[Hardcoar]

That match pretty much went as I expected it to. Told you!

[Honeybadger44]

That match pretty much went as I expected it to. Told you!

You should better warn me about the possibility of Sousa turning into a little sissy girl, in the middle of the match, in front of his home crowd

[JustSomeCash]

Hello HB! nice job yesterday,with your help I parlayed both players +1.5 sets(Sisi&ZS) and made my daily $$ so big tnx!
However I have one game that caught my eyes,Klizan@Youzhny,I know that the Russian not in form right now but co'mn,+150 against drunk-ass Klizan its too much IMO,what your opinion man?

[Honeybadger44]

Hello HB! nice job yesterday,with your help I parlayed both players +1.5 sets(Sisi&ZS) and made my daily $$ so big tnx!
However I have one game that caught my eyes,Klizan@Youzhny,I know that the Russian not in form right now but co'mn,+150 against drunk-ass Klizan its too much IMO,what your opinion man?

Hey man! Nice to hear that you made some money yesterday.

I didn't see anything special on the board today, and that is why I didn't post any plays.

Regardin Klizan-Youzhny. There was a quite big line movement in Klizan's favor. When something like that happens, and I don't have the right informations, I usualy stay way. It might indicate an injury or something like that...
But yes, in normal conditions, Youzhny is the side with much more value at these odds.

[Honeybadger44]

Suarez Navarro +2,5 @1.83 Pinnacle - 4 units

I just feel that Kuznetsova is not deserving this respect, which she is getting from the books in this match. Yeah, she played well this week, but lets look at those wins more closely. Torro Flor handed her the win in the second part of the match with big number of UE. After that, she took out Bouchard. Genie is a very good player and a future top player most likely, but she doesn't understand some of the important things about clay tennis yet and Kuznetsova knew how to take adventage of that with her experiance. Vesnina is another player, which preffers faster surfaces and she complained about shoulder/arm injury in that match. Imho, Suarez Navarro will be by far the toughest challenge for Kuznetsova this week and I simply don't see her as a favorite here.

Jovanovski ML @1.91 Pinnacle - 4 units

Knapp has been my go to fade material, lately. She simply can't find her form and the odds to go against her are still good enough to do so. As I wrote before, she is an aggresive baseliner, which looks to prevail in longer rallies with her heavy hitting, but this is a bad match up for her. Jovanovski is a very good defender and relenthless fighter. She forces her opponents to play an extra shot to win the point and that is not what Knapp needs at the moment.

[JustSomeCash]

Mann lol I just come to post how much CSN is bitch but then I remembered thats the ladyboy made the comeback to save this bet ass,so now all I have left to do is to cheer!

Good hit man

Looking forward to your Madrid open picks,peac!

[Honeybadger44]

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

Pennetta +1,5 (games) @1,91 Pinnacle - 5 units

Mathieu -3,5 @1,83 Pinnacle - 5 units (better odds can be found, shopping around)

Ivanovic/Goerges over 20,5 @1,90 Bet365 - 4 units

Verdasco ML @1,99 Pinnacle - 2 units

Sharapova -5 @1.79 Pinnacle - 4 units

Giraldo +4,5 @1.83 Bet365 - 3 units

Jankovic +1,5 games @1.81 Pinnacle - 4 units

Zahlavova Strycova ML @2,02 Pinnacle - 5 units

Sousa -2 @1,96 Pinnacle - 5 units

Suarez Navarro +2,5 @1.83 Pinnacle - 4 units

Jovanovski ML @1.91 Pinnacle - 4 units

record: 13-8-0
Hit rate: 61,9%
Staked: 77u
Yield: +22,08u
ROI: +28,67%

[Hardcoar]

I knew you were going to be good before you started.

Very impressive start. Keep postin'!

[Honeybadger44]

I knew you were going to be good before you started.

Very impressive start. Keep postin'!

Thanks, man! Means a lot coming from great tennis bettor, like yourself.

It is a nice looking start, but sample size is still to small to draw any conclusions. We will see how the stats will look, after bigger number of picks.

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, good luck dude. Always liked your write-ups.

[Hardcoar]

Thanks, man! Means a lot coming from great tennis bettor, like yourself.

It is a nice looking start, but sample size is still to small to draw any conclusions. We will see how the stats will look, after bigger number of picks.

I BET you're convinced I would've scoldered you for not saying that, had you not done so. I actually wasn't planning to, as a matter of fact.

[Honeybadger44]

I BET you're convinced I would've scoldered you for not saying that, had you not done so. I actually wasn't planning to, as a matter of fact.

You would lost that bet

[Hardcoar]

Oh, I bet I would've!

[Honeybadger44]

Isner ML @1.75 Pinnacle - 3 units

Unfortunatelly I was late to grab some better odds for Isner's win, but I stil think there is some value here. There is no doubt that Gabashvili played some good tennis lately, but Isner is whole another beast to tackle. Especially in Madrid, where conditons are bit different because of the altitude. Balls are traveling faster and bouncing bit higher, which suits perfectly to Isner. His serve will be even more difficult to handle, because of the power and also that kick serve on the AD side... DUring the rallies, higher bounce also suits Isner, which can go around to his forehand more often and hit the ball with his stronger side.
Gabashvili has adventage during the longer rallies, but we will not see many of those in this match, imho. It will mostly be the battle of 3 shots or less and I think that is the game, where Gabashvili will have a lost of troubles to keep up with Isner in these conditions.

[Honeybadger44]

Goerges +1,5 sets @2.10 Pinnacle - 3 units

As I said in my Isner write up, conditions in Madrid are bit different and should suit really well to Goerges' game. She said in an interview last time, that she loves that higher bounce on clay, when she can move to her forehand more often and dictate the points. In Stuttgart she was very inconsistant, but also showed that in every match, she can bite of a set, against pretty much everybody. There are periods during the match, when she is simply unstopable and her opponents can't do much about it.
Halep is a great defender, but she also wasn't at her best lately. Ans as I said, when Julia finds the right rhythm on her groundstrokes, opponents can't do much about it.

[Hardcoar]

They should but I stayed off because the odds were below @ 4.5.

[Honeybadger44]

Stephens +2,5 @1.94 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Price on Sloane is going from one extreme into another. Sometimes she is overvalued quite a lot and then after couple of losses, when every casual bettor starts to auto-fade her, she becomes under valued. That is the case here imho. I would probably be hesitant to pull the trigger on her, if this would be first round. But, since she beat Niculescu in first round, I am more confident with her, because I know that against Monica, you pretty much have to earn every point, because she will not give many free points to the opponent. I have to admit that I haven't seen that match, but I am talking from the experiance and from what I know about that player...
Cetkovska has 3 nice wins under her belt here, including qualies, but she doesn't have a typical clay court weapons, with which she could outsmart Stephens here.
I am going with theory: "Buy low, sell high", in this situation. And we can get Stephens at pretty low price here.

[TheBeastMode]

Nice call on Stephens!

[Honeybadger44]

Nice call on Stephens!

Thanks! It was a bit of a rollercoaster ride, but I am glad that it came through.

[JustSomeCash]

Poor me,missed your picks 3 tims in a row,but yet,good job like always man,keep it going!

[Honeybadger44]

Poor me,missed your picks 3 tims in a row,but yet,good job like always man,keep it going!

[JustSomeCash]

HB,any insight for later matchups?

Ver@Agut - over look good but odds fall down like shit,what you think about this game?

Giraff@Chardy - Frachshit can push Milos for the over or like you said week ago,he is trash and cant do shit.

Nishi@GGL - Nishi can kick lopez ass quick?

Waw@Th - Waw can cover 6 games HC for @2.50?

[Honeybadger44]

HB,any insight for later matchups?

Ver@Agut - over look good but odds fall down like shit,what you think about this game?

Giraff@Chardy - Frachshit can push Milos for the over or like you said week ago,he is trash and cant do shit.

Nishi@GGL - Nishi can kick lopez ass quick?

Waw@Th - Waw can cover 6 games HC for @2.50?

I was leaning Agut earlier. Not much value with those odds, but I didn't like what I saw from Verdasco yesterday. If he plays like that, he will lose.

Chardy was definitely bad lately. But that comeback win in first round and these conditions might wake him up litle bit. I wouldn't touch this one...

Also leaning Nishi 2-0. His shots work real nice on the clay courts and it seems like GGL might be cooling off, after that run in Casablanca and Monte carlo.

Wawrinka is strong on clay, but I wouldn't be so brave and take him to cover this big spread. Thiem is a talented kid. Austrian national television changed their schedule, so they could broadcast this match. He will be pumped up for this one, no doubt about it.

And from the WTA side, Lepchenko +5,5 could be worth of a look. Kvitova is just not that good at the moment, to be trusted with covering such high number.

Good luck!

[Hardcoar]

She beat Niculescu because she started to become dying of AIDS after winning first dude... if that was your logic you clearly lucked out.

Congrat's on the win though!

[Hardcoar]

Also, did you even watch Kvitova against Cirstea? That was a very high quality third set and the Cow was playing insanely well.

It should be added though that Lepchenko statistically speaking loves this tournament!

[Honeybadger44]

She beat Niculescu because she started to become dying of AIDS after winning first dude... if that was your logic you clearly lucked out.

Congrat's on the win though!

As I admited in my write up, I didn't see that Stephens-Niculescu match. So I draw my own conclusions, combining my knowledge of those players and the score. If my conclusions were wrong, then I was bit lucky here. But tnx for that info. It might be useful later on.

Also, did you even watch Kvitova against Cirstea? That was a very high quality third set and the Cow was playing insanely well.

It should be added though that Lepchenko statistically speaking loves this tournament!

I watched it until the early in the second set, then I switched to another match, so I didn't see that 3rd set performance.

Not that I am making excuses, but in tournaments like this, where both men and women compete, it is really hard to see most of the matches. Especially early on in the tournament, where you have situations where 6 matches are played at the same time. You simply have to adjust and work with what you have...

[Hardcoar]

Yes it is. Keep in mind I was only asking to make you consider other circumstances than those you were already considering.

I didn't watch the match, but apparently Niculescu became very ill somehow after winning 1:st... it's unclear to me at this point though.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah, don't worry. I am not keeping any grudges against the guys who have some constructive critisism. It is good to hear some other angles and oppinions.

[Honeybadger44]

Dimitrov +2,5 @1.81 Pinnacle - 2 units (better odds at some other books)

I am making a small play here on Dimitrov. I'd rather see a better line here, but this one is good enough. I simply think that struggle against Copil is no big deal. He will enjoy the underdog role here against Berdych and simply play his game. Of course, that is the point where he is most dangerous at. Berdych will attack, while he can do his magic from the back of the court, defending and counter punching.

Nishikori -3 @1.96 Pinnacle - 2 units

I don't understand why the odds are going up here. Nishikori played some amazing tennis against Garcia Lopez in previous round. Spaniard played his abslute best in first set, but it was far from enough to challenge Nishikori: Japanese is in form of his carrer imho and he is worht backing here.

Garcia +4 @1.92 Pinnacle - 5 units

I had a play against Errani in Stuttgart, wher I backed Sharapova to cover. I knew that Sharapova matches up really wel against Errani in those conditions and I think that Garcia has similar weapons and can use the same recipe to disrupt Sara's game today. Key is to shorten the points and not allow Errani to develop longer rallies, hitting her deep loopy shots from the baseline, which are difficult to attack. Garcia has a good looking serve and a strong shots, which she will use to attack Errani's serve right away. Just to make a small comparison. Few weeks ago, Garcia dominanted the tournament in Bogota, which was played in similar, high altitude conditions, like this one in Madrid.

[Honeybadger44]

Pavlyuchenkova +4,5 @1.95 Pinnacle - 2 units

I think that the line is too high. Pavlyuchenkova played well yesterday against Jankovic. Hitting the ball really well, while Ivanovic was stressed out against Jovanovski, for no reason. It should be a attractive match, with a lot of good shots from the both sides and much closer, then line is suggesting.


Lopez +2,5 @1.91 Pinnacle - 4 units

Thiem is coming of a emotional win against one of his idols. He went all in and it payed of for him. Still, I think that he is drained at the moment and I expect him not to play as well as the last time out. Lopez is getting more and more confident on this tournament. He is serving well and he is positive on the court. He was not much better then Youzhny in that match imho, but he played some smart tennis. As a lefty, he went often to Youzhny's one handed backhand, which is always smart thing to do on such clay, bouncy courts. He can do that again today and I think that Thiem will not be patient enough here and Lopez will get this one purely on experiance, being patient, going to Thiem's backhand a lot, playing slices on his backhand side and serve well.


Ferrer/Isner over 23 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units

AS we could read i the article, which forum member Tipsadontlikehim, kindly shared in other thread, Late evening matches are bit different then the ones during the day. Roof is closed, so we get indoor match and combined with that altitude, those conditions become really fast. Clay, or not clay, it is difficult to face Isner in such conditions.

[Honeybadger44]

Bencic ML @1.99 Pinnacle - 2 units

Hercog implemented many changes in her game and I am not sure if I like it. Before, she was a pretty typical dirtballer, while at the moment she relys heavily on her serve and power on her groundstrokes. She was solid in Marrakech and Oeiras, but I still think her game is not as effective on clay, as it was before, which makes her bit overrated on this surface, imho.
Bencic on the other side is a very talented girl, which has a nice chances to win today.

[JustSomeCash]

Where are you dear HB?! Rome starts today and I can not pass it without you!

A lot of junk revolves around these first rounds, and only you can catch the goldfish!

[Honeybadger44]

Sorry man. Didn't have much time to do some proper reasearch in past days, so I didn't want to post some BS picks here.

Not thrilled with the board today. Not many good matches imho. I went with Barthel over and the ML, for some change...

[fitguy67]

Sorry man. Didn't have much time to do some proper reasearch in past days, so I didn't want to post some BS picks here.

good approach HB...forcing plays just to keep us peons/the "audience"/"the troops" entertained is to be avoided...

when life doesn't allow the time to get sufficiently wised-up/confident about "anything"...then "nothing" is a way better play than "anything"...

there's a good handful of us that are waiting for the next instalment of plays...but we'll keep ourselves busy until they arrive...

[Hardcoar]

mmhm