[trobin31]

Hey nktmpp, just wondering how you sim for a debuting pitcher. Thanks for posting, checking thread daily!!

[nktmpp]

Hey nktmpp, just wondering how you sim for a debuting pitcher. Thanks for posting, checking thread daily!!

same as with any other pitcher...i call him up and put him in the rotation, set lineups and simulate the game. however good/bad he does, is all based on their scouting of his past minor league games and how they have him rated.

M. Boyd in the simulation had this line:

7.2IP 4H 3R 3ER 2BB 3K

he gave up 1 HR to A. Beltre and threw 99 pitches with 61 being strikes.
he didn't do awful at all, a quality start, he just got no run support.

hope this answers your question.

[trobin31]

That's awesome.thanks.

[nktmpp]

That's awesome.thanks.

any time...if you don't mind me asking...you say you check this daily...how do you put the info from here to use when looking for what to bet on?

[trobin31]

I basically cap the games myself, then cross reference with other ppl picks consistently to support or lay off the pick.

[trobin31]

same as with any other pitcher...i call him up and put him in the rotation, set lineups and simulate the game. however good/bad he does, is all based on their scouting of his past minor league games and how they have him rated.

M. Boyd in the simulation had this line:

7.2IP 4H 3R 3ER 2BB 3K

he gave up 1 HR to A. Beltre and threw 99 pitches with 61 being strikes.
he didn't do awful at all, a quality start, he just got no run support.

hope this answers your question.

Nailed it

[trobin31]

How are you using, or are you just collecting data?

[nktmpp]

6/27 results:

Tex 4, Tor 0 W
Min 5, Mil 2 W
Atl 4, Pit 8 L
Col 5, SF 7 W
KC 3, Oak 2 W
LAD 2, Mia 3 L
Bos 1, TB 4 L
NYY 9, Hou 6 W
CHC 1, Stl 8 W
Sea 2, LAA 4 L
Ari 2, SD 7 L

today 6-5
overall 509-409

[nash13]

It works on RL selections as well, maybe even better. Collecting Data takes time, but for the first 200 selections it looks awesome.

[nktmpp]

How are you using, or are you just collecting data?

Basically do the same thing as you...but have also had a lil success with a kind of "streaking" play/fade. first thing i do every day is go through the MLB standings and find any team that has either won at least 3 games in a row or lost 3 games in a row. If a team has won 3, i play them if they win the simulated game for that day, and if a team has lost at least 3 in a row, i fade them if they lose the simulated game for that day. this has gone 82-49 thus far for +28.75u.

I don't bet every game any more because its pretty much impossible to play every game on the board and be successful long term. I usually play between 3-7 games a night when there is a full slate of games.

For the past couple a weeks, LT Profits has been unstoppable...so i've tracked all his plays that line up with what i simulate. the record for that is 31-18 for +15.42u if i would have played em.

by no means is this thing a guaranteed money maker, a lot of common sense should be applied...and never blindly follow. i do my capping first, then when those handful of games all line up with the criteria i'm looking for, those are my plays for the day.

[VegasPlayer]

Basically do the same thing as you...but have also had a lil success with a kind of "streaking" play/fade. first thing i do every day is go through the MLB standings and find any team that has either won at least 3 games in a row or lost 3 games in a row. If a team has won 3, i play them if they win the simulated game for that day, and if a team has lost at least 3 in a row, i fade them if they lose the simulated game for that day. this has gone 82-49 thus far for +28.75u.

I don't bet every game any more because its pretty much impossible to play every game on the board and be successful long term. I usually play between 3-7 games a night when there is a full slate of games.

For the past couple a weeks, LT Profits has been unstoppable...so i've tracked all his plays that line up with what i simulate. the record for that is 31-18 for +15.42u if i would have played em.

by no means is this thing a guaranteed money maker, a lot of common sense should be applied...and never blindly follow. i do my capping first, then when those handful of games all line up with the criteria i'm looking for, those are my plays for the day.

Thanks for sharin your thought process. Refeshing to get some insight about an individuals plays. Not enough of that on here.

[nktmpp]

6/28 sim results:

CHW 9, Det 2
Tex 6, Tor 4
Was 7, Phi 2
Bos 6, TB 5
LAD 4, Mia 1
Atl 4, Pit 5
Cin 2, NYM 5 (continuation from yesterdays game...currently 1-1 tie in the 6th)
Cle 3, Bal 2
Min 6, Mil 10
NYY 1, Hou 2
Sea 4, LAA 5
Col 3, SF 10
KC 4, Oak 3
Ari 3, SD 4
Cin 4, NYM 3 (second game)
Was 3, Phi 15 (second game)
Cle 8, Bal 5 (second game)
CHC 3, Stl 2

[trobin31]

What happened in Oakland game if you dont mind me asking. Really liked them today, was it bullpen problem? Just wondering as I might play 1st 5innings instead.

[nktmpp]

What happened in Oakland game if you dont mind me asking. Really liked them today, was it bullpen problem? Just wondering as I might play 1st 5innings instead.

Oak went into the 9th with a 3-2 lead and ended up losing in the 11th. I personally lean Oak as well...but KC has won the last three games they play so imma avoid this game all together.

[trobin31]

Ended up playing oak ff and full game, 1 down 1 to go. Be interested to see tonights outcome. Over seems legit.

[nktmpp]

Ended up playing oak ff and full game, 1 down 1 to go. Be interested to see tonights outcome. Over seems legit.

hope they can make the comeback for ya...but i sure don't envy your position...needing oakland offense to produce is a scare place to be a lot of the time.

[nktmpp]

6/28 results:

CHW 4, Det 5 L
Tex 2, Tor 3 L
Was 3, Phi 2 W (game one)
Bos 5, TB 3 W
LAD 2, Mia 0 W
Atl 2, Pit 1 L
Cin 2, NYM 1 W (continuation from yesterdays game...currently 1-1 tie in the 6th)
Cle 0, Bal 4 L (game one)
Min 3, Mil 5 W
NYY 1, Hou 3 W
Sea 2, LAA 3 W
Col 3, SF 6 W
KC 5, Oak 3 W
Ari 6, SD 4 L
Cin 2, NYM 7 L (second game)
Was 5, Phi 8 W (second game)
Cle 0, Bal 8 L (second game)
CHC 1, Stl 4 L

today 10-8
overall 519-417

[nktmpp]

6/29 sim results:

Bos 7, Tor 5
Mil 4, Phi 6
Tex 4, Bal 10
Cle 4, TB 14
Min 4, Cin 6
KC 5, Hou 14
LAD 2, Ari 4
Col 1, Oak 4
NYY 5, LAA 1

[nktmpp]

6/29 results:

Mil 7, Phi 4 L
Bos 3, Tor 1 W
Tex 8, Bal 1 L
Cle 7, TB 1 L
Min 7, Cin 11 W
KC 1, Hou 6 W
LAD 6, Ari 10 W
NYY 1, LAA 4 L
Col 1, Oak 7 W

today 5-4
overall 524-421

[nktmpp]

6/30 sim results:

Bos 12, Tor 15
Mil 4, Phi 3
Pit 3, Det 9
Tex 3, Bal 5
CHC 7, NYM 6
Cle 4, TB 8
Min 0, Cin 1
SF 3, Mia 1
Was 0, Atl 2
CHW 5, Stl 0
KC 7, Hou 4
LAD 2, Ari 3
Col 1, Oak 5
NYY 5, LAA 3
Sea 1, SD 8

[nktmpp]

6/30 results:

Mil 4, Phi 3 W
Tex 8, Bal 6 L
Bos 4, Tor 3 L
Pit 5, Det 4 L
SF 3, Mia 5 L
Was 6, Atl 1 L
CHC 1, NYM 0 W
Cle 6, TB 2 L
Min 8, Cin 5 L
KC 0, Hou 4 L
CHW 2, Stl 1 W
LAD 6, Ari 4 L
NYY 1, LAA 2 L
Col 2, Oak 1 L
Sea 5, SD 0 L

today 3-12
overall 527-433

[nktmpp]

a nice, sunny day here in Timisoara...so headed to the pool...after yesterdays massacre, need some R&R...so might not make it back in time for the early games. Will be back for the night games so back to business as usual.

[nktmpp]

7/1 sim results:

Col 1, Oak 2
Sea 1, SD 0
Mil 4, Phi 5
NYY 3, LAA 4
Pit 2, Det 3
Tex 3, Bal 6
CHC 5, NYM 3
Cle 7, TB 1
SF 3, Mia 4
Was 9, Atl 3
KC 8, Hou 7
CHW 1, Stl 2
LAD 12, Ari 2

[trobin31]

Be interested to see what you get on

cleveland
Balty
StLous

all on my list today!

[nktmpp]

Be interested to see what you get on

cleveland
Balty
StLous

all on my list today!

Balty and Cle both winners in the simulation...still waiting on CHW lineups for the sim. line has moved a lot for both Bal and Cle...but im not willing to pay the juice on Bal so i'll stick with just Cle for now. I loooooove when the public is on the side of the dog and the line moves the other way like in the Cle game.

[nktmpp]

7/1 results:

Col 1, Oak 4 W
Sea 7, SD 0 W
Mil 9, Phi 5 L
NYY 3, LAA 1 L
Tex 2, Bal 4 W
Pit 9, Det 3 L
SF 5, Mia 6 W
Was 1, Atl 4 L
CHC 2, NYM 0 W
Cle 8, TB 1 W
KC 5, Hou 6 L
CHW 7, Stl 1 L
LAD 4, Ari 3 W

tdoay 7-6
overall 534-439

[trobin31]

Stalking Tampa Bay and detroit early...first glance Texas and KC tonight?

[nktmpp]

7/2 sim results:

Cle 4, TB 0
SF 0, Mia 1
Pit 6, Det 11
CHC 4, NYM 5
Mil 2, Phi 10
Bos 8, Tor 4
Tex 2, Bal 1
Was 2, Atl 3
SD 2, Stl 4
Min 6, KC 1
Col 0, Ari 2
Sea 6, Oak 2

[nktmpp]

Stalking Tampa Bay and detroit early...first glance Texas and KC tonight?

There is much i'm thrilled about at the moment...slight lean on Det and Mia for the early games. haven't looked at the night games yet

[trobin31]

Detroit it is! I didnt trust Tampa to score runs anyway.

Think I'll take a shot at no score 1st inning in miami. Jose Fernandez is my fave pitcher and Cain should come out strong.

[trobin31]

Almost thought Detroit would make that push to double digits.

I am on philly big time

[trobin31]

I'm guessing you'll have Braves and twins later

[trobin31]

Really really like San Diego tonight, how did the first five innings play out?

[nktmpp]

Really really like San Diego tonight, how did the first five innings play out?

Stl held a 2-1 lead for the FF

I'm not actually gonna play anything the rest of the night...my bet is like the kiss of death the past few days. if i was gonna, yes, i'd have been on Min. i actually like Bal tonight, but the simulation didn't go that way...so i decided to just take the rest of the night off. GL with your bets tonight

[nktmpp]

7/2 resuts:

SF 4, Mia 5 W
Cle 5, TB 4 W
Pit 8, Det 4 L
CHC 6, NYM 1 L
Mil 8, Phi 7 L
Tex 2, Bal 0 W
Bos 12, Tor 6 W
Was 1, Atl 2 W
SD 5, Stl 3 L
Min 2, KC 0 W
Col 1, Ari 8 W
Sea 0, Oak 4 L

today 7-5
overall 541-444