Shari's tennis plays

kmarinouofm · 10-25-10, 01:40 AM

Shari give me a winner!

please..

Gee · 10-25-10, 01:48 AM

i've tailed for shits shari! good luck. i don't even know who luncano is

i've already had a crack at chardy and falla tonight. leaning hajek too, what do you think of that one?

shari91 · 10-25-10, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Shari which book do you use? Centrebet only has 2 games at St peterburg aghhhhhh

I jump between Sportingbet and Centrebet. Normally Sportingbet never posts qualies but I think they are this week because there's no WTA action.

shari91 · 10-25-10, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by Gee

i've tailed for shits shari! good luck. i don't even know who luncano is

i've already had a crack at chardy and falla tonight. leaning hajek too, what do you think of that one?

WTF are you betting the Hajek match for?

Well, Hajek and Riba are both mugs on hard but if I was going to bet, I'd take Hajek. He got smoked in his last match against Kamke but Riba hasn't even transitioned to hard yet and withdrew from his doubles match last week because of an abdomen injury after losing his singles match. Not that I'm really buying the injury but at least that was one less match for him to rack up court time with. Yeah - the more I think about it, the more I think Hajek is the play here but I wouldn't be surprised at anything that happens in this match.

mav924 · 10-25-10, 02:36 AM

Good luck today shari

shari91 · 10-25-10, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by mav924

Good luck today shari

Thanks mav! Best of luck to you too.

paciophobia · 10-25-10, 03:13 AM

throw me in a winner shari!

fvckin rocked in nfl last night!

shari91 · 10-25-10, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by paciophobia

throw me in a winner shari!

fvckin rocked in nfl last night!

Edit - I thought you meant you did well in NFL. Just saw your post in Paco's thread.

I don't normally play these but I'll give it a go today as there's not much I really like so far:

Small parlay
Roger-Vasselin/Kohlschrieber/Gasquet/Gabashvili +158

Gee · 10-25-10, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by shari91

WTF are you betting the Hajek match for?

Well, Hajek and Riba are both mugs on hard but if I was going to bet, I'd take Hajek. He got smoked in his last match against Kamke but Riba hasn't even transitioned to hard yet and withdrew from his doubles match last week because of an abdomen injury after losing his singles match. Not that I'm really buying the injury but at least that was one less match for him to rack up court time with. Yeah - the more I think about it, the more I think Hajek is the play here but I wouldn't be surprised at anything that happens in this match.

because its monday night and there is absolutely nothing else to bet on

and i've had a good run recently.

and yup, was thinking similar on why to fade riba and take hajek as a slight favourite.

russian syndicate in action on luncano 3rd set hopefully. wish i could be watching.

shari91 · 10-25-10, 05:11 AM

Originally posted by Gee

because its monday night and there is absolutely nothing else to bet on

and i've had a good run recently.

and yup, was thinking similar on why to fade riba and take hajek as a slight favourite.

russian syndicate in action on luncano 3rd set hopefully. wish i could be watching.

No 3rd set love this time. When I get a chance later this week I'm going to go back and look at the stats for every match I've bet in the past 12 months to see how many of my bigger dogs won the first set only to go on to lose the next 2. Think it may be time for me to go back to betting on 1st set winners.

Hey Gee - Did you hear about that guy here in Victoria who beat the 2yr old boy to death (104 bruises and both of his collarbones broken in 4 places) 18 years ago and is now being paroled early even though they said he still has no remorse? The guy was put in protection in jail and allowed conjugal visits and is now married to some sick bitch with a 12 year old daughter and they've bought a house. Just read the full story online and I'm crying my ass off. Need to get the hell out of this state if not the whole country. Feel sick now.

Gee · 10-25-10, 05:52 AM

yeah, i've often wondered about that - playing first set winners. maybe a bit on each... it'd sure make watching matches a lot quicker.

i did read about that... its pretty ordinary. then again, practically - if he didn't get a life sentence, he was always going to be released some time. lets hope he has rehabilitated himself and the parole board aren't a bunch of idiots for letting this happen. there are crazy laws and people wherever you are shari!

ps. like your play, apart from kohl. i'm really just fading hit fitness and preparedness. falla isn't a mug either (although he has played like one recently). i've had a good crack at chardy. hope he doesn't let me down like he has so often. also got a small multi on gabashvili/vasselin parlay. and think i'll play hajek.

shari91 · 10-25-10, 06:42 AM

Mannarino -200

Normally don't lay chalk like this but I really can't see him losing this match unless he sits down on the court and refuses to lift his racket.

ayuntalo · 10-25-10, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Small parlay
Roger-Vasselin/Kohlschrieber/Gasquet/Gabashvili +158

is this an official play frok you shari? or only the ones in bold?
new ln ypur thread, lets get your winers

shari91 · 10-25-10, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

is this an official play frok you shari? or only the ones in bold?
new ln ypur thread, lets get your winers

Yeah it is. Trying to scatter my plays through here a bit to make it a bit more difficult for the asswipe who is taking them and posting them at another forum. Vasselin match has already started though.

ayuntalo · 10-25-10, 08:15 AM

oops..i think betjam doesnt cover tennis..sucks!
anyways goodluck!

paciophobia · 10-25-10, 08:37 AM

Vasselin down a set. Gabashvili down a break. cmon guys shape up i wanna win my parlay lol.

haveuseenm · 10-25-10, 08:46 AM

hi shari glad to see you back hope everything is going well

shari91 · 10-25-10, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by paciophobia

Vasselin down a set. Gabashvili down a break. cmon guys shape up i wanna win my parlay lol.

Patience my friend. Although Gabashvili is a bit of a worry, I'm hoping the Mafia comes through for us here.

Originally posted by haveuseenm

hi shari glad to see you back hope everything is going well

Thank you! Things are still a bit shaky but we're hanging in there so I can't complain. Hope all is well with you and best of luck with your bets.

shari91 · 10-25-10, 10:11 AM

Go figure - I was worried about Gabashvili and Vasselin ends up choking it away. Although it was just a small play it's still a pisser to see it lose like that.

slimpickins · 10-25-10, 01:16 PM

Nice hit on Mannarino, I just missed that one by about 10 minutes.

beefcake · 10-25-10, 04:26 PM

Well I had RV at -2.5 as well...Count me among the stiffs today..

Gee · 10-25-10, 05:31 PM

epic fail day for me

i'm done with chardy again.

at least hajek got up and i also played russell... small mercies, otherwise it could have been terrible. fvcking gabashvili...

ps. we lost the first set on luncano, so the first set system wouldn't have worked!

shari91 · 10-25-10, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Gee

epic fail day for me

i'm done with chardy again.

at least hajek got up and i also played russell... small mercies, otherwise it could have been terrible. fvcking gabashvili...

ps. we lost the first set on luncano, so the first set system wouldn't have worked!

Yeah, thank you for asking me about Hajek. After writing out my thoughts to you, I ended up getting him at $1.70 which was a bit of a worry when the odds started to plummet but I'm glad it was just a nice straight forward fix. I faded Sweeting in Calabasas for +135 but didn't post that one because they took it off about 10 minutes after I bet. Not sure why though since they didn't even pay it out until this morning.

Today's the day to start getting serious about tennis again. I'll be posting my plays amongst little writeups in here so if anyone wants them, you'll just have to do a bit of reading.

pavyracer · 10-25-10, 06:41 PM

Shari put your tennis capping gloves and give me some winners for tomorrow. I don't mind if they are fixes. It's not like I'm watching the games.

Gee · 10-25-10, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by shari91

Yeah, thank you for asking me about Hajek. After writing out my thoughts to you, I ended up getting him at $1.70 which was a bit of a worry when the odds started to plummet but I'm glad it was just a nice straight forward fix. I faded Sweeting in Calabasas for +135 but didn't post that one because they took it off about 10 minutes after I bet. Not sure why though since they didn't even pay it out until this morning.

Today's the day to start getting serious about tennis again. I'll be posting my plays amongst little writeups in here so if anyone wants them, you'll just have to do a bit of reading.

good job. you can find so many little opportunities for nice plays in tennis. unfortuantely, i don't pay enough attention.

why are the odds plummeting a bad thing in tennis? is the goal not to beat the closer like it is in other sports? reverse fixing is too complicated for me

I think I like our girl stosur to lose tonight. I might book azarenka to beat clijsters now (can i lose on azarenka games 3 times in a row i wonder??). I've already played Hanescu and I'm thinking about Zverev and Donsky now. Zverev beats haase don't you think... i'm 50/50 on that one.

ps. i'll be looking forward to seeing what you are on.

shari91 · 10-25-10, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by Gee

good job. you can find so many little opportunities for nice plays in tennis. unfortuantely, i don't pay enough attention.

why are the odds plummeting a bad thing in tennis? is the goal not to beat the closer like it is in other sports? reverse fixing is too complicated for me

I think I like our girl stosur to lose tonight. I might book azarenka to beat clijsters now (can i lose on azarenka games 3 times in a row i wonder??). I've already played Hanescu and I'm thinking about Zverev and Donsky now. Zverev beats haase don't you think... i'm 50/50 on that one.

I'm going to take a look once I make some lunch but as far as plummeting odds: There is a decent amount of market manipulation by the books when it comes to tennis because so few people have actually amassed a good chunk of knowledge about each individual player and tennis betting itself in comparison to other sports. Steam and 'name' chasers are rampant and books know that by lowering the lines on a player, uneducated bettors will jump on thinking they have a 'sure thing' to stick in a parlay or even worse lay the chalk outright on. That's why I'm always leery when the odds drop too much on a bet I'm on, even if I'm 90% sure it's a fix. I'd rather cap a match and have the odds barely shift at all instead of worrying about why the lines are jumping all over the place with my player.

I've mentioned it many times in here: "I've beat the closing number yet again, let's hope I don't get killed." And sure enough, Slaughterfest 2010. That's why I always try to stress to people to cap the match first and then look at the lines. If the line involves heavy chalk you don't feel comfortable laying, skip it. If the % you've assigned to the player winning is higher than the % you're getting from the book, play it. End of story. Traditional bettors from other sports argue against that approach but then soon find their asses handed to them when they're trying to seek out the ever elusive 'value' in lines or just following line movement alone.

Wilforth · 10-25-10, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by shari91

Mannarino -200

Normally don't lay chalk like this but I really can't see him losing this match unless he sits down on the court and refuses to lift his racket.

Didn't get to read this when you posted it.

moses millsap · 10-26-10, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by shari91

I'm going to take a look once I make some lunch but as far as plummeting odds: There is a decent amount of market manipulation by the books when it comes to tennis because so few people have actually amassed a good chunk of knowledge about each individual player and tennis betting itself in comparison to other sports. Steam and 'name' chasers are rampant and books know that by lowering the lines on a player, uneducated bettors will jump on thinking they have a 'sure thing' to stick in a parlay or even worse lay the chalk outright on. That's why I'm always leery when the odds drop too much on a bet I'm on, even if I'm 90% sure it's a fix. I'd rather cap a match and have the odds barely shift at all instead of worrying about why the lines are jumping all over the place with my player.

I've mentioned it many times in here: "I've beat the closing number yet again, let's hope I don't get killed." And sure enough, Slaughterfest 2010. That's why I always try to stress to people to cap the match first and then look at the lines. If the line involves heavy chalk you don't feel comfortable laying, skip it. If the % you've assigned to the player winning is higher than the % you're getting from the book, play it. End of story. Traditional bettors from other sports argue against that approach but then soon find their asses handed to them when they're trying to seek out the ever elusive 'value' in lines or just following line movement alone.

good post, i agree lots of idiots (namely at blankets) just follow the steam assuming it is a fix and cry when it doesnt cash...doesnt take much to move some lines with the small volume (not counting betfair), which a lot on the posting forums don't have access to

Gee · 10-26-10, 12:33 AM

good last post shari... i've never really understood that, but been burnt a few times chasing steam. i've learnt my lesson and now generally don't lay much chalk.. if i have to, i'll find a parlay.

ps. i think shocking wins the melb cup. spoken to a few in the know, who agree that SYT prob isn't a natural miler. also, i rated shockings run in the caulfield better than his run in the lexus last year. i really like the look of linton as well, but the still hasn't qualified. Looks to be a natural miler... 2nd hardest race of the year to pick, so i dont even know why i bother with it.

shari91 · 10-26-10, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by moses millsap

good post, i agree lots of idiots (namely at blankets) just follow the steam assuming it is a fix and cry when it doesnt cash...doesnt take much to move some lines with the small volume (not counting betfair), which a lot on the posting forums don't have access to

Yep, exactly. Whenever I'm asked to give someone new to tennis betting some advice, this is definitely up there and I've tried to mention it in this thread and in other areas of the tennis forum as much as I can until I feel like I'm just talking to brick walls. So many books only allow small bets on these dinky tournaments as it is - it doesn't take a massive amount of money to move lines especially in 250s. Add into that, one person posting on a well-known forum that they have 'inside info' on a match or believe it's fixed, whether they're talking out of their arses or not, is enough to start a massive plummet in a player's price. Happens way too often and then people are left broke, especially those who jump on at the tail end of the plunge. BetFair is a great tool for tennis betting, even if you never make one bet there. Although there are times you'll still get burned it definitely helps paint a clearer picture as to what's really going on with the market.

Originally posted by Gee

good last post shari... i've never really understood that, but been burnt a few times chasing steam. i've learnt my lesson and now generally don't lay much chalk.. if i have to, i'll find a parlay.

ps. i think shocking wins the melb cup. spoken to a few in the know, who agree that SYT prob isn't a natural miler. also, i rated shockings run in the caulfield better than his run in the lexus last year. i really like the look of linton as well, but the still hasn't qualified. Looks to be a natural miler... 2nd hardest race of the year to pick, so i dont even know why i bother with it.

Thanks for the Cup tip. Second year in a row that I won't be at any Spring Carnival events so I'm trying to get my fix by betting. Did quite well in a few races on Saturday thanks to my trainer buddy sending me some winners after a horse of his won a race at MV. I'll definitely put a few bucks on Shocking although another poster on here who is a friend off the forum got burned pretty badly the last time he raced and will probably kill me if he finds out.

paco · 10-26-10, 12:58 AM

What's the makeoney in my sleep play?

shari91 · 10-26-10, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by paco

What's the makeoney in my sleep play?

My favourite one today is Mannarino at ATP Montpelier. I took him at -200 yesterday which I rarely do and after watching the scoreline, I said I'd take him at whatever price he was today against this schmuck Lacko. Luckily he's not too bad -130 or so when I jumped on. I wouldn't lay the chalk, just flat bet him to be safe.

Gee · 10-26-10, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Thanks for the Cup tip. Second year in a row that I won't be at any Spring Carnival events so I'm trying to get my fix by betting. Did quite well in a few races on Saturday thanks to my trainer buddy sending me some winners after a horse of his won a race at MV. I'll definitely put a few bucks on Shocking although another poster on here who is a friend off the forum got burned pretty badly the last time he raced and will probably kill me if he finds out.

well done on the w/e. i only had the two bets. a few hundred on SYT/Black Caviar double paying about $2.70. both were never in doubt. also liked shoot out to place in the cox plate... ran 4th. hows that crazy 10 year old zipping (nearly 10).

your mate had a big go on shocking at the caulfield cup? is he completely fvcking crazy? (sorry if you're reading this, whoever you are, but i'm amazed.). anyone dropping big amounts of cash on that race has to be insane. A HUGE field of the best quality horses in the country, a small track, a small straight and to tip it off - on caulfield cup day this year, the track was a heavy 9 from memory; Shocking got an ordinary barrier AND was the toppie.

shari91 · 10-26-10, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by Gee

well done on the w/e. i only had the two bets. a few hundred on SYT/Black Caviar double paying about $2.70. both were never in doubt. also liked shoot out to place in the cox plate... ran 4th. hows that crazy 10 year old zipping (nearly 10).

your mate had a big go on shocking at the caulfield cup? is he completely fvcking crazy? (sorry if you're reading this, whoever you are, but i'm amazed.). anyone dropping big amounts of cash on that race has to be insane. A HUGE field of the best quality horses in the country, a small track, a small straight and to tip it off - on caulfield cup day this year, the track was a heavy 9 from memory; Shocking got an ordinary barrier AND was the toppie.

He didn't drop a ton but more than he should have considering that he was planning on using those winnings to bet on Federer that night. I tried to explain to him that betting a tennis match shouldn't be dependent on a damn horse winning a major race. Even tried to convince him to split the bet and go half on each. Of course he didn't listen to me. And then when he finally decided to jump on Fed that night anyway, he missed the start of the match. Of course, Fed won. Silly stubborn man.

Great work on the parlay! One of those horses is very special to me.

shari91 · 10-26-10, 02:04 AM

These are the other plays I like today besides the one I mentioned above: Schiavone, Bachinger, Zemlja, Darcis, Cuevas, Zeballos and Kravchuk/Garcia-Lopez/Tursunov. No chalk laying, flat betting everything. Parlay is small as always. Best of luck to anyone who may pop in this thread.