Shari's tennis plays

Mikail · 10-27-10, 03:43 AM

Originally posted by Gee

hrm Potato has gone from +165 about 4 hours ago to +249 at pinny... i know you don't think it means a lot and the line dropping on your player is a bad thing (so this is a good thing??), but i gotta say, huge line movement scares me.

yeah I am thinking that kind of line movement you can't brush off. Something smells rotton here.

noober · 10-27-10, 03:46 AM

What price did u get on Starace? A lot of money came on Lu.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 03:49 AM

I got him at $2.50 Noob. Just put a bit on both of them 2-1.

Gee - I wouldn't advise getting on him now but there's nothing I can do about my bet other than laying ridiculous chalk to buy out of it so I'm sticking to it. As I said in Noob's match thread, I actually think this is a reverse fix in action but then again I could be wrong.

Mikail · 10-27-10, 03:50 AM

I got Starace at +160 and I thought that was good. Now I will just watch and see how this unfolds.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 03:51 AM

Someone on another site said big money is starting to come in on Starace now that his price has gone up. If this is true, then it'd support my reverse fix theory. I guess we'll know in a little while.

yomillionaire · 10-27-10, 03:55 AM

Bodog just closed the match for betting. Starace should pull it off.

Gee · 10-27-10, 03:55 AM

lol, pinny is allowing a max of $1000.00 on the starace match and the dolgo match too

and starace has gone from +282 (where i got it) to +270 in the last 1 minute.

edit: and now down to +257. i may have actually caught the right end of one of these bs games for once.

paciophobia · 10-27-10, 03:59 AM

got starace at +175

noober · 10-27-10, 03:59 AM

anything is possible. starace - lu is the last bet i made in these rigged tournament.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:00 AM

When you think about it, it's actually hilarious. No cameras on the court and there will probably only be 5 spectators. Very few people other than regular tennis bettors would even know who either of these guys are and yet all of this money is being traded on them although there are much bigger 'name' players on the card today. The winner meets a Russian whose match yesterday was fixed. I wonder if these mobsters have little meetings the weekend before and chart out exactly how they want to earn their cash for the week. Have to give them credit though - they seem to keep getting away with it.

lasker · 10-27-10, 04:03 AM

approximately what percentage of tennis matches (not including grand slam matches) do you think are fixed? any guesses? is it just abnormally high in Russia, or is this pretty typical? less common in WTA?

noober · 10-27-10, 04:06 AM

maybe less than 1% of matches are fixed but the problem is everybody knows who the fixers are and they still get away with it

Gee · 10-27-10, 04:07 AM

now i'm even more confused.

it got up to +300 on pinny, then they pulled it... and now its about to start, so we''ll see soon enough.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:11 AM

Originally posted by lasker

approximately what percentage of tennis matches (not including grand slam matches) do you think are fixed? any guesses? is it just abnormally high in Russia, or is this pretty typical?

Hard to say for sure since I've never properly tracked it and there are a lot of matches that I immediately void from my mind in smaller tournaments so I never bother to look at the trading on it unless I read or hear something specific about the match. I do know though that fixing happens from the dinkiest tournaments to the Slams in the early rounds. I know for a fact of one match that was fixed at Wimbledon this year - I even posted a separate thread about it on here advising people to get on that player without giving too much personal info away - and I also know of one player who was approached at the Aussie Open this year when playing someone with a name so big that even a gypsy living in a hut in remote Africa would probably have heard him. Because the lesser player told the people who approached him to piss off however I can't say for sure what it was they wanted him exactly to do since he was guaranteed to lose the match anyway. My guess would be something involving winning a set or toying with the handicap.

It's a pisser because it's so blatant but in a way it also helps you to eliminate matches when deciding what to bet if they involve someone who you know has been involved in fixing before. To be honest though, I truly didn't forsee anything dodgy happening with Lu/Starace but I guess when I think about it more deeply, I shouldn't be too surprised. Italian mafia, Chinese mafia, combined with facing Tursonov in the next round.

lasker · 10-27-10, 04:20 AM

thanks for the response, Shari. really frustrating. a bettor can put hours of research into handicapping a match and it's all meaningless if they don't know about the fix, or if they think they do know and it turns out to be a reverse fix. It's really easy for a player to decide to fix a game without much or any line movement warning us about it. They just tell a friend to bet on them to lose 2-1, or to win 2-1 or whatever... a lot of money for them but not enough to move the line significantly. They keep the losing set(s) competitive until the last game or two, throw in a double fault, a couple "unforced errors," and voila, it's done. I imagine many more games are fixed than we'd like to admit -- the temptation is very strong, especially among players outside the elite who feel they don't make enough on the tournament circuit. tennis is probably the easiest sport to fix and I think it's often very hard to spot the fixes.

Gee · 10-27-10, 04:22 AM

3-0 Lu. oh dear.

ok, lets hope Lu is winning the first set to drive the price up...

Mikail · 10-27-10, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by Gee

3-0 Lu. oh dear.

ok, lets hope Lu is winning the first set to drive the price up...

I feel like I was mugged!

Gee · 10-27-10, 04:30 AM

Originally posted by Mikail

I feel like I was mugged!

just gotta laugh at these things i reckon mate. hope you didn't have too much on it.

jojo85 · 10-27-10, 04:31 AM

Sounds like a fun job, writing tennis scenarios...

Pride · 10-27-10, 04:31 AM

I want to make a play on Isner handicap but it looks too easy. Mannarino is not in the same league as Isner at all and looked pretty weak in his last match.

Thoughts?

jojo85 · 10-27-10, 04:32 AM

starace 2-0 or 2-1 is still @ 20 on betfair, so I think Lu is the play

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:34 AM

Need to check once the first set is over. That's when we can tell. Look at Tursonov yesterday (lifted these pics from another site)

404 Not Found

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/8696/fix1.jpg

404 Not Found

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/277/fix2e.jpg

paciophobia · 10-27-10, 04:35 AM

hey shar, think starace still comes up with the win with the way things are going?

jojo85 · 10-27-10, 04:36 AM

but why not back starace @ 20 as fixer is you know he will win 2-1. This is either 2-0 or 2-1 Lu.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:37 AM

Originally posted by paciophobia

hey shar, think starace still comes up with the win with the way things are going?

Absolutely no clue. No way for me to tell in a dodgy match, especially when we're not able to watch it. And I don't have any Russian friends sitting courtside.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by jojo85

but why not back starace @ 20 as fixer is you know he will win 2-1. This is either 2-0 or 2-1 Lu.

Yeah, you're probably right. 2-1 will be ideal for me but even if Potato goes down hard in 2 there's not much I can cry about. Just a risk I take by betting tennis in Russia of all places.

paciophobia · 10-27-10, 04:39 AM

always thought the italian mafia were more influential than the chinese mafia lol.

Mikail · 10-27-10, 04:41 AM

Becker looking good early. Should have tailed you shari on that one. I know it's early but he's up a break.

jojo85 · 10-27-10, 04:43 AM

I'm hoping for a 2nd set win for Starace, that would mix the fixing up a bit. Losing 1st set and then winning the next 2 is becoming boring..

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:43 AM

Originally posted by paciophobia

always thought the italian mafia were more influential than the chinese mafia lol.

I hope so! And if my little theory is right, then the Russian mafia would want Tursonov to play against Potato instead of Lu. Russian Mafia + Italian Mafioso = Stronger than Chinese gangs.

But WTF do I know about this stuff? I've watched too much Sopranos I think.

Pride · 10-27-10, 04:46 AM

I want to make a play on Isner handicap but it looks too easy. Mannarino is not in the same league as Isner at all and looked pretty weak in his last match.

Thoughts?

jojo85 · 10-27-10, 04:49 AM

Looks good pride, mannarino was really struggling with his serve yesterday and Big John is not as easy to break to repair any mistakes you make on your own serve. Even at 7-6 6-4 you'd get a push, so it seems solid.

shari91 · 10-27-10, 04:51 AM

Originally posted by Pride

I want to make a play on Isner handicap but it looks too easy. Mannarino is not in the same league as Isner at all and looked pretty weak in his last match.

Thoughts?

Sorry Pride - I missed this earlier.

Hard for me to say about this one because it'll all depend on how well Mannarino is serving. Isner isn't really known for his ability to break people so unless Mannarino is dishing up errors and starts serving weakly, you may end up with a push or even a loss. On the other hand, Mannarino may just lose the plot and hand the match to Isner without him having to work too hard for it. It's not like I have much faith left in my little French friend after yesterday.

If I had to pick, I'd probably take the handicap but to be honest, I'd more likely just stick Isner in a parlay or take him 2-0.

Pride · 10-27-10, 04:55 AM

Thanks for the input. I really don't see the frenchie pulling it off after that joke of a match yesterday.

I took a pretty big hiatus so I am planning on sticking around for a while and making lots of money off of tennis again.

Yezzir · 10-27-10, 05:04 AM

Potato heading out, unlucky guys, wrong side of the fix.