EP36's Tennis Elbow

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 02:43 PM

Posted this in the wrong place before.

ATP San Jose: Smyczek +125
Normally, indoor hard court + Gilles Muller's serve = no brainer. Not so right now. Muller has been in questionable form and health already this season. He lost in Heilbronn and withdrew from that event with a hip issue. He returned in Montpellier two weeks ago, but was taken out in straights by Florian Mayer. Smyczek isn't a guy who is going to wow you with anything more than his work ethic. He's made it through qualis in San Jose and went against power server Carsten Ball in one round which should help him out some against Muller. Smyczek had some modest success here last year making the quarters and he's played San Jose every year since 2008, so he knows this surface. Muller is an interesting draw here because he's normally making money on the Challenger circuit right now, so perhaps he's just looking to up the paycheck. I'll pay to see if he's healthy enough to survive.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 03:06 PM

Pennetta wins the war of attrition over Cibulkova. Nothing like sweating a third set full of breaks in the WTA ... but she wins and the parlay cashes.

**Blackroc78** · 02-14-12, 03:41 PM

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 04:15 PM

Oh Smyczek, just wanted to work overtime eh? Fukko.

You too Youzhny. From 6-0 to down in the 2nd set.

Nothing ever easy.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 04:22 PM

So much for Smyczek.

Broken in the 3rd. End match.

**tevari** · 02-14-12, 04:30 PM

I think Youzh will break back here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 04:46 PM

Nice f-ing tie break Youzhny.

To the 3rd we go and more ball sweat.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Nice f-ing tie break Youzhny.

To the 3rd we go and more ball sweat.

Read what I wrote on my thread about this match... seems fixed... Break point for Mikhail at the start of the third by the way.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 04:58 PM

Break for Youzhny, now hold it till the end and I'm alive in this day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 05:01 PM

It's two Russians man, I normally don't like betting on that sort of thing, but this was a good one to use in parlays considering the price and form of Youzhny.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 05:04 PM

Yeah, two russians and If they wanted to do something like that they had all the time spent togheter this week-end in the Davis.
Now Kunitsyn seems going out of the match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 05:33 PM

Terrible set by Sock. Kudla left it out there for him to take, but he was pretty awful.

**reformed** · 02-14-12, 05:57 PM

you know the best moneymaker in tennis? fade hanescu as a favorite, bet him as an underdog

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 06:21 PM

Hanescu isn't a moneymaker ... period. He's like Dolgpolov without the talent of course when it comes to betting. Just when you think you know, you have no idea. Good luck if you bet him!

Nice rally from Sock, down 5-2 in the tie break, wins it 8-6!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 07:28 PM

Well Sock folded in three. My main concern with him is stamina at this point. He doesn't seem to have great fitness the deeper matches go. Oh well. One more because this was a fade I had marked.

ATP San Jose: Ginepri -110
Ginepri has been competitive at the Challenger level to start this season as he tries to rebuild himself from injury. He draws Malisse here who used to be one of my favorite bets on hard surfaces, but his desire is a real question mark to me since last year. The injury bug hit him early with an arm issue in Australia, something he battled last year as well. As 2011 wore on, Malisse seemed content to play more doubles and just flame out in singles. This one as the price suggests could go either way, but I'll take a stab at Ginepri who has more match play under his belt so far.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 12:46 AM

Wednesday, February 15th

Bergamo Challenger: Copil -135
Up against Soeda. Copil is in solid form on this indoor surface and has the kind of serve that can trouble Soeda who is trying to recover from a Davis Cup hangover from the weekend.

**Nikigreat** · 02-15-12, 03:18 AM

Tailing you on Copil

**sharlataans** · 02-15-12, 03:24 AM

Today I like:
Pervak -130 (Razzano is just awful and I hope Pervak can pull her shit together)
Istomin +144
Davydenko -130
Nieminen -200 (in some parlay)
Bogomolov (OVER 22.5)

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 06:21 AM

Some flippin' tired this morning and started off with a loser. Time to turn it around and go into zombie mode.

Parlay: Nieminen (Rotterdam) + Zopp (Bergamo) -120

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 07:39 AM

Welcome to Zombieland.

WTA Doha: Lepchenko +275
I think Lepchenko rates a chance against Goerges who although is continuing to improve, is surprisingly not that good on hard courts. She's just around 52% for her win rate on outdoor hard courts life-time and is sub .500 over the past year on the surface. Goerges is the better player, but she is prone to weird hiccups in matches where you'd think she should win easily given her improvement over the last year or so. Toss in having to adjust to playing a lefty again in Lepchenko and I'll take a stab that Gorgeous Goerges got the hiccups today.

ATP Sao Paulo: Mayer +115
Have to go against one of my favorite guys in Juan Carlos Ferrero in this spot. JCF played a taxing match in Davis Cup play over the weekend, winning out in five sets against Kukushkin. He was pretty fortunate to end up with the W as he really struggled from set to set to find consistency. He's had adequate recovery time since that match on the 10th, but his form looks a little sketchy right now. Mayer isn't the most consistent guy either, but he is a clay courter and has shown good ability when he's healthy and his serve is popping. I think the price reflects the general iffy feeling about JCF right now because normally he'd be a much larger favorite on his favorite surface IMO.

ATP San Jose: Rochus +125
I've already stated my belief on Ryan Harrison's game several times, but I just don't see him with consistent weaponry at this stage of his career. He's working the turn around from Davis Cup play on clay over the weekend into this indoor hard court in San Jose. He's still a work-in-progress and lacks experience on this surface with just 21 matches on it. Olivier Rochus isn't a world beater by any stretch, but the vet usually competes hard and as we saw in Auckland early in the year, when he gets going - he can beat a lot of players on any given day. The surface isn't great for him either, but I want Harrison to prove that he can adjust quickly from the emotions of Davis Cup to this different surface and I think his perceived "name" [yeah what name, I know] is carrying a few cents too much on this price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 09:06 AM

Parlays: 17-10 [+5.77]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 12-11 [+7.45]
Favorites: 4-5 [-2.05]
Challengers: 11-13 [-0.45]
Doubles: 2-0 [+2.10]
-----------------------
Overall Record: 46-44 [+7.77]

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 09:10 AM

Cash that parlay. Nieminen made it interesting.

**Yezzir** · 02-15-12, 09:15 AM

Ebden over Sela?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 09:35 AM

I don't like that match at all. Ebden very inexperienced. Sela not great on the surface. Pass for me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 11:19 AM

ATP Parlay: Benneteau + Giraldo [+108]
Benneteau draws Sweeting to open in San Jose. Sweeting has lost his last five matches on indoor surfaces and again is one of those Americans who just doesn't possess great weaponry. Given his size, he really should have a much more powerful serve. However, his service game is one of the weaker points in his game. When it's not working, he's a double fault machine and he'll give his opponent plenty of looks at break opps. Benneteau is a much more solid player all-around and while his best indoor results have come in France, these courts should suit his mostly steady serve well. Might be a close set in there, but Benny should prevail. Giraldo is up against Ramos in Sao Paulo. It's first-up on clay for Ramos who is good on the surface, but in bad form to start the season. Giraldo got some needed clay reps in Davis Cup over the weekend and played Vina Del Mar although he lost. He should be the more comfortable of the two on this surface right now. Their past match-ups indicate we could see three sets, but Giraldo has found the winner's circle both times.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-15-12, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Welcome to Zombieland.

WTA Doha: Lepchenko +275
I think Lepchenko rates a chance against Goerges who although is continuing to improve, is surprisingly not that good on hard courts. She's just around 52% for her win rate on outdoor hard courts life-time and is sub .500 over the past year on the surface. Goerges is the better player, but she is prone to weird hiccups in matches where you'd think she should win easily given her improvement over the last year or so. Toss in having to adjust to playing a lefty again in Lepchenko and I'll take a stab that Gorgeous Goerges got the hiccups today.

ATP Sao Paulo: Mayer +115
Have to go against one of my favorite guys in Juan Carlos Ferrero in this spot. JCF played a taxing match in Davis Cup play over the weekend, winning out in five sets against Kukushkin. He was pretty fortunate to end up with the W as he really struggled from set to set to find consistency. He's had adequate recovery time since that match on the 10th, but his form looks a little sketchy right now. Mayer isn't the most consistent guy either, but he is a clay courter and has shown good ability when he's healthy and his serve is popping. I think the price reflects the general iffy feeling about JCF right now because normally he'd be a much larger favorite on his favorite surface IMO.

ATP San Jose: Rochus +125
I've already stated my belief on Ryan Harrison's game several times, but I just don't see him with consistent weaponry at this stage of his career. He's working the turn around from Davis Cup play on clay over the weekend into this indoor hard court in San Jose. He's still a work-in-progress and lacks experience on this surface with just 21 matches on it. Olivier Rochus isn't a world beater by any stretch, but the vet usually competes hard and as we saw in Auckland early in the year, when he gets going - he can beat a lot of players on any given day. The surface isn't great for him either, but I want Harrison to prove that he can adjust quickly from the emotions of Davis Cup to this different surface and I think his perceived "name" [yeah what name, I know] is carrying a few cents too much on this price.

You are already guaranteed profit with these 3 picks with Lepchenko winning, nice! Now Mayer and Rochus going for some added gravy. I like 'em both for what it's worth. BOL.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 02:59 PM

Thanks. Giraldo killed that parlay early. I wasn't totally comfortable with him, but the other big favorites to paralay with Benneteau cost too much to pair up, guess I paid for that though. Big win in the tie break for Mayer after he blew set point on his own, got it back on JCF's serve. Felt like he needed to win that 1st set to have a good shot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 04:56 PM

ATP Sao Paulo: Mello +140
Thomaz Bellucci has to be one of the top five flakes on tour right now. He's got Top 25 talent, but the mental makeup of a jilted virgin on Prom Night. Not sure where anyone would have confidence in Bellucci to get things done at this price right now. Sure, the tournament is "at home" for him, but looking at his results all-around for the past year, I don't see Brazil as a big home court edge for him at this point. Plus, Mello is a fellow countryman. When this tournament was in Costa de Sauipe, Mello actually was a consistently better player than Bellucci - beating him at the tourney in 2010 in straights. The indoor set-up here might play well towards both guys who will see a bit quicker conditions. Mello already has match play on this surface from the first round where his serve was steady and he converted three of four break opps on Riba. Maybe playing in the town where he lives stimulates Bellucci, but this dude is lazy and prone to not giving 100% effort even on his best surface. Bellucci is more talented, but I think Mello has the better resolve and mental makeup and if he serves well again, he rates a good chance to win IMO.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 06:45 PM

Nice set Mello, you got him totally where you want him ... lulled into false security.

**gregm** · 02-15-12, 06:48 PM

Awesome call on Lepchenko eagles. Goerges service game was just comical.

**Diesel79** · 02-15-12, 06:52 PM

Bellucci is like Dolgopolov... one day he plays like top 10 player and next day loses to some scrub

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 07:07 PM

I wasn't kidding on Mello either. Bellucci is notorious for firing off sets like that and then going in the tank. He's down 0-4 in the 2nd. Lovely momentum swing. This is why I like going against the flake. He might win, but riding him at heavier chalk is something I hate doing.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 07:47 PM

Well Rochus shit the bed in the 3rd. Had an early break lead, coughed it up and gave Harrison another. Meh. Thought I was at least splitting these last two picks, but apparently they had other ideas.

**RosieTheGreat** · 02-15-12, 10:26 PM

Benneteau was a nice little sweat there.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-15-12, 11:05 PM

He should have rolled easier. Was up a break in both sets, but yacked 'em both back up. Sweeting is weak though, on indoor courts, he will not beat too many guys like Benny who have solid serves. Sweeting, yet another American who has size, but no power.