Cage pages has a write up on the main fights that came out.. Worth a look...
http://cagepages.com/2015/10/17/ufc-...s-predictions/
 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
-
10-19-15 11:30 AM #71
-
10-20-15 12:28 AM #72
Copy and paste -
Potential Prelim Sleepers – The top DraftKings favorite of the night competes in the UFC Fight Night prelims, boasting a cap hit of $11,000, that man is Steven Ray. Is he worthy? Justifiably so, as his finishing rate and aggressive nature helps warrant the top spot on the charts. A couple other fighters to keep on the radar are Aislin Daly, a very powerful puncher with underrated submission skills. Scott Askham, whom takes on a decision fighter, and has ten finishes to his record. An American to finish it off, Bubba Bush, has four finishes in his last five fights.
-
10-20-15 12:59 AM #73
Aislin Daly is a powerful puncher? Lרררררררררררררררררררl
-
10-20-15 02:30 AM #74
Best capping tips for this event probably come from the UK are my thoughts anyways with these write ups.. All UK fighters mostly..
Originally Posted by mirinquads
Just started capping these prelims and sharing my findings.. Got any dog pick suggestions Miri? You should know these guys..
This part 1 and 2 write up from MMAmania is a decent read IMO - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/10/19/9...pt1-dublin-mma
-
10-20-15 02:46 AM #75
Cathal Pendred +220..... Hmmmm?
Thinking this might be worth the dog play. Cathal even though he is slow of foot, and a boring average fighter in general he simply finds ways to win fights that he's not expected to win.. He's really durable and a decision machine. Coming off a loss and fighting on home turf in this one..
Anyways, Pendred was on a crazy win streak before losing to John Howard by decision...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cathal-Pendred-64373
Tom Breese undefeated taller fighter that trains at tri star.. Only 8 pro fights to his name and only one fight deep into the UFC. He does have some hype riding behind him though.. Need to watch more video on him still but this fight caught my eye.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tom-Breese-45986
The over 2.5 should be a lock...
UFC Fight Night 76 - Welterweight 3 rounds - 3Arena - Dublin, Ireland - UFC Fight Pass Sat 10/24 1901 Cathal Pendred +220 o2½ -160 2:00PM 1902 Tom Breese -260 u2½ +140
Decision prop-
1907 Pendred wins by 3 round decision +305 Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-20-15 at 02:19 PM.
-
10-20-15 01:26 PM #76
The only times Pendred wins its because he bought the judges...
-
10-20-15 02:03 PM #77
Breese has an unhealthy habit of getting stucked at the fence though, while cathal is quite strong. I doubt that pendred can win by only doing this the whole time but, if nothing happens through two rounds that is a possibly path of victory for pendred. Most likely breese wins however he wants off course. Originally Posted by PaperTrail07
-
10-20-15 03:04 PM #78
This is exactly why I'm looking to bet fairly heavy on the over and maybe even the "fight goes the distance" prop at -140 in this one.. Even at -160 I think there is value on that 2.5 over.. Should be like -280 or something IMO.. Originally Posted by bjpenn85
Pendred will be able to grind out this fight like he always does.. His TD defense should be good enough to keep this one standing as well..
-
10-20-15 03:52 PM #79
Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Why would pendred risk being taken down? He is the grinder, he is the one that wants to grind. Breese would love to have this fight standing up, peppering that slow irish potato sack.
-
10-20-15 04:02 PM #80
What I was trying to say - Originally Posted by bjpenn85
I'd prefer the fight to remain standing as Breese has a bunch of sub wins on his record.. I'm gonna hammer the over 2.5 so I don't want Pendred taken down and sub'd out.. I said I think Pendred has decent enough TD defense if the taller fighter Breese decides to shoot in at some point and go for a take down.....
Pendred can take a peppering standing for 3 rounds..
-
10-20-15 06:08 PM #81
[QUOTE=JIBBBY;24680497]What I was trying to say -
I'd prefer the fight to remain standing as Breese has a bunch of sub wins on his record.. I'm gonna hammer the over 2.5 so I don't want Pendred taken down and sub'd out.. I said I think Pendred has decent enough TD defense if the taller fighter Breese decides to shoot in at some point and go for a take down.....
Maybe. Not likely. If pendred doesnt regularly control breese he will even lose a split decision. I think the disparity on the feet will cause pendred so much problem that it will be difficult to focus. Often big skill disparity in mma outweighs style, For instance if the ground game of pendred would be as sick as for instance damien maia, then breeses striking will probably be zapped 50%. But since breeses striking is 30-50% better than pendred, but STILL.....but STILL is so good that he doesnt really get frightned to get taken down or controlled, as he can accurately time pendrerds takedown timing most of the time it wont alter the dynamic on the feet. Pendred doesnt have the typical double leg takedown as you see in american wrestleres, his takedowns usually comes fom the fence. Therefor my predictions statistically speaking, obvoisly in my own head without any clear numbers to refer to, will at least win a convincing decion or better. The over would cash over 50%, but how much more, i dont have a clue. Its not a as safe as howard/pendreds fight were both fighters seemingly are incapable of finishing the other....
-
10-20-15 08:18 PM #82
^Simply put it's very hard to finish Pendred, that's just keeping it simple BJpenn.. Simple usually works..
I tell ya another fighter on this card that is a grinder and also very hard to finish whom usually out works his opponents is Darin Elkins.. I expect a workman like effort from Pendred and Elkins on this card.. More then likely Elkins wins his fight by decision as where Pendred more then likely goes to decision but might lose on the cards (ifffy).....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Darren-Elkins-22094
Check this prop for value..
Pending10/24/15 1:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2011 Elkins wins by 3 round decision +148* vs Not Elkins by 3 round decision
Reasoning - (I'll really try to break it down) Jibs capping 101... Youtube vid is all I can post...
This write up below gave me the idea for starters and it makes perfect sense.. I'm on the same page.. This is why I read the articles..
145 lbs.: Darren Elkins vs. Robert Whiteford
From 2011 to the beginning of 2013, Darren Elkins (18-5) rattled off five straight victories, including an upset of Diego Brandao at UFC 146. He’s since alternated losses and wins, most recently dropping a decision to Nova Uniao’s Hacran Dias in Dec. 2014.
He’s finished 10 opponents, though only one in UFC.
Finland’s Robert Whiteford (12-2) began his UFC career against then-rising-prospect Jimy Hettes, who handed Whiteford his first submission loss via rear-naked choke in the second. He’s since won two straight, including a brutal knockout of Paul Redmond in Glasgow last July.
He’s knocked out six opponents and lost just once since his debut.
If you were to take Elkins’ entire playbook and cram it onto a page, it would read: TAKEDOWN WRESTLE TAKEDOWN PUNCH SOMETIMES WRESTLE. It doesn’t matter if he can’t get down his opponent, he is going to shoot in over and over and over unless you hit him hard enough to make him stop.
I don’t think Whiteford can.
Elkins survived some ridiculous punishment from Brandao and Stephens -- it took Chad Mendes’ nuclear punches to put him away. Whiteford may land a few good shots, but he’s not stopping Elkins from doing Elkins. In other words, 30-27s across the board for the American.
Liking Elkins to pull out the win in this one.. -140 is decent value even besides the prop...
UFC Fight Night 76 - Featherweight 3 rounds - 3Arena - Dublin, Ireland - UFC Fight Pass Sat 10/24 2001 Robert Whiteford +125 o2½ -185 1:30PM 2002 Darren Elkins -145 u2½ +160
As you guys know this is Darren Elkins fighting style as seen in the vid below.. He will be able to take down Whiteford at will in this fight is my guess.... Whiteford is a stand up banger and he fights aggressive.. That will play into the wrestling game plan of Elkins..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-20-15 at 08:38 PM.
-
10-20-15 09:10 PM #83
UFC.com's fighter profiles have info that isn't available anywhere else sometimes. Originally Posted by JIBBBY
http://www.ufc.com/fighter/tom-breeseTom Breese
What ranks and titles have you held? I'm a BJJ purple belt under Firas Zahabi, I was a British junior champion in freestyle wrestling and I was the BAMMA British Welterweight Champion in professional MMA
Not sure what british junior champion in wrestling means, is that like state champion or national champion in the united states? Maybe neither? If Tom Breese has a decent amateur wrestling background that could be the reason he's the favorite.
If it goes to a decision Cathal could take the hometown decision like he has so many times in fights he lost. Could be best to stay away from that one.Last edited by Sanity Check; 10-20-15 at 09:21 PM.
-
10-20-15 09:36 PM #84
Yep under Biography I do try and read alot of the times if I don't really know the fighters...... Tom Breese is a good example of that, thanks.. Originally Posted by Sanity Check
Sanity, I'm on the OVER 2.5 with the Pendred fight, haven't yet pulled the trigger on the Pendred straight win at +220.. I may try it though....Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-20-15 at 09:39 PM.
-
10-21-15 11:04 AM #85
Couple of final event write ups if anyone wants to check -
http://combatpress.com/2015/10/toe-t...d-predictions/
Surprisingly both the combat press boys are not taking Elkins.. I'm losing confidence in these guys write ups especially if Elkins wins... Both are on Norman Parke as well.. Hmmm?
Duffy/Porrier head to head breakdown - Bleacher report - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-toe-breakdown
-
10-21-15 04:07 PM #86
poirier itd +328 is golden
-
10-21-15 04:42 PM #87
Duffy concussion
fight is off
-
10-21-15 04:43 PM #88
apparently Duffy's training involved his opponent kicking him in the head
-
10-21-15 05:18 PM #89
That blows. Originally Posted by yisman
-
10-21-15 05:25 PM #90
-
10-21-15 05:35 PM #91
What a shit storm.
-
10-21-15 06:03 PM #92
Shitty card now.. Yep all my bets refunded.. Duffy you idiot....
-
10-21-15 11:27 PM #93
Take the Goat Pendred this weekend boys, dare I say it.. But thank me Later..
-
10-21-15 11:29 PM #94
Still better than Bellator...
-
10-21-15 11:47 PM #95
True. Originally Posted by UncleChael
-
10-22-15 02:55 AM #96
With ya Unc on this and probably against my better judgment.. I'm taking the over and I did splash Pendred for small with the decision win prop.. Originally Posted by UncleChael
I'm pretty confident this fight goes over the 2.5 rounds, but not so confident Pendred can pull out the decision win like he typically does.. Rolling with it anyways..
$160.00 $100.00 Pending 10/24/15 1:30pm UFC Fighting 1901 Cathal Pendred/Tom Breese Over 2½ -160*
$50.00 $152.50 Pending 10/24/15 2:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1907 Pendred wins by 3 round decision +305* vs Not Pendred by 3 round decision
-
10-22-15 06:50 AM #97
Maybe I should start betting on main events being canceled.
-
10-22-15 04:12 PM #98
Paddy Holohan and Louis Smolka are the real MVPs!
-
10-23-15 01:03 AM #99
This goat? Originally Posted by UncleChael
https://sqor.com/posts/f077830f-b971...d-635d4962b87b
https://sqor.com/posts/672f2920-8dc0...5-80ff1bc3f921
Looks like King Conor is teaching him some new tricks.
He might have a chance after all!
-
10-23-15 10:01 AM #100
Oh, youre back mr.sagehasntprovedanything! The best 19 year old the world has seen and with the best fundamentals - Zahabi. Originally Posted by Sanity Check
How does that give you the confidence to bet on MMA in the future? Youre more or less blind...
-
10-23-15 11:34 AM #101
This card starts early Saturday morning here in the States.. That sucks, I'm betting light and only a few fights on this event.. Can't get a feel on alot of the fighters in the prelims and I might be asleep still when they go down...
Not that thrilled for this ufc card for some reason.. I guess I was looking forward to the Duffy/Porrier fight more then thought.....
-
10-23-15 12:20 PM #102
god after 3 weeks this is what we have to look forward to...
this card has taken a beating
-
10-23-15 01:04 PM #103
This fight card went from being on tv to being on ufc fight pass, can they screw this card up anymore?
-
10-23-15 01:22 PM #104
Probably the weakest UFC card of the year.. It's got that feel.... This would even be a piss poor card for a Fight Night free card watch..
Bellator card tonight blows too, but this is a close second IMO... Gotta work with what we got though..
-
10-23-15 01:48 PM #105
Firas Zahabi teaches that jab-for-3-to-5-rounds-and-run-away style of fighting both GSP and Rory MacDonald have used in the past. If you ever wondered who you have to thank for GSP running away from Koscheck and jabbing him in the face for 5 rounds to a boring decision, Firas Zahabi could be the man for the job. Originally Posted by bjpenn85
I think Rory MacDonald didn't develop good stand up and start knocking people out until he left tristar and did his kickboxing/stand up training with people other than Firas Zahabi. I think Rory still does his wrestling and grappling training at tristar with Firas. But when it comes to kickboxing he does it somewhere else. The same might be said about other tristar fighters. I'm pretty sure Tom Breese, Kajan Johnson and a lot of other tristar guys do their wrestling and grappling at tristar, then do their boxing/kickboxing/standup training somewhere else.
I wouldn't take anything Firas says about striking fundamentals too seriously, bro.
Firas has never had a history of developing good stand up fighters.
Reply With Quote
