We've sure had some phenomenal pitching matchups and performances this October - esp by young pitchers - but the rematch of this pairing tonight is as good as it gets. Of course the headliner is Kershaw - the soon to be two-time Cy Younger who most feel is the best top of the rotation guy in the game – but this Cardinals kid is, based on all appearances to date, something equally special. Although the post season performances of rookies like Gerritt Cole of the Pirates and Sonny Gray of the A's were great - Wacha has been off the board fantastic. There’s of course been a long line of great pitcher’s from Texas – from Nolan Ryan to Clemens to Beckett to Kershaw himself - and Wacha could be next one.
With all due respect to Verlander, Scherzer, etc., – tonight’s game may be the matchup of the two best pitchers in the game right now -
Wacha is only 22 yrs old - he had pitched only 64 big league innings going into this post season – yet the Cardinals were so impressed with him that they gave him the ball to face the Pirates in what was a backs to the wall elimination game 4 of the NLDS for them. The RedBirtds only put up 2 runs for him in that one - but he made them stand up. He not only got the must win W - he took a no-hitter to the 8th before finally giving up the solo jack to Alvarez (still hurts a little - cost me the run line). If all that was not impressive enough - he next matched up with Kershaw in gm 2 of this series – this time the Cards only got him 1 run (unearned, btw) - but he gave up 0 and won again, giving the Cards a 2-0 NLCS series lead. So he's 2-0 post season - with a 0.64 ERA over 14 innings - with 17Ks and only 6 hits against him. Should also mention, btw, that he took a no-hitter to the 9th vs the Nationals in his last regular season game - so over his L3 he has an ERA of 0.42 and has won them all with a grand total of only 5 runs of support over the 3 games.
Although from the opposite side - Wacha throws every bit as hard Kershaw - in fact their ave. FBs this October show Wacha at 95 and Kershaw at 94. Both also have great control/command of their stuff – Wacha at 64% strikes/Kershaw at 63% - and although Kershaw’s K:BB ratio is great at 4.6 – Wacha’s is even better at 5.7. But unlike Kershaw, there’s nothing quirky/tricky in Wacha’s delivery. One odd stat, however, is his Lefty/Righty split. Strangely enough - although you’d expect that LH hitters would hit Wacha better than RH hitters (usually the case with RH pitchers) - it’s been the other way around with Wacha. LHers have hit him at only .192 whereas RHers are at .242. This speaks to how great his CH is (RH pitchers use their straight CH away rather than their breakers in to LH hitters because a most fundamental principle of hitting is it’s easier to hit a ball moving toward you than away from you). It’s an oddity that I’m sure Matheny feels good about tonight – at least as it applies to Adrian Gonzales after AG’s two jacks in gm 5.
As good as Wacha was in game 2 of the series here – it’s going to be a little tougher this time around as the Dodgers have now seen him once (although that didn’t help Pittsburgh) plus the Dodgers are swinging the bats a lot better than they were the first few games of the series. They hit 4 home runs in game 5. Wacha absolutely man-handled Puig in game 2 (0 for 3 with 3 Ks) – including punching him out with the bases loaded in the 6th – but Puig is now seeing the ball a lot better with 5 hits in the L3 games. The other thing is with a 7:37pm normal night game start at Busch the starters are not going to have the advantage of the afternoon shadows in the first few innings that we’ve seen so often the last week. The hitters will have an unrestricted look at the ball from the get-go.
Kershaw – the guy is great - everyone knows it – no question about it - but here’s a question – Who has more career post season wins? Kershaw or Wacha? A: Wacha has twice as many. Kershaw is 1-3 lifetime in the post season. Not saying that means a lot right now but it is interesting. The other counterintuitive thing here is that the Cards not only had a losing record vs LH starters this year at 19-23 but their L/U had a huge platoon split at .280 vs RHers and only .232 vs LHers - yet they are 3-0 this year vs Kershaw - the best LHer of all - in 2013. They also beat him twice in 2012 and I believe once in 2011. That would make him 0 for his L5 vs Cards. Of the current Cards lineup – it appears Kozma hits Kershaw best – 4 for 5 with 2 doubles against him. Looking at his record, Kershaw also seems to be better at home than on the road. Nevertheless, the guy has the stuff to throw a no-hitter any time he walks out there.
More General Team Dynamics
Already talked about the Cards recent post season success/experience/mystique being an edge in this series vs Dodgers lack thereof. Also remember that this Cardinals club played in and won a division that sent 3 teams to the post season - I believe the NL Central was the toughest in baseball this year – and that is not without bearing in a series like this. I also think that Busch Stadium atmosphere itself and the Cardinal Nation will act as a 12th Man here (Wacha is a Fightin’ Texas Aggie, btw). It’s a hard place for a visiting club to play in the post season. It will be loud. It will be intense. It will not be easy to communicate on the field at times. It’s bigger than your average home field edge.
I also believe the knowledge that they have Wainwright in the wings for any potential game 7 will relieve some pressure on both Wacha and the Cardinals’ lineup tonight. Plus - it has been my observation over the years that MLB teams are more apt to lose when they have a good excuse to do so – and in this series LAD has their’s – the injury to Hanley Ramirez. With all the great pitching we’ve seen and probably will see in this series – the biggest pitch of all may have been in the 1st inning of game 1 – when Joe Kelly drilled Ramirez in the ribs.
And one last intanigle for good measure - that feeling in the air that Kershaw is snake bit against the Cardinals
Now, speaking of feelings in the air – there’s one thing that’s a little unsettling from the Cardinals perspective as well – it’s what happened to them last year. They had the same 3-1 NLCS lead a year ago and the Giants came back to beat them 3 in a row. It was Matheny’s first year as skipper. Now, in his 2nd year, the 3-1 lead is now 3-2. Something like that can become the elephant in the room – in the manager’s office, in the clubhouse and in the stands. The elephant was of course microscopic when the Cards were up 2 games to 0 – but it grew a little when the Cardinals didn’t win with Wainwright going in game 3. It grew a lot more when Adams struck out with the bases loaded 1st inning game 1 vs Greinke and Yadi followed with a double play ball. And it’s going to grow very large indeed if they don’t get this one tonight. The difference, however, between this year and last is that those last 2 games in 2012 were on the road. These 2 are at Busch.
Plays
I had a conversation this afternoon with a Nevada sportsbook director who knows his baseball. He’s not one to lay prices indiscriminately – esp on the road - but he told me he has to go with the more proven guy in this spot – Kershaw. I can’t argue with his logic – but I’m going the other way - there’s something special about this young Cards pitcher and the Cardinals team home dynamic here that I can not lay a price against. Additionally, I will in all probability be following up with Wainwright tomorrow if I take a slap on tonight’s plays. As I've said all along - I see an all-Red World Series this year.
STL/Wacha 5 innings at + 117 for 2 Units
STL/Wacha Full Game at +117 for 2 Units
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 10-18-13 at 05:26 PM.
Glad you cashed, bandit. +4.68 Units on the night. Kershaw has phenomenal stuff but I have never seen that big game toughness in him. The writers/broadcasters always say he's got it - but I've never seen it. Now he's 1-3 post season career. People will argue - but I see Greinke same way. And Chris Sale of WSox another one. Some guys like this Wacha kid just have it. You could see it immediately in him. Matt Harvey as well. In post season games like these toughness can sometimes be more valuable than talent.
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