Shari's tennis plays

[shari91]

Shari, quite good day yesterday I think you came out positive. Had a look at your sheet, Marino is @3.20 against Kirilenko. Did you mix something up? Could you please give your opinion about: Cipolla +100 (over Ilhan), Dokic -110 (over Morita)

Marino was supposed to be with the +4.5 handicap so I've pushed the original bet on the spreadsheet and added a new one. I'm only flat betting it though as these women and the 4.5 handicaps seem to kill me lately.

I like Cipolla but he's not often too nice to me when I bet on him so I'm still debating. And I'm not touching Dokic/Morita. Dokic is just too unpredictable for me to even bother with any more. Even though she's made me some great cash, there's absolutely no consistency with her so I'm not going to try to guess which version will show up.

[sharlataans]

Thanks and good luck!

By the way have you noticed that Bogomolovs games consistently have the highest matched amounts of money comparing to other matchups? I wonder why

[shari91]

Thanks and good luck! By the way have you noticed that Bogomolovs games consistently have the highest matched amounts of money comparing to other matchups? I wonder why

He's a fixer and that's why I tend to avoid his matches for the most part. Him retiring down 6-3 in the 2nd set tiebreak at Queens against Kunitsyn when all he had to do was double fault to end the match or even just lob the ball over the net for Kunitsyn to smash back at him if he was truly injured says it all. People could bet on Bogo but if he looked like he was going to lose, simply retire and void the bets. Even when he was down a set his odds were still at $1.90 to win which is unheard of since it's not like this was Federer playing a scrub. And the odds had moved around so much at Pinny before it started that they even pulled the match altogether. Two Russians playing each other of course. Guy's a complete jackass so if you're going to bet him ever, be careful.

[Glitch]

hopped on bogo today- came to this thread for the first time in weeks to see if anyone else had....might go the other way to reduce my bet a bit.....

[shari91]

hopped on bogo today- came to this thread for the first time in weeks to see if anyone else had....might go the other way to reduce my bet a bit.....

Nah, I mean if you like him in this one you like him. It's just good for us as bettors to be aware that there have been several instances where his matches have clearly not been clean. As long as someone's not jumping on him at low odds ever then it's ok. He's obviously not a complete dud of a player. Just a dodgy one.

[Living The Dream]

You guys checking out this Pannetta fix going on right now?

[sharlataans]

Today I like:
Fognini -111
Dushevina vs. Hercog (OVER 21.5) -110

[showtiime]

You guys checking out this Pannetta fix going on right now?

she ruined a 7 leg parlay for me.

[sharlataans]

Wow, looks like people are simply BOMBING Giraldo here. Shari please help to understand what's up?

[sharlataans]

And one more question. Do books use Betfair as some de facto for odds movements? How come all books usually align their odds and seems like Betfair is the one who initiates the movement. Others just pick it up.

But if we look at Fognini vs. Giraldo matchup, there is $48,000 matched (I swear I saw $52,000 a while ago!! can it decrease???). And if books judge by such small amount of money then it might be manipulated by some bigger fishes to put bigger bets later on other side.

Is this all bullshit I am writing?

[psv777ua]

I like H.Traver +3,5 & ML

[Gaskan]

And one more question. Do books use Betfair as some de facto for odds movements? How come all books usually align their odds and seems like Betfair is the one who initiates the movement. Others just pick it up.

But if we look at Fognini vs. Giraldo matchup, there is $48,000 matched (I swear I saw $52,000 a while ago!! can it decrease???). And if books judge by such small amount of money then it might be manipulated by some bigger fishes to put bigger bets later on other side.

Is this all bullshit I am writing?

Yeah, I'm with you. Fognini looks like the right play, but the odds are really moving in the other direction.

[brandoc]

And one more question. Do books use Betfair as some de facto for odds movements? How come all books usually align their odds and seems like Betfair is the one who initiates the movement. Others just pick it up.

But if we look at Fognini vs. Giraldo matchup, there is $48,000 matched (I swear I saw $52,000 a while ago!! can it decrease???). And if books judge by such small amount of money then it might be manipulated by some bigger fishes to put bigger bets later on other side.

Is this all bullshit I am writing?

Professional arbitrage traders and bonus hunters will back at the books and lay at Betfair for a locked in profit. Only natural that the books being hit will then align to Betfair odds. If you follow in-play though there are always discrepancies between the books and BF so not fair to say that they follow BF as a rule of thumb IMO..

[shari91]

Sorry sharlataans - I was busy doing some end of month stuff for the forum tonight so I just had the chance to come in here now. If you ever want an answer to something about a specific match and I haven't responded in a reasonable amount of time, feel free to PM me. Sometimes I just miss seeing my thread get bumped in between doing other things.

And one more question. Do books use Betfair as some de facto for odds movements? How come all books usually align their odds and seems like Betfair is the one who initiates the movement. Others just pick it up. But if we look at Fognini vs. Giraldo matchup, there is $48,000 matched (I swear I saw $52,000 a while ago!! can it decrease???). And if books judge by such small amount of money then it might be manipulated by some bigger fishes to put bigger bets later on other side. Is this all bullshit I am writing?

Books definitely will watch Betfair as that's the first (and mainly only important) place to watch for weird betting activity. Basically anything that can affect a match but some bookie in Timbuktu wouldn't normally be aware of otherwise. People with that info will go to Betfair because they're normally not in the US so they can take advantage of it with Betfair's lines and no limits. However it often happens that a book in Australia for example will miss moving the lines or taking it down completely in the case of a 100% fixed match because of the time difference ie it's 5am here when the match starts. So while you and I are looking at that Aussie book thinking the match is completely fine, a quick check of Betfair will tell us that there's some screwy movement happening.

Whenever you see stuff like this you just have to ask yourself what would cause a player's odds to jump 65 cents on betfair? There are only about 5 or so possibilities. And if you can't figure it out either by reading forums (which sometimes are misleading anyway), checking out a player's Twitter, etc... then you need to decide how comfortable you are getting involved with a match that has line movement like that. I'm not sure if you saw a discussion I had in here during Wimbledon I think where I posted all of these first round matches where one player's odds had dropped significantly and they still lost the match. That's why I always advocate for either just avoiding matches altogether when there's line movement like this or keeping your bets small. Most of us will never know 100% why the movement's happening until the match is over.

[Pew Pew]

Shari watching the wta is like pissing into the wind. But I can't help but watch them play

[sharlataans]

Guys did you see Ferrero is +188 against Gulbis at Montreal.
I think it is just crazy. I wanted to take Ferrero 2:0 before I saw the odds. It would be like +400

[EaglesPhan36]

Why do you think it's crazy? Gulbis isn't the most consistent guy obviously, but he's high with confidence off a title in LA and Ferrero hasn't played a match on hard courts since the US Open last year. If Gulbis is serving well, he wins IMO.

[sharlataans]

Today I go:
Nalbandian +125
Ferrero +175

[wtt0315]

waswanki -140 is the play today
also petrova is playing good right now -220

[sharlataans]

Someone slammed Gulbis vs Ferrero game hard on Pinny. They even took ML offline for a while.
Odds did not move much though. Hard to believe someone straight backed Gulbis with $7000.

[brandoc]

Someone slammed Gulbis vs Ferrero game hard on Pinny. They even took ML offline for a while.
Odds did not move much though. Hard to believe someone straight backed Gulbis with $7000.

How do you know that Sharla about $7000 bet on Gulby?

I layed him on BF last night @1,52.. and now he´s up to 1,54.

[sharlataans]

Ferrero result was close, but the game was not. You could see Gulbis has twice as much energy and will to win. Ferrero was like an old lion feeling he is going to be ass kicked in the end anyways.

Today I go with WTA:
Cibulkova + Peer = +100

[sharlataans]

How do you know that Sharla about $7000 bet on Gulby?

I layed him on BF last night @1,52.. and now he´s up to 1,54.

Congrats good win.
As far as I know Pinny usually takes a line off if someone puts a max bet (which was $7,000 for that match) or someone reputable makes a bet.

[Ingram$]

Thanks Skyline! Best of luck to you!!

[sharlataans]

Went over games today, here are my leans:

Fognini vs. Troicki (OVER 20.5)
Lisicki vs. Peer (2:0)
Pironkova vs. McHale (OVER 21)
Roddick vs. Kohlshreiber (2:0)

[sharlataans]

Wow, no love for Fognini by public. They are hammering Troicki hard.

Fognini is now at +460 and looks like it will climb much more. It is hard to resist as I am Fognini nuthugger.
Taking spread for Fognini is never a good idea, but trading that +460 at Betfair could turn out very valuable.

Edit: something is wrong in that game. Huge money flowing in. +500 already!

[apeterlives]

hey sharlataan what do you see in fognini? fognini h2h is 0-2 against troicki (one of those losses coming a few months ago), fognini has lost his last 3 matches (alright in montreal it was Tsonga), he seems to be a better clay player than hardcourt -- i mean there's huge value there in +500 but unless troicki plays horribly

[sharlataans]

hey sharlataan what do you see in fognini? fognini h2h is 0-2 against troicki (one of those losses coming a few months ago), fognini has lost his last 3 matches (alright in montreal it was Tsonga), he seems to be a better clay player than hardcourt -- i mean there's huge value there in +500 but unless troicki plays horribly

That's what people keep telling me, but I still not agree with the odds at all. Fognini record is very deceiving IMO, he is much better than that. You have to watch him play and see yourself. He is VERY talented guy and I am obviously Fognini nuthugger.

I also think he is a fixer, and he does not care about his record much. All he cares I think is to be top100. Shari says these odds reflect real situation, but if this game is not competitive then I say it is a fix $225,000 already matched on Betfair, but Roddick game, for instance, is $16,000.

There are people betting big money on this game and they know something.

He made Tsonga work hard for a win is his recent hard appearance:

[sharlataans]

apeterlives - congrats on Lytle win, I also had money on him

[FR3SH like UgHH]

Wow, no love for Fognini by public. They are hammering Troicki hard.

Fognini is now at +460 and looks like it will climb much more. It is hard to resist as I am Fognini nuthugger.
Taking spread for Fognini is never a good idea, but trading that +460 at Betfair could turn out very valuable.

Edit: something is wrong in that game. Huge money flowing in. +500 already!

so are u saying play Fognini, or that he has NO SHOT @ all ?

[sharlataans]

so are u saying play Fognini, or that he has NO SHOT @ all ?

I say you better stay away from this game

[FR3SH like UgHH]

^^^

...in what sense tho???

i was gonna put 100$ on fognini...don't think i'd lay all that $$$ on troicky and since u know about/ like fognini i was trying to see ur opinion on the match...

[sharlataans]

^^^

...in what sense tho???

i was gonna put 100$ on fognini...don't think i'd lay all that $$$ on troicky and since u know about/ like fognini i was trying to see ur opinion on the match...

Man, noone likes Fognini in this match but me I will trade a little amount on Betfair so I can back out if I have a chance.
If it does not scare you, go with Fognini

[FR3SH like UgHH]

im saying tho, does fognini stand a chance?

[FR3SH like UgHH]

Aug 15 - 11:10 AM MU [4123] F FOGNINI (RD OF 64) +465 (F FOGNINI (RD OF 64) vrs V TROICKI (RD OF 64)) 100.00 / 465.00 2897193


i did it...