No one is a bigger Philly fan than me.
But I'm loving Carpenter in this spot. He has an amazing 0.60 ERA and 2 wins versus Phillies this year. ALSO the biggest hitter v. Carp is Polanco. Pence has a bad record against him, so does Rollins. Polanco is a base hitter, if they can't get bigger bats against him, Phillies may have hard time scoring.
Carpenter is their "ace" if Cards are going to win a game during the series, it'll be this one.
Of course, on the opposite mound, Lee is no slouch, he's got a 1.76 ERA v. Cards. BUT Furcal and Berkman hit very well against him. Berkman sports a juicy 0.615 SLG rating. Furcal has a 0.667 OBP and a 1.667 SLG rating!
I think Cards are worth a small play here. I think UNDER is worth a look too.
Thought?