[CubanLinx]

I follow boxing real close and make my money on big fights.

Andre Ward, who has been very inactive in recent years, is a favorite to jump up in weight class and defeat the best Light Heavyweight in the world. For me this fight is a toss up, with a slight inclination toward a Ward victory.

I can say with utmost confidence, however, that this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Ward was not a puncher at 168, and whatever power he did have will not carry to 175. And While Kovalev is a power puncher, he's going up against one of the best defensive fighters on the planet, who hasn't been anywhere near the canvas in a decade.

All things considered, here is my probability breakdown for the fight:

FOR THE KO:
Ward: 5%
Kovalev: 12%

FOR THE DECISION:
Ward: 44%
Kovalev: 35%
Draw: 4%

This, to me, is an accurate assessment of how this fight may play out. Even giving a more conservative figure, I cannot realistically put the chances of a Kovalev decision lower than 30%. He isn't a one trick pony: This guy CAN BOX.

5dimes current line on a Kovalev decision:
+560 =

15.2%.

This is a steal in value. Granted it is not favorable that this line wins, but it is absolutely worth putting down a small percentage of your bankroll. Or, if you want to play it more conservatively and increase your chances of winning, bet on the fight to go the full distance, which I predict has an 82% chance of happening, at -165, or 62.2%.

Any Boxing fans or bettors out there who wanna swap ideas, feel free to message me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I follow boxing real close and make my money on big fights.

Andre Ward, who has been very inactive in recent years, is a favorite to jump up in weight class and defeat the best Light Heavyweight in the world. For me this fight is a toss up, with a slight inclination toward a Ward victory.

I can say with utmost confidence, however, that this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Ward was not a puncher at 168, and whatever power he did have will not carry to 175. And While Kovalev is a power puncher, he's going up against one of the best defensive fighters on the planet, who hasn't been anywhere near the canvas in a decade.

All things considered, here is my probability breakdown for the fight:

FOR THE KO:
Ward: 5%
Kovalev: 12%

FOR THE DECISION:
Ward: 44%
Kovalev: 35%
Draw: 4%

This, to me, is an accurate assessment of how this fight may play out. Even giving a more conservative figure, I cannot realistically put the chances of a Kovalev decision lower than 30%. He isn't a one trick pony: This guy CAN BOX.

5dimes current line on a Kovalev decision:
+560 =

15.2%.

This is a steal in value. Granted it is not favorable that this line wins, but it is absolutely worth putting down a small percentage of your bankroll. Or, if you want to play it more conservatively and increase your chances of winning, bet on the fight to go the full distance, which I predict has an 82% chance of happening, at -165, or 62.2%.

Any Boxing fans or bettors out there who wanna swap ideas, feel free to message me.

Thanks for the breakdown Cuban. I think Ward wins this but I agree that there's a lot of value here. Kovalev is a great fighter and these big fights between top guys tend to go the distance. Keep up the good work!

[CubanLinx]

Fight goes distance prop just moved to -155. I'm guessing the Euro money will be coming in all week, and they'll be looking for a Kovalev KO. Wait until fight day, and if that -155 moves any more...bet it big.

[CubanLinx]

1 point swing and I'd look like a genius right now lol. Good fight either way. Hope some of you made some $$ on this one.

[terpkeg]

I did. Thanks for taking the time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fight goes distance prop just moved to -155. I'm guessing the Euro money will be coming in all week, and they'll be looking for a Kovalev KO. Wait until fight day, and if that -155 moves any more...bet it big.

Was a good bet and Kovalev arguably should have gotten the win. Thanks for the tip.

[KingHawkins]

Kovalev won that fight for me. Let's see if Walters gets robbed tonight.