Last night there were three “Game 6’s” on the schedule…and the must-win teams covered the spreads in all three matchups…forcing a trio of Game Seven thrillers on Saturday. Tonight’s card had another tripleheader of Game 6’s. Let’s see how the Wise Guys have been betting Toronto/Brooklyn, San Antonio/Dallas, and Houston/Portland. In the first two, the HOME team has to win to extend the series. In the finale, it’s visiting Houston that’s in the must-win spot.
TORONTO AT BROOKLYN: Not much betting interest on the opener of Brooklyn -5. That tells you that sharps don’t want the favorite. They would have laid chalk immediately in a spot like this because the favorite is a big-city team that might drew public interest. Sources tell us sharps are impressed with what they’ve seen of the Raptors since Game Two. Toronto is 3-1 straight up since that nervous opener, which suggests they might now be the better team in the series. Sharps are looking to take Toronto, and are waiting to see if they can get better than +5 after public money hits the board.
The opening total of 191 is up a half point to 191.5. That’s telling because the tendency right now is for old school sharps to bet the Under. We’ve been talking about that all week. And, two of the three Thursday games did stay Under their totals. In this case, the nudge upward suggests a little more support than a half point would normally suggest. Something’s overriding the old school money. And, we hear it’s not the math guys who made the game 191 also.
SAN ANTONIO AT DALLAS: San Antonio opened at -3, and the number hasn’t budged since the opener. Once again, that means sharps don’t like the favorite. They would have stepped in immediately if they had. Note that the last game played on this court saw San Antonio laying -4.5 points…and the final margin was exactly four in a 93-89 victory. Sources tell us sharps are looking to take Dallas at the best possible number after public money starts to hit. That may end up being the three that’s on the board now. The public is more likely to bet a “must-win favorite” than a road favorite that still has a home game in its back pocket.
The Over/Under is down 1.5 to 2 points off an opener of 199.5. We’re now seeing 197.5 or 198 everywhere. You noticed that the last game on this floor only made it to 182. The next game in San Antonio saw both teams shoot lights out in a matchup that ended on 212. The “matchup” guys suspect a zig-zag back to a defensive game. The old school guys are betting all the Unders. So, a lot of anticipation for a low scoring game from the Wise Guys.
HOUSTON AT PORTLAND: Here we DO have early money on the favorite, as an opener of Portland -3.5 has been bet up to -4. That’s what happens when sharps see value on a favorite. They hit the board right away to get in before public money. If the public drives the line higher, some sharps will buy back a bit to set up a middle. We’re hearing that’s more likely to happen at Houston +5 than Houston +4.5. But, there is some sharp interest in Houston that’s waiting to see what they can get. Best to describe the scenario this way…amidst split assessments, those preferring Portland bet right way…while those preferring Houston are waiting to see what they can get.
The opening total of 213 has either stood pat or dropped a half a point depending on the store. Even though the old school guys are still betting the Under, the matchup guys are anticipating a bombs away night for the Rockets in a must-win game…which increases the chances for a high scoring evening. These teams don’t always clamp down on defense under pressure, they sometimes increase the tempo
Thanks for the great write up. Tell me if I am off base, but the last few times I've read your "sharp" action they've all won against the sharps. Again, I haven't looked back at all your sharp posts so maybe just coincidence. So, logic would assume from your post to take:
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Originally Posted by whtsox13
