[blumpkin]

If Maia cant or wont take Bisping down can he outpoint him? Also where to do see the evans line ending up? I love evans here but my book wont have a line until later in the week.

[Vaughany]

UFC 142 Review:





Total risk: 85.817 units

Return: 105.444 units

Profit: +19.627 units (+44.333 units inc' arbs)

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26:+0.45 units
UFC 118:+6.11 units
MFC Retribution:-1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22:+5.55 units
UFC 119:+1.5 units
WEC 51:+1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38:+11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2:+2.417 units
UFC 120:-0.589 units
UFC 121:+9.011 units
WEC 52:-1.274 units
UFC 122:+17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12:+0.865 units
UFC 123:+1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale:+9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review:+1.1 units
UFC 124:+5.135 units
WEC 53:+0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite:+1.354 units
UFC 125:+3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2:+3.961 units
UFC 126:+24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva:+0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy:+8.594 units
BAMMA 5:*+0.84 units
UFC 127:+10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3:+11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus:-1.4 units
UFC 128:+22.131 units
Bellator 38:+4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24:+44.283 units
Bellator 40:+2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley:-5.527 units
Bellator 41:-0.7 units
UFC 129:+77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130:+45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale:-16.766 units
UFC 131:+17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum:+11.474 units
UFC Versus 4:+25.288 units
UFC 132:+1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43:+1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor:+3.274 units
UFC 133:-12.302 units
UFC Versus 5:-5.073 units
UFC 134:-10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou:+20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19:-1.863 units
UFC 135:+53.938 units
UFC Versus 6:+4.021 units
UFC 136:-33.134 units
Bellator 55:-5.731 units
UFC 137:+4.337 units(+10.151 units inc’ arb)
UFC 138:+57.692 units
UFC on FOX:+5.087 units (+121.575 units inc' arbs)
UFC 139: +15.24 units (+28.647 units inc' arbs)
UFC 140: -15.065 units
UFC 141: +70.166 units (+78.399 units inc' arbs)
Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Jardine: +0.664 units
UFC 142: +19.627 units (+44.333 units inc' arbs)

Total profit (excluding arbs): +535.705 units

[Vaughany]

V care to give a mini breakdown on how you feel about Bisping vs. Maia? Think people are overlooking Maia on this one? Maia has much much improved wrestling and striking. He could cause some problems for Bisping.

I think the current line is off for sure. I think Maia should be closer to +120 to +150 range, and wouldn't knock anybody for saying that Maia should actually be the favourite. I also don't see Bisping winning by any other way then decision so I've already taken Bisping by decision at +108 and will most likely use this as a hedge to plays on Maia. Bisping has finished his last two opponents mainly because they both gassed after a round, but also because Bisping took more chances and was more aggressive than usual. I believe the reasoning behind his aggression (less elusive style) and sitting behind his punches more was partly because Bisping wasn't concerned about Rivera or even Miller's grappling threat (or stand-up), and more so perhaps because he genuinely disliked both guys, especially Rivera, so wanted to finish and make a statement emphatically. With Maia he clearly is going to have to be concerned about the grappling threat and also won't have the same "feud" motivation that he had with Rivera and Miller. Only just today Maia has come out saying he... "doesnt have any problems at all with Bisping. He was always very respectful and polite whenever we met, so I have no reason to think bad of him. I think he is an intelligent guy and has helped our sport to grow a lot in the UK and Europe, and that can't be denied.” I'm sure some will think tht it's irrelevant whether Bisping has a problem with his opponent or not, but I think he's the kind of emotional character that does change his attitude and even style slightly depending on how he feels about his opponent.

I highly doubt that we will witness Maia gassing out in the second round like Mayhem and Rivera did. However, Maia has shown in fights against Miranda and Grove that he does tend to slow down considerably in the third round which could be a significant issue in this fight. Nonetheless, although Bisping has shown that he has decent takedown defence, and even better ability to get back to his feet and remain composed if taken down, the evidence, all be it minimal, is still there that he can be taken down. Despite Mayhem's poor performance he did get Bisping to the ground, but just didn't do anything with it. Wanderlei also took Bisping down a couple of times - but again didn't do much with it. In his other recent fights, his opponents didnt even attempt to take him down - Dan Miller, Sexyama, Leben and Dan Henderson. Maia, if persistent can certainly grab hold of Bisping and get him to the ground. Only question is how long can he keep him there and how aggressive will he be? Maia has said that he thinks he can sub Bisping, which suggests that he wont just look to control and maintain position. I think being aggressive would be the best strategy against Bisping as otherwise the fight will either get stood up by the ref (as Bisping is good at regaining full guard and stalling his opponents activity), or he will get back to his feet. I think Maia needs to be aggressive and try and take Bispings back, lock in a body triangle and at least show that he is controlling the fight even if he doesnt sub Bisping (who has very solid BJJ defence). I wouldn't rule out Maia clipping Bisping standing either. There is rarely a fight where Bisping doesn't get tagged in the stand-up...and Maia has shown improved stand-up and some reasonable power in his right hand. All in all I think Maia has a decent chance of getting the decision (possibly even a sub but its unlikely) but I do think he'll need to win rounds 1 and 2 quite convincingly like he did against Grove and Miranda because round 3 I expect Bisping to have an edge due to his superior conditioning.

[dww123]

Yeah the Swedish original was excellent. Haven't seen the Chloe Moretz one yet, let me know what u think of it Gabe...I might watch it tomorrow or during the week

Swedes and the French make the best movies IMO. Anybody see the american The girl with the dragon tatoo? That was the first foreign film and saw and loved it.

[Vaughany]

Swedes and the French make the best movies IMO. Anybody see the american The girl with the dragon tatoo? That was the first foreign film and saw and loved it.

Yeah seen all three...thought they were pretty good, not seen the Daniel Craig version yet tho. I prefer Asian movies (Hong Kong and Asian) - Infernal Affairs trilogy is one of my favourites (what the Departed copied).

[dww123]

I tried asian movies but they are too weirdly violent for me. Plus, i don't like the sound of their languages. BTW, are you a professional MMA gambler? I quit my job about 6 months ago and this is all i do. I wonder if there is anyone else that does it too for a living. Anyway, so far so good

[Vaughany]

I tried asian movies but they are too weirdly violent for me. Plus, i don't like the sound of their languages. BTW, are you a professional MMA gambler? I quit my job about 6 months ago and this is all i do. I wonder if there is anyone else that does it too for a living. Anyway, so far so good

Ah yeah some are ridiculously violent, I'm not in to them ones as such, more like the crime/thriller/cop ones like Infernal Affairs that are more serious and dont have the comedic blood spraying out of severed heads every 5 minutes!

ha No, I don't make enough to be "professional", plus I wouldn't feel as comfortable doing it if it was my only source of income - could make me more reckless and lead to bad decisions. One benefit of the job that I do is that I can get most of what I need to do regarding actual work done within a couple of hours of the day then just chill out spending rest of the time in the office doing whatever, so basically feels like I'm getting paid to gamble anyway!

[gabe]

, At least make it to the bathtub scene. If you're looking for more of a gangster - Aussie film I'd recommend Animal Kingdom. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1313092/ Watching the new Shameless (US) episode right now. Quality show.

Seen Animal Kingdom - great movie.

Seen first season of Shameless. Pretty good show. My buddy from England refuses to watch it 'cos he doesn't think it would live up to the original British version.

[gabe]

Remember guys, Maia beat Munoz in their fight, even though Munoz took the Decision. I had big money on Munoz and sighed a big sigh of relief when he took the decision. I had given that fight to Maia.

[Vaughany]

Seen Animal Kingdom - great movie.

Seen first season of Shameless. Pretty good show. My buddy from England refuses to watch it 'cos he doesn't think it would live up to the original British version.

Yeah Animal Kingdom is best Auzzie movie I've seen for sure.... Joel Edgerton is one of my favourite up and coming actors along with Tom Hardy...both were awesome in Warrior.

Yee those who are big fans of Shameless in England are the type to say that it wouldn't work anywhere else...same case with the The Office. The UK version of Shameless is one of those tht u either love or hate...I personally couldn't watch a full episode. If anything I found tht it glorified everything tht is wrong with England today - lazy, unemployed, alcoholics claiming benefits and having dozens of kids with different women! But maybe Im reading too much in to it and over analyzing it for what it is (which I tend to do)!

[proposition joe]

Remember guys, Maia beat Munoz in their fight, even though Munoz took the Decision. I had big money on Munoz and sighed a big sigh of relief when he took the decision. I had given that fight to Maia.

Yeah I agree. I think that Maia should be a small favorite here. Mayhem mounted Bisping early in their fight. What will Maia do if he attains that position?

[Vaughany]

Remember guys, Maia beat Munoz in their fight, even though Munoz took the Decision. I had big money on Munoz and sighed a big sigh of relief when he took the decision. I had given that fight to Maia.

Yeah it was very close (especially round 3 tht could of gone either way and probly should of been a draw with Maia taking round 1 and Munoz round 2), and I remember being glad that I just took the fight to go distance prop and avoided betting on either straight-up. Regardless of who should of won, the biggest sin was tht Nelson "Doc" Hamilton gave Munoz all three rounds! Absolutely hilarious And I believe it was same night that Dave Hagen gave Ken Flo all three rounds against Nunes and Elkins all three against Omigawa. That dude should of been shot right there and then.

[Mr Handicapable]

Hey Mr. Vaughany....any leans on Condit/Nick Diaz? I'm guessing Condit by TKO if he's played at all since Diaz never gets tired?

[Vaughany]

Hey Mr. Vaughany....any leans on Condit/Nick Diaz? I'm guessing Condit by TKO if he's played at all since Diaz never gets tired?

Yeah, I lean Diaz but not at the current odds. Possibly Condit by TKO from cuts or something but I think Diaz by decision might be the best value play. For me though, Diaz/Condit FOTN will be free money and at +250 or better is better value than playing either straight-up! I dont know how this cant be a war that goes at very least 3 rounds. I doubt the likes of Nelson/Werdum, Pierce/Koscheck, Barao/Jorgensen or Herman/Starks will eclipse it. Couple of fights on undercard could be very exciting/entertaining such as Poirier vs Holloway and Caceres vs Figueroa but I still expect Condit/Diaz to get it just because it's main event and 5 rounds.

[gabe]

I expect Barao/Jorgensen to be a real FOTN candidate.

And you can't say, Werdum/Nelson could turn out to be an incredible fight.

[proposition joe]

I expect Barao/Jorgensen to be a real FOTN candidate.

And you can't say, Werdum/Nelson could turn out to be an incredible fight.

Barao Sub of the Night and Werdum/Nelson to go the distance would be my plays on those fights. I think Vaughany is right about Condit/Diaz FOTN althought I think that it will be rather one-sided and very similar to Nate's fight with Cerrrone.

[gabe]

Yeah, only way I see Condit winning is if he catches him, a la his fight vs Rory MacDonald.

[Vaughany]

I expect Barao/Jorgensen to be a real FOTN candidate.

And you can't say, Werdum/Nelson could turn out to be an incredible fight.

U rarely get a HW fight that is exciting for more than a round though unless somebody like Struve is involved. Can you name one in recent times?

[Vaughany]

I expect Barao/Jorgensen to be a real FOTN candidate.

And you can't say, Werdum/Nelson could turn out to be an incredible fight.

But yeah I meant to say tht Barao Jorgensen will be the biggest contender and may hedge with tht. 143 is a card Im really looking forward to betting wise

[gabe]

U rarely get a HW fight that is exciting for more than a round though unless somebody like Struve is involved. Can you name one in recent times?

It could be a 1 round fight and still get FOTN. Einemo's last fight was a round and a half and it got it, beating the bloody JDS/Carwin brawl, Florian/Nunes, Maia/Munoz, and Cerrone/Rocha.

[Vaughany]

It could be a 1 round fight and still get FOTN. Einemo's last fight was a round and a half and it got it, beating the bloody JDS/Carwin brawl, Florian/Nunes, Maia/Munoz, and Cerrone/Rocha.

True, but JDS was a one sided beatdown...wasnt much of a fight for JDS!

[gabe]

True, but JDS was a one sided beatdown...wasnt much of a fight for JDS!

And Diaz/Penn wasn't a one sided beatdown?

or Nate/Cerrone, for that matter.

[Vaughany]

And Diaz/Penn wasn't a one sided beatdown?

or Nate/Cerrone, for that matter.

Depends how u classify a one-sided beatdown. Penn and Cerrone never got dropped. Penn won the first round in many people's opinion inc' mine. Cerrone came back in the second and did okay, dropping Nate with leg kicks.
Also Dos Santos vs Carwin was a three-rounder...these five round main events have a slight advantage. Not sayin it doesnt happen - Barboza/Etim would of been a better example from the other night - tht was pretty one-sided and Etim ended up unconcious but still walked away with FOTN money - but it's all about percentages.

[gabe]

Depends how u classify a one-sided beatdown. Penn and Cerrone never got dropped. Penn won the first round in many people's opinion inc' mine. Cerrone came back in the second and did okay, dropping Nate with leg kicks. Also Dos Santos vs Carwin was a three-rounder...these five round main events have a slight advantage. Not sayin it doesnt happen - Barboza/Etim would of been a better example from the other night - tht was pretty one-sided and Etim ended up unconcious but still walked away with FOTN money - but it's all about percentages.

lol i wasn't arguing diaz/condit having the best chances, i was arguing that a) one sided beatdowns, b) short fights, and c) heavyweight fights can all be FOTN.

clearly diaz/condit has the best shot at being FOTN. my point was that you shouldn't count the other fights out as easily as you did.

[ghost kid]

Animal Kingdom is good. This he is right about.

[Vaughany]

UFC on FX 1 play:


10 units on Schilling at +140 to win 14 units.


Pineda has a big experience advantage but I think Schilling is worth a play at these odds....has a decent chance to get the submission in this one. Down to +115 now on BM

[BIGDAY]

I like Neer at +odds also.

[The HOFF]

UFC on FX 1 play:


10 units on Schilling at +140 to win 14 units.


Pineda has a big experience advantage but I think Schilling is worth a play at these odds....has a decent chance to get the submission in this one. Down to +115 now on BM

I was looking at this one too.

[Vaughany]

I like Neer at +odds also.

Yeah waiting to see the Pinnacle odds, will post my thoughts on it when they are out

[FightFightFight]

Spare a po' boy a link to a schilling fight?

[Vaughany]

UFC on FX 1 play:


10 units on Schilling at +140 to win 14 units.


Pineda has a big experience advantage but I think Schilling is worth a play at these odds....has a decent chance to get the submission in this one. Down to +115 now on BM

I was looking at this one too.

Schilling now at +110 on BM, was -115 at one point

[Vaughany]

Spare a po' boy a link to a schilling fight?

http://video.thescore.com/watch/scor...s-vs-schilling

Can see Pat posting on this forum as well... http://s7.zetaboards.com/The_Guillot...pic/8449662/1/

[BIGDAY]

5d quickly moved to EV on Neer. BM moving a bit too. I think Neer should be -120 to -150. However, thats with me seeing him getting the fight to the ground. If fight stays standing, Neer could be in for a long night.

[Vaughany]

5d quickly moved to EV on Neer. BM moving a bit too. I think Neer should be -120 to -150. However, thats with me seeing him getting the fight to the ground. If fight stays standing, Neer could be in for a long night.

Yeah, all about Neer's strategy and ability to take it to the ground and utilise his elbows from the top. Im hoping he's matured and will realise that he needs to just make sure he wins fights to stay in the UFC rather than be crowd friendly and stand n bang! I'll post my thoughts on it in a moment..

[BIGDAY]

Yeah, all about Neer's strategy and ability to take it to the ground and utilise his elbows from the top. Im hoping he's matured and will realise that he needs to just make sure he wins fights to stay in the UFC rather than be crowd friendly and stand n bang! I'll post my thoughts on it in a moment..

Completely agree. If only we could know if they will 100% follow a gameplan.