[LVBOUND]

Hello guys,

As we venture in to the 2011 MLB season I am starting my MLB system I have been working on for the past 3 seasons.

Each season I pick 4 good teams and play them at HOME only and 4 Bad teams and bet AGAINST them when they are on the ROAD.

I make adjustments when needed.


Here are my 8 teams this year, if you got a few minutes and dont mind please tell me who your teams would be for all 8. I also try and do two from each League to keep my balance. so 2 good AL and 2 good NL etc


Top 4 (Bet them at Home)
BOS (Feel great bout this)
TEX (Most unsure pick of the 8, want to go NYY, but the juice is so higher for the team NAME)
PHI (#1 pick even with the injuries)
ATL (I know it is the same div as the Phillies, but they are really impressive so far)

Bottom 4 (Bet against them on the Road)
SEA (Prob just stay away from games with King Felix)
KC (It was them of CLE, and took them)
ARI (Not really sure what to do here, I thought Hou, but remembered how HOU played last year)
SD (Without Gonzo I think they are done)
Thanks alot.

Matt

[Squirrel]

Get ready for some serious juiced up lines if thats your betting strategy!!

Fade the best away from home and the worst teams at home .... much better idea IMO.

BOL for the season

[illfuuptn]

How about 4 most overrated: BOS SFG CWS NYY
and underrated: TB ATL HOU CLE

So you went to Vegas to become a professional and this is your betting strategy? Do you actually win in baseball?
If so, I'm dropping out of college right now because it must be the easiest thing in the world to win. I thought it would at least be kind of hard.

[LVBOUND]

Get ready for some serious juiced up lines if thats your betting strategy!!

Fade the best away from home and the worst teams at home .... much better idea IMO.

BOL for the season

No thanks Ill stick to my strategy that has won 3 years in a row.

thanks for your help Goof

[LVBOUND]

How about 4 most overrated: BOS SFG CWS NYY
and underrated: TB ATL HOU CLE

So you went to Vegas to become a professional and this is your betting strategy? Do you actually win in baseball?
If so, I'm dropping out of college right now because it must be the easiest thing in the world to win. I thought it would at least be kind of hard.

I guess you didnt see that this won 85K last year and 81 the year before?

Maybe your momma needs to buy you glasses.

Thanks for the help Idiot!

[LVBOUND]

Listen here guys, if you do not want to give advice that is fine, but then just do not comment at all? I am just asking you opinion. I am not asking you to change the question to fit your answer.

Either leave some advice on the teams I got or tell me what you think would be better teams or shut the **** up ok?

[Ice House]

I hear ya man there are so many negative people on this forum that just want to bash people's ideas

[Ice House]

I like your idea. Here are my top 4 and bottom 4.

Top 4
1.Phillies ( wish they would have picked up Michael Young)
2.Rangers (Pitching is very average, but man can they hit!)
3.Red Sox (Concerned about this teams starting pitching besides Lester)
4.Giants ( extremely concerned about this teams ability to score runs)

Bottom 4
1.Royals (triple A team)
2.Indians (wouldn't bet against Fausto)
3.Padres ( wouldn't bet against Latos)
4.Pirates ( these guys just straight up suck donkey balls)

[Ice House]

Hell the top 4 teams will have great records at home and the bottom 4 will have terrible road records.... might just be on to something

[Ice House]

Have you guys seen Ubaldo Jimenez pitch this spring? what about Stauffer for San Diego? Does he have ace stuff?

[LVBOUND]

Ice,

If you want to see how I did last year check out this link

http://www.sendspace.com/file/43a55c

[Brian891]

LV g's picks does something pretty similar with a no home sweep chase system. i did very well last year and also, tgunn posts baseball crusher in service plays. that also does quite well from may to august, then all bets r off. I am a huge braves fan, and think they r a great pick. What r your thoughts on brewers? they can hit, and have better pitching than the rangers.

[Ice House]

I was unable to download that for some reason. So based on this the picks should be

Cardinals ML-Thursday
Phillies ML -Friday

wouldn't the Red Sox vs Rangers game be canceled out since it is 2 top 4 teams or you would you still go with Texas?

[Ice House]

when does Greinke return?

[face]

i don't think royals are so bad. at least in spring training i've been making money on them. i know regular season is different, but maybe they have talented AAA team. just saying.

[Jericholic]

I like the idea.

Here are mine:

Top 4 Home Teams:
1. Philadelphia (I think they have enough depth to overcome their early injuries)
2. Boston (Pitching is a bit of a question mark, but man is their offense loaded)
3. Atlanta (The only concern I have about them is replacing Wagner, but I think one of their young guns will step up)
4. Minnesota (They were great at home last year and I don't think that will change this year)

Bottom 4 Road Teams:

1. Kansas City (Help is on the way, but they will still be awful this year)
2. Seattle (Decent pitching, but zero offense)
3. Pittsburgh (Until they finish a season above .500 they belong on this list)
4. Arizona ( I don't like any team that has Ian Kennedy as their #1 starter)

[Squirrel]

No thanks Ill stick to my strategy that has won 3 years in a row. thanks for your help Goof

Freak. You asked for peoples opinions on the teams, I said I would fade the good ones on the road and back the poor ones at home - I even used the words IMO and even said BOL for the season.

You're just another "ive made thousands in the past" prick who cant take any sort of criticism it seems.

[InTheRed]

Squirrel does make a valid point. The way you have this set up, you'll be making a TON of -200 bets. To BREAK EVEN you have to hit 67+%

Who were your teams from 2010? A very simple fact check will tell us what you hit and what you made unit wise. All you have to do is take the home record for the good teams and the road record for the bad teams and add them together, if its below 67% you lost money.

The way he suggested to do it would give you much better odds. You'd be getting + money almost all the time. Doing it that way lowers your winning % to under 50%.

[InTheRed]

Hell, even doing what you want to do by taking the RL makes a lot more sense.

[illfuuptn]

Make a thread where you use this system and if it wins I'll give you 100k if you win $1 this year.

[LVBOUND]

Freak. You asked for peoples opinions on the teams, I said I would fade the good ones on the road and back the poor ones at home - I even used the words IMO and even said BOL for the season.

You're just another "ive made thousands in the past" prick who cant take any sort of criticism it seems.

Just frustrated better now. Sorry

[Squirrel]

Just frustrated better now. Sorry

I seriously wasnt having a dig, each to their own - whatever wins for ya works for ya.

BOL

[Robber]

phils (my 1 team easily. unmatched rotation plus the usual lineup aside from werth)
red sox (5 legit starters plus a very good lineup)
giants (rotation among best)
braves (underrated team with a lot of talent. good mix of vets and youth)

are the four i like

kc (maybe in 3/4 years theyll have a good team with those prospects)
seattle (still no lineup and not much pen)
pirates (someday...)
indians

are the 4 i dont

[gryfyn1]

Others to think about


Minnesota, they were 53-28 in thier first year in the new park, they really seem to like
Detroit, they were 52-29 last year and 51-30 the year before at home despite a 168-159 over all record.
Colorado, a team on the rise and like Detriot they are 103-59 at home the last ywo years

Dont Buy Philly, not only will they be outrageously juiced favorites all the time they will struggle offensively.

Careful going against San Deigo, I think they have the potential to be alot better than people think, and they did have the 2nd best road record last year.

[LVBOUND]

Gryfyn very strong post.

Thanks man. I will do some revaulating tonight

[daneblazer]

Top: Boston, NY Yankees, Atlanta, Philadelphia

Bottom: KC, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cleveland

If the Reds are healthy they are intriguing. Not sure if I buy Texas's pitching, LAA will be better. Kansas City has a loaded farm system...this is the last season they are the doormat for a long time.

SD is scrappy and have that home field going for them. Yankees may not be there now, but they'll be there at the end.

[shinnman]

Ice,

If you want to see how I did last year check out this link

http://www.sendspace.com/file/43a55c

dont let them bother you, i will be betting against cle, sea, az, wash, pitt, and kc when they are on the road and the line is -150 or less, last yr this hit for 61% and since i will be using a labby system i will win some CASH CASH CASH, good luck to you

[goblue1988]

Top 4: Boston, Philadelphia, New York (AL), Detroit

Bottom 4: Chicago (NL), Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cleveland

[Ice House]

In general do you think it is smarter bet 1 team on the RL giving up 1.5 runs or do a 2 team ML Parlay?

What about for Friday...
A single bet on Rockies RL vs D-Backs

or

Rockies ML vs D-Backs and Phillies ML vs Astros
2 team Parlay.

I think the D-Backs and Astros both have talent on their rosters but both of these teams should be among the worst in the NL.

[Ice House]

Top 4: Boston, Philadelphia, New York (AL), Detroit

Bottom 4: Chicago (NL), Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cleveland

Chicago Cubs in your bottom 4 ... really?

what do you think about the Cubs winning the opener hosting the Pirates?

Dempster leading into Sunday's spring training rough start had 21 K's and only 3 BB's. He was not sharp on Sunday in his final tune-up but I would think he would get the W vs Cubs for the home opener. Kevin correia is on the bump for the Pirates... He has a pretty live fastball but I'm not sold on him yet.

[fakeandthedrive]

Nice idea. I would use a -1 RL .

[Ice House]

how do use a -1 RL

[jds07v]

Well, some books have the option of betting a team at -1. It is a bit safer than the runline, cheaper than the ML but more expensive than the RL. In the case that your team wins by 1, you get a push instead of a loss at the -1.5

If your book doesn't offer it, you can make your own -1 wager by betting the ML AND the RL. The Pair of 5's Sir thread in this baseball section detailed how to work out the pricing of this, and how much you would want to wager on each to create a true -1 if it is not offered by your book