1. 05-31-16 12:39 PM #36
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Right. I meant weak offense combined with good young pitcher makes Under good.
    That is a good looking under
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 05-31-16 12:39 PM #37
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Thoughts on Houston/Arizona FF UNDER 5?

    Played it this morning at Under 5 -115, it's -125 now. Not sure if I'm feeling good or bad about it.
    I'd feel good about it at -115.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 05-31-16 12:44 PM #38
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    This Houston line has grown...faack
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 05-31-16 12:50 PM #39
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Curious by what metric Houston has a big edge offensively in this one. Even after yesterday's explosion against that minor league pitcher, the Astros are averaging just 3.2 runs against lefties.
    It's a complicated formula but just eyeballing the projected lineup, seems most of the lineup grades out better vs. lefties. Could mean positive regression vs. lefties the rest of the way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 05-31-16 01:02 PM #40
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    It's a complicated formula but just eyeballing the projected lineup, seems most of the lineup grades out better vs. lefties. Could mean positive regression vs. lefties the rest of the way.
    Positive regression? Like progression or advancement?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 05-31-16 01:11 PM #41
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Positive regression? Like progression or advancement?
    Regression to the mean isn't always negative.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 05-31-16 01:17 PM #42
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Regression to the mean isn't always negative.
    Ahh this is true. Tell me about the Rays pick. I don't like Dillion Gee, but I can't use that as a reason to bet against him
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 05-31-16 01:23 PM #43
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Ahh this is true. Tell me about the Rays pick. I don't like Dillion Gee, but I can't use that as a reason to bet against him
    You are right about Gee, but also Smyley has very strong peripherals even with a few sub-par starts lately, especially the 9.73 strikeouts vs. 2.18 walks. He actually has the highest WAR on the Tampa Bay staff right now, which makes him their sabermetric ace.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 05-31-16 01:33 PM #44
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    You are right about Gee, but also Smyley has very strong peripherals even with a few sub-par starts lately, especially the 9.73 strikeouts vs. 2.18 walks. He actually has the highest WAR on the Tampa Bay staff right now, which makes him their sabermetric ace.
    What you're saying makes sense, but the more I look at this line, the more it looks like KC is the right side
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 05-31-16 01:50 PM #45
    blackeyeshamus
    swampdog stomp!
    blackeyeshamus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-19-11
    Posts: 6,632
    Betpoints: 2224

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Regression to the mean isn't always negative.
    💡💡💡💡💡💡💡💡
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 05-31-16 02:18 PM #46
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Another MLB Addition

    6 MLB Plays Tuesday

    Astros -115 (Heritage)
    Astros / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Red Sox / Orioles UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Yankees +136 (Bookmaker)
    Giants / Braves UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
    Rays -116 (5 Dimes)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 05-31-16 02:50 PM #47
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Goodluck
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 05-31-16 03:27 PM #48
    funnyb25
    Go Get Laid Man!
    funnyb25's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-09
    Posts: 39,622
    Betpoints: 24008

    We need Astros to only lose juice.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 05-31-16 03:50 PM #49
    funnyb25
    Go Get Laid Man!
    funnyb25's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-09
    Posts: 39,622
    Betpoints: 24008

    Shields 2.2ip 10 er...lol...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 05-31-16 04:11 PM #50
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Shields 2.2ip 10 er...lol...
    Lmfaoooo. I see why there are trade talks with him
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 05-31-16 04:38 PM #51
    funnyb25
    Go Get Laid Man!
    funnyb25's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-09
    Posts: 39,622
    Betpoints: 24008

    If the pads would have let perdomo keep going he might have caught shields. 2.2 ip 10 er for shields....2.0 ip 6 er for perdamo. Not bad..
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 05-31-16 05:03 PM #52
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

    7 MLB Plays Tuesday

    Astros -115 (Heritage)
    Astros / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Red Sox / Orioles UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Yankees +136 (Bookmaker)
    Giants / Braves UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
    Rays -116 (5 Dimes)
    Rays -0.5 -105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 05-31-16 05:09 PM #53
    l7ustin
    l7ustin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-08
    Posts: 3,914
    Betpoints: 2724

    Not too late to add Phillies first 5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 05-31-16 05:17 PM #54
    eddycash
    eddycash's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-06-13
    Posts: 4,499
    Betpoints: 15930

    Still like Yankees with the line movement?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 05-31-16 05:25 PM #55
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    Still like Yankees with the line movement?
    I have no choice, the deed is done. I didn't expect the Yankees B-team lineup. With that said, lefty batters Gardner and McCann are sitting against a southpaw and A-Rod sitting is no big deal nowadays, so the line move does seem drastic. In other words, yes this is still value with the seemingly inflated price compensating for the lineup.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 05-31-16 06:18 PM #56
    funnyb25
    Go Get Laid Man!
    funnyb25's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-09
    Posts: 39,622
    Betpoints: 24008

    Yo LT. Have you ever noticed how well your original plays do compared to the added plays?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 05-31-16 06:20 PM #57
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    It's a complicated formula but just eyeballing the projected lineup, seems most of the lineup grades out better vs. lefties. Could mean positive regression vs. lefties the rest of the way.
    Well, they'll see another lefty tomorrow in Robbie Ray. That's 11 straight overs in Arizona games (but I know you don't play streaks ).
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 05-31-16 07:37 PM #58
    eddycash
    eddycash's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-06-13
    Posts: 4,499
    Betpoints: 15930

    bol fellaz thanks LT
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 05-31-16 08:52 PM #59
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    What you're saying makes sense, but the more I look at this line, the more it looks like KC is the right side
    Still half the game left but I hope someone listened
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 05-31-16 10:05 PM #60
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Well, they'll see another lefty tomorrow in Robbie Ray. That's 11 straight overs in Arizona games (but I know you don't play streaks ).
    And the last three have been with the roof closed, so has had more to do with lousy pitching than the ball carrying.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 05-31-16 10:07 PM #61
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Promising start but looking like another losing day at 3-4.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 05-31-16 11:06 PM #62
    l7ustin
    l7ustin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-08
    Posts: 3,914
    Betpoints: 2724

    Better luck tomorrow LT.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
First 12
Top
« Previous Thread | Baseball Betting | Next Thread »