EP36's Tennis Elbow

**MrGambler** · 02-11-12, 08:53 AM

EaglesPhan - do u think Sisjling wins today?

**MrGambler** · 02-11-12, 09:06 AM

I looks great - early break. I have 5x om him!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-12, 11:56 AM

Team America wins doubles and moves on. What a trememendous two days for them.

**MUHerd37** · 02-11-12, 12:11 PM

Kerber starts off the match with 2 breaks and gives em right back and ends up losing the set. I just love WTA!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-12, 12:19 PM

Saturday, February 11th

Dallas Challenger: Levine +110
Levine has been the most consistent player in this tournament IMO as he draws Darcis for the title today. Both guys are about the same in Finals with Darcis at 4-5 in Challenger Finals and Levine at 4-4. Levine went 1 for 2 last year in indoor hard court finals as he won his last one in Knoxville. He is now 17-3 in his last 20 matches on the surface. Darcis is 17-4. I think Levine has a little edge here with Darcis having to adjust to his lefty game after playing the power of Van Der Merwe yesterday. Not much to separate the two on this surface, but I think Levine has been a little steadier on-serve.

Davis Cup: Dodig +185
Part of this is a hedge for me because I have a future on the Japanese to advance and it's pretty unlikely with them needing two wins. I also just don't understand the price after the way Nishikori got whipped by Karlovic on this surface. Nishikori has all the pressure on him here because Croatia will feel very comfortable if it comes down to Karlovic vs. Soeda for the deciding rubber. So, Dodig shouldn't really be battling too many demons from blowing a 2-0 lead vs. Soeda on Friday. Nishikori admitted that Karlovic's power serve game didn't really allow him to find any sort of rhythm. Dodig doesn't bring as consistent of an unreturnable serve, but you saw with how he handled Soeda in the first two sets that he can dominate with easier holds and put the pressure on Nishikori to have to do better on his serve. A lot of people are going to fade Dodig based on him playing doubles yesterday too, but let's remember doubles does not take nearly as much out of you as singles and his play in doubles likely amounted to the amount of practice time he would have spent on-court Saturday, except with some game pressure on him.

**Nikigreat** · 02-11-12, 05:02 PM

Tailing you on Levine, come on

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-12, 06:28 PM

Dodig is up to +220. Going to wait and watch the price and squeeze as much as possible out of it.

Caloundra Challenger: Jones +115
Matosevic has the experience edge on Jones here. Matosevic is 2-2 in Challenger Finals, while Jones is 0-fer-3. I was however very impressed with Jones three set win over Lu yesterday. His serve was the best I think it's ever been, pumping out 16 aces. He also played the big points well in a third set tie break there which can only help if the match is close and tight today. This looks even on paper, but it may be time for Jones to "break his duck" as far as titles go. If he serves like he did against Lu, I think he takes it. Consistency probably the key though, so expect some ups and downs.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-11-12, 06:59 PM

I'm not sure I would want to go against Nishikori today. I guess situationally, he will have a lot of pressure on him. But Dodig has played a lot of tennis the last 2 days. Nishikori was one of my favorite plays actually, if I can find something to parlay him with. I have no idea on the Challengers. Levine looks okay to me but I'm not willing to give it a try.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-12, 11:23 PM

Jones played like a bitch again. I'm done with that guy. Levine wins, so at least broike a little above even on the two dogs there.

Dodig broke Nishikori early. We'll see how that plays out. Raonic-Tsonga tomorrow is about the only interesting thing on the Davis Cup board.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 12:26 AM

Dodig crashed quick. Was serving for the 1st @ 5-4, got broke and lost 87-5. Broken early in the 2nd. Guessing he's going to lay down in 3 now if not retire and leave it up to Dr.Ivo. Well I took my little hedge shot. Now going to just let it ride and hope Soeda pulls off the upset of all upsets.

**reformed** · 02-12-12, 12:45 AM

hey EP, any reason not to play ryderstedt +9.5 -120 against tipsy? some swedish scrub ranked like 1500 staed with him last match and ryderstedt was quite competitive with troicki playing close sets and winning a set. Also pretty sure the court they are playing on is very fast

**jsmithj88** · 02-12-12, 01:59 AM

Ivo shud win easily.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 01:20 PM

From the blog, but I can't advertise where that is it. So posted the preview here as well.

ATP Rotterdam
Surface: Indoor Hard Court

This is the highlighted tournament of the week with Roger Federer heading in as the top seed in a strong field of competitors on this indoor hard surface.

Federer's quarter has some potential speed bumps. Alexandr Dolgpolov is the other seed at the bottom of the quarter as the number six. Federer will go up against Mahut first. While Mahut has shown that he can keep matches tight on this surface when his serve is working, it's difficult to see him doing it consistently enough to overtake Federer. Youzhny could be up second for Federer if he survives fellow Russian, Igor Kunitsyn. Dolgpolov is no cinch to get to the quarters. He's got Kubot up first and indoor stud Jarkko Nieminen likely up second. Federer hasn't played this tournament since 2005 when he won it and comes in here with some question marks after losing in Davis Cup play. You've got a red hot Youzhny who won a title in Zagreb who could battle him in the second round. Dolgopolov hasn't had a ton of success lately on this surface, so it could win up being Federer or Youzhny who makes their way out of this quarter after they battle head-to-head. Federer is 11-0 vs. Youzhny, so that's a head game in his favor.

In the second quarter, Feliciano Lopez and Richard Gasquet are the seeds. The match-up between Haase and Davydenko in the opening round is an interesting one. Haase has shown some ability on this surface while Davydenko looks like his best days have long passed. The winner may have a shot to work through this quarter with Lopez being a .500 player on this surface. Down on the bottom half, Gasquet has no excuses here. He gets Cipolla first and then Stakhovsky or Bogomolov, Jr. This isn't his best surface though as it seems maybe the quickness doesn't allow him to work quite as well. Still, he's the best talent down here with Stakhovsky and Bogomolov being terribly out-of-form. I think Haase rates a potential dark horse to come out of this quarter, but Gasquet has every shot to beat him there.

We get to see the return of Juan Martin Del Potro for the first time since Melbourne in the third quarter where he stands as the third seed and Troicki as the #7. Del Potro has a tough match-up first-up against Llodra. The good thing is Llodra does his better work on this surface at home in France. All things being equal, Del Potro wins that match-up nine times out of ten. It also might be his toughest in this quarter. He'll likely meet Troicki or Ljubicic for a trip to the semifinals. I don't see either as a major issue for him if he's focused on making a statement. Since he skipped Davis Cup to prepare for this tournament, I am guessing he is here to make that statement.

The bottom quarter in this portion of the draw looks tailor made for Tomas Berdych. He does have the danger of playing Baghdatis in the second round, but in current form, Berdych should advance. Granollers is the other seed here, but could well crash out in the first round against Kohlschreiber. Given Berdych's roll to the title on a similar indoor surface in Montpellier and a win in Davis Cup action on the same surface, it would be a large surprise to not see him in the semifinals.

Semifinalists: Federer, Gasquet, Del Potro, Berdych
Final: Berdych Over Federer
Player to Watch: Robin Haase
Upset Watch: Stakhovsky Over Bogomolov

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 01:26 PM

And one more for the San Jose tournament.

ATP San Jose
Surface: Indoor Hard Court

Milos Raonic is the returning champion here and San Jose also marks the return of Andy Roddick to the court for the firsr time since he retired at the Australian Open. This tournament has been great for Roddick in the past. He's 32-6 here, but has not played it since 2010. Monfils serves as the top seed here, but his health is questionable as he say out as a reserve in Davis Cup play this past weekend due to a knee issue. Stepanek is the #4 seed. There are a lot of injury question marks and Davis Cup hangovers potentially here in this draw.

Monfils gets a first round bye and that will give him some additional rest before he faces one of the qualifiers in round two. Olivier Rochus is the other seed in this quarter. If Monfils is healthy, he should be in position to make the semifinals here. It will be wide open in the other half of the quarter though with Rochus, Ryan Harrison, Robby Ginepri and Xavier Malisse. Any one of those guys could be his opponent. This used to be a great surface for Malisse, but he's had some injury issues already with arm problems and he's had nagging problems that have dogged him since last Fall. Harrison's inexperience on this surface and potential jetlag from Davis Cup participation in Switzerland is a concern for him. Still, Rochus is not unbeatable by any means. Ginepri may have the best "form" of these guys, but he's been toiling on the Challenger circuit so far this season and may or may not be ready to win at the ATP level. It really is a crapshoot down here. If Monfils is healthy, this should be an easy path for him. That however, is a large question mark.

The second quarter features Raonic and another big hitter in Kevin Anderson as the other seed. Anderson goes up against Dimitrov in the first round which should be a good match. Dimitrov is capable on this surface, but has yet to prove his consistency at this level. Still, if he serves well, an upset is not out of the question. The rest of the quarter is littered with more "tweeners" who rotate from Challenger to ATP level like Van Der Merwe, Kamke and Ebden. Getting the first round bye should help Raonic recover from Davis Cup play this weekend. No reason to believe he doesn't make it out of this quarter.

In the third quarter, you've got Stepanek as the top seed at #4 with Benneteau on the other side. Stepanek has had good runs here before, but lost in the first round in his last visit in 2010. His results on indoor surfaces over the past two years have been pretty average or below average. He likely will face Darcis in the second round. Darcis could give him some trouble. Benneteau draws Sweeting first up and based on Sweeting's terrible performance in Dallas, I'd say Benneteau should make it through although he may have a Davis Cup hangover to contend with as well. Gilles Muller's big serve may be waiting for either guy in the second round. Even though Muller is off to a poor start in 2012, his serve always makes him dangerous on these quick surfaces. I think the extra rest getting the bye could help Stepanek here, but I won't be surprised if someone besides him sneaks out of this quarter,

In the last quarter, you've got Andy Roddick and Donald Young as the seeds. They've littered this quarter with American players, including Sam Querrey and the youngster Jack Sock. This quarter really reads a Who's Who of failed expectations, injury issues and confidence questions. Young's half of the draw has him up against Michael Russell first. Outside of his run in Bangkok last season, Young hasn't done much on this surface and it's not really one that is conducive to someone without a major weapon to exploit on opponents. Istomin and Querrey meet in the other first rounder here in what is sure to be a battle of inconsistency. That is a match Querrey needs to get to start rebuilding his confidence after crashing out early in the Dallas Challenger. Roddick and Sock could meet in the second if Sock gets past a qualifier. Assuming Roddick is healthy, this is a quarter he can take with relative ease unless one of the other question marks straightens up and finds their game.

Semifinalists: Monfils, Raonic, Stepanek, Roddick
Finals: Raonic over Roddick
Player to Watch: Steve Darcis
Upset Watch: Russell Over Young

**EdwardHaney** · 02-12-12, 01:54 PM

Outstanding work. I'm really looking forward to some ATP events after a week without.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 07:38 PM

And one clay court tournament his week in Brazil.

ATP Sao Paulo
Surface: Indoor Clay
http://www.brasilopen.com.br/site/

The Brasil Open finds a new home in Sao Paulo after eleven years in Costa de Sauipe. It's an interesting switch because the inclimate weather in Sao Paulo [rain] is leading organizers to have this played indoors on clay, which will give it a different feel. The tournament is headlined by Nicolas Almagro, the #1 seed as a wildcard. Gilles Simon is in as the second seed with Verdasco and Bellucci rounding out the top four seeds. The most interesting "floater" in this tournament is Argentine, David Nalbandian who could meet Simon in round two.

Almagro's quarter features Carlos Berlocq as the other seed. You've got a mix of dirt ballers here with Prodon, Souza and Starace filling out the quarter. Almagro won this tournament the last two years in Costa de Sauipe and his draw is set up for him to make yet another drive for a trophy. It's hard to see past an Almagro-Berlocq meeting to decide who gets into the semifinals. Berlocq has been a very solid guy on clay over the past year, but the majority of his work has come on the Challenger level and when pressed with the best clay court guys in the game, he has mostly come up short. He played well in Vina Del Mar, so he should be in position to meet Almagro. Almagro won their only previous meeting in three sets last May.

The second quarter features the enigmatic Fernando Verdasco as the third seed. Albert Ramos is the 8th seed. Fernando Gonzalez is in this quarter as a wildcard. I wanted to note that because Fernando announced he will retire from the sport after next month's Master's event in Miami. Gonzalez long had one of the most vicious forehands on the planet and it's been a shame to see injuries rob him of most of the past two years. I don't expect much out of him here, but enjoy watching him because there won't be too many more opportunities to do so. Ramos may not even make it out of the opening round, pitted in a tough match-up against Santiago Giraldo who has beaten him twice on clay. It's hard to pencil Verdasco in for anything with how inconsistent he has become, so I think this quarter is prime to see a surprise semifinalist.

The third quarter features Juan Carlos Ferrero as the fourth seed and Thomaz Bellucci as the fourth seed. Ferrero really struggled in Davis Cup play over the weekend and draws a guy in Leonardo Mayer who could take him out in the opening round. Bellucci gets the benefit of a bye and then faces Mello or Riba. Bellucci has had a poor start to 2012 which included losing in the opening round at Vina del Mar to Del Bonis. He never played well at this event in Costa de Sauipe, but it's worth noting that he won a few clay Challengers held in Sao Paulo in the past few years. This might be a spot where he can kick start his season.

The bottom quarter sees Simon as the second seed and Albert Montanes as the seventh seed. The first question really has to be, what in the world is Simon doing here? It's not that he is a terrible clay court player [59% win rate], but it's an odd choice with the indoor hard court swing available where he would probably fare better. Nalbandian is the floater here and if he gets past Paire, would be up against Simon in the second round. Nalbandian got in some clay form over the weekend with a Davis Cup dismantling of Florian Mayer and he could carry that over into a nice run here. Montanes draws the tricky Filippo Volandri first-up. I think Montanes or Nalbandian survives this quarter and with the Davis Cup emotion still coursing in him, I'm siding with Nalbandian.

Semifinalists: Almagro, Giraldo, Bellucci, Nalbandian
Final: Almagro over Bellucci
Player to Watch: David Nalbandian
Upset Watch: Mayer over Ferrero & Giraldo over Ramos

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 07:40 PM

Surprised Monfils is playing the dead 5th rubber, but I think that means he's looking for some practice heading to San Jose. So it's France v. USA in the quarterfinals.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-12-12, 08:25 PM

Your writing is excellent and you really know what you are talking about. I do have one friendly suggestion. I'm no English teacher but I would say stop using the word "here" at the end of a lot of your sentences. It's appropriate once in a while but it's a redundant word. If you were to eliminate that word I wouldn't know if I was reading something on a silly message board or on a professional website. Keep up the good work. You need to run with this...always very insightful.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 10:12 PM

Thanks for the suggestion, did not realize how much I used that.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 11:06 PM

Parlays: 15-9 [+4.86]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 11-8 [+8.80]
Favorites: 2-4 [-2.80]
Challengers: 11-11 [+1.90]
Doubles: 1-0 [+1.00]
-----------------------
Overall Record: 41-37 [+8.71]

Monday, February 13th

ATP Rotterdam: Mathieu +165
Mathieu draws the "Flodonis" Felciano Lopez to open. Mathieu made it through qualis here with nice wins over Berrer and Schoorel in straights. Getting to play those two lefties in preparation for Lopez should only aid his cause for pulling the upset. Their games obviously do not mirror Lopez who has more power, but I think it's much easier for him than if he had played a couple righties in qualis. Lopez' desire is always a question in some of these tournaments and his record on indoor courts is not great [50%]. With match play in-hand, Mathieu rates a a shot to win.

**JNic** · 02-12-12, 11:14 PM

This is really going to be a tough year for Feliciano Lopez I think, he's going to fall off quickly

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 11:26 PM

It's pretty rare to see him show up for much until the clay court season really starts. That in itself is weird because you don't really associate him with good play on clay, but he had a pretty solid Spring on clay in 2011. Best time to use him IMO is the short grass season.

Adding these two futures

Sao Paulo: Almagro +250
Rotterdam: Berdych +600

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-12, 11:59 PM

Trying one Challenger ...

Bergamo: Carreno-Busta +173
The young Spaniard here is a large underdog as the 8th seed against Austrian Martin Fischer. Both have been out of their element on indoor courts to start the season. Carreno-Busta though showed some solid skills on dirt in 2011. He won two titles in Italy at Challenger events. I'm looking at Fischer on clay and while he does have some results on the surface, in the last year or so, he's done little to warrant the big favorite's tag here. He might take this kid to the woodshed, but I think this match is close and definitely don't think the price indicates the shot that Carreno-Busta has to win this match.

**Jerm3462** · 02-13-12, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by EdwardHaney

Your writing is excellent and you really know what you are talking about. I do have one friendly suggestion. I'm no English teacher but I would say stop using the word "here" at the end of a lot of your sentences. It's appropriate once in a while but it's a redundant word. If you were to eliminate that word I wouldn't know if I was reading something on a silly message board or on a professional website. Keep up the good work. You need to run with this...always very insightful.

Are you serious? Get lost

**rumple** · 02-13-12, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Trying one Challenger ...

Bergamo: Carreno-Busta +173
The young Spaniard here is a large underdog as the 8th seed against Austrian Martin Fischer. Both have been out of their element on indoor courts to start the season. Carreno-Busta though showed some solid skills on dirt in 2011. He won two titles in Italy at Challenger events. I'm looking at Fischer on clay and while he does have some results on the surface, in the last year or so, he's done little to warrant the big favorite's tag here. He might take this kid to the woodshed, but I think this match is close and definitely don't think the price indicates the shot that Carreno-Busta has to win this match.

This tourny is on indoor hard as well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 06:14 AM

Yeah my bad on the surface - I think I was looking at two things at once again and didn't match up the right stuff like a doofus. I think it's an outdoor hard surface though, not indoors. Kid did well in the 1st set, but came off the rails after that. Looks like he's dead in 3.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 06:31 AM

Parlay: Pavlyuchenkova + Gil [-116]
The Russian is in Doha against Pervak and desperately needs to jump start her season. This should be a good place to do it against Pervak. Pervak actually won a title on an outdoor hard surface in 2011, but the path she took was littered with lesser players. Her track record indicates more often than not when she goes up against the top tier players, she falters. This is a good surface for Pavlyuchenkova, but she needs to get her game straight out of the starting gate to win today. Gil is in Sao Paulo against Marti. Gil has had a good start on multiple surfaces this year with a couple wins at the Australian Open and a quarterfinals appearance on clay at Vina Del Mar. Marti is getting on clay for the first time in 2012. Gil isn't unbeatable, but he looks a notch or two better than Marti at this stage.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 09:04 AM

Brutal 2nd set for Pavlyuchenkova.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 09:39 AM

F-ing Russians.

This chick is a tremendous waste of talent.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 09:53 AM

Looks like a nice, rough start to the week. Just the way I like it, get the shit out of the way early.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 11:30 AM

Well well Captain Vagina Pants wins the 2nd set. Let's see if Lopez can do his fold up and go home routine now. Go Vagina Pants, Go!

**gregm** · 02-13-12, 12:02 PM

Great write ups Eagles. You need to get an "email me" subscription box on your blog, I want to add it to my daily research . Thanks for putting it on here. Great work.

**EdwardHaney** · 02-13-12, 12:03 PM

Mathieu looking like he's gonna get it done.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-12, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by gregm

Great write ups Eagles. You need to get an "email me" subscription box on your blog, I want to add it to my daily research . Thanks for putting it on here. Great work.

Yeah I'm still learning the nuances of the Google Blogger. Might be able to figure something out. Not counting anything with Mathieu until the last point is played. Guy is still a choke artist at heart. He's French after all.

**crblahblah** · 02-13-12, 12:11 PM

I know your Gil parlay is done, but I have him to close out a parlay (that's seeming incredibly unlikely to hit now). Is Marti really this good? Gil can't even get close to breaking and his serve is nearly broken every game. Sucks for me either way but just curious since I haven't seen much of Marti.