[EaglesPhan36]

Alright. After getting beat down betting sides and totals this first month, I think I have found a niche for myself and that is betting strikeout props. So, those will be my baseball plays for the remainder of the season. I think there can be some solid success using these props. FYI for anyone who gives two shits, this is what I look at first and foremost:

*For OVERS purposes, teams with the highest strikeout stats among their batters. I usually start with the teams that rank in the Top 10 in this category. As of 4.27.12, these are the most strikeout prone lineups:

Padres: 159 Ks/20 games
Mets: 158 Ks/19 games
White Sox: 156 Ks/ 19 games
Astros: 156 Ks/ 19 games
Diamondbacks: 156 Ks/19 games
Brewers: 149 Ks/ 19 games
Cardinals: 149 Ks/ 19 games
Orioles: 147 Ks/ 19 games
Rays: 147 Ks/ 19 games
Cubs: 146 Ks/ 19 games

Then, the pitchers with the Best K rate per 9 IP. Here, the ones who are 8.0 and above. Obviously, the list can and will change. Certainly there are others that you look at who you know strikeout batters at a high rate like Lincecum, Strasbourg, etc. Currently ranked as:

Scherzer 10.53
Sabathia 9.88
Humber 9.78
Nova 9.47
CJ Wilison 9.00
Doubront 9.00
Sale 9.00
Verlander 8.90
Hammel 8.65
Haren 8.51
Weaver 8.49
Darvish 8.31
F.Hernandez 8.17
Peavy 8.16
C.Lewis 8.10

* For UNDERs purposes, teams with the lowest strikeout stats. Three teams are far and above the rest of the field here. The Dodgers and Rangers also rank in the Top 5 for lowest K rate.

Yankees: 110 Ks/ 18 games
Royaks: 110Ks/ 19 games
Giants: 112Ks/ 19 games

============================
So that is a basic starting point. Certainly the thing I look at first is OVERs, just a natural gravitation. So generally, I look at those Top 10 K rates for offenses and look at what pitcher they are facing and go from there. Obviously, I can only go with the ones my book offers. Currently, I will be using Bovada for the majority of these props. Anywho. That's my plan. Fade. Follow. Whatever floats your boat. Hope this is helpful to anyone who stops by. Off to research for this evening.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 27th: Toronto P Ricky Romero Total Ks Over 5.5 [-110]
Romero had a couple big strikeout games against the Mariners last season with 17 Ks in two starts [9/8]. Seattle is hitting .243 against lefties, but have been prone to striking out still against southpaws. The last two lefties they faced were Danks and Sales. Danks whiffed 6. Sales K'ed 11. Derek Holland struck out 8 in his start vs. SEA and even Oakland's Millone had 5 in 6 IP. Only Ichiro has really owned Romero [8/16]. Of the others in the lineup tonight, Romero has struck out Montero 1/3 ABs, Olivo 3/12, Ryan 2/10, Saunders 3/6 and Smoak 1/9. Romero has been solid since a little bit of a shaky opener against Cleveland when he went just 5 IP. Since then, he's gone 8, 6 & 8 IP. He has not topped 5 Ks this season in a start, but this should be a good spot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Romero did a terrible job of putting guys away when he got them to two strikes. Finished w/5 Ks. Yacked up a 3-1 lead too.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 27th: Padres P Cory Luebke Total Ks Over 4.5 [-115]
Luebke whiffed 21 Giants batters last year in 19 IP over three starts. The names have changed, but Luebke should be a good bet to get more Ks tonight. He's set down at least five via strikeout in three of four starts this season. Only a handful of these Giants have seen Luebke, so he could have an edge early. Sandoval has success against him with four hits in nine ABs, but of the five outs recorded - four were via K. Luebke has proven to be a steady K contributor with five or more Ks now in 18 of 22 career starts with SD.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like 0-2 to start this project. Ho hum.

[JT OZ]

As always your research and prep work is solid, I think over time you will have success with this.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks dude. Hopefully I'll get on the board with a W today.

[csavoia]

I love your passion EP

[EaglesPhan36]

April 28th: Orioles P Wei-Yin Chen Total Ks Over 4.5 [-115]
Taking a shot with the Taiwanese surprise tonight. He's been solid in three starts this season, striking out 15 in 17.1 IP. He has at least 5 Ks in two of his three starts and gets a Top 10 strikeout prone lineup w/Oakland. Chen's biggest issue seems to be effective use of his pitches. He's thrown 96 or more in all three starts, but only gone into the 6th inning once - his last start. Against the A's who rank dead last in batting average and 2nd worst in OBP ... he should have a chance to improve and perhaps work deeper into the game.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 28th: Nationals P Stephen Strasburg Total Ks Over 5.5 [-140]
Even though the Dodgers rank 4th best at NOT striking out this season, strikeout pitchers have been able to get theirs against Dodger Blue. I like this spot for Strasburg too because he's actually overshadowed in this because of the promotion of phenom Bryce Harper for Washington. That means he's got a shot to steal the limelight back. Strasburg has whiffed 25 in 25 IP this season. He's been allowed a good leash, throwing 94, 93 and 108 pitches in his last three starts. His 1st start, his longest was an efficient 83 pitch effort through 7 IP against the Cubs. He got a start against LA last year. 4 Ks in 5 IP in his 1st start back from surgery. He was yanked after just 56 pitches, so you could expect improved numbers if he can be as solid as he was then and go deeper tonight. Strasburg has struck out at least five in each of his four starts with six or better in two of those.

[Pick'nParlays]

bol Ep

[EaglesPhan36]

Need one more from Chen. Good thing is he has a massive lead and 83 pitches through 5 innings. Be nice to get that one in the 6th and not have to worry about whether or not he comes out for the 7th because of pitch count.

[EaglesPhan36]

This Chen one is going to bother me. 4Ks still after 6. I think he had 4Ks after 3. Not sure if he pitches the 7th, I hope so with a 9-1 lead, but he's at 96 pitches. Going to be a stinker of a loss if he doesn't get a shot at #5.

[EaglesPhan36]

7 innings. He's definitely done. Stuck on 4. Maybe Strasburg can help me actually win one of these. Sheesh. Baseball is kicking my mother ******* ass.

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally got one with Strasburg.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 29th: Marlins P Josh Johnson Total Ks Over 6.5 [-115]
Johnson made an alteration to his delivery before his last start against the Mets. It resulted in his best outing of the season that saw him strike out nine batters in 6.1 IP. Diamondbacks are a top three team in K rate, moving just 2 Ks off the lead for most strikeouts this season after their 14 whiff performance against Sanchez yesterday. If Johnson's alteration allows him to continue to use his size to propel the ball, he should have a shot at this # and maybe getting close to double digits.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-3 [-2.30]

[csavoia]

not enough time given to bet this one.. already 2 Ks after half an inning.. good luck.. i usually get more time to look at your threads but i would have had to literally had this open for a chance at it

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah sorry about this one being late. Woke up late this morning and was trying to smash everything in before the early starts.

[csavoia]

no problem EP there will be more.. he now has 3 strikeouts so almost halfway there.. good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright got a couple in a row, let's see if we can't even it up.

April 28th: Rangers P Derek Holland Total Ks Over 6 [-115]
Holland has been beat up by the Rays before, but he's usually still getting his Ks. Upton has hit him well. 5/12, but of the seven outs, six have been via K. He's whiffed Carlos Pena in half of the six ABs when they have faced off. Sean Rodriguez has three hits in seven ABs, but three Ks. Longoria and Zobrist have not whiffed very much against him, just three times combined in 25 ABs. In the playoffs last year, Holland only went five against the Rays and struck out two. However in the regular season, Holland scored 16 Ks in 12.1 IP. Holland had a rough outing against the Yankees on Monday, so he will likely be focused in this one. He's gone at least 6 IP in all four starts with over six Ks twice in which he went 7 IP or more in both.

[EaglesPhan36]

Holland pretty much to form. Got touched up, but 7 Ks and a win to get back to .500. Hopefully, can continue in the right direction.

Record: 3-3 [-0.30]

[csavoia]

nice recovery yesterday

[EaglesPhan36]

April 30th: Astros P Bud Norris Total Ks Over 5.5 [-145]
Chalky here, but we're talking the highest K rate in the Majors right now with the Mets. NY leads MLB with 188 Ks. Perfect example of their free swinging ways: Jamie Moyer struck out 7 Mets over the weekend. The last two guys the Mets faced with big time K stuff were Josh Johnson and Tim Lincecum. JJ whiffed 9 in 6.1 IP. Lincecum nailed down 8 Ks in 5 IP. Norris has struck out six batters or better in three of his four starts. Last year against the Mets, he sent down 14 batters via K in 13.1 IP over two starts. Norris hasn't been stellar in his starts, but he has gone at least 5.2 IP in all four and 6 or better in three. If he can get at least six tonight, I think he's got a chance to get this.

[EaglesPhan36]

Into the black!

Record: 4-3 [+0.70]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 1st: Red Sox P Felix Doubront Total Ks Over 4 [-105]
Doubront had his lowest K output last time against the White Sox with 3 Ks in 6 IP. Prior to that, Doubront had whiffed at least six batters in each of his first three starts. He goes against an A's lineup that has not hit lefties well [.204] and ranks 12th in K rate with 168 Ks this season. Doubront's big must is efficiency. He has thrown at least 96 pitches in each of his starts, but has failed to make it past the 6th inning in any start. Fortunately, his last two starts have seen him go 6 IP each.

[Pick'nParlays]

wow dude he struck out 4 of his first 5.... your golden

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah that was a nice way to get it done. Guy has good stuff, but he's not going to go deep in too many games with the amount of balls he throws. Books should adjust to his K rate soon I would think. Guy doesn't look like a fluke.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5-3 [+1.70]

May 2nd: Tigers P Justin Verlander Total Ks Over 6 [-135]
Relatively low number for Verlander. Granted, the Royals rank dead last in K rate offensively, but Verlander is Verlander. He averages 8.4 Ks per 9 IP and has struck out at least 7 in four of five starts, including 9 in a CG win over KC a couple weeks back. Verlander whiffed 24 Royals in 22.2 IP last season in three starts. Some of the KC regulars have had some success against Verlander, but he has owned enough of the via K [especially Gordon] to make this viable. He has gone just 6 IP in his last two starts after 8 IP or better in each of his first three. I think if he can get into the 7th or better, this should be a good shot.

[csavoia]

Looks like you have your groove in baseball EP. Awesome job

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Verlander did not have his best stuff today, so looks like a loser there. Was between that and Wandy Rodriguez Over 5.5 against the K machine of the Mets ... but thought 6 for Wandy was still going to be tough even against the Mets. Looking for more ...

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow. Verlander is Old School. Gotta love this guy. Had 100 pitches after 7 and comes out for the 8th and strikes out the damn side and cashes the prop with 7 Ks!

[EaglesPhan36]

May 2nd: Brewers P Yovani Gallardo Total Ks Over 5.5 [-145]
High juice again, but worth it considering that Galladro gets the 2nd highest K rate offense in San Diego @ PETCO Park. Discount Gallardo's last start against St.Louis. The righty always struggles with the Cards. Prior to that start, Gallardo had whiffed six or more batters in three straight starts sandwiched in between another poor outing against STL. His career ERA @ PETCO is 2.08 and he has 20 Ks in 13 innings of work there. He had 9 Ks in 6 IP in his only start against SD in 2011.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gallardo was really ineffective today early and that doomed this one. 4Ks in 6.

Record: 6-4 [+1.25]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 2nd: Angels P Jered Weaver Total Ks Over 6 [-115]
Weaver ranks 15th with 9.08 Ks per 9 IP. That makes him an attractive choice even against a team in Minnesota that is in the Top 5 least strikeout prone squads. Weaver has already gone against the Twins once, whiffing 7 in 6 IP on the road. He has struck out at least six in four of his five starts this season. He has some good K numbers against Twins hitters: Span 7Ks in 15 ABs, Casilla 4Ks in 15 ABs, Doumit 1K in ABs and Willingham 4Ks in 12 ABs. Morneau is out which takes away some Ks. Weaver is averaging just under a K per inning at home with 21 in 23.2 IP. He needs to be more efficient with his pitches, but stands a good chance of at least pushing this number if he goes 6-7 innings.