EP36's Tennis Elbow

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 12:33 PM

This line just keeps blinking at me.

ATP San Jose: Van Der Merwe +4 [+100]
We saw the South African at the Dallas Challenger last week where his serve carried him to a few wins on an indoor hard court. Kamke was in Dallas too and lost to Bhambri who is just not a very good player. Kamke on this surface seems ill-equipped from match to match to be consistently good enough to win. He is not a power player and in looking at his two losses on the surface in 2012, his serve has been very weak. Van Der Merwe has that serve as his main weapon. When it's on. he can stay in matches especially on a quick surface like this. I'll probably dabble small in the ML too since it's closing in on +300, but I think the safer play is the handicap here because even if VDM loses out, I have a hard time seeing Kamke rolling away with this match unless is gassed from last week - but none of his matches were particularly taxing because of the quick nature of points in his game .. all were under 1:30 and several I think barely an hour in length.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by crblahblah

I know your Gil parlay is done, but I have him to close out a parlay (that's seeming incredibly unlikely to hit now). Is Marti really this good? Gil can't even get close to breaking and his serve is nearly broken every game. Sucks for me either way but just curious since I haven't seen much of Marti.

Gil is just playing like a bum today. No serve whatsoever.

**stuckinlondon** · 02-13-12, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Looks like a nice, rough start to the week. Just the way I like it, get the shit out of the way early.

Chin up EP; don't let them Russian ladies get ya down!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 12:51 PM

It's alright. Getting that Mathieu win was what I needed to not start off in a bigger hole. Always nice to get a dog win on Mondays.

**Nikigreat** · 02-13-12, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

This line just keeps blinking at me.

ATP San Jose: Van Der Merwe +4 [+100]
We saw the South African at the Dallas Challenger last week where his serve carried him to a few wins on an indoor hard court. Kamke was in Dallas po and lost to Bhambri who is just not a very good player. Kamke on this surface seems ill-equipped from match to match to be consistently good enough to win. He is not a power player and in looking at his two losses on the surface in 2012, his serve has been very weak. Van Der Merwe has that serve as his main weapon. When it's on. he can stay in matches especially on a quick surface like this. I'll probably dabble small in the ML too since it's closing in on +300, but I think the safer play is the handicap here because even if VDM loses out, I have a hard time seeing Kamke rolling away with this match unless is gassed from last week - but none of his matches were particularly taxing because of the quick nature of points in his game .. all were under 1:30 and several I think barely an hour in length.

Lovely play, but I don't have the handicap of this match in my book

**stuckinlondon** · 02-13-12, 01:27 PM

Any chance VDM takes a set EP? I think with his serve he could pinch a tie break but go down in 3...

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 03:07 PM

Quite possible. I think it's really all about how he comes out. If he comes out strong and his serve is popping like it did last week, then I think this is a tight match and a few key points here or there and I really do think he has a chance. His return game and ground strokes aren't anything special, but like I said with Kamke - his service game has been awful, so if he is still on par with last week's play, he'll struggle.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 03:11 PM

ATP San Jose Doubles: Querrey-Sock +110
On an indoor surface, this duo should have a shot against Knowle-Kohlmann who have not been particularly solid so far this season against anyone. Querrey isn't someone you usually think of when it comes to doubles, but he's been quite serviceable in the past few seasons. He teamed up with Isner several times and their big serves carried them to some positive results where they were actually very good on CLAY of all surfaces. As a young player, Sock too has shown a knack for doubles play. He made the final in the Dallas Challenger last week and the Honolulu Challenger in January. It will be interesting to see how they function together, but I think they have a legit shot if their serves keep them in games.

**fitguy67** · 02-13-12, 03:59 PM

Hey, there, Edward, think you missed a word there...don't you mean "Mathieu looking like he's gonna get it done here"...(just joshing, and locking in my day's sbr-points here.)

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 05:39 PM

Doubles play hit in the super breaker. Van Der Merwe started slow unfortunately, so it's going to be -3 after the first set. Hoping for a dip in level from Kamke, but VDM's return game is as stated - terrible, so a tie break might be the best we get in the 2nd set without some donation from Kamke.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 06:10 PM

Van Der Merwe

Goes from 40-0 to losing his serve game in the 2nd set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 06:12 PM

Heh and Kamke gives it right back. I would so settle for this going to a tie break & Kamke finishing the deal off for a push.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 06:17 PM

And the tall douche gives it right back.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 06:36 PM

Against my better judgment because I cannot remember when Dimitrov proved me right when backing him at a dog price.

ATP San Jose: Dimitrov +125
Price has been all over the place. Anderson opened around -160, got whittled down to -140 and then it bounced out again. Now see him as low as -135 at some places. Flat out, I don't think Anderson's game has improved much over the last year. On this surface, Dimitrov has the chance to keep pace with him as he likes to hit and serve big. He's always shown the ability to match players in Anderson's mold with a big serve on this surface, he's simply had a hard time finishing off for wins. Anderson hasn't always been at his best early in the year on these types of courts, so give me Dimitrov at plus money and we'll see how it shakes out.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 11:05 PM

Tuesday, February 14th

Parlay: Zopp [Bergamo] + Youzhny [Rotterdam] +104
Zopp had a great run on an indoor hard surface in Kazan a few weeks ago, winning a Challenger title. He's had adequate rest and gets a qualifier to start here. Zopp has shown some good ability on this surface dating back to last year and should have what it takes to get the W. Youzhny draws fellow Russian Kunitsyn. Youzhny won an indoor title already this season in Zagreb and has plenty of rest having only played doubles in Davis Cup. Kunitsyn did get a couple matches in on the surface against Austria, so he may start quicker, but Youzhny has the more complete game with his solid return and ground strokes to work the win here.

**RosieTheGreat** · 02-13-12, 11:35 PM

Your thoughts on Querry vs Istomin?

Line changed a dime today (-160 to -170).

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 11:38 PM

I'd rather put my balls on a hot stove than bet on that one. Querrey is in terrible form, Istomin untrustable. Terrible match to bet on IMO.

**sharlataans** · 02-14-12, 01:46 AM

Today I like:
Gajdasova +189

I liked her play against Niculescu, just too many stupid and unforced errors. If she overcomes it I see she can hang in.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-14-12, 03:33 AM

What a retarded way for Dimitrov to lose. I was almost on this one too. It was the right play, regardless of the outcome.

**rumple** · 02-14-12, 04:51 AM

Originally posted by sharlataans

Today I like:
Gajdasova +189

I liked her play against Niculescu, just too many stupid and unforced errors. If she overcomes it I see she can hang in.

That seems to be Gajdasova every match, plus her weak mental makeup sinks her everytime against similiar or better competition.

**MrGambler** · 02-14-12, 05:01 AM

EP - I really like Sisjling. He outplayed M.Jaziri two days ago in the challenger final in Franze. Today against Nieminen I think he have a great chance of winning. Whats your opinion? Keep up the good work with this thread.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 05:42 AM

Thing to be weary about with Sijsling is the hangover effect from playing a title match and then having to travel with a short turnaround. Nieminen is also very good on these indoor surfaces. There's a reason Sijsling is mired in the 100s as far as ranking consistently and that is a lack of consistency. The plus is he's getting to play at home in the Netherlands, but just look at this results the tournament before Quimper to see what he can do from week to week, losing to de Veigy horribly in qualifying. There are questions about Nieminen's wrist and that is why the market has dropped, I would guess.

**MrGambler** · 02-14-12, 06:16 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Thing to be weary about with Sijsling is the hangover effect from playing a title match and then having to travel with a short turnaround. Nieminen is also very good on these indoor surfaces. There's a reason Sijsling is mired in the 100s as far as ranking consistently and that is a lack of consistency. The plus is he's getting to play at home in the Netherlands, but just look at this results the tournament before Quimper to see what he can do from week to week, losing to de Veigy horribly in qualifying. There are questions about Nieminen's wrist and that is why the market has dropped, I would guess.

Many thx for your opinion EP. I stay away or might play it as a live bet if he starts the match well..

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 06:23 AM

You gotta love Nieminen, guy is one of the most truthful players out there. Keeps an updated blog on his website and is one of the few guys who seems not to care when he shares injury info. He says his wrist is feeling the best its been since it was injured which was sometime in the tournament/match vs. Monfils when he last lost. Honestly IMO if he's close to 100%, I think getting him around -160 now is an outstanding price for this surface. Think he opened around -215.

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**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 06:36 AM

Parlays: 15-10 [+3.70]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 12-10 [+8.45]
Favorites: 2-4 [-2.80]
Challengers: 11-12 [+0.90]
Doubles: 2-0 [+2.10]
-----------------------
Overall Record: 43-41 [+7.30]

Dimitrov was pretty much par for the course. All the chances in the world, but doesn't get it done in another close loss.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 06:51 AM

ATP Sao Paulo: Ramirez-Hidalgo [-120]
You've got one guy here in Ramirez-Hidalgo with matches under his belt in qualis in Sao Paulo, while Machado has not played since the Australian Open. Both have proven some decent results either at Challengers or picking off a win now and again at an ATP even on dirt. I think RRH though having played in these indoor conditions + playing qualis at Vina Del Mar and getting into the main draw in that event should be a step ahead here. He'll need to amp up his 1st serve. Noticed his numbers were very low getting that 1st serve in and that needs to improve for his best shot at winning.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 07:14 AM

ATP San Jose: Sock -125
I think a solid price here on Sock against Kudla. Kudla has gone through qualis here, but both have been playing on indoor courts the past week at Dallas. Sock was ousted last week when he reportedly got food poisoning and really struggled to finish against Van Der Merwe. He also had a nagging ab injury that week picked up in training. That doesn't appear to be hampering him as he's been playing doubles this week in San Jose and finished in Dallas last week in doubles as well. Sock won both meetings against Kudla, one in futures play last year on a hard surface, the other in 2010. Both in straight sets. All things being equal health-wise, Sock has better weapons IMO to win on this surface.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-14-12, 07:20 AM

Playing Sock as often as possible seems like a good idea to me. Good luck.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 07:23 AM

Late add.

WTA Doha Parlay: Benesova + Pennetta [+103]
Both with good match-ups against players they have had past success against. Pennetta looks to be healthy after playing Fed Cup a couple weeks ago, so no worries for me about her.

**Nikigreat** · 02-14-12, 07:43 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Late add.

WTA Doha Parlay: Benesova + Pennetta [+103]
Both with good match-ups against players they have had past success against. Pennetta looks to be healthy after playing Fed Cup a couple weeks ago, so no worries for me about her.

I have Pennetta + Zheng

What about Kavcic +200 against Chardy? Inspires me a lot.

**sharlataans** · 02-14-12, 07:47 AM

Did Pennetta really play in Fed Cup? Good this match is televised I like watching hotties play

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-12, 08:03 AM

Yeah, not singles, but she played doubles and reports indicated she looked good.

**beefcake** · 02-14-12, 08:27 AM

EP, keep an eye on Seppi, another player I think who can make a big splash from his usual self this year.

**MrGambler** · 02-14-12, 08:54 AM

LOL - Sijsling saves a match point and wins the 2 set...incredible shoot he made to come back and win the set....I wouldn't be too surprised if he wins but it is a no no bet....too scary to bet....

**EdwardHaney** · 02-14-12, 11:35 AM

I tailed ya on Ramirez Hidalgo. Nice hit. I noticed Sock moved from -125 to -110. I'm still leaning his way though. I have high hopes for the kid.