1. #1
    fitguy67
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    "Fighting Fit" Betting Journal: 2015-08-17 and beyond

    This'll be a thread to put all my personal plays in one place: from their conception, through to their execution...and autopsy.

    I've developed my own BSP ("bet-sizing protocol"...what most people rather-vaguely call "money management") over the years and will be applying it here.

    It's based on an indefinite (as many as are needed by the action that unfolds) number of separate banks, each set at the start with the same fixed $ amount that is ideally a convenient multiple of 30...as each bank will be comprised of exactly 30 units (meaning each unit is 3.33% of its specific bank...and will be adjusted immediately after each graded play).

    About half of your existing overall bankroll dedicated to sport-betting works well here. For a $9k roll, specify the virtual initial bank for each "tray" (or "project" if you prefer) as $4,500 which nicely breaks down into 30 units, each of $150...doing so means each unit begins as a nice conservative 1.67% or so of the overall actual roll at the outset...but as action is graded, the specific tray-banks (and thus the $-definitions used for subsequent plays) will swing greatly above and below that of their initial values...the power of loosely-defined "Kelly streaks" (to both magnify gains into a heater...and to minimize losses into a cooler)
    ____________

    To keep the numbers small and reduce the need for zeros, commas and decimal points, for the purposes of this thread, everything will be based on the following theoretical starting numbers

    full bank: 900
    virtual bank of each tray created: 450
    initial unit within each tray: 15


    so intial units will be "15" based on an initial bank of exactly "450" out of an overall initial balance of approximately "900" (or you may use any other multiple of 60/30/1 if you prefer...it's just the ratios that are important...and the consistency with which you apply/pro-rate your numbers as the action unfolds) ...
    ______________
    the only other essential thing to note at the outset is that within each tray (project) bets will be either

    for dog-priced items: treat each as a single play TO WIN 1u exactly
    (eg. at +120: -12.5/+15 intially, -0.833u/+1u generally)

    or

    for fave-priced items: run each as a leg of a seq.parlay-play, each commencing with a risk of 1u and snowballing into additional legs until an even-or-greater net payout is achieved
    eg. for a -250, you play as a leg1 of a parlay to be unfolded manually
    so -15/+6 for now, and if it wins...wait for another fave-play to become available to this tray and play it -21/+whatever...stop as soon as you've successfully created a winning "dog" play out of your "fave" legs...if it dies before fruition, you're only out the initial 1u

    so maximum risk on any "play" (ie. either the "dog-to-win-1u" straight-ups OR the "chain of faves risking 1u/targeting at least 1u" composites) is 1u or 1/30th of the funds available to that project's bank...and the typical win targeted is for 1u but may exceed that occasionally on the final leg of an all-fave parlay
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-17-15 at 08:26 PM.
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  2. #2
    fitguy67
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    ok, let's get started with my first play hit a few days ago...and a better entry price is easily available now

    t1/1 (tray1, play 1) aug23, Stout +109: -13.76/+15

    where the "15" used as the target amount here is based on being 1/30th of the initial t1-bank of 450, which is set to about half of a theoretical full bank for this thread of 900...
    (to pro-rate appropriately...divide your full-bank by 60...and henceforth multiply all numbers you see in this thread by the ratio of that over 15...the first play of every tray will start based on 1.67% of your initial full-bank but will diverge substantially as action proceeds and trays are created and streaks are capitalized on)

    if you just can't live without your "units"... just divide everything u see by 15
    thus here -0.8333u/+1u...(but i won't continue to do so)...
    my excel is set up to standardize everything to these starting levels that i've grown comfortable with...but if you don't like "celsius" and want everything in "fahrenheit" it's easy enough to do...just divide by 15 right thru
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-18-15 at 06:28 AM.

  3. #3
    fitguy67
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    a "first pass" overview of what's comin' down the MMA-betting pike


    at first blush i think there's massive value in Matt over Kelvin...man-tough vs. kid-talented...

    also in Condit vs. Robbie...Condit without a serious ongoing TD-threat to distract him (a la Hendricks/GSP) is a dangerous man (picture vs. Diaz), and not nearly (if at all) as outgunned as the price suggests

    also in Cupcake...agree with Miri that RR hasn't had her bell rung yet...and Meisha's the only one so far with a demonstrated ability to hang with Rousey long enough to nudge that probability /eventuality along...bitch hasn't been close to being hurt yet...& once that happens we're in uncharted water...at the "RR-household-name" price-excess we're dealing with here, it'll def be worth a small pop on a "to Win a few units"...(in retrospect...that Correia was not a live dog at all but a ridiculous story-line scrub...Cat WAS worth the pop--despite how stupidly she pissed away the opportunity--but this time Meisha has a snowball's chance, where the others didn't because she's more likely to not insta-melt, has some power, better sub-d than anyone else...and good boxing...)...first time in RR's last 3 fight's i took an auto-stab that i actually felt there was a case for lightning to strike...and pay enough to cover for my Cat, and Bethe donations in the process

    also Gus is definitely a great play (at +300)...the ABC MMA-math is all fukked up with Gus, Rumble, DC...only guy that'd go 3-0 in a full round-robin of these 3 contenders and the real champ Jones...is Jones...+300 is a steal on the only guy to fully-belong in the cage with Jones

    also like Bader over Rashad at small-dog price like this...spot reminds me a bit of Bader steamrolling a paycheck-motivated Rampage...Rashad may surprise and still be hungry (perhaps spurred on by television-chair rivalry with DC)...Bader at plus-money probably worth the ticket to find out

    Poirier also worth the double-payout price against Duffy who quite honestly hasn't ever faced anyone of this calibre MMMA-wise (unless you wanna count the younger version of CMcGod from a few years back--who I doubt was in the league of current-day Poirier)
    ______________

    a LOT of intriguing fights with apparently very-live dogs, some at surprisingly attractive prices...

    i'll fine-tune all these musings into an actual set of a few plays a bit later...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-18-15 at 06:29 AM.

  4. #4
    fitguy67
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    basic rule is that there's only one play in each tray at a time...so as more plays come out of the hopper, we create more trays as necessary to hold them (we'll probably end up with about 8 of 'em...with the lower-numbered ones getting more action)...

    once a play in any tray is graded that tray's bank (and thus unit) is adjusted accordingly and the next available play plugs into it when ready...first available new item attached to lowest numbered tray available...

    it's like playing the board game monopoly...almost impossible to "just explain" in words...but easy to see it in action...so when the first generation (event)'s plays are graded we'll see our bet-sizes begin to percolate in growth-promoting, decay-minimizing ways as streaks (both winning and losing) hit our trays' segregated rolls as they fill up with our well-considered betting items

    in the next important entry here, i'll place a number of additional "to win 1u" dog-plays (based on #3 above), each into a new tray...

    at this early stage, separating banks (and the units derived therefrom) don't mean shit...but once some plays are graded and follow-up plays generated, the bet-sizing method behind my madness will begin to emerge...

    extra accounting is required to keep track of the action...but I've found it's well worth it
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-17-15 at 09:05 PM.

  5. #5
    fitguy67
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    t2/1.1 arantes -183: -15/+8.20 (per theo. full-roll of 900, see #1)

    (tray 2/play1.leg1: -1u/+0.546u)

    if successful will roll 23.20 (or 1.546u) into leg 2
    ___________
    will have a few more faves (thus new parlay leg1's to be added to later) in future posts...candidates at this stage are E.Silva, Holloway, Mercier, deLima, Beal, Silverio...this card i lean more to the faves than usual

    and two more dogs (Trinaldo & Cote) to probably add to Stout as well...

    so we'll end up with 6-10 trays (each starting with its own bank of 450/its own unit-size of 15) each awaiting its single result (and the subsequent calculation of its tray-specific unit-size) before we proceed into the next event
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-19-15 at 05:47 PM.

  6. #6
    fitguy67
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    t3/1.1 Beal-150: -15/+10

    result: hosed by Canadian judging...

    B3/u3 change from initial 450/15 to 435/14.50
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-23-15 at 06:37 PM.

  7. #7
    fitguy67
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    t4/1 trinaldo +340: -4.41/+15

  8. #8
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    t2/1.1 arantes -183: -15/+8.20 (per theo. full-roll of 900, see #1)

    (tray 2/play1.leg1: -1u/+0.546u)

    if successful will roll 23.20 (or 1.546u) into leg 2
    result: W so t2/1.2 will be -23.2/+_______ (will defer any changes to B2/u2 till this manually-rolled parlay resolves itself)

  9. #9
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    t1/1 (tray1, play 1) aug23, Stout +109: -13.76/+15
    result: L, moving B1/u1 to 436.24/14.54

  10. #10
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    t4/1 trinaldo +340: -4.41/+15
    result: W, B4/u4 moves to 465/15.5

  11. #11
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    result: L, moving B1/u1 to 436.24/14.54
    time for t1/2: cote+145: -10.03/+14.54

  12. #12
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    result: W so t2/1.2 will be -23.2/+_______ (will defer any changes to B2/u2 till this manually-rolled parlay resolves itself)
    roll into holloway-230: -23.20/+10.09

  13. #13
    JIBBBY
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    Good work Fit.... Looks like you came out on top tonight!!!

  14. #14
    fitguy67
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    thanks, this is more of a bet-sizing development project than a picking thread per se...blogging "explanations" of what i'm figuring out as i go along is better than just doing it without trying to make sure it makes sense

    seems like up a bit overall as two trays(#2,4) were up and two (#1,3) down but as all plays are plus-money equivalents (either SU-dogs or faves sequentially parlayed till "plus-payout or bust"achieved) a good start...the winning trays will sport proportionately-higher target bet-sizes next round, and the losers will have lower target-units consistent with their slightly-shrunken bank
    Last edited by fitguy67; 08-24-15 at 07:23 AM.

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