The line was a little surprising. A 'pick' with Auburn at home against a freshman quarterback. What do you think?
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10-10-11 01:25 AM #1
Florida at Auburn. Why did this open as a pick?
Last edited by Dax; 10-10-11 at 04:16 PM.
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10-10-11 07:23 AM #2
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10-10-11 09:36 AM #3
I thought Auburn would open up at -3. Both of these teams have two losses, but Florida is a mess right now. Auburn is 4-0 ATS against Florida at home.
Last edited by Dax; 10-10-11 at 04:16 PM.
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10-10-11 09:47 AM #4
but florida defense is arguably still great
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10-10-11 09:56 AM #5
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10-10-11 11:52 AM #6
Originally Posted by chankng
"arguably" being the key word
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10-10-11 12:01 PM #7
The market thought Florida was about 3 pts better than Auburn on a neutral field.
...now it's 2.
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10-10-11 12:18 PM #8
Auburn Run Offense - B+
Florida Run Defense - C
Auburn Pass Offense - D
Florida Pass Defense - B
Florida Run Offense - B
Auburn Run Defense - C
Florida Pass Offense - C (without 1st and 2nd string qb)
Auburn Pass Defense - D
Special Teams
Auburn B
Florida B
Home field advantage - Auburn
Close game advantage - Auburn (9-0 in games decided by 4pts less)
Go with Auburn
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10-10-11 01:31 PM #9
A, B, C, D metrics = hogwash ^^^^^
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10-10-11 04:31 PM #10
yeah this line is surprising but I guess utah state almost beat auburn so ya never know what auburn team will show up.
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10-10-11 05:29 PM #11
Just an opinion since I won't have money on the game and obviously I'm a Gator fan.
Florida has been pummeled the past 2 weeks on both sides of the ball. This won't be a free pass week but Auburn does not bring the same upfront physicality as Alabama and LSU did. These 2 teams are more evenly matched as far as size goes and I would give the edge to Florida in speed on both sides of the ball.
Florida will be better able to run the ball against Auburn and while Dyer is a formidable back he is not in the same class as Florida has faced the previous weeks and more importantly neither is Auburn's offensive line.
I know Auburn beat South Carolina but so much of that had to do with the dismal performance of Steven Garcia.
Everything I think about this game could be completely proven to be wishful thinking but at the time of this writing I truly think Florida wins in a relatively close game. In fact if it climbs to Auburn -3 or higher I probably will make a small play of Florida money lie since it will have value for me at that point.
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10-10-11 09:05 PM #12
Originally Posted by Blackroc78
Auburn stadium is going to be rocking
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10-10-11 09:26 PM #13
Florida I believe is down to their 3rd QB
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10-10-11 11:07 PM #14
agreed, going with Auburn
Last edited by le14; 10-10-11 at 11:11 PM.
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10-10-11 11:10 PM #15
Auburn is at +2 right now on 5Dimes. I'm biting right now since I do not think it's going to get better than that.
Auburn at home, coming off a loss, with Florida coming in with a true freshman QB.
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10-10-11 11:10 PM #16
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10-11-11 12:55 AM #17
Auburn +2 @ 5dimes.
Am I missing something
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10-11-11 01:04 AM #18
Florida is the play as Auburn still has huge gaps in there defense. Florida may have got handled by #1 & #2 teams in the nation with the best defensives in College football. Auburn is NOWHERE near LSU and Alabama and won't pose much threat on defense.
Last edited by Pickma$ter; 10-11-11 at 01:58 AM.
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10-11-11 01:32 AM #19
I'm not sure I would give Florida a B in rush offense. They are ranked 10th in the country right now in rushing yards per game on the road. Also, Auburn should have an F for run defense. They are ranked 110th in the nation in rush yards allowed per game at home. Also, Florida is being undervalued coming off of the hardest 2 week schedule of any team in a long time. This is why the line is where it is. If Florida can dominate with their run game then they control TOP from the get go and it takes a lot of pressure off of their young, inexperienced QBs, and places it directly on the young, a little less-inexperienced Auburn QB.
Last edited by TucsonTom; 10-11-11 at 01:39 AM.
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10-11-11 07:55 AM #20
game is at Auburn though, if it was at Florida this line would be about right
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10-11-11 01:36 PM #21
I'm still thinking it over, but I really wanna go LARGE on Auburn.
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10-11-11 01:59 PM #22
It is Auburn +2 right now at my book as well. This almost seems like a trap game and too good to be true. Originally Posted by le14
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10-11-11 02:21 PM #23
AUB easy! UF is terrible without Brantley
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10-11-11 03:16 PM #24
LMAO I love how Vegas knows how to twist these lines with false perception from national tv games. Originally Posted by DJT22
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10-11-11 03:53 PM #25
Is Florida REALLY terrible or have they just played reallly good teams lately. Last week they played the #1 team in the country and the week before that they lost equally as bad to a very good Alabama team. They beat Kentucky soundly (yawn) and they beat Tennessee by 10. This Auburn team may be the closest to Florida's level of competetion all year, but I don't follow the SEC like I do the Big 10 so I need some help from you guys. I am leaning Auburn especially at +2 but it seems like a trap to me. The other thing I was thinking is this. Could Auburn be caught in a "look ahead" situation with having to play LSU next week or does that just not happen in the SEC. That happens in the Big Ten. Hell, I remember Ohio State getting beat by Michigan State at home just before they had to play Michigan on the road back in the late 90's. Originally Posted by DJT22
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10-11-11 05:08 PM #26
hmm Auburn ML +110 right now, may not be a better chance
+110 for a home night game with an Auburn team that is still capable against Florida playing its 3rd game of a brutal stretch with 3rd string QB (true freshman? gotta be kidding me)
traps lose too, great Auburn spot
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10-11-11 06:43 PM #27
Florida will play defense. Auburn will not. That being said, with Florida down to their 3rd QB, and Auburn being at home. I would take Auburn. Originally Posted by Greyraptor
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10-11-11 10:46 PM #28
yes, it happens everywhere, and this would be the kind of game where it would happen. Originally Posted by Greyraptor
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10-11-11 10:53 PM #29
Auburn is not good. They have been a little lucky in spots, and they are becoming a bit exposed. Florida isn't that great on offense, but they are good enough to score on Auburn.
Florida is the play.
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10-11-11 11:06 PM #30
Gators will roll.
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10-12-11 06:15 AM #31
Auburn
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10-12-11 10:10 AM #32
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10-12-11 11:01 AM #33
Thanks Dano. Originally Posted by DanoRoo
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10-12-11 11:05 AM #34
You are exactly right as far as the value for the ML play right here. I love the value with Auburn on ML but just wanted to get some of you SEC guys perspective. I have seen more Florida than Auburn and what I saw of Florida was against LSU and Bama. I didn't like what I saw from the Gators but come on...Auburn does not have close to the talent level of LSU's defense from what I have seen so far. Originally Posted by Sunde91
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10-12-11 11:06 AM #35
Thanks Tex! Originally Posted by texhooper
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