[mlb]

Not a huge fantasy guy, but really like this thread. Down to 1 league this year but have came up profit the last 5 years in this one.

[stevenash]

^
Thanks for reading.

Jon Lester (SP - CHC) - Coming off one of the best years of his career, Lester entered free agency at an opportune time. Proving that his "chicken and beer" antics are a thing of the past, Lester pitched with a chip on his shoulder for most of the season last year with the Red Sox. Lester approached the strikeout rate he showed early in his career (24.9%) and he also boasted the lowest walk rate of his career (5.4%), walking just under 2 batters per 9 innings. Lester's improvements to his swinging strike rate (9.9%), chase rate (32.6%) and contact rate (78.6%) ranked him better than league average in all three categories and were large drivers to his nice strikeout improvements. The move to the NL allows him to see slightly worse competition but the NL Central has a good chance to be the best division in the National League and there's not much park improvement moving from cozy Fenway to windy Wrigley. Compounding this was his abnormally low HR/FB ratio from a year ago at just 7.2% while the league average sits closer to 10%. While that's a difference of just 6 flyballs leaving the park, consider that 6 additional earned runs would have raised his ERA 24 points, from 2.46 to 2.70. That's also assuming all these additional homeruns were solo shots meaning the effect to his ERA would likely be even more significant. The Cubs are thirsty for a leader and Lester fits that bill. If he embraces the situation in his first year reunited with his former bosses, he can put together another quality year similar to his final year in Boston. Unfortunately, the Cubs are probably still a year or two away from being serious contenders so his overall ceiling is somewhat limited in 2015.


Dexter Fowler (OF - CHC) - In a (somewhat) surprising move, the Cubs acquired outfielder Dexter Fowler from the Houston Astros this winter. The former top prospect has been plagued with injuries throughout his career and this move by the Cubs mirrors moves they have made recently by taking fliers on talented but injury-prone players (think Justin Ruggiano, Jason Hammel, Arodys Vizcaino, etc). It's a rather low-risk decision by the team and Fowler will fit in quite nicely on a Cubs team that struggles to find players to get on base at the top of the batting order. If all the pieces fall in the right way, Fowler could be the table-setter for one of the more dangerous middle-of-the-orders in the National League (think Rizzo-Bryant-Soler in the 3-4-5 holes). It remains to be seen the type of style Joe Maddon will employ this year but Fowler has decent splits from both sides of the plate (he's better against lefties but a .341 wOBA against righties will help him avoid being platooned) and Maddon has never been a stranger to the stolen base. Fowler has had double-digit stolen bases in 6 straight seasons and has had seasons with 27 and 19 steals apiece. If he can regain his threat on the base paths and the Cubs prospects develop as projected, Fowler will be a nice source of speed and runs late in drafts this spring.


Can the Padres' New Outfielders Allow Them To Challenge The Dodgers?
New Padres GM AJ Preller wasted little time putting his touch on the San Diego Padres. Over the course of several weeks, Preller executed several trades that revamped his outfield by bringing in Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers. The moves bring much needed fire-power to the middle of the Padres batting order but will it be enough to keep up with the free-spending Dodgers?


Matt Kemp (OF - SD) - Injuries, injuries, injuries have been the driving force behind Kemp's fall from stardom the last several years. However, Kemp's really strong second half performance has brought on optimism that a change of scenery might serve him well. In 64 games after the all-star break last year, Kemp hit 17 HRs, 54 RBIs and slashed a cool .309/.365/.606. While these numbers look great on the surface, it was fueled by a ridiculous 26.2% homerun-to-flyball ratio that will almost certainly come back down closer to his career average of 16.5%. The good news was a healthy 27% line drive rate in the first half and an equally impressive 24% rate in the second half. Both numbers more than support the .345 BABIP he posted (which was actually 6 points lower than his career levels for that stat). Lower body injuries have robbed Kemp owners from the stolen bases he used to get but there's definitely some opportunity for nice batting average and above average power from the outfielder this year. Just don't extrapolate his 17 homeruns over a full season and expect to get 34 dingers from an oft-injured 30 year-old playing in Petco Park.


Wil Myers (OF - SD) - After posting nearly identical strikeout and walk rates, Myers saw his BABIP sharply drop from .362 in 2013 to just .286 in 2014, largely brought on by a lackluster 15% line drive rate in 2014. Wrist injuries are historic for zapping a player's power numbers so it's not surprising his HR/FB ratio was just 2.9% when he returned in August. He has now had several months to rest and rehab so we'll hopefully see Myers regain his wrist strength this spring training. Tread carefully in drafts that take place before exhibition games begin, but if he looks fully healthy in early spring training, there's no reason to discount him just because he's now playing in San Diego. He remains of the best young pure power hitters in the game.


Can The Royals Repeat?
The Royals took the baseball world on a wild ride last October. After losing their ace, Kansas City will need Yordano Ventura to take another step forward to fill the void left by James Shields. It's also make-it or break-it time for many of the Royals younger players, including Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. With a re-vamped White Sox team and a great young pitching staff in Cleveland, the Royals have more competition than just the Tigers if they want to return to the World Series this year.


Yordano Ventura (SP - KC) - With one of the fastest fastballs among starting pitchers in the majors, you'd expect Yordano Ventura to post a strikeout rate better than league average. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate came in at 20.3%, just under the league average of 20.4%. While his fastball is certainly his best pitch, his downfall comes because he lacks secondary pitches that fool hitters. As a result, he throws his fastball 65% of the time, allowing batters to sit back and wait for him to throw it. Further causing him issues is his tendency to throw the pitch too straight and without but life at the end. As long as hitters can catch up with the heat, and most all major league hitters can, they will eventually burn Ventura. On the positive side, he does boast a 10 MPH difference between his fastball and change--up so if he can further refine his change, there's definitely upside to his current talents. To me, he doesn't look like he has the stuff to be a dominant ace but he has the talent to be a solid SP-2 or SP-3 on your fantasy team.


Eric Hosmer (1B - KC) - Despite a few nice performances in the post-season, Eric Hosmer ended up being on the most disappointing Royals in 2014. It's becoming evident that Hosmer lacks the true power that is needed to be considered among the league's power hitters and his awful 51.8% career groundball rate is doing nothing to change this fact. After posting a promising .172 ISO in his rookie year, Hosmer has failed to exceed .150 in any season since. His home ballpark does him no favors but a middle-of-the-order hitter cannot hit ground balls over half the time if he expects to drive in runs. His low 6.8% HR/FB rate from 2014 suggests there may be upside to his totals from 2014, but no longer can he be considered a candidate to surpass 20 homeruns at a first base position that is typically a key source of power for fantasy owners.


Josh Hamilton (OF - LAA) - News came out on Friday that Josh Hamilton would might actually be out for 12 weeks, which is nearly 4 weeks longer than what was originally estimated as he recovers from surgery on his AC shoulder joint. It's a big blow to his fantasy value because the entire first month of action is now in serious question. Since signing with the Angels, Hamilton hasn't been the same type of producer as he was with the Rangers. Most notably, Hamilton's batting average has plummeted to .250 and .263 the last two years, respectively. Typically, one would point to the terribly high chase rates (41.2% and 40.7%) or the extremely poor swinging strike rates (16.2% and 18.9%) but that has been Josh Hamilton his entire career. The only logical explanation that one can make for Hamilton is just that he hasn't been able to hit the ball quite as hard as he once did. His HR/FB ratios have plummeted the last two years and his batted ball speed on his homeruns have dropped from 105.9 in 2012 to 102.2 in 2013 and all the way down to 100.8 in 2014. At 33 years old, Hamilton is reaching the end of his useful life as a fantasy player and needs to be treated with kid gloves for the rest of his career. All signs point to danger ahead.


Mookie Betts (OF - BOS) - The Mookie Betts fever may finally be going down. Red Sox Manager John Farrell was quoted on Friday saying that the starting Right Field job will be Shane Victorino's as long as he's healthy enough to play. The youngster's stock has been sky-rocketing over the last several weeks after there was speculation that he would be the Red Sox starting right fielder with fellow rookie Rusney Castillo drawings starts in centerfield. It now looks like Betts will be challenging Castillo for playing time this spring with the possibility of also beginning the year in Double-A. If you are already a Betts owner, don't fret. With both Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino starting in the outfield, it's only a matter of time before one of them gets hurt. Betts cruised through the minor leagues in 2014 before getting promoted and flashing the same skills that made him excel in the minors - getting on base and stealing bases. Through 52 games, Betts managed a solid slash of .291/.368/.444 with 7 steals. He also showed some nice pop from a guy with his small frame, posting an ISO of .153 with 5 HRs and 12 doubles. With Rusney Castillo being considered a more polished player, it'll be unlikely that Betts will beat him out for the centerfield job out of camp. That leaves him without a job and takes a significant amount of luster out of his shine. He's a nice prospect but he was probably being a bit over-drafted in the 12^th round anyway.


Jordan Walden (RP - STL) - The Cardinals brought in former closer Jordan Walden to set-up for inconsistent closer Trevor Rosenthal. After struggling with his command for most of the year, St. Louis decided to sign a true back-up as insurance going into 2015. When he's healthy, Jordan Walden can be very good, touching the upper 90's with his fastball and then slowing things down with a change-up and slider that are each about 10 MPH slower than his four-seamer. Walden's 14.3% swinging strike rate was one of the highest in the in the league last year and his 69% contact rate was even more impressive. Health is always a concern with Jordan but he has the skillset to succeed in the closing role should Rosenthal stumble again this year. He's a great stash in save-only leagues and a must-own in leagues that track holds.


Dylan Bundy (SP - BAL) - Hey, remember him? Bundy underwent Tommy John surgery on June 27, 2013 to repair a tear in his UCL. Now 19 months removed from surgery, Bundy is an intriguing name to remember late in drafts as he gets overlooked by many owners chasing the hot, new prospects. Bundy returned to the mound late last year and predictably struggled with his control. It's not uncommon for pitchers to have difficulty commanding the strikezone when they first return after undergoing TMJ, especially when they return prior to having 18 months of recovery time. The good news is that Manager Buck Showalter said Bundy will have not restrictions in Spring Training and he left the door open for the possibility of Bundy competing for a rotation spot. Pre-surgery, Bundy had a low-to-mid 90's fastball that he primarily used while occasionally mixing in a very good cutter and a change-up. He was known for his high strikeout ability and above average command of the strikezone. It's likely he'll begin the year in the minors but he's probably not far from returning to the major leagues and is a must stash in all keeper formats.


Gregory Polanco (OF - PIT) - Totally flying under the radar this spring has been Gregory Polanco. Despite struggling mightily in half a season with the Pirates last year, Pittsburgh dealt fellow right fielder, Travis Snider, this offseason. This creates a nice opportunity for Polanco in the starting line-up every day to prove that he's the type of player we saw in the minor leagues and not the player he was at the major league level. Polanco suffered from bad luck on balls in play last season, posted just a .272 BABIP while managing a 19% line drive rate. With this line drive rate, I'd expect his BABIP to be closer to .310, although his 50% groundball rate does naturally drag down the balls in play average. Regardless, I was still impressed with his approach at the plate, managing a respectable 18.9% strikeout rate and strong 9.6% walk rate in his first year. Growth and maturity will be needed, however, especially when it comes to handling the basepaths. Polanco was caught stealing in 5 of his 19 total attempts at the major league level last year but his minor league track record has been plagued with poor steal percentages. He'll probably hit in the bottom half of the Pirates batting order until he can prove that he's the player who everyone expected him to be, not who he was in 2014.


Robinson Cano (2B - SEA) -Is Robinson Cano still worth a second round pick? It's no secret that the 32 year old Cano is trending downward on his career but just how significant has it been? Two years of declining home run totals is supported by batted ball speed on his homeruns provided by ESPN. Since 2012, Cano has seen his batted ball speed drop from 104.3 to 103.8 to just 101.2 last year. Many people point fingers and say the drop in homeruns is all home stadium driven. That's 100% not the case. Cano would have actually have 1 fewer homerun had he been playing in Yankee Stadium than he had playing in Safeco when overlaying Yankee Stadium over his 2014 homerun spray chart. Outside of the power dipping, Cano is also hitting far more ground balls. Lower batted ball speed and more ground balls is never a good combination for a hitter. His approach at the plate looks largely unchanged and he remains one of the most dependable players in the game. Unfortunately, all good careers have to come to an end and with little power upside and almost no speed upside, it's difficult to recommend him as a viable option in the second round.


Danny Salazar (SP - CLE) - A year ago, Danny Salazar was the buzzword in almost any fantasy baseball draft. After getting off to a brutal start and being sent down, Salazar returned in the second half and put up a performance reminiscent of his 2013 stats. Fortunately for value seekers, his breakout came later in the season and his full year stats don't look too impressive. That's great news for you because Salazar still possesses a 95 MPH fastball with pinpoint control and the raw skills to be an ace atop the rotation. So why isn't he owned right now? Salazar's line drive and groundball splits were brutal last year, giving up line drives 24% of the time and groundballs only 34% of the time. Opposing hitters obviously have higher batting averages on line drives than groundballs so ideally we'd like to see the line drive rate as low as possible. Going in the 20^th round of drafts at the moment, Salazar offers huge profit potential especially in the area of strikeouts.


Mike Fiers (SP - MIL) - Another type of arm I like to target in the pre-season are those players who came up late in the year and performed extraordinarily well in the short sample size. There's a lot to like about Fiers, beginning with his super solid 21.5% K%-BB% ratio. He also took another step forward in 2015 by increasing the number of flyballs he had given up and conversely reduced the amount of line drives. While this might just sound like the case of a small sample size, it's important to remember that Mike Fiers has done this in the past and could do it again. Fiers came up in 2012 as a fill-in starter and performed tremendously well. Now that Gallardo has been traded, Fiers has a great shot at getting his own rotation spot from the beginning of the season to the end.


Michael Wacha (SP - STL) - All indications are that Michael Wacha is fully recovered from the shoulder injury that plagued him last year. Pre-draft last season, Wacha was easily going in the top-100 players off the board. Now with the injury concerns, he has fallen closer to the top 150 players. Wacha's biggest attribute is his ability to limit baserunners, which consequently limits runs allowed. As Anthony Perri pointed out in our player software, Wacha didn't have a WHIP above 1.00 in any of his minor league stops. The most attractive thing to me about Wacha is his low walk rate but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get back closer to a strikeout rate around 25% this coming season, similar to his rookie year. His underlying indicators that I look at for strikeout rate are all in line with his rookie year - chase rate, swinging strike rate, contact rate, velocity. This gives me hope and optimism that he will be able to return top 10 round value from well within the middle rounds of the draft this season.


Homer Bailey (SP - CIN) - Back in September, Homer Bailey had surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his forearm. It sounds scary and a recent news report stated that he's a little behind on the recovery. Even if he misses the first few weeks of the season, Bailey is a tremendous value in the 19^th round, his current ADP at the moment. It's hard for me to believe that Homer Bailey is still just 28 years old. It seems like we've been hearing about him forever but he developed slower than most, but has shown steady improvement over the last several years. In fact, I love the fact that he has had a steadily increasing fastball velocity while his walk rate has remained steady around 6-7%. I also believe there's upside to his strikeout rate when taking into account his 11% swinging strike rate and chase rates between 32% and 35% the last two years. Both indicator stats are better than league average yet, his 20.5% strikeout rate is still below league average. I'd expect to see this changed this year and he's a nice flier to reach for late in drafts.

[stevenash]

BREWERS | JONATHAN LUCROY EXPECTED TO BE READY

Update: Milwaukee Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy (hamstring) is expected to be ready for opening day, the team believes.

Any time missed by Lucroy is likely to accrue to backup backstop Martin Maldonado. Lucroy could see more 1B action than in 2014, when he made 19 1B appearances. Lucroy's rock-solid hitting skills include three straight seasons of 85%+ ct%, 130+ HctX and 125+ xPX, so MIL is likely to keep him in the lineup as much as possible. Maldonado's 2014 small-sample (111 ABs) power spike, reflected in his career-best 119 PX and 46% FB%, mark him a potential sleeper in deep league formats. His subpar xBA and HctX suggest limits to his upside.

ORIOLES | EVERTH CABRERA AGREES WITH O'S

Free-agent SS Everth Cabrera (Padres) reached an agreement with the Baltimore Orioles on a one-year deal. However, executive vice president Dan Duquette said the deal may not be finalized this week.

This announced on the same day that middle infield playing time contender Paul Janish will undergo bone chip removal surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. That removes Janish's relevance for the spring training competition, but Cabrera's skill set (particularly his speed), changes the dynamics of the battle with Jonathan Schoop and Ryan Flaherty for the 2B and utility infield slots. (J.J. Hardy is locked in at SS after signing a three year contract extension.) The switch-hitting Cabrera brings a 123 SPD rating to the party, which could be a fit at the top of the BAL lineup, especially if he can return to his 2012-13 .300+ OBA. The RH-batting Schoop (104 PX, .237 XBA) and LH-batting Flaherty (104 PX, .243 XBA) offer similar power profiles, but Schoop is the incumbent, while Flaherty may be best suited for the utility role, as he reached 20 game eligibility at 2B, SS, and 3B during 2014. BAL is also noted for valuing defense, and Schoop is seen as slightly above average defensively, while Cabrera ranks slightly below average. This will be a competition to watch during spring training, and update playing time projections accordingly.

MARINERS | RICKIE WEEKS AGREES WITH SEATTLE
Free-agent 2B Rickie Weeks (Brewers) agreed to a one-year deal with the Seattle Mariners Thursday, Feb. 12. Weeks' deal is a major league deal worth around $2 million with $2 million in incentives. He's expected to play left field, right field and second base. ]

Besides spot duty, Weeks figures to join Justin Ruggiano as right-handed platoon partners for corner OFs Dustin Ackley and Seth Smith. It's a good use of Weeks' talents, as he has typically handled lefties much better than righties over his career in average (.261 vs. LHP, .244 vs. RHP), BB% (11% / 7%) and power (131 PX / 119 PX). Platooning won't help his counting stats, but look for a rate-stat boost. He'll also be in line to fill in for Ackley, Smith, and certainly Robinson Cano in case of an injury.

[MexicanStallion]

It won't hurt to have this thread around with the the Big 2015 Thread up too. Love fantasy baseball.

[Ebe]

Two words

Madison Bumgarner

[stevenash]

Two words

Madison Bumgarner

6th best starting pitcher in MLB.

[Ebe]

Best postseason pitcher in MLB History

[stevenash]

Best postseason pitcher in MLB History

Mariano Rivera is.
Don't argue baseball with me, I am SBR's premiere baseball expert.
I'm going to bed.

[Ebe]

If you are an MLB expert you would know Madbum is

I will take you to town on MLB anytime you want

[stevenash]

^
Ok, whatever, you win, you're the best.
Good night.

[Ebe]

3 rings

look at his stats

Maybe you didnt see what he did in game 7 on 2 days rest

[Ebe]

And hes just 25 years old

Goodnight

[stevenash]

How many rings does Rivera have?
But, whatever.

[Ebe]

I would definitely agree Rivera is the best postseason reliever of all time

MadBum is the best starter though

[Wrigley]

I would definitely agree Rivera is the best postseason reliever of all time

not even close whos second

[Chi_archie]

I don't think fowler will do well in Chicago

[mpaschal34]

good thread nash....keep up the good work

[stevenash]

I don't think fowler will do well in Chicago

Fowler will not progress or regress.
This is how I see Fowler's 2015 season.

.270 BA
.375 OBA (he is a very good on base guy)
12 HR
55 - 60 RBI
65 R
15 SB

ZIPS (Steamer) has his numbers a little lower, but ZIPS projections are always a little low

[stevenash]

ADP is Average Draft Position
Or simply put, at what number in the draft each player is selected



Kris Bryant (current ADP 103)
Geez, can the ADP actually go higher?? Bryant is being drafted as if he will be manning the hot corner on Opening Day. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely. Still, he can hit. That's for certain. He should get plenty of spring chances with the Cubs and if the team surprises us by giving him the nod for the start of 2015, just watch the ADP number shrink.
ADP if all goes right - Near 80


Allen Craig (316)
Craig doesn't have health. He doesn't have a position. And, he doesn't have anything to feel good about from 2014. After back-to-back 90+ RBI seasons, Craig crashed-and-burned in 2015. Boston really wants to make use of him and if he does stay upright and he shows off anything resembling his former self, he'll see at-bats. Unlike many others on this list, Craig has proven he can power a fantasy team when he is going right. If he's going right entering April, you'll see his ADP up around 225 entering the year.
ADP if all goes right - 240


Tim Lincecum (453)
Fantasy owners will look for any excuse to draft Lincecum. A good spring would give them a very easy excuse. The Giants are giving him another go of it in their 5-man. His K/9 dumped all the way down to 7.7 a year ago and, at this point, his control has been gone for three full seasons. Mechanically, he must get things straightened out. There are all sorts of pre-camp musings about his 're-commitment to the game' and the re-tuning of his motion with his father this offseason. It's tough for me to buy any of it. I know, though, that there will be a load of late-March fantasy buyers if he's dialed in this spring.
ADP if all goes right - 380


Carlos Martinez (295)
Martinez arrives at camp as the de facto, 5th starter in the Cardinals' rotation. He'll have some competition from both Jaime Garcia and Marco Gonzalez, but the team has practically promised him the job as long as he doesn't completely fall flat. Here's a pitcher with all the tools, but he still has to learn how to use them, when to use them, and where to use them. A string of solid starts down in Florida will manage to turn heads and could cause a noticeable lift in his ADP. Frankly, sitting near 300, right now, is very low for a guy with this much skill and a mostly-set role.
ADP if all goes right - 255


Dalton Pompey (269)
There's a little bit of a hum behind Pompey as we near March. Toronto just needs to see that their young centerfielder can match up against MLB-level pitching. If he struggles to an average under-.220, you're not going to see him too often. In a perfect world, he could become someone similar to Adam Eaton or Kole Calhoun. That perfect world won't be in 2015, but Pompey can craft a little more ADP love with a good first impression to fantasy players in the spring.
ADP if all goes right - 230


Alex Rodriguez (337)
All it's going to take to push A-Rod into the top 250 is a reminder of what used to make him so special. If he comes to Florida and pops four or five balls over the wall, you'll see a large portion of fantasy owners clamoring to get him as their starting 3B. Right now, he is the 26th 3B off the board ... barely ahead of Luis Valbuena! Currently, the Yanks have a logjam of DH-types on their roster. But, if Rodriguez is hitting, they won't be able to ignore him. His spring will have a MAJOR effect on his ADP - probably more than any other player in baseball.
ADP if all goes right - 240


Wilin Rosario (142)
Talk about an unsettled situation. Rosario was seen as a centerpiece to the Colorado offense exactly 12 months ago. Now, he doesn't have a position. His defense behind the dish has always been atrocious. Justin Morneau is in his way at first. And, even when Carlos Gonzalez comes up gimpy, no one wants to experience Rosario's bumble bee act in the outfield. Still, if hits and hits in spring, they will force him into the daily lineup. There's another shoe that could drop here, too ... he could be traded to a team that has an opening for him. But, let's be honest, even with a better grip on playing time, Rosario's ADP would fall with no Coors effect to boost his bat. His career OPS is a close to 200 points higher at home versus the other 29 major league stadiums.
ADP if all goes right - 125


Ryan Rua (545)
Power plays in today's game. Many will accept a .230 batting average if you bring the threat of sending a baseball 400 feet away with every swing. Rua has that kind of profile. Whispers out of the Texas front office have indicated that the team is really hoping Rua wins the LF job. He's never going to get a Gold Glove vote, but again, the power is what interests. His current ADP means he's going undrafted in a vast majority of leagues. He could rise all the way to bench-level in 12-team leagues with a notable spring and the presumed starting spot that would follow.
ADP if all goes right - 400


Yasmany Tomas (147)
The unknown will become (slightly more) known by the end of March. Fantasy players love power and if Tomas shows any of it in camp, he'll creep up 30-40 spots from his current perch. The Diamondbacks want to have him at 3B, but if his mitt doesn't hold up there, he could land many starts in the Arizona outfield. Thus, we'd have infield-outfield eligibility from a clubber who can net you 20+ homers. I consider the third base spot to be fairly deep. For me, Tomas is in a very thick 3rd-tier of guys at the position. I will be much more willing to draft a proven guy over the 'what-if?' of Tomas.
ADP if all goes right - 125


Mark Trumbo (93)
Tomas' teammate just needs to remind all of us of what he can be. There was all sorts of interest in him a year ago as he arrived in Phoenix after a trade out of Anaheim. He slugged seven home runs in his first 21 games, but then went down for nearly three months with broken heel. Nothing worked when he got back to playing, either. If you cornered me, asking whom is the 35 home run bat that no one is discussing, my answer would be Trumbo.
ADP if all goes right - 75


Jung-ho Kang (304)
Pittsburgh's shortstop is in nearly the same situation as Tomas. We just have to see something with our eyes. The Korean numbers he posted were insane (a .356 batting average with 40 HRs in 117 games!), be we know that they won't make the trip across the Pacific. Kang has an opportunity to create excitement because the collection of shortstops in MLB is very uninspiring. Understand that he must win a job in Pirates' camp, but if that happens, you can bet Kang will surge within his position.
ADP if all goes right - 260


Rafael Soriano (335), Francisco Rodriguez (204)
I'm putting these two together because they are in the exact same situation. They're both looking for a gig as camps fire up and if it eventually comes in the right place, they could jump 75 spots in the span of a day. The 'right place' is not with the L-A Dodgers. The fact that Kenley Jansen is supposed to be back in May means that either Soriano or K-Rod would just be a placeholder. They're aiming for more. If we see a major injury to a closer in the next monthand we see a desperate team pay a hefty price for one of these two, then this number adjusts. If those things don't happen, these ADPs won't budge ... in fact, they'll go in reverse.
ADP if all goes right - 300 for Soriano and 170 for Rodriguez

[Ebe]

Nash a beast.

[stevenash]

Braves Final Rotation Spot- On a team littered with potential position battles and platoons set to be decided this spring, the Braves rotation seems pretty well set in stone with the top four pitchers. The fifth starter battle could be interesting though as a top prospect, a form top prospect, and a wily veteran will be set to fight for the final spot. The newly acquired Mike Foltynewicz is probably the most enticing fantasy option among the three and that mainly stems from his career 7.65 K/9 numbers through the minors, and he struck out 14 in 16.2 innings in his brief call-up with the Astros last September. He also has the best pure stuff of the group, so Roger McDowell will look to harness Folty's potential on the mound. Candidate number two is Manny Banuelos, the former top prospect of the New York Yankees. It seems like forever ago that Man-Ban was one of the top prospects in baseball but Tommy John Surgery will do that to a player. He also has intrigue in his strikeout potential (9.00 K/9), but there are mixed reports on how well he threw coming back from the surgery so he'll need to be watched closely this spring. Now, I wouldn't even bring up Wandy Rodriguez normally, but the Braves got through as whole season of Aaron Harang being serviceable so I guess I will... Rodriguez signed with Atlanta after 18 starts combined over the last two seasons with Pittsburgh, 12 of which in 2013 he was serviceable (4.42 FIP, in 62.2 innings) and the final 6 last year were miserable (7.41 FIP, 25.6% HR/FB). If he does win the job (I'd give him the second best odds behind Folty) he's not worth owning at all while the other two could be NL-only or DEEP mixed league adds.


What's on Second? - Another position up for grabs in the Braves lineup is second with Jace Peterson, Alberto Callaspo, and Jose Peraza battling for the opening day start. Peterson, acquired in the Justin Upton trade, got a brief taste of the majors in 2014 and struggled mightily posting a .123 wOBA while striking out in 31% of his at-bats. His career minor league wOBA though is .357 so there is some room for optimism, especially when he was triple slashing .306/.406/.464 before his callup, so it's obvious he was overmatched at the major league level. Fantasy wise, at best he'd be nothing more than an empty AVG/OBP player with limited upside, even if he were to hit atop the Braves lineup. Callaspo is the favorite to win the job, and is probably the least enticing fantasy option of the bunch. He does have double digit power, but those came in seasons where he played over 135 games and I don't think he plays that many in 2015. Although he was playing in the O.co Coliseum, slugging .290 with a .067 ISO in 127 games is just plain bad. Peraza is the second baseman of the future and is by far the most intriguing fantasy option with his 40+ stolen base potential over a full season. Fredi Gonzalez has already called Peraza's chances a "long shot," but we will see his debut at some point in 2015. He has little to no power, but he puts the ball in play and can run which is the identity Atlanta is creating based on their offseason moves.
Houston Astros


Hank Conger, Bleh - The Astros have a few catchers in the mix the spring with Hank Conger being the favorite to win the job, which doesn't mean much for fantasy players. For a guy that raked all through the minors Conger has done the exact opposite in the majors with a career 84 wRC and that is reflected in his Fantistic's projection of being the, wait for it, 48th ranked catcher while one of his competitors, Jason Castro, is projected to finish better than him over a full season as the 20th best catcher. If Castro has all the upside, then why is Conger the favorite to get the starting nod? Defense and pitch framing. Which helps no one. Maybe with a strong spring Castro can snatch the job, but if he doesn't he's not a fantasy option as the Evan Gattis acquisition takes away the DH fall back spot for Castro.


Chris Carter, The Cheapest 40 Homers Money Can Buy? - Chris Carter is among the most powerful men in the game, but he has the most holes in his swing this side of Javier Baez. 2014 was a tale of two seasons for Carter posting a first half triple of slash of .205/.281/.465 (109 wRC) with 19 homeruns before erupting over the second half with a .252/.338/.521 slash (138 wRC) and 18 homeruns. The moral of the story is that average be darned Carter is going to hit homers with 31 being projected by Fantistics. Right now, he's projected to finish sandwhiched between Kevin Frandsen and Joc Pederson at 54th overall among outfielders, but he's being taken with other high upside players like Jorge Soler and Gregory Polanco in the 13th round. The program puts an auction value on him of just $1, and I'd take that every single draft while filling out my outfield.


Cleveland Indians


Can Kipnis return to top of position form? - After back to back seasons of 15HR/30SB seasons, Kipnis turned in a terrible 2014 with his wRC crashing down for 129 to 86. As the Fantstic's software notes, Kipnis was plagued by an oblique injury all year which had a large impact in his ability to effectively swing. Last year, in ESPN leagues Kipnis was on average taken with the 22nd pick in the draft but finished as the 16th ranked second baseman which is devastating for owners at such a top heavy position. Also from the software notes, Kipnis' HR/FB rate plummeted despite an increase in AVG homerun distance and batted ball speed making him an excellent bounce back candidate to return to top five form at the position.


Consensus Breakout Candidate: Carlos Carrasco - My full time job allows me to listen to many baseball podcasts during work and one name that has consistently came up as a player that analysts "love" and are predicting to breakout in his full time starting spot in 2015. Fantstic's is right there with the other groups in the industry and we are tabbing Carrasco as the 17th best pitcher this year. In 91.0 innings as a starter he owned a 2.54 FIP while striking out a ridiculous 28% of the batters he faced, a number typically held by a reliever. Keeping the ball in the yard helped Carrasco, posting a career low 6.2% as a starter. While he's unlikely to dip lower than that, as it's just unsustainable, that's one trending stat for him that has been steadily declining while he's been in the majors. Based on Fantistic's fantasy ADP, Carrasco is going in the same round as Gio Gonzalez (12th) which is just two rounds higher than Masahiro Tanaka and Yordano Ventura in the 14th.


Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles - Great news for the Orioles, fantasy owners, and baseball fans in general came Tuesday as Manny Machado received the all clear and will have no restrictions this spring. Machado is one player I'm absolutely targeting this season, even with the concerns of his health being extremely valid. His ADP currently is in the 15th round on Fantistics, one round behind Matt Carpenter, and a full six rounds behind Josh Harrison and I would take Machado over both. Last season in just 82 games he hit 12 homers compared to hitting just 14 in all of 2013. It appears that some of those 51 doubles from 2013 are now clearing the fence as he continues to grow and get stronger. Remember, Machado turns 23 midway through the season so there's much more room for growth.


Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals' ace is heading to St. Louis to get his abdominal area looked at as he has been feeling some discomfort. Cardinals' brass already has said that they will limit his innings this spring as he has thrown over 200 innings in four of the last five seasons and in that fifth season he threw 198.2 innings. Wainwright was still great in the second half, but after he grooved one for Jeter at Target Field he had a down season. His FIP jumped almost a full run over the second half of the season and his K% dropped by nearly 5%, which is a calling card of Waino's. Fantistics has no worries about Wainwright though, ranking him as the 11th best starting option for 2015.


Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies - Giles was dominant in 45.2 innings last fall, and has already gotten lofty Craig Kimbrel comparisons thrown on him because of it. Although, when you strike out 12 per nine and have a devastating repertoire those comparisons aren't all extreme despite Kimbrel being among the game's best for a few years now. The Phillies are trying to move Jonathan Papelbon, and Giles is a very large reason because of that. He can come in and provide exactly what Papelbon can (or even more) for the league minimum salary instead of over $10 million per year. Fangraphs has Giles projected for just under 12 strikeouts per nine and a 2.93 FIP and if the Phillies are able to deal Papelbon his save numbers will jump as well. He's worth owning in NL Leagues now just because of his strikeout potential, and if you're in a holds league he becomes even more valuable.


Joba Chamberlain, Detroit Tigers - Chamberlain resigned with the Tigers Tuesday and will fit into the bullpen situation once again. Although Joakim Beniot is likely next in line if closer Joe Nathan were to falter Joba could get into the mix if he can pitch like he did in the first half of the season. His ERA jumped from 2.63 in the first half to almost 5.00 after the All-Star Break. His FIP correlates well on both ends that he actually was that good at one point and that bad at the other, as his ERA indicates. He's not fantasy relevant in any leagues now and it would take some serious bullpen implosion for him to get any consistent saves opportunities.


Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers outfield situation basically boils down to that Andre Either wants to start or be traded. LA has a surplus of outfield talent with Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, and Either all fighting for three spots. With Crawford being penciled in for the leadoff spot after the Dee Gordon trade there remains one true centerfielder, Pederson, fighting for his spot against two corner outfielders in Puig and Ethier. So, if Pederson wins the centerfield job we have Puig vs. Ethier for the last spot and that competition isn't even close. I'd like to think that Friedman will be able to work out a deal for Ethier like he did with Matt Kemp in order to resolve the issue at hand.


Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Another day passes and Cole Hamels is still a Phillie, and it doesn't appear that anything is going to change that in the near-near future. Ruben Amaro wants a ransom for Hamels because he knows that he has to hit this trade with the overall lack of talent that is in the Phillies organization as a whole, not just the majors. The Red Sox have more available with the signing of Yoan Moncada, but it still seems unlikely that they are willing to part with either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart. That is despite the overabundance of young major league ready talent at hand, especially in the outfield. Hamels' is a good value in fantasy, but he really needs a change of scenery in order to be a fantasy ace like we have been accustomed to seeing.


Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs - Bryant is going to be playing outfield for the Cubs this spring in addition to getting work at third base for the club. His situation will be one to monitor this spring as it's still unsure when we will see him debut in majors despite visually being ready for the league. We all know Bryant by this point and know the kind of power potential that he possesses, but the swing and miss concerns are still there for such a can't miss prospect. He's struck out in nearly a fourth of all his minor league at bats, but like George Springer, albeit Bryant having much better contact skills, he puts the ball in play with such force that he is able to offset the swing and miss issue. His draft status is hard to pinpoint, as he is going currently in the 11th round where you could get some better value maybe a round or two later if he is still there, or by selecting another third base option.


Brandon Beachy, Los Angeles Dodgers - Beachy signed on with the Dodgers as he continues his rehab from his second Tommy John surgery and being non-tendered by Atlanta this winter. Beachy has been throwing at about a distance of around 90-100 feet but has yet to throw off the mound yet in his recovery. For the Dodgers they are able to let Beachy take his time to get back to full strength owing him just under $3 million for this upcoming season. He could be an interesting second half option as in his best year with Atlanta, 2011, he recorded over ten strikeouts per nine and had an xFIP of only 3.16.


James Paxton, Seattle Mariners - James Paxton is a trendy sleeper for 2015 coming off of his performance down the stretch in 2014. He finished the year 6-4 with a 3.04 ERA (3.24 FIP) and with his skillset there's much optimism that he'll be as good as those numbers indicate in 2015. This difference between this year and last is that he has a full time spot in the rotation unlike last season where he had to compete for his starts. Fantistics projects him with 12 wins and a 3.50 ERA and I'd take the over on wins and under on ERA as some of his plate discipline peripherals took a drop last year that I think can rebound slightly to make him even better.


Dustin McGowan, Los Angeles Dodgers - In order to help provide some bullpen depth with the loss of Kenley Jensen the Dodgers took a flier on Dustin McGowan for a one year deal. McGowan was pretty terrible out of the Jays bullpen last year and he likely won't have any sort of high leverage role in the Dodgers pen. He'll more than likely have to pitch for his job once the pen gets back more towards full strength.

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Nick Castellanos (3B-DET). Castellanos failed to live up to his prospect hype in 2014, as he posted a somewhat disappointing .259/.306/.394 slash line, with 11 HR and 66 RBI. Castellanos remains an intriguing fantasy option for 2015, however, as with another year of growth, I would expect him to improve on his mediocre 2014 numbers. Castellanos hits line drives at an elite 28.5% rate and if he could improve on his .26 batting EYE, that line drive rate should lead to improvement in his batting average. Additional physical maturation should also result in an improvement in Castellanos' HR/FB from the 2014 rate of 7.5% to at least the league average of around 10%. Given that expected improvement, I would be comfortable taking Castellanos as an endgame corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues and I will be actively targeting Castellanos in AL-only leagues.


Jose Iglesias (SS-DET). Iglesias missed the entire 2014 season with stress fractures in both shins, but he is reportedly healthy and ready to take over as the Tigers' starting SS in 2015. However, fantasy owners are advised to look elsewhere for production at shortstop, as Iglesias is one of those players who are much better in real-life baseball than he is for fantasy purposes. In his one almost-full season in the majors, he put up a seemingly-impressive .303/.349/.386 slash line. However, that came with no power and little speed (3 HR and 5 SB in 382 PAs) and the BA was pure good fortune, as it was aided by a .356 BABIP that was not supported by Iglesias' 18.0% LD rate. Couple the foregoing with a .25 EYE and you have a player that will be lucky to hit .260 in 2015 (and in fact our software projects a .262 BA for Iglesias this year). Without the capability to hit .300, Iglesias' lack of power and speed makes him irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Don't be fooled into drafting him by his sexy 2013 numbers.


White Sox - Contenders or Pretenders?
The White Sox underwent an extensive overhaul in the offseason, adding an ace (Samardzija), a closer (Robertson) a first baseman (LaRoche) and an outfielder (Cabrera) to a 4th place club. These additions have led to some pennant fever in Chicago. However, the performances of these three holdovers may have as much or more to do with the team's results in 2015:
Alexei Ramirez (SS-CHA). Ramirez had a solid season in 2014, putting up a .273/.305/.408 line with 15 HR, 74 RBI and 21 SBs, which surprised many observers after a down year in 2013. While you should expect some slippage in the HR and SB categories (particularly the latter, given Ramirez' age), I still expect Ramirez to provide solid value in 2015, as his average should be sustainable (.292 BABIP in 2015, .295 for his career), and his counting stats should be better given the improved lineup around him. Our software projects Ramirez to hit .265, with 12 HR and 19 SBs, which, given the scarcity of talent in this year's SS pool, makes Ramirez a player to target, assuming he can be obtained at a reasonable cost.


Avisail Garcia (OF-CHA). I will admit to having a considerable man-crush on Garcia ever since seeing him in spring training last year. He just LOOKS like a baseball player. Unfortunately, however, appearances have yet to translate into actual fantasy production, due in large part to an injury that cost Garcia most of last season. In 190 PAs in 2014, Garcia hit an underwhelming .244/.305/.413 with 7 HR and he hit the ball on the ground a remarkable 56.2% of the time. However, with an offseason to recover from his shoulder industry, and a vastly improved White Sox lineup surrounding him, we anticipate that Garcia's power numbers will improve. Our software projects Garcia to hit .269 with 21 HR and 81 RBI. Garcia could also prove to be a sneaky source of SBs, as he stole 4 bases in his limited playing time last year and we project him for 9 in 2015, so, with a little luck and growth on Garcia's part, owners could have a 25/10 guy for the cost of a roughly 20th round draft pick (Garcia's current ADP is 225.4, making him an 18th to 22nd round draft choice, depending on league size). I would be more than happy to fill my 5th OF spot with this kind of upside.

[Ebe]

Bumgarner a beast

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Brett Cecil (RP-TOR) - If you're on the lookout for projected non-closers who could become closers by Opening Day, Cecil is one guy to look at. As of now, the role for Aaron Sanchez is TBD at best, as the decision whether to place Sanchez in the rotation or the bullpen won't be made until mid-March. If he is in the bullpen, closer is his most likely role given last year's sparkling 1.09 ERA in 33 innings. Most likely though Sanchez slots in the bullpen, as the Blue Jays have an abundance of rotation options, including promising rookie Daniel Norris, who probably doesn't have a slot even if Sanchez opens in the bullpen. Cecil though is worth keeping an eye on in deeper leagues. He's not a LOOGY by any means, as he was slightly better versus RH hitters last year than LH. His 12.8 K/9 is certainly closer material, and after posting a 5.5 BB/9 prior to the All-Star break, Cecil dropped that number to 3.4 thereafter along with a 1.50 ERA.

Tyler Clippard (RP-OAK) - Take out one ugly September outing and Sean Doolittle's 2.73 ERA drops to 2.02, but regardless, Doolittle was diagnosed in January with a "slight" rotator cuff tear in his pitching shoulder. The team hopes that a PRP injection and a strengthening program will get Doolittle back to 100%, and a report last week showed good improvement, but shoulder injuries are scary. Clippard will probably open as the closer unless Doolittle's recovery accelerates quickly, and who knows, perhaps Clippard keeps the job longer. Last year's numbers would warrant it: 10.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.18 ERA. Matt Harvey (SP-NYM) - Most mock drafts I've seen have Harvey slotting in somewhere in the sixth round in 12-team mixed league drafts, so if you are looking for a potential ace after drafting five hitters, Harvey could be your guy. Sure, there's a risk as he's coming off Tommy John surgery, but let's review those 2013 numbers again - 2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9. Oftentimes with Tommy John surgery, the last thing to come back is a pitcher's control, so keep an eye on that this spring. Harvey is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut on March 6. I'll be watching. Lucas Duda (1B-NYM) - I won't say Duda came completely out of nowhere last year, but 30 home runs and 92 RBI off a .253/.349/.481 slash? That was unexpected. That equates to one home run per 17 at-bats versus a pre-2014 mark of one every 25 at-bats. Duda was in the news this week due to his nursing an intercostal strain. Don't consider it serious unless his absence extends beyond a few days. Duda's BB% dropped from 14.3% to a still-solid 11.6%, but he also cut his K% four percentage points to 22.7%. Duda's 30.6% GB% was third-lowest in the game behind Chris Carter and Brandon Moss, so he gets the ball in the air frequently, and when that happens, good things often result. Duda was once again a liability against LHP (.180/.264/.252), so if he wants to take another step forward, we'll need to see some improvement there. Brandon Morrow (SP-SD) - Morrow and Odrisamer Despaigne are reportedly the top two competitors for the Padres' No. 5 starter job, with Robbie Erlin and Matt Wisler trailing and Josh Johnson (elbow) a possibility sometime in May. Morrow is the riskier of the two, but also is the far more intriguing fantasy option should he win the job. Injuries have derailed his career, but Morrow still has the velocity (94 mph avg FB) last year and his career K/9 is an excellent 9.4. He's allowed nearly a homer per inning in his career, but Petco Park mitigates the effects of his flyballs. Ultimately, Morrow probably winds up either in the bullpen or on the disabled list, but strikeouts are golden in fantasy, so he's worth at least a look if he wins a rotation job.

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Johnny Cueto - Cueto has been outpitching his peripherals since he stepped onto an MLB mound in 2008. This is because of his above average LOB% (81.5 and 82.5% last two years), heavily below average BABIP (.236 and .238) and below average HR/9. Cueto avoids the formula of truth with keeping batters banging it into the ground (46 - 53% GB% since 2011). A closer look to 2014 is that he made the outs when the mattered. With runners in scoring position he kept batters to a low .158 AVG, stymieing the rallies of teams. You have to assume a little regression to 2014 Cueto, but not too much with his historical out pitching of his ERA to FIP. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir has had a roller coaster of a career, and 2014 was a microcosm of it. His first half 2.38 ERA (through 117 1/3 IP) earned him an All-Star appearance after 2 years out of the game. However, coupled with a 0.250 BABIP and 81.9% LOB, regression was soon to follow for the second half. And regression it did. Those peripherals soon turned to 0.333 BABIP and 59.4% LOB, resulting in an unsightly 5.42 ERA (albeit with a more respectable 4.03 xFIP). So it seems he was awfully lucky in the first half, only to be inversely unlucky for the second. This could be due to the wearing down on the season, since he has not pitched more than the 190 innings in 2014 since 2007. It will be interesting to see how the soon to be 32 year old lefty will produce for 2015.

Jose Altuve - Altuve had a monstrous 2014 season, highlighted by 56 steals and winning the MLB batting title at a cool .341 average. Heck, the diminutive 2 bagger even chipped in 7 homers. He can't repeat such gaudy numbers again can he? I'm afraid not. A closer look to his numbers indicates he struck out at a miniscule 7.5% of plate appearances (a dream rate for his fellow Astros Springer, Carter and Singleton). Never in his minor or major league careers has he had below a 7.7% rate (that coming in a small sample size 45 games in Rookie League). Moreover, couple that with a 0.360 BABIP and you will have yourself a career year for average. Now, I'm not saying go ahead and leave him off your draft board for 2015. Speed never goes into slumps, and Altuve has plenty of it. Just hold back expectations of a repeat performance of 2014, and more towards something around 2013 (33 steals, 0.316 BABIP and 0.283 AVG), still highly coveted for the thin 2B position. Draft him as the 2nd or 3rd second baseman off the board. Jansen, Kenley - LAN/RP: Kenley Jansen (RP-LAD) was fitted into a walking boot and will miss at least the month of April. Jansen was projected as one of the best relievers on the board for fantasy leagues, so Mattingly and company will have to get creative to piece it all together for the later innings. If you are hurting for saves, look to a mix of Joel Peralta and J.P. Howell for the early opportunities in Los Angeles. Mat Latos - Latos had a year to forget in 2014. A myriad of injuries in the offseason left him at the starting gates for Opening Day to Early June. His numbers from then on were nothing terrible (3.25 ERA 3.65 FIP 3.99 xFIP), and now he moves to the spacious confines of Marlins Park. Even though his GB% dropped to 37.7% (never below 42% since 2009), I see a bounce back for him in 2015. A declining BB% of 7.8% to 6.2% from 2011 to 2014 represent a further grasp of his mechanics. Of concern is his drop in K/9 from 9.21 in his first full season in 2010 to his 6.51 K/9 in 2014. However, only 27 for Opening Day 2015, he is entering the prime years of his career. With an improved defense behind him (Stanton, Salty and Gordon), he should have a strong season for ERA, WHIP and QS categories for your fantasy squad. And maybe at a bargain, too.

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Wainwright, Adam - StL/P: Adam Wainwright (SP - StL) received good news in St. Louis concerning his abdomen after his test results revealed only a strain. He should be shut down for only 4-5 days before ramping up his progression for Opening Day.

Tanner Roark - Roark is one of those feel good stories of 2014. He broke onto the scene with a sparkling 2.85 ERA (3.47 FIP) for 198 2/3 IP. Nowhere near overpowering (92.7 MPH Sinker, 82 MPH Changeup), Roark relies on his pinpoint control (1.77 BB/9) and deception (62.3% Z-Swing%) to keep hitters off the bases and off-balance. He is an interesting player, in my opinion, in that I believe he can outperform his peripherals. Playing in the weak-hitting NL East (especially with the departures of Jayson Heyward, Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, etc), his below-average 0.270 BABIP can be retained, further buoying his ERA with the low BB/9. The combination of opponent and control is why I still believe in Roark for 2015.
Cabrera, Miguel - Det/1B: Miguel Cabrera (1B - Det) will be brought along slowly to start Spring Training, as expected following offseason ankle surgery. He is currently running on an anti-gravity treadmill, and is approximately a week out from working on the diamond. Monitor Cabrera closely, but it looks like he should be ready for Opening Day.

Kyle Seager - Seager is as steady as they come for fantasy. He seems to defy spacious Safeco Field, consistently producing 20+ HRs since his first full season in 2012. BB% and K% are steadily above average, as are his 7+ steals for a third baseman, all while staying league-average in BABIP (.286, .290, .296 last three years). Seager has stayed a robotic 20.8 - 22.2% line drive rate, further cementing your faith in his numbers. Now 27, expect Seager these numbers to be his floor, with no where to go but up.
Sabathia, CC - NYA/P: CC Sabathia (SP-NYY) will wear a knee brace for his starts this season. This is more for piece of mind on his part than a recurrent injury, as he looks to get back on the mound following season ending knee surgery in July. The Yankees are hoping for a bounce back year out of Sabathia and his $24 million knee can hold up for 30+ starts in 2015.

Jose Bautista - There's the numbers we were looking for. After two injury-plagued seasons, Bautista returned to play in 155 games and was a monster at the plate. Always known for his elite patience (over 13% BB% since 2009) it was the reduction in K% that stood out, dropping to a career-low 14.3%. While his increase in LD% and decrease in FB% suppressed his HR's for 2014, it allowed him to become a more complete hitter, upping his batting average nearly 30 points from 2013. This is further evident by his spray chart, with a little more distribution to all-fields, rather than the extreme pull-happy Bautista we had come to know. Expect Bautista to come off the board as a top 5 OF for 2015.

Michael Cuddyer - Cuddyer will be 36 when he takes the field Opening Day, coming of a shortened 2014 when a shoulder injury derailed his season. The 14 year veteran moves on to play for the Mets which will surely disappoint fantasy owners. The thin-air in Colorado aided Cuddyer's numbers (0.382 and 0.351 BABIP, astronomical for a non-elite runner) and now moves on to the Citi Field, a difference of 22 in the ballpark factor (117 vs 95). Do not suspect anywhere near the .330+ batting averages he sustained his last two years, as he is bound to regress. Don't hold your breath for the numbers you've witnessed in Colorado, and settle on 2010 Cuddyer.
Josh Hamilton (OF - LAA) is expected to be suspended at least 25 games after a relapse of cocaine and alcohol use. Note, he still has that balky shoulder to deal with on top of his off-the-field issues. Hamilton's slugging has decreased each year since 2013, so tread carefully.

Phil Hughes - With a GB/FB rate hovering around 0.7 from 2011 - 2013, his numbers were screaming for a change from the shoebox that is Yankee Stadium to a more fly ball park. The Twins front office answered those prayers and Hughes went on to have a career year. Ironically enough, he upped his GB/FB rate to 0.91, but still the venue change was significant to his success. Peripherals even suggested he did better than the observed 3.52 ERA, with a 2.65 and 3.18 FIP and xFIP, respectively. This could be attributed to his microscopic 0.69 BB/9. Hughes deceptive mix of slider and curve led to an MLB leading 38% O-Swing. Look for good things to come from the 28 year old righty as he continues to call Target Field home.

Pablo Sandoval - Sandoval is moving on to Boston for 2015, but his approach at the plate likely won't change. Nobody swung at pitches more out of the zone than Sandoval last year (48.1% O-Swing%). Interestingly enough, he still maintains a respectable .300 BABIP. With the wealth of advanced metrics, bad-ball hitters are almost non-existent in today's game. The free-swingin' switch-hitter maintains his solid average with the solid 13% K% for the last three seasons. The shift to the AL East can only help, and should improve on his numbers for 2015.

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Johnny Cueto - Cueto has been outpitching his peripherals since he stepped onto an MLB mound in 2008. This is because of his above average LOB% (81.5 and 82.5% last two years), heavily below average BABIP (.236 and .238) and below average HR/9. Cueto avoids the formula of truth with keeping batters banging it into the ground (46 - 53% GB% since 2011). A closer look to 2014 is that he made the outs when the mattered. With runners in scoring position he kept batters to a low .158 AVG, stymieing the rallies of teams. You have to assume a little regression to 2014 Cueto, but not too much with his historical out pitching of his ERA to FIP. Jose Altuve - Altuve had a monstrous 2014 season, highlighted by 56 steals and winning the MLB batting title at a cool .341 average. Heck, the diminutive 2 bagger even chipped in 7 homers. He can't repeat such gaudy numbers again can he? I'm afraid not. A closer look to his numbers indicates he struck out at a miniscule 7.5% of plate appearances (a dream rate for his fellow Astros Springer, Carter and Singleton). Never in his minor or major league careers has he had below a 7.7% rate (that coming in a small sample size 45 games in Rookie League). Moreover, couple that with a 0.360 BABIP and you will have yourself a career year for average. Now, I'm not saying go ahead and leave him off your draft board for 2015. Speed never goes into slumps, and Altuve has plenty of it. Just hold back expectations of a repeat performance of 2014, and more towards something around 2013 (33 steals, 0.316 BABIP and 0.283 AVG), still highly coveted for the thin 2B position. Draft him as the 2nd or 3rd second baseman off the board. Jansen, Kenley - LAN/RP: Kenley Jansen (RP-LAD) was fitted into a walking boot and will miss at least the month of April. Jansen was projected as one of the best relievers on the board for fantasy leagues, so Mattingly and company will have to get creative to piece it all together for the later innings. If you are hurting for saves, look to a mix of Joel Peralta and J.P. Howell for the early opportunities in Los Angeles. Mat Latos - Latos had a year to forget in 2014. A myriad of injuries in the offseason left him at the starting gates for Opening Day to Early June. His numbers from then on were nothing terrible (3.25 ERA 3.65 FIP 3.99 xFIP), and now he moves to the spacious confines of Marlins Park. Even though his GB% dropped to 37.7% (never below 42% since 2009), I see a bounce back for him in 2015. A declining BB% of 7.8% to 6.2% from 2011 to 2014 represent a further grasp of his mechanics. Of concern is his drop in K/9 from 9.21 in his first full season in 2010 to his 6.51 K/9 in 2014. However, only 27 for Opening Day 2015, he is entering the prime years of his career. With an improved defense behind him (Stanton, Salty and Gordon), he should have a strong season for ERA, WHIP and QS categories for your fantasy squad. And maybe at a bargain, too.

[mpaschal34]

At least March is finally here. Nash, I hope you continue with the updates through Spring Training.

[MexicanStallion]

I"m liking that Latos note too as long as he can bring back his strikeouts. They have taken quite a dip over the past years.

[stevenash]

Doug Fister - Fister is a major concern for me heading into 2015 after a superficially excellent 2014 (16-6, 2.41 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Fister was able to succeed last year despite precipitous declines in swinging strike%, GB rate, and velocity thanks to some fantastic control and one of the best LOB%'s in the game. With an FIP ERA of 3.93 and a place on the wrong side of 30, I do not believe that he will be able to provide value commensurate with his current NFBC ADP spot as the 34th SP off the board, and with Tanner Roark likely lurking in the bullpen, the leash for all the Washington starters may be a bit tighter than you might expect.


Bryce Harper - Harper did have a rough third professional season last year.......as a 21 year old. Look, I understand the negatives here: K rate increase, knee injury, subsequent speed dropoff, thumb injury, sizable drop in ISO, other soft-tissue injuries.....ultimately, the injuries are the key. Few are the players that can continue to produce at an elite level with a laundry list of ailments, and as we say frequently around here, health is a skill. The talent is undeniable though, and whether he ends up performing like Mickey Mantle or J.D. Drew, he's as likely to be a star as anybody that's currently being drafted outside the top 30. And just so you know, Mickey Mantle's 10 top-HR seasons came between the ages of 22-32. Harper doesn't turn 23 until after the season....I'm just saying.


Kevin Kiermaier - Kiermaier heads into camp as the likely starting RF for the Rays following the Wil Myers deal, and at just 24 years of age on Opening Day, it's reasonable (and a minority opinion) to expect some more growth this season. He's increased his ISO at every level since A-ball, and his minor league performances (and his raw speed) would suggest that 15-20 steals would be very possible. The AVG might be a bit of an issue, and his contact rates aren't all that great, but a .260/10/17 guy is a solid 5th OF in deeper formats. Looking at the current ADP's for the outfield, I don't see anyone that I prefer below him, and I like him better than more than a handful of names right ahead of him as well.


Rene Rivera - Rivera could be a very sneaky AL-only or deeper mixed league play at catcher this year. The 31 year old is moving from SD to Tampa, at least a slightly positive park change, and with 11 homers in just 294 ABs and a higher AVG HR distance than Miguel Cabrera (among many others) last year, 15+ homers is certainly not out of the question. He does have some contact issues, but he managed a LD rate of 21% last season, something that if repeated should allow him to keep his AVG around the .250 mark. His upside is limited to power in all likelihood, but he seems to be very much off the radar so far this spring.


C.J. Cron - With Josh Hamilton out an undetermined period of time to start the year, C.J. Cron's value has increased commensurately. Cron has big-boy power, posting an avg HR distance of over 405 feet (MLB average was 395) for his 11 homers, and he also managed a LD rate of over 25%. The contact issues are there to be sure, with a chase% of 41 the primary culprit, but as scarce as power is these days Cron is definitely going to be a useful part in leagues of average depth or greater for at least as long as Hamilton is out.


Josh Rutledge - Some guys are AAAA hitters, and Rutledge may very well be one of them. He's regressed mightily since his age-23 season in 2012, but even so he's never failed to hit below .300 in the minors with any meaningful number of ABs, and he's flashed the ability to provide double-digit totals in both HR and SB. He's very likely to win the Angels 2B job this spring, and with the rather weak state of MIF in general, he is a player to watch in deeper formats.


Dayan Viciedo - Viciedo signed with the Blue Jays on Sunday, and with the injury to a typically slow-healing Michael Saunders expected to last into April, Viciedo has a solid shot at earning some playing time when the team heads north. If that does come to pass, the nearly-26 year old should benefit from the 3rd-best HR park in the majors last year, likely giving him some value in deeper formats...at least for the early going. I think it would be unlikely for him to carve out a major role over the longer haul given the amount of competition for playing time at 1B/OF/DH, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bash a handful of homers in April and maintain value against LHP all season.


Mike Moustakas - It's hard not to love the post-hype prospects, especially ones that are coming off a 5 HR, .327 ISO postseason. Granted, Moustakas has had more false starts than Willie Colon, but there are a passel of positive indicators in his recent record. His LD rate has continued to increase the past two seasons while his BABIP has headed in the other direction, giving him the worst figure for any regular (over 500 PAs) last season. Even assuming that the shift takes some hits away, some better fortune is still likely to head his way (a league average number of LD's dropping in would have resulted in an AVG in the mid-.270's). His avg batted ball distance increased tremendously last year, his BB rate improved to 7% from 6.2%, and his swinging strike% continued to decline. I still would be looking at him as a late-game sleeper in most formats, as with all of these positive indicators he is still just 26.


Oswaldo Arcia - I've been a fan of Arcia's for a few years now, and I'd definitely be looking to snap him up late in all formats again this year. Yes, he has major contact issues...primarily stemming from pitch recognition problems (outside zone swing% approaching 40). Still, he has enormous power, with the 2nd lowest JE (just enough) HR rate and tied for the highest ND (no doubt) HR rate in MLB last year. In addition, I'll reiterate from my comment last fall that his LD rate of 21.5% isn't fully represented in his AVG, and he's likely more of a .250 hitter than a .230 one. With the dearth of power around baseball right now relative to even just a few years ago, a guy like Arcia can push you over the top as a 5th OF.


Trevor Bauer - Everyone loves Kluber, is big on a Carrasco breakout, and thinks Salazar is a sleeper, but Trevor Bauer could be the most likely guy to outperform his draft position for the Indians in 2015. Bauer's ADP is 321 in NFBC competition right now, and for a guy that had an ERA and WHIP well above league average last year, it isn't all that surprising. Bauer did have a nice velocity spike last year, something that assisted him in posting a K/9 of 8.41, and he also showed vastly improved control. In fact, Bauer's 2013-14 looks a bit like Homer Bailey's 2009-10. Bailey has continued to improve since that time to become a solid mid-rotation starter (that retains some upside still), and I think that Bauer has reasonable odds to follow a similar career path despite last year's late-season fade.


Michael Brantley - Brantley had what clearly looks like a career year in 2014, doubling his previous best in HRs without adding any more flyballs or average batted ball distance to the equation. He is a tremendous contact hitter with good speed and, likely, average power that is still just 27 to start the season. Yes, he's still likely to give you an excellent average, but I imagine another 20/20 season will be difficult for him to attain....he has virtually no power except to the pull-side (19 of 20 HRs to RF), and a hitter with that lack of raw strength is going to be hard-pressed to continue to hit homers at his 2014 clip. A .300-15-20 year is definitely possible, perhaps even likely, but will that be enough value for his acquisition cost?


Homer Bailey - As Michael mentioned, Bailey has slid down draft boards this spring with the news that he is a bit less than 50/50 for Opening Day. The news doesn't concern me very much, and I'd like to point out that Bailey is working on a 6-year string of increased swinging strike percentages to go along with 3-year increases in velocity and GB rate. If you asked me to choose one player outside of the top-20 SPs by current ADP that could win the Cy Young this year, Bailey would be my guy.


Ryan Rua - Another deep league sleeper this spring, Rua has come out of nowhere the past few years to enter March 2015 as the projected starting LF for Texas. He managed 20 homers and a .300 AVG across 3 levels in 2014, and while the contact rate is definitely suspect, the mere presence of the solid pop and a 25% LD rate during his 105-AB cameo last fall leave some room for optimism. Michael Choice and Jake Smolinski (and maybe even Ryan Ludwick) could provide some spring competition, but if Rua enters April with the job I would look at him as an AL-only option capable of delivering some cheap power.


Jorge Soler - 11 players hit 30 homers last year in MLB, the lowest non-strike year total since 1992. Power scarcity is one of the critical things that we all have to face drafting our teams now, which is basically the exact opposite of how we were able to look at things 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago. Jorge Soler hit 20 homers in just 289 ABs last year across 4 levels. Granted, he was overqualified for his first two stops, but he managed 13 homers in 199 ABs between AAA and the bigs as well. The standard "average at best" speed and contact issue caveats apply, but Soler certainly appears to have 30-homer pop to go along with a quickly improving Cub lineup to assist his counting stats. I definitely like him as a high-standard deviation OF option this spring.


Brandon McCarthy - One of my favorite hobby horses for a while now, McCarthy is a sneaky back-end option at SP this year. I'll tick off the positives in rapid-fire fashion: xFIP ERA of 2.87, park factor improvement by somewhere between 5-10%, impeccable control, rapidly improving GB rate, best K rate and swinging strike% of his career as a starter, huge velocity bump. In my estimation, something would have to go drastically wrong for McCarthy to not perform as an above-average starter in 2015, and that makes him likely to be an overperformer given his current ADP.


Ian Kennedy - Kennedy had a nice velocity spike and a predictable decrease in HR rate in his first full year in SD, and with a shiny new offense behind him in 2015, it's hard not to forecast even better things for 2015, especially when you look at that 3.21 FIP ERA from last year. His average ADP reflects that optimism to some extent, but he is being drafted 4th among the SD SPs right now, and I think he's as likely as any to be the best performer of the group.

[daneblazer]

How much are you dropping Sale? His hurt foot is his landing foot. Could be something that lingers.

[stevenash]

How much are you dropping Sale? His hurt foot is his landing foot. Could be something that lingers.

Early third round.
Figures to miss 3 or 4 starts.
That's 10 percent roughly.

If a power hitter misses 10 percent of a season, his 35 homers (on paper) now become 30.

I have a motto, you can not win a fantasay season in the first round draft
But you can certainly lose a fantasy season in the first round.

Me?
My first 9 picks in the first 9 rounds I want on the field each and every day.
Except my starting pitcher, who if I take in the first five rounds better be on the mound on opening day.

I don't want Sale now, unless he falls to me in a position I like, but if I have, say late 2nd round pick, and he's on the board, will not look at him, maybe not even third round. I can't waste top of the draft picks on players that don't start the season.

[mpaschal34]

Personally, as deep as pitching has become, I'd never draft a pitcher in the first 3 rounds....unless Kershaw dropped to the 2nd round.

[stevenash]

Houston Astros George Springer, Worth the risk? -George Springer could go 30/30 with a .260 average and I would not be surprised, but however he could also go .220 with 15/15 and I would also not be surprised. That's a risk that's hard to take with a guy who you likely have to spend on of your top 4 picks on. What holds him back from being a perennial first rounder is his often discussed, amazing ability to swing and miss. Last year he struck out in 33% of his at bats which brought his average down into the .230 range. He is solely relying on his BABIP to provide any sort of average value with how many of his at bats end in homers and strikeouts. He's going to have to learn how to hit offspeed and breaking pitches, swinging and missing at nearly 20% of each while hovering in the 15% range on fastballs. If pitchers begin working him with more offspeed early in the count, Springer could have another season like last, but also won't be what you paid for him.

[stevenash]

Aaron Sanchez (TOR-RP)
Disregard Aaron Sanchez's poor outing yesterday (1.1IP 4H 5R 2ER). Sanchez is a top-notch prospect that could push his way into Toronto's starting rotation. Out of the bullpen Sanchez had some unbelievable statistics. In 33 innings pitched Sanchez posted a 1.09 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and a 2.87 FIP. These numbers were further complimented by a 0.3 HR/9, 3.18 GB/FB ratio, and a 97.1 MPH average fastball. Neither lefties nor righties could hit Sanchez; lefties hit .150 against Sanchez while righties only hit .116. Obviously these numbers would be impossible to maintain as a starter, but Sanchez isn't guaranteed a spot in the rotation. Due to his past success in the bullpen Sanchez could be a surprise candidate to fill the closer role in Toronto. Whether he is pitching out of the bullpen or the starting rotation, I would definitely take a chance on Sanchez. His ceiling is so high and he'll most likely be available in the later rounds of many drafts.


Drew Smyly (TB-SP)
The day Drew Smyly got traded to the Rays he became an entirely new pitcher. Even though his 89.9 MPH average fastball didn't dazzle batters, his K/9 ratio was surprisingly decent. Last season Smyly managed to put up a 7.82 K/9 while maintaining a 3.17 K/BB. Smyly's consistency in the strike zone helped attribute to his 3.24 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Here's the fun part for fantasy baseball owners. As a member of the Tigers, Smyly posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 105.1 innings pitched. While his numbers weren't atrocious, they certainly weren't impressive. As a member of the Rays, Smyly posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 47.2 innings pitched. What might be even more eye opening was that Smyly had a 2.1 WAR in only seven games. While his numbers aren't sustainable for longer periods of time, Smyly still offers a mildly high upside and could be a nice back of the rotation starter for your fantasy team.


Yordano Ventura (KCR-SP)
At this moment Yordano Ventura is the projected ace of the Kansas City Royals. In his rookie season, Ventura displayed that he has what it takes to good pitcher in the major leagues. Ventura's 97.0 MPH average fastball is the definition of throwing cheese. As Ventura matures his 7.82 K/9 should increase. To add to Ventura's credibility, he did a good job of keeping the ball out of the bleachers. In 183 innings Ventura's averaged a 0.7 HR/9 and 1.63 GB/FB ratio. These statistics attributed to Ventura's impressive 3.20 ERA. Considering that he was a rookie, I would be surprised if Ventura didn't only get better. He is a high ceiling player with the potential to have a substantial impact on your pitching staff. Since he is young and relatively unestablished, Ventura should be available in the middle rounds of the draft.


Cody Allen (CLE-RP)
Cody Allen is a great sleeper pick in this year's fantasy draft. Allen got his first real chance to close last season, and was 24 for 28 in saves. With his role as the closer now solidified, Allen should see a rise in saves. In 69 and two-thirds innings Allen posted a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, an 11.76 K/9, and an 86.6% strand rate. As the closer in one of the larger major league stadiums, I wouldn't be too worried about Allen's 0.9 HR/9. Allen only allowed three home runs in 37 innings at home. The road is where Allen had a harder time keeping the ball in the ballpark. Allen allowed four home runs in 32 two-thirds innings, yet his road ERA was only 2.20. His ability to maintain a low ERA and a high K/9 ratio could make Allen a valuable commodity to your team. Also, since Allen is a relatively small name closer, he shouldn't disappear from drafts until the later rounds. Depending on the timing and your need for saves Cody Allen could be a fine solution.


Travis d'Arnaud (NYM-C)
As far as catchers go, I think Travis d'Arnaud is a diamond in the rough. His .242 average and .302 OBP from last year should improve as supported by his post All-Star statistics. Before the All-Star break, d'Arnaud only hit .217 with a dismal 14 extra base hits in 189 at bats. Following the All-Star break, d'Arnaud showed signs of life, hitting .265 with 24 extra base hits in 196 at bats. Part of d'Arnaud's potential to improve his batting average and OBP is based on his 15.2K%. Such a low strikeout percentage is comparable to solid hitting catchers such as Dioner Navarro, Wilson Ramos, and Salvador Perez. Additionally d'Arnaud can hit for power. In Double-A d'Arnaud displayed surprising pop hitting 21 home runs in 114 games played. The following year in Triple-A d'Arnaud smacked 16 home runs in only 67 games. With a scarce supply of power hitting catchers in this years' draft, d'Arnaud stands out amongst the crowd.


Joey Votto (CIN-1B)
Here is how to make a killing in your fantasy draft. Wait for Joey Votto to fall beyond the first 50 picks and then grab him. At 31 years old Votto really isn't that old and certainly has some great years left in him. In 2014, his worst major league season, Votto still had an outstanding .390 OBP, which was heavily influenced by a 17.3% BB rate. These exceptional numbers are the essence of Joey Votto. No matter how he gets there, Votto will be on base all year. With a career .359 BABIP, Votto is sure to raise his .255 average from 2014. Some might be concerned about Votto's power and health, which have both declined since 2011. Though he might not blast home runs like he used to, Votto is still a lock for 20 dingers. RBIs won't be much of a problem either. With Billy Hamilton leading off, Votto is almost guaranteed a chance to hit with runners in scoring position at least once every other game. For those unsure about Votto's health, consider that he has played in at least 100 games in all but two of his eight career seasons. One of those two seasons was his first year in the league. Votto was a September call up and only in played 24 games. Forget about last season's numbers in this situation. Don't lose the chance to have this four-time All-Star on your team because of one bad year.


Howie Kendrick (LAD-2B)
Most fantasy owners take Howie Kendrick for granted because he doesn't produce overwhelming offensive statistics. However, Kendrick is one of the most offensively reliable second baseman as displayed by his numbers in 2014. These numbers included a .347 BABIP, an 11 Off and a 115 wRC+. Further evidence of Kendrick's consistency is supported by his production from past seasons. Since 2008, Kendrick has never batted below .279 and has played in at least 100 games in each of those seasons. During this stretch Kendrick has stolen between 10-14 bases five times and hit 10 or more home runs in four of those seasons. Now a part of the stacked Dodgers lineup, Kendrick might be even more of a threat than in previous years. Since most projections don't rank Kendrick as a top 10-second basemen, he's likely to fall to the middle rounds of the draft where he could be a great steal.


Kris Bryant (CHC-3B)
Kris Bryant is very similar to Josh Gordon in the sense that you need to draft him in anticipation that he will play this season. If any player on the Cubs suffers an injury, Bryant could get the call. Between Double-A and Triple-A Bryant hit 43 home runs, while driving in 110 RBIs. To boost his credentials Bryant even stole 15 bases and that's not even the fun part. Bryant's outstanding .438 OBP at Double-A was partially due to his .440 BABIP in 297 at bats. In 297 Triple-A at bats, Bryant only posted a .367 BABIP, which was his lowest at any level with more than 60 at bats. While this drop off might be alarming, just consider that a .367 BABIP would've been second best in the major leagues last season. Bryant's power numbers and ability to hit for average makes him a must have even if he doesn't make the opening day roster. Make no mistake, Bryant is bound to reach the majors this season and will make a noticeable fantasy impact.


Delino DeShields Jr.
My favorite sleeper pick is Delino DeShields Jr. Recently acquired from Houston in the rule five draft, DeShields has a legitimate shot to make the opening day roster. If he makes the cut, DeShields is a must own. As a minor leaguer, DeShields stole 101 bases in 2012. While this number dropped to a more modest 51 in 2013, I wouldn't be too concerned. Any guy who consistently steals 50 bases a year is clearly an asset to a fantasy team. The main problem for DeShields is his bat, as conveyed by his .236 average in 2014. If he makes the opening day roster, DeShields will have to rely on more than his speed to stay in the lineup. Luckily DeShields has a decent eye at the plate. In each of his past four seasons DeShields has drawn at least 52 walks topping out at 88 in 2012. This patience is a great asset at the plate, especially for a young leadoff caliber hitter. Be prepared to make some room on your bench for DeShields. One injury to a Rangers outfielder in spring training could solidify a spot for him in the opening day lineup.


Luis Valbuena (HOU-2B/3B)
Luis Valbuena is going to replace Matt Dominguez as the starting third baseman for the Houston Astros. In 2014, Valbuena's first season with over 400 at bats, the results were mildly impressive. Over the course of 478 at bats Valbuena logged 16 home runs and 51 RBIs. His .435 SLG and .186 ISO are evidence that Valbuena is capable of exceeding 16 home runs. Also take into consideration that right field in Minute Maid Park is 27 feet shorter down the line than it is at Wrigley Field. As for Valbuena's low RBI total, don't be deceived. This lack of production was a reflection of the Cubs weak offense more than anything. On a team like the Astros, Valbuena definitely has a shot to reach 70 RBIs. Though I wouldn't make him my starting third baseman, Valbuena could be a decent utility player who will go undrafted in many leagues.


Billy Hamilton (CIN-CF)
Don't be fooled by Billy Hamilton's lackluster numbers from last season. Not many rookies can hit like Mike Trout. In Hamilton's rookie campaign he hit .250 with a .292 OBP. These numbers, especially the average will increase as Hamilton continues to adjust to major league pitching. As far as speed, Hamilton is in league of his own. In 2012 he stole 155 bases. For such a speed demon, Hamilton's 56 stolen bases in 2014 were his fewest since 2010. With Hamilton more likely to be on base this season, his stolen base total should rise. Additionally, his runs scored should also improve with Joey Votto back in the lineup. Due to his one of a kind speed, Hamilton will be a hot commodity. If you drafted a lot power early, Hamilton could be a good compliment to your lineup, but be careful not to overvalue him.


Shin-Soo Choo (TEX-LF)
If there is one batter I felt badly for last season it was Shin-Soo Choo. Despite a rough 2014 Choo is typically a top 50-fantasy player with 20-20 potential. Much of Choo's struggles last season could be attributed to his .244 average against right-handed pitching. In past seasons Choo has hit over .300 against right-handed pitching. This includes a .317 and .327 average in 2012 and 2013 respectively. It would be shocking if Choo's numbers don't improve, especially his runs scored. After scoring only 58 runs in 2014, Choo will be glad to have Prince Fielder back in the lineup. Consider Choo's miserable 2014 season a blessing in disguise. He will be less sought after than in previous drafts, and since his numbers are bound to improve Choo should be a great pick.


Mark Trumbo (ARI-1B/LF)
Everyone knows Mark Trumbo can hit the long ball. Despite a disappointing 2014
season, Trumbo should be on your radar. Now at full health, Trumbo will be a big threat in Arizona's lineup. Before his 2014 season was cut short by a foot injury, Trumbo hit 14 home runs in 88 games. These 14 home runs were complimented by 61 RBIs. At nearly a home run a week and three fourths of an RBI per game, Trumbo provided fantasy owners with enormous offensive production. Going into the 2015 season, Trumbo's career .208 ISO and .460 SLG provide signs of more power to look forward to. To add to his value, Trumbo has eligibility at 1B and LF. Make a splash and take Trumbo if you need power. After a shortened 2014 season he should come at a discount anyway.