[BoS_010]

I read an article a few days ago about betting baseball; what to avoid betting, what to attack when betting. It was mostly information I had already known and grasp but one thing stuck out to me. The article essentially was saying not to get crazy on betting heavy favorites of (-150) and greater as your BE point is so high it's almost impossible to win money, no shit. I kept thinking in my head- "this is an article on the 2012 Phillies (who also happen to be my favorite team). So I decided to dig a little deeper into this years Phillies team with stats, scores, betting analysis, etc, and get a better understanding of how poorly they really are playing.

First off, when Atlantis released win totals way back in on February 14 with a 95.5, I really felt that was way too high. Going into the season there was a lot of talk about how their offensive production would be without the likes of Howard and Utley for God knows how long, but they at least still had solid pitching (this all on paper of course). Also, the division as a whole (minus the Mets) was expected to be better and more competitive. NOTE: Braves win total opened at 86.5, Marlins- 82.5, Nationals- 80.5, and Mets- 74.5 (-120u). The Nationals were looked as the "sexy" pick. I remember one of my locals dropped the Phillies total down to 92; I forget the others in the division. Next I read a tweet by "Sports Insights" on February 17 saying the Phillies opened at -250 to win the division; another inflated line IMO. The Tigers who everyone was salivating over and already throwing them into the World Series, opened at -300, a little heavier the over-hyped Phils.

Fast forward to present day. Via Covers.com betting the Phillies $100/game would have you DOWN $978. That's not a shocker when you look at the following:
.316 OBP- Ranked 7th in NL (In my eyes it's the most important offensive stat. In order to score Runs you need to get on base, plain and simple. It's middle of the pack but elite teams aren't supposed to be associated with mediocrity)
35 HR- Ranked 8th in NL (They're actually tied with the Pirates, what does that say. Also, coming from a team that's been known for the long ball during their post-season runs of late, this ranks pretty poorly for them)
.203 PH-BA (13/64)- Ranked 12th in the NL (It might seem like I'm stretching to find stats that they suck in, but this is something they used to be much better at (minus the 2010 season).
72 2B- Ranked 11th in NL (another sign of having little power)
111 BB- Ranked 15th in NL (I really thought they were last (thanks Pirates). The Phils are awful when it comes to plate discipline. They're all hackers. So it's not surprising when they rank 2nd in Hits (and ABs) but 9th in Runs. The hits they get are predominately singles and not "clutch".
129 R with Runners in SP- Ranked 8th in NL (A HUGE category you'd like to be Top 3 in. Helps with the "clutch" factor). Yes they have a good BA in this category, but they are not producing runs. And they are 2nd in Runs with Runners in SP and 2 OUTS, that's a nice +. Maybe a sign things will turn around.)
39 R vs LHP- Ranked 11th in NL/.290 OBP vs LHP- Ranked 13th in NL (They are anemic for Lefties and teams know this. They try to alter their lineup as best as they can in these situations but the problem is you don't have any feared batters to do so.

All these stats I pointed out are important (IMO) to be at a high class in if you want to be a top-tiered offensive team/threat. Do the Phillies rank high in certain offensive stats I didn't mention? Absolutely. I'm sure you can find them for just about every MLB team. But these are the ones you dont want to be middle of the oack or in the basement. The NL East is not a joke. I think the Braves and Nats will be there (barring injuries) for the remainder of the season. Howard and Utley will NOT be the answer for the Phils and that is what they are waiting on. I hate to say it but Utley will no longer be the threat we've come acustomed to seeing. Howard, this year, will not be much of a factor.

The Phillies are 21-23. Of the 45 games played, they have only scored more than 5 Runs 12 times. I'm used to seeing them score more than 5 Runs in one INNING, let alone 12 times in 45 games.

Next, I'm going to do a report on the Phillies pitching rotation, maybe expand on a few things already mentioned, and throw more gambling notes in there. Please let me know (if you're interested of course) what other information you guys would like to know. Or if you want me to go in depth more in something already mentioned. Or just tell me to shut the **** up, actually don't do that haha...


BOL

[Avenger]

If you blindly faded Halladay this season, you'd be rolling in $$$.

I wish I actually watched a few games earlier this season and wished I did just that.

but prices will adjust real soon, the public has already started moving away from the Phillies. If they get their line up back with Utley and Howard (they still have Pence, Rollins and Ruiz) and Halladay and Lee start playing their A game, Phillies prices may be at an all time bargain.

[antifoil]

http://web.archive.org/web/200801020...yer-in-a-year/

some of that stuff you mentioned isn't predictive of future performance because of sample size. you should also break it down by player because guys that bat in the first portion of the order have more of an impact over the course of a season with respect to creating runs than do guys toward the bottom. take a look at that link to see how many plate appearances are needed to tell when a number can be trusted as being stabilized.

[BoS_010]

If you blindly faded Halladay this season, you'd be rolling in $$$.

I wish I actually watched a few games earlier this season and wished I did just that.

but prices will adjust real soon, the public has already started moving away from the Phillies. If they get their line up back with Utley and Howard (they still have Pence, Rollins and Ruiz) and Halladay and Lee start playing their A game, Phillies prices may be at an all time bargain.

You're right about Halladay. I don't have the exact stats on hand as of now but will with next post. I'm busy with some shit tonight so probably will have it up tomorrow. Also, in regards to Rollins, I think he's a lost cause. Everyone wants to hang their hat on his MVP season. That was great then but this is 2012. It's a much different (for the worse) Rollins this time around. We shall see.

[BoS_010]

http://web.archive.org/web/200801020...yer-in-a-year/

some of that stuff you mentioned isn't predictive of future performance because of sample size. you should also break it down by player because guys that bat in the first portion of the order have more of an impact over the course of a season with respect to creating runs than do guys toward the bottom. take a look at that link to see how many plate appearances are needed to tell when a number can be trusted as being stabilized.

antifoil funny you mention that because that was an idea I had floating in my head for the next post or two. I like the article. Could only skim it because I gotta run but definitely appreciate the info! Will read in full later on.

[LoneStar]

not sure what the point is here.....

[dlunc3]

Here are my questions:

Would you agree that Utley is most likely going to give this team the same production that he did last yr? Obviously not great, but a help over what they are getting now. That will be a plus..

The doctors are anticipating howard will recover from his injury 100% and be back to normal by August.. If this phills team can stay within 7/8 games of first come August (which should be a possibility), why would you not give them a chance? If Howard is healthy and Utley is giving you the same production as last yr, is this not the same lineup that was the #2 scoring team in the NL last yr when healthy and full strength (once pence was acquired)? But with a MUCH better bench this yr? The pitching staff is basically the same... other then substituting the upgrade of papelbon over madson, and Blanton in for Oswalt (which is basically a wash at this point in Oswalts career).

So let me ask you this... IF (obviously an if), Howard comes back full strength as projected, and Utley gives them what he did last yr... Why would you expect so much less from a team that on paper is actually BETTER then the team that won 102 games last yr? It will all depend on if they can stay afloat while things work themselves out.. but even still to this day, Vegas has this team as a top 3 contender to win the NL..

[dlunc3]

http://web.archive.org/web/200801020...yer-in-a-year/

some of that stuff you mentioned isn't predictive of future performance because of sample size. you should also break it down by player because guys that bat in the first portion of the order have more of an impact over the course of a season with respect to creating runs than do guys toward the bottom. take a look at that link to see how many plate appearances are needed to tell when a number can be trusted as being stabilized.

If you remember back to last yr, this team was struggling with hitting also early in the yr.. And in regards to Halladay, Cliff Lee was really struggling in April and May last yr too... Im not saying this team will be good.. they could go on and finish last place... Im just saying that it is too early to judge a team that has the same pieces to dominate the league all of last yr, based on less then two months of baseball as they put a triple A lineup out there every night.. 5.5 games back is nothing... if the phills are sitting 10/15 games back in august and all the peices are back and this team is still struggling.. then by all means, kill em.. but until then, 6 division titles and a 102 win season just 7 months ago, deserves more respect then to write them off after a bad two months..

[antifoil]

also the division has improved dramatically since last year. 4 of the 5 teams look to be competitive for the remainder of the season.

[dlunc3]

also the division has improved dramatically since last year. 4 of the 5 teams look to be competitive for the remainder of the season.

That is true.. i believe wash will tail off.. but I think Miami will pick it up.. Braves are solid and will put up a fight, but will probably struggle as the season goes on like most yrs.. If Miami can get consistent pitching, they will be the threat in the division imo

[BoS_010]

dlunc-
valid points across the board. I'm not necessarily writing them off. Could they pick it, start playing the ball they been playing the past few years, yes absolutely. I don't necessarily believe they should still be frontrunners to win the NL. It's not too early in the season to start debating it, we're over 25% through the sesaon. The division has gotten drastically better; Washington will probably tail off a little but still contend. Atlanta will most likely be there. And Miami/New York are not "easy wins". I agree with your take on Miami's pitching. I dunno what the hell is going on with Halladay and Lee has not pitched as bad as his record indicates. Hamels has been the Ace so far this year. Bullpen has been suspect and Papelbon has been lights out. Him and Hamels are the only two I feel really comfortable with when they take the mound RIGHT NOW (don't take it as I'm saying Halladay/Lee are bums). That's pathetic considering on the arms they have.
I feel the Phils have gotten old really fast and this year MIGHT prove that. Hopefully I'm wrong.
I really don't think Utley will bring a ton to the table when he gets back. Galvis has a 10x better glove and Utley has a 10x better bat if he's Utley pre-injury. His injury (and age) is no joke. Obviously this is all my opinion but this team just doesn't seem anything like the way they used to be.

Gotta head back out. I'm looking to break down some of the rotation and situational hitting tomorrow. For those wondering what exactly the point of this post is. It's a debate on the state of the Phillies this year; a team that was favored to win the World Series and are out to a slow start. What caused it and are they still the dominate team we're used to seeing in your eyes. I know this is a forum to post picks and that's great; the site is flooded with cappers. I'm just posting something a little different, that is all.

[HoulihansTX]

Phillies analysis

Offense Garbage
Pitching above avg
Manager clueless

[BoS_010]

Phillies top of the Rotation:

Roy Halladay:
Phillies are 4-6 as a team in Roy's 10 starts.
On pace for 252.1 IP, which would be his highest since 2003 (266.0)
His ERA of 3.58 would be his highest since 2007 (3.71) where he still went 16-7.
A bit of a startling stat is the fact that Roy hasn't recorded a CG game yet where he's had 43 since 2007 and 17 in his two years as a Phillie.
Also, as it stands now, Roy is on pace for 14 losses, which would be a career high by 3 games. I don't see that happening as his stats have not been indicative of that poor of a season.
Strikeouts and WHIP are just about on par compared to what is expected out of Roy, a good sign.
Via Covers.com if you bet Roy $100/game blindly you'd be down $576 after starting the season up +300. The Over has also checked in 7 of 10 starts.
I expect things to turn around a bit for Halladay and some of these trends to turn for the better.

Cliff Lee:
Phillies are 1-5 in Lee's 6 starts but must be overlooked.
Some stats below Lee does not qualify due to lack of IP but here they are anyway:
Lee's WHIP of 0.86 would rank 1st in the NL.
Opponent's BA of .213 would be good for 11th in the NL.
Opponent's OBP of .238 would be a solid rank of 3rd in the NL.
It's small but no one has yet to record a SB of Lee; where there are guys like Matt Cain (6) and Stephen Strasburg (7) have let up quite a few. (NOTE: Hamels surprisingly has let up 8 SB, but also has 4 CS)
It's tough to judge where Lee will end up because of the lack of playing time. Despite an 0-2 record he has a nice 2.66 ERA and one would only think that things begin to turn around for him.
With a lot of positive stats going for Cliff, if you bet him $100/game blindly this season you'd still be down $676 (via Covers.com).

Cole Hamels:
Phillies are 8-1 in Cole's 9 starts (won 8 straight).
Cole is having one hell of a season and I predicted (not on SBR) for what it's worth that Cole would have the best season of the 3 aces.
His 7 wins rank first in the NL
His 66 SO ranks 2nd in the NL
WHIP of 1.01 and 2.17 ERA both rank 7th in the NL
If Cole keeps his ERA where it's at that would be a career high (2.79 last year) and much lower than his career avg of 3.33
Cole is on pace for 25 wins. I doubt that will happen but he should surpass his career high of 15 back in 2007.
Cole is also projected to have 238 SO, which would shatter his career high of 211 in 2010, which was his only year where he passed 200.
His 54 ER he is on pace for would also be a career low (60 in 2006 with only 23 GS)
Even his 18 HR he is on pace to allow would be a career low (19 in 2006 and 2011)
Not surprisingly if you bet Cole $100/game blindly you'd be up $660. Great season Cole is having so far, should definitely be his best so far and he's only 28 years young.

One would only guess that things will turn around for Halladay and Lee. Cole may dip a little but shouldn't be affected too much. It's amazing all the stats you can look into with these guys. There's so much it's hard to put it down on paper in the little time you have available. I guess you can say I only mentioned the tip of the iceberg when it comes to these three aces.
So as you can see if you bet these usual money-makers $100 blindly you'd be DOWN $592, despite the Phillies going 13-12 in their 25 starts. Not the end of the world but not making any money, yet. A final note; surprisingly there hasn't been one start between the three where they were (+) money (via Covers.com). The power of juice...

Next up will be positional hitting with the Phillies.

[BoS_010]

Phillies lineup-specific Hitters:

Phillies #1 hitter (not for every inning, their actual #1 hitter to lead of the game):
Something the Phils have lacked, even in years past, is a solid #1 hitter. Jimmy was nice his MVP season but other than that they been modest.
They have an OBP of .308 (9th in the NL)
They have only scored 23 runs. Cincinnati, who is last in the NL, has scored 18.
They surprisingly have drawn 17 BB, good for T-5th in the NL. I'm a little shocked because they are a team with poor plate discipline.

#3 Hitter (Chase's spot):
Have only scored 19 runs, good for second to last in the NL behind Cubs and Astros with 18.
Have an OBP of .308, good for 14th in the NL (Chase has a career OBP of .377).
Have 1 HR, good for dead last (16th) in the NL (Chase's HR numbers have dipped the past few years with 27 total but only having 1 for his replacement so far is weak).
This doesn't make a huge difference but worth noting. Chase is a guy who's prone to getting hit by a pitch. The Phillies #3 hitter this year has 0 HBP.
Have only produced 13 RBI, good for last in the NL.
There's more but it's pretty sickening what type of production (or lack of) they've produced as Chase's replacement.

#4 Hitter (Howard's spot):
A nice plus is they have 10 HR, tied with St. Louis for 1st in the NL.
OBP of .344 is good for 8th in the NL (Howard has a career .368 OBP, despite being down the past few years)
Howard is a walk machine (both BB and IBB). This spot has only produced 17 BB. Pittsburgh and Miami are tied for last with 14. Phils have also only produced 1 IBB. Howard had 16 last year and 11 the year before.
SLG is high with .500, good for 4th in the NL. Howard, who has a career SLG of .560, has seen that dip a bit the past two years.
Have produced 7 2B. Pittsburgh is last in the NL with 5. Howard had 30 last year and 23 the year before, not too bad replacement-wise.
Phils have also done a decent job at replacing Runs Scored. The #4 spot has scored 28 runs. The NL-leading Rockies have 31. Howard only scored 81 last and 87 the year before.

#5 Hitter (behind HR threat Howard):
28 Runs, good for 1st in the NL.
OBP of .346, good for 2nd in the NL.
25 RBI, right in the middle of the pack.
Only 29 SO. The Giants have the least with 25.
SLG of .429, good for 7th in the NL.
Overall nice production despite not having Howard in the lineup. Having mentioned the numbers replacing Howard at the 4-hole have been pretty decent so it's not a total shock the 5-spot has nice numbers.

I was getting the sense that the Phillies get off to slow starts far too many times. They're usually in it till the end due to the fight they have inside them but it's usually too little too late. Looking at the stats of the 7th inning and later, I was not wrong (having trouble getting innings 1-6). Some of these are pretty amazing.
77 Runs, 1st in the NL.
157 Hits, 1st in the NL (Reds, who are 2nd, have 135).
72 RBI, 1st in the NL (Padres, who are last, have 40).
.296 BA, 1st in the NL and .28 higher than the 2nd place Dodgers. Also, .90 higher than the Pirates who rank last.
.349 OBP, 3rd in the NL.
18 HR, one behind Reds, Cardinals, and Rockies who are 1st.
.455 SLG, 2nd in the NL.
109 SO, second lowest in the NL behind the Dodgers with 102.
14 SB, tied for 2nd with the Brewers and Padres, and only one behind NL-leading Cubs.
PH-BA of .203, 12th in the NL.
10 GDP, right near the middle of the pack in the NL.
44 XBP, tied for 3rd with the Cubs and Nationals in the NL.

They are some sick stats. I'm pissed I'm having trouble getting the stats for innings 1-6. It seems like they are middle-bottom in those categories. They almost have to be to explain their roughly .500 record. With plenty of promising stats between the Pitching and Hitting is this a sign that the Phillies will break out and get back in the hunt for the division and ultimately the 1-seed in the playoffs? Only time will tell but one thing is for sure, luckily for them there's a lot of baseball left to be played. If they do plan on making a move, though, it needs to be soon. If I get my hands on those first 6-inning offensive stats I'll shoot them out. For now, I'm still going to stick with my prediction before the season began. They make the playoffs as a wild-card and lose first round. Hopefully I'm wrong.

BOL everyone

[stuntin909]

appreciate all the work...

[BoS_010]

appreciate all the work...

No problem. It was cool to dig into their stats and try to get an idea of what is going on with the team.

[crackerjack]

Good thread with nice info...even if perhaps unapplicable to wagering. Thanks for the effort.

[BoS_010]

Good thread with nice info...even if perhaps unapplicable to wagering. Thanks for the effort.

I hear you. I may have been a bit unclear in the beginning but my intentions were not to have it applicable to future betting of the Phillies/MLB. Thanks though.

[crackerjack]

Doesn't matter...it was enjoyable and entertaining to read. When are you going to do the other 29 teams?

[BoS_010]

Doesn't matter...it was enjoyable and entertaining to read. When are you going to do the other 29 teams?

Haha yea I'm all over it...
If I were to look at other teams the following are who I'd be interested in (one from each division):

Baltimore (AL East)- Who expected this start out of this team?
Cleveland (AL Central)- Same as Baltimore but also: how are they 8 games above .500 with a +1 Run Differential?
Oakland (AL West)- Mostly because I'm a fan of the team.
Cincinnati (NL Central)- I made a preseason bet on them to win the World Series so I'd be interested to see how things are shaking statistically at just over the quarter mark.
LA Dodgers (NL West)- Best record in the Majors and first to 30 wins.

[dlunc3]

you forgot to analyze coaching and how charlie has single handedly lost 4 (being generous) games easy this season

[BoS_010]

http://web.archive.org/web/200801020...yer-in-a-year/

some of that stuff you mentioned isn't predictive of future performance because of sample size. you should also break it down by player because guys that bat in the first portion of the order have more of an impact over the course of a season with respect to creating runs than do guys toward the bottom. take a look at that link to see how many plate appearances are needed to tell when a number can be trusted as being stabilized.

antifoil I forgot to get back to you. I read the article and enjoyed it. It kinda reminded me of the book "Mathletics" by Wayne Winston. I recommend it if you haven't read it.