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Experts of a Football Team
Hey everyone, I was thinking we should try to get a thread of people who really closely follow a team, and they can provide insight and leans in games that they feel good about about that team. People always say one way to beat Vegas is to follow one team really closely, while they have to follow 120.
For me personally I'll be posting leans on Mizzou games this year.
Homers are the worst players when it comes to gaming. Their hearts tell their brains what to do.
This saturday Mizzou plays SEMO, one of the small universities in the state. We played them in 2008 when we were a very good team and beat them 52-3, but that was 7 years ago, little relevance.
The spread is 41.5 and o/u is 54.
Spread is a crapshoot but I would lean towards taking the +41.5. I won't be doing it, but Mizzou is always kind of slow out of the gate, and our 1st four games against smaller teams are closer than they should be. It could be a blowout, but I think Mizzou will win by something closer to 30 or 35, something like 41-10.
I also lean towards the Under 54, and I think I might play that. Our defense will be great this year, not as good as last year but still very good and enough to stop SEMO to 10 or 14 points at maximum, very likely it could just be 6 or 7. Our offense still has question marks, we lost our three biggest receivers last year. So we have a good running back and O-line, but we have no idea how our receivers will be. I think we play decent, but no amazing offense (at least in relation to how we should play vs. a small school), and Mizzou puts up 35 or 40 or so.
Favorite play on this game is to take the Under.
Last edited by gregmav1; 09-03-15 at 10:21 AM.
Some people do that, other people just really follow a team and know sincerely, or at least much better than the average Vegas bettor, how they will play. The year Tigers came into SEC I knew we were going to be dismantled, because our team was ravaged by injuries, and I cleaned up going like 9-3 ATS that year. Last year I knew we were underrated and took the Tigers in like 9 games and went against them in 3 and went 9-3 again. Not saying I'm a complete expert on them, but I do follow them very closely and I'm definitely a guy who tells all my fellow Mizzou fans to be realistic and expects us to always go 8-4 and then we go 10-2 or 9-3. I don't jump on my team's bandwagon and say we win every game.Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
You may be right, but hopefully we can get some smart people who aren't just huge fans of their home teams and actually get knowledgable people who follow a team very closely and can put up sincere analysis on here.
Under 54 cashes easily, 34-3 (also called +41.5)! I sniped the game pretty good. Hope a few tailed! I'll try to cap Mizzou games all year, hopefully a few people post other teams.
Thanks man, I agree. If we even just get 3 or 4 guys that really follow a team closely and can cap that team correctly 65% of the time, could be a huge moneymaking thread
I'm from Arkansas and huge fan. Follow them closely. I'll try to be unbiased and throw a few opinions out there. I've been wagering awhile so I have experience with them.
Cool yeah, trying to get a few people that prove they have sincere great knowledge of a team, could be a nice little group.
Mizzou will see ya at the end of the year
Heres a tip, its better to follow a Conference as a whole instead of individual teams. Following individual teams keeps you from focusing on the big picture within conference play.. Example I follow College Basketball and know it very well.. I study conferences in college basketball religiously because, it gives me an overall scope on the level of play..
Apply the same concept to College Football, and you'll be able to gauge the potential moves and shakers..
I think your mindset has merit to it, but you're wrong, at least for college football. Teams play 12 games a year. Once they play 3 games, their season is 25% over. Almost every team's first 3 or 4 games are against an out-of-conference team that has no bearing at all on anything, it's all completely arbitrary.
On the other hand, you can follow one team closely during the off-season, and the previous season, and really get a feel for how they should be compared to their opponent. The conference is extremely hard to gauge until 6 games into the season, by which point Vegas has the spreads and teams down pat. In the meantime, let's let people who really really know a team hone in on them and say their analysis.
Okay guys, back with this week's Mizzou play. I hope a few other people hop in on this thread once they think they have a team pegged.
Mizzou vs Arkansas State... Mizzou -10.5, Over/Under 59.
I'm just gonna get right to it - UNDER 59 is a huge play here. Last week went exactly how I expected, and I think this week will too. Mizzou's main RB and our veteran Center are both out, which could both hurt our offense. Our defense will be great again. I don't know a ton about Arkansas State, but looking last week they got destroyed by USC 52-6 or something. Mizzou's offense is not as good as USC's and our D is probably just as good as theirs. This screams under to me, with a final of something like 30-17.
The spread I'm not going to touch again this week. If I had to take it I would take Mizzou -10.5, but I could see a 31-21 game happening and the hook coming into play, so I'm just playing the Under this week for Mizzou. I know Arkansas State fans are pumped for the game so they probably come out ready to play.
So that's the pick this week, Under 59 for Mizzou/Ark St. game. Went 2-0 on picks last week, with 1-0 on actual plays. Hopefully can do it again this week.
Arkansas over 54
Last week we put up 48 and let off the gas the entire second half, could have scored 60 easily. We know we can run the ball so Brandon Allen will be passing again this week. He was very efficient and looked great. The game will be in little rock so the crowd will be hype due to the only game this year. Weather is expected to be nice. I assume Toledo will have to pass once they are behind big. Im calling for a 49-17 game. Spread is 21... I hate laying that many points but think the game will go Over 54.
I think Toledo can put up some points too with Arkansas, possibly yeah like you were saying, in that 17-24 range. I might join you on this.
UNLV, though I have no lean on this week's game vs UCLA. Lines are sharp on this one IMO.
Use caution on this one. Toledo replaces its entire OL and is without its top running back, Kareem Hunt. They only managed 16 points in the first half against Stony Brook before the game was called last week. I loved the Arkansas over last week and wrote it up on another thread. The Hogs may cover this one by themselves, but I wouldn't count on a whole lot from the Rockets on Saturday. GL!
Sounds like a cover to me? I think both,
Honestly. This years razorback team could be a covering machine. I'm a homer here but against lower competition, it's not fair kinda like Georgia tech.
Missouri-Arkansas State is a good under play. Mizzou's offense is questionable at best. with a starting QB who is experienced, but certainly nothing to write home about. Their WR corps is lacking. Arkansas State apparently has an offense much weaker than expected.
Oklahoma and Iowa fan here. sounds biased but ill take both spreads this week. Coach Ferentz looked to finally change his old ways and open up the Offense a little bit. Beathard looked good, and Drew Ott is unstoppable at d end. ISUs strength is their big tall wrs, i think iowas corners are good enough to stop them, as i believe Desmond King is one of the most under rated players in the big 10.
Oklahoma will win, and thats all they have to do to cover. Big game Bob always shows up for the sec games. think alabama game two years ago. Baker Mayfield is the real deal, and I think our Defense can contain Tenny enough for us to get the win. (we should not have much trouble scoring on them).
TAKE BOOMER AND THE HAWKS
I'll be at a music festival all this weekend so won't be able to post, but just a reminder... Mizzou Under 59! I would feel about taking it up at any number up to 55! 1-0 so far.
Mizzou wins 27-20, easily under the 59. Another good bet! Total went to exactly what I thought it would. 2-0 on Mizzou plays, looking to make money off these games all season.
I apologize for my over 54 pick. Toledo scored 16 which was close to the 17 I predicted. Arkansas obviously lost and scored only 12 points. It was brutal to watch the team fall completely apart in every aspect offensively. Losing to Toledo was heartbreaking for many fans.
Yeah I couldn't watch the game, I saw they put up tons of yards but no points, what happened?
The run game didn't work as planned and turnovers in the red zone. We also didn't force turnovers which always helps. No big plays etc
Or you could, you know... get a life.
No idea what that is in reference to bud.
So I've gone 2-0, but this week I don't have much of a read. The Totals for Mizzou games finally came down, down to 41, and that's about where I think it will be. Spread around -21 Mizzou over UConn, and yeah, this will be like 31-13 probably. No leans either way so I have no recommendations on this week, only want to try and give you guys Mizzou winners. Leans would be UConn +21 and the Over, but definitely not official plays. Gl this weekend.
Official Mizzou plays 2-0, didn't have anything last week but Uconn +21 would have hit but the Over would have lost.
This week, AGAIN we play the Under. Mizzou/Kentucky, two struggling offensive teams. Mizzou super struggling. But fantastic defense. This honestly could be 16-10, but likely will be somewhere closer to 20-16. Play UNDER 44. If I were to choose the spread I would take Mizzou +3, but not an official play.
2-0, this week's play: Under 44.
Welp, the Under hit and we hit again, and again by more than a touchdown like I thought. 3-0 on Mizzou plays, let's keep it rolling! Hope some people have been tailing.
Looking forward to your next play. Nice going.
Thanks man. Been looking at the next few games, they will be some good games and I'm not sure if I'll have plays but if I have one I really like I'll definitely post it.
This week I'm taking Mizzou -2.5. Not a home-fan play, haven't said to play them once in this thread with an official play yet. South Carolina D backs are awful and I think we can actually get some offensive game going against them. Our defense will be solid as always. The over/under I can't decide, I think I would probably stray towards the Under 41.5, but that's pretty low and I could easily see a 27-20 game happening.
So this week's play is Mizzou -2.5. Prediction on final score: 23-17 Mizzou. 3-0 going into this week. BOL to all.
Guys....... 4-0! Hope some people are tailing. The week I do say that Mizzou is the right play, they win by two touchdowns. Woo! The Under would have hit as well like I predicted, but don't care, not an official play. Mizzou easily covers the -2.5 and we improve to 4-0-0 on Mizzou plays. Hope some people are tailing! I do think I have this team pegged. Due for a loss soon but at this point no matter what happens we're probably up on Mizzou CFB plays for the year.
Let's try to go 5-0 next week!
Funny you follow mizzou so close, I do as well and love betting their gms, so easy to predict. I'm perfect on the year too but I've played more on the sides and leaned to the totals. Wish I would have seen your thread earlier we could have hit a 2 team parlay every week till this last where we both took tigers for 1st time. Lol.
Just trying to pick a winning bet each week brotha. 4 for 4 so far.
Game vs. the now highly-ranked #11 Florida Gators this week. Pre-season this game was not on my list of ones to look forward to but suddenly it's huge. Our picks are 4-0, but Mizzou overall is 5 unders and 0 overs, and this game vs. a great Florida defense is going to be so low scoring. I just don't know if Vegas will keep the o/u high. I bet the total will be right around 39 or 40, and a close game will happen but Florida probably beats us. I would predict a score of somewhere around 20-13 Florida, but that's preliminary. Give me a week to think on it and I'll post my official play later this week!
Good luck peeps!
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