provide insurance if he’s unable to bounce back in 2017. And no one else from that group is nearly as established as Bautista, who Rosenthal suggests could bump Chisenhall to center.
Bautista rejected a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays before becoming a free agent, which means signing him could cost any team without a top 10 pick a first-rounder in next summer’s draft. The Indians already punted their top selection to secure Encarnacion, however, so they would only have to surrender a second-rounder – currently No. 64 – to sign Bautista. If they do, a back-loaded, two-year deal could be a possibility, according to Rosenthal, who notes that Santana is scheduled to become a free agent next offseason. Bautista would then take over for Santana at DH/first, which would be a logical step for an aging player who’s not an asset in the outfield. Bautista is certainly a positive at the plate, though; even in a down, injury-shortened 2016, he still slashed a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 home runs in 517 plate appearances.
Regardless of whether they reel in Bautista or another corner outfielder, the Indians are also continuing to monitor the corner infield and relief markets, writes Rosenthal. Any further additions would beef up an Opening Day payroll that Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource projects for $119MM-plus. The Indians began last season in the $96MM range and ended it one win from a World Series championship.

[Chi_archie]

Go for it Cleveland!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

He had a sneaky great year last season.

kid is still young too, hopefully that was just a taste of what he can do.

[koz-man]

Go for it Cleveland!

From what I've been reading. It looks like a good possibility that they will sign Jose.

[El Nino]

From what I've been reading. It looks like a good possibility that they will sign Jose.

I wouldn't do it.

[EmpireMaker]

Back to Toronto

7:50am: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports hears that the two sides are discussing a two-year contract (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal agrees, tweeting that Bautista and the Jays are discussing a two-year pact in the $35-40MM range. That’s a departure from Passan’s report, though it should be noted that Passan’s tweets were around 2am, so there’s certainly been enough time for talks to have changed course.
JAN. 16, 7:13am: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the two sides have discussed multiple iterations of a deal but are currently focused on a one-year pact (Twitter links). A deal isn’t quite done yet, but each side is optimistic that something will be completed.
JAN. 15: The Blue Jays have emerged as the front-runners for free agent right fielder Jose Bautista’s services and are nearing an agreement with the slugger, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (Twitter link). Details regarding the potential pact aren’t yet known, but Toronto hadn’t been willing to give the Octagon/Jay Alou client a deal worth more than the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer as of late December.

Bautista has been on the open market since rejecting a qualifying offer from Toronto in November, though the 36-year-old’s venture into free agency hasn’t gone according to plan. Despite serving as one of the majors’ foremost offensive weapons since an out-of-nowhere breakout in 2010, serious interest in Bautista has been scarce this offseason. Bautista has been willing to consider a one-year deal as a result, but it seems having to surrender a first-round pick to sign him has scared off potential suitors.
It also hasn’t helped Bautista’s cause that he’s coming off a disappointing season, one that featured multiple stints on the disabled list and an offensive decline. While Bautista hit a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 home runs in 517 plate appearances, those numbers represented a stark drop-off from the ones he has typically posted as a Blue Jay. After toiling in anonymity with various teams from 2004-09, Bautista slashed a stellar .268/.390/.555 with 227 homers as a Jay between 2010-15.
Thanks to that otherworldly six-year run, Bautista was reportedly seeking a half-decade-long extension worth $150MM last winter. Toronto unsurprisingly balked at that asking price, and the club’s decision was clearly wise given Bautista’s production in 2016. It’ll look that much better if the team is able to bring back Bautista at what should be a palatable price on a short-term contract.
The Blue Jays have already lost one of the longtime faces of their franchise, first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, to free agency this offseason. Encarnacion landed in Cleveland, which knocked the Jays out of the playoffs last year and has also shown interest in Bautista. But it doesn’t appear the two will reunite this offseason, which is welcome news to a Jays club that’s in dire need of corner outfield help.
Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource is currently projecting that the light-hitting Ezequiel Carrera will man Bautista’s spot in right, while free agent pickup Steve Pearce is slated to start in left. Pearce is far better suited for first base, though, and the Jays could stand to upgrade over Justin Smoak there. Re-upping Bautista would enable them to shift Pearce and their most significant offseason acquisition to date, Kendrys Morales, between first and designated hitter and perhaps platoon Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. in left.
While retaining Bautista would be a boon to Toronto’s offense (and likely the morale of its fans), he does come with drawbacks. In addition to his offensive regression last season, Bautista continued to fall off in the field, as he finished with negative grades in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-6) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-5.6) for the second year in a row. He also failed to provide value on the base paths, making Bautista a one-dimensional player at this stage of his career. That dimension is rather effective, though, and is apparently going to lead him back to Toronto, where he’s an icon. Keeping Bautista will cost the Jays the compensatory first-round pick they’d have netted had he headed elsewhere, but the club seemingly values what he could bring in future years more than that selection.

[Chi_archie]

BJ upton is still around?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I wouldn't do it.

no way, Jose!

[BigSpoon]

Glad the Jays brought back Bautista. Would have preferred Edwin instead but oh well.

[koz-man]

Royals, Danny Duffy agree to 5-year, $65M contract

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Perhaps the Royals and Danny Duffy thought Kansas City sports fans could use some good news.
The team announced a $65 million, five-year contract with the popular left-hander on Monday, ensuring he will remain with the Royals through the 2021 season. Duffy was eligible for arbitration and could have become a free agent after the upcoming season.
Instead, he will earn $5 million this year before a bump to $14 million in 2018. He will make $15.25 million each in 2019 and 2020 and $15.5 million in the final year of the deal.
"Danny has been great. He has one of the best arms in all of baseball," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said earlier this offseason. "The fact that he's left-handed makes him more special and separates him even more. He's the kind of pitcher we all envision."

[EmpireMaker]

wil myers & padres are in basic agreement on 6-year deal plus 1 option year. believed to be for $83M.

[Cross]

Love the dozier analysis, thanks!

[El Nino]

Good for Duffy. KC people were singing his praises on twitter all day. Seems like a good dude.

[Chi_archie]

Royals, Danny Duffy agree to 5-year, $65M contract


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Perhaps the Royals and Danny Duffy thought Kansas City sports fans could use some good news.
The team announced a $65 million, five-year contract with the popular left-hander on Monday, ensuring he will remain with the Royals through the 2021 season. Duffy was eligible for arbitration and could have become a free agent after the upcoming season.
Instead, he will earn $5 million this year before a bump to $14 million in 2018. He will make $15.25 million each in 2019 and 2020 and $15.5 million in the final year of the deal.
"Danny has been great. He has one of the best arms in all of baseball," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said earlier this offseason. "The fact that he's left-handed makes him more special and separates him even more. He's the kind of pitcher we all envision."

hope he stays healthy

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Royals, Danny Duffy agree to 5-year, $65M contract


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Perhaps the Royals and Danny Duffy thought Kansas City sports fans could use some good news.
The team announced a $65 million, five-year contract with the popular left-hander on Monday, ensuring he will remain with the Royals through the 2021 season. Duffy was eligible for arbitration and could have become a free agent after the upcoming season.
Instead, he will earn $5 million this year before a bump to $14 million in 2018. He will make $15.25 million each in 2019 and 2020 and $15.5 million in the final year of the deal.
"Danny has been great. He has one of the best arms in all of baseball," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said earlier this offseason. "The fact that he's left-handed makes him more special and separates him even more. He's the kind of pitcher we all envision."

seems like KC got a good deal here...Duffy could have received a lot more on the open market.