1. 06-04-14 06:56 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Wednesday, 6/4/14

    7 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mariners / Braves OVER 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Phillies +176 (5 Dimes)
    Yankees +128 (5 Dimes)
    Marlins / Rays UNDER 7 -124 (5 Dimes)
    Cubs -109 (Heritage)
    Rangers -103 (Heritage)
    Orioles / Rangers OVER 9 -125 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 158-186-4, -8.62
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  2. 06-04-14 09:10 AM #2
    leetreaper
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    Getting there LT, one more push
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  3. 06-04-14 09:15 AM #3
    PorkChop
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    Curious LT, what makes you lean Over on M's/Braves..?
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  4. 06-04-14 09:16 AM #4
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Curious LT, what makes you lean Over on M's/Braves..?
    look at the pitchers last performances lol...
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  5. 06-04-14 09:26 AM #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Curious LT, what makes you lean Over on M's/Braves..?
    6.5 is a low total for a game where neither pitcher is an ace type and the normally great Atlanta bullpen has been slumping as of late.
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  6. 06-04-14 11:23 AM #6
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    1 MLB Addition

    8 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mariners / Braves OVER 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Phillies +176 (5 Dimes)
    Yankees +128 (5 Dimes)
    Marlins / Rays UNDER 7 -124 (5 Dimes)
    Cubs -109 (Heritage)
    Rangers -103 (Heritage)
    Orioles / Rangers OVER 9 -125 (5 Dimes)
    White Sox / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
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  7. 06-04-14 12:18 PM #7
    farmhouse1
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    Phillies Yankees
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  8. 06-04-14 12:34 PM #8
    Capper1124
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    GL to you tonight LT
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  9. 06-04-14 12:54 PM #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by farmhouse1 View Post
    Phillies Yankees
    +21 units last 11 days
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  10. 06-04-14 12:57 PM #10
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    6.5 is a low total for a game where neither pitcher is an ace type and the normally great Atlanta bullpen has been slumping as of late.
    Iwakuma isn't ace material? Since when?
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  11. 06-04-14 12:59 PM #11
    Trmeyer
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    Cubs wont win tonight.
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  12. 06-04-14 01:02 PM #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Iwakuma isn't ace material? Since when?
    He hasn't been nearly as good this year as he was last year (before today ). His strikeout rate is way down from about 7.5 per nine innings last year to a shade less than 6.0 this year, and he entered today's game with a 3.79 FIP.
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  13. 06-04-14 01:04 PM #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    He hasn't been nearly as good this year as he was last year (before today ). His strikeout rate is way down from about 7.5 per nine innings last year to a shade less than 6.0 this year, and he entered today's game with a 3.79 FIP.
    You're comparing those numbers to a borderline Cy Young season, though. He's still ace material, even if he's not as good as '13. WHIP is down; control looks better.
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  14. 06-04-14 01:15 PM #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You're comparing those numbers to a borderline Cy Young season, though. He's still ace material, even if he's not as good as '13. WHIP is down; control looks better.
    Bottom line is still 3.79 FIP. Not bad but not stellar.
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  15. 06-04-14 01:16 PM #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Bottom line is still 3.79 FIP. Not bad but not stellar.
    But of course he is Cy Young today.
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  16. 06-04-14 01:23 PM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Bottom line is still 3.79 FIP. Not bad but not stellar.
    You have fallen into an advanced stats trance.

    Have you actually watched him pitch this year?
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  17. 06-04-14 01:28 PM #17
    leetreaper
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    LT is clueless, can't you tell by his numbers in every sport lol...
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  18. 06-04-14 01:30 PM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You have fallen into an advanced stats trance.

    Have you actually watched him pitch this year?
    I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
    Points Awarded:

    kanapad gave LT Profits 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  19. 06-04-14 01:32 PM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    LT is clueless, can't you tell by his numbers in every sport lol...
    Hardly watched games during all the winning years either. Anything that cannot be quantified does not matter IMO.
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  20. 06-04-14 01:34 PM #20
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
    Well, unfortunately for you, it shows.
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  21. 06-04-14 01:38 PM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Well, unfortunately for you, it shows.
    Re-read Post #19. I have ALWAYS been numbers based. Difference is market has gotten much tighter since my glory years at SBR when I won in everything every year. I forget the exact number but I think it was something like 16 straight winning season to begin my SBR career.
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  22. 06-04-14 01:43 PM #22
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Re-read Post #19. I have ALWAYS been numbers based. Difference is market has gotten much tighter since my glory years at SBR when I won in everything every year. I forget the exact number but I think it was something like 16 straight winning season to begin my SBR career.
    ok good luck anyways
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  23. 06-04-14 01:53 PM #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Hardly watched games during all the winning years either. Anything that cannot be quantified does not matter IMO.
    Did you win in baseball regularly before? I agree with certain sports, but in baseball -- where past numbers don't necessarily indicate any future performance and fluke runs/seasons are the norm -- I find it hard to believe that you can win consistently without ever watching games. You can drive yourself crazy betting against teams and players that just find a way in given seasons and defy all odds and stats -- like the Orioles in '12 and the Pirates last year. You would've gone broke banking on their regression, which didn't come until the next season.
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  24. 06-04-14 01:59 PM #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Re-read Post #19. I have ALWAYS been numbers based. Difference is market has gotten much tighter since my glory years at SBR when I won in everything every year. I forget the exact number but I think it was something like 16 straight winning season to begin my SBR career.
    I find it hard to believe that you can win without ever watching games and getting an actual feel for what's going on, but to each his own. I'm not saying you have to sit in a bunker and break down tape inning by inning, but catching a game every once in a while can be nothing but beneficial. And I'm not sure how you quantify the market "getting tighter" -- do you have proof of this?
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  25. 06-04-14 02:00 PM #25
    farmhouse1
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    Maybe that's why you blow. Ever think about that????
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
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  26. 06-04-14 02:00 PM #26
    farmhouse1
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    Maybe that's why you blow. Ever think about that????
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
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  27. 06-04-14 02:33 PM #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Did you win in baseball regularly before? I agree with certain sports, but in baseball -- where past numbers don't necessarily indicate any future performance and fluke runs/seasons are the norm -- I find it hard to believe that you can win consistently without ever watching games. You can drive yourself crazy betting against teams and players that just find a way in given seasons and defy all odds and stats -- like the Orioles in '12 and the Pirates last year. You would've gone broke banking on their regression, which didn't come until the next season.
    I had a monster MLB at SBR two years ago, something like +55 units. And again, I am not doing anything different than I have always done, I have always felt that watching games is overrated from a capping point of view.
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  28. 06-04-14 02:36 PM #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    And I'm not sure how you quantify the market "getting tighter" -- do you have proof of this?
    Just the fact that there are so fewer winning bettors now than a few years ago. There used to be situations that you can bet blindly without any real capping and come out ahead, but not any more. Two examples that come to mind are bullpens used to be undervalued in MLB lines and teams with negative turnover differentials in NFL used to be profitable on the blind. Those days are long gone (wasn't really THAT long ago).
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  29. 06-04-14 03:52 PM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I had a monster MLB at SBR two years ago, something like +55 units. And again, I am not doing anything different than I have always done, I have always felt that watching games is overrated from a capping point of view.
    So you attribute that to the "market tightening" as opposed to your models being rigid and/or outdated?
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  30. 06-04-14 03:53 PM #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Just the fact that there are so fewer winning bettors now than a few years ago. There used to be situations that you can bet blindly without any real capping and come out ahead, but not any more. Two examples that come to mind are bullpens used to be undervalued in MLB lines and teams with negative turnover differentials in NFL used to be profitable on the blind. Those days are long gone (wasn't really THAT long ago).
    There are? According to who?

    Sounds like you're just using revisionist history to explain away your recent struggles. The market is constantly fluid, but I wouldn't necessarily equate that to being "tighter." Have you made any adjustments to your models/methods?
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  31. 06-04-14 03:58 PM #31
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    There are? According to who?

    Sounds like you're just using revisionist history to explain away your recent struggles. The market is constantly fluid, but I wouldn't necessarily equate that to being "tighter." Have you made any adjustments to your models/methods?
    Obv not, from what i can tell he bets mostly trends and against the public.
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  32. 06-04-14 05:47 PM #32
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    4 Last MLB Additions (Busy Day!)

    12 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mariners / Braves OVER 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Phillies +176 (5 Dimes)
    Phillies / Nationals OVER 7 -107 (5 Dimes)
    Yankees +128 (5 Dimes)
    Athletics / Yankees UNDER 9 -112 (5 Dimes)
    Reds -111 (Heritage)
    Marlins / Rays UNDER 7 -124 (5 Dimes)
    Cubs -109 (Heritage)
    Cubs -1.5 +190 (5 Dimes)
    Rangers -103 (Heritage)
    Orioles / Rangers OVER 9 -125 (5 Dimes)
    White Sox / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
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  33. 06-04-14 09:00 PM #33
    farmhouse1
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    Phillies Yankees
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  34. 06-04-14 09:54 PM #34
    LT Profits
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    Hope I don't lose my Phillies Over to rain.
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  35. 06-04-14 10:04 PM #35
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    Cool, Phils resuming at 11:15 ET.
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