Stacocakes French Open Thread

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Two more:

Crivoi 1.5 units @-125 : small value I think. Crivoi has had some really good results recently, and is one of the most underrated players on tour based on the odds.

Kendrick 0.66 units @+650 : I know this will generate some laughs, but Simon has been awful recently against both serve/volley and against big servers - he was easily beaten by Querrey in Dusseldorf, and bagelled by Soderling. Kendrick had 35 aces yesterday, and was serve/volleying constantly - when he played Simon in Estoril he had a setpoint, and that's a vastly slower court. What I'm hoping for is a repeat of the loss to Zverev in Rome, where Zverev won virtually every serve point - he couldn't do anything against Zverev's serve/volley, only won 20% of return points (he's normally up in the 40s+).

[Stacocakes]

LIke your plays guys.Always appreciate some feedback. Makes me add some plays I wouldn't otherwise have considered. Heres what I like for later tonight, not going to lock in anything yet EXCEPT for Seppi because I think the line will move in the direction I don't want between now and the start of the match.

Baghdatis +387 over Monaco - Baghdatis is capable of winning this match.Hoping that he pulls out some of the grand slam glory from his past . At a line like +387 its worth a SMALL play

Going to think of Tsonga a bit more when I get up. I know Benneteau has a winning record versus tsonga in the past and that Tsonga sucks ass on clay. I just can't find it in me to bet benneteau because I really can't trust him at all. Might make a small play on Tsonga here just based on talent and not based on the court. Will make it small enough that if Tsonga gets in trouble I can bail out with a live line on Benneteau

Korolev-Gimeno traver +147 - Korolev is coming off an injury in which he fell on one of those stands that the line judges stand on behind the court at the last tournament he played. There is talk that Korolev isn't even at the french open yet and they aren't sure if he will withdraw or not. With that being said, if the match does go on I am going to sprinkle a bit on Gimeno traver and just hope for a koroleve injury.Its worth it at +147. Again a small play

Seppi -180 you guys convinced me here with Seppi.I will tail you on this one.Feel good about it

Reynolds +560 over MOnfils - This is another injury type play.There was talk that Monfils might miss the french open yet it appears that he hasn't withdrawn yet. If he is legitimately injured and plays, a long 3-5 set match would take its toll on him. Could reaggrevate the injury.At +560 I am going to take my chances. Small play

James Blake -360 over Mayer - Blakes line has been dropping over the last couple of hours.Saw it at -400 and its still going down.Going to wait till match time to see what the line is at.Blake is pretty bad on clay but Mayer won't put up any opposition and Blake should be able to win this match. Not sure how much farther I think he could go though.

Serena Williams -485 over Zakopalova - Serena's line has been coming down as well. Concerns over Serena's health are in question plus she is rather poor on clay.Hoping this comes down in the next few hours and maybe I will think about betting it.Will see

Good luck tonight guys. Lets make some money

[Stacocakes]

Rain delay.I hate rain delays.Can never tell when its going to stop....thinking of going to bed....

Anyways gives me time to lock in some plays

Baghdatis moved to +430 in the last couple of hours which is even better then the +387 earlier.

Tsonga is now down to -196.Taking a bit of that small

Gimeno-traver +160 small

Seppi already locked in at -180

Reynolds +510, don't like it as much as the +560 earlier but will take a small sprinkle

Blake went down blah.He is at -375 now.Will take him at that

Serena Williams -445 moving the direction I would like which is good.Will play serena but going to wait a bit till the action restarts

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I just got some Kendrick at +700 (centrebet). Watching Schuettler eat two bagels here against Gicquel, after the two bagels the Sod gave him last week.

Simon lost to this guy, somehow (and in straights).

[Stacocakes]

Kendrick is worth a shot.Simon has been complaining about his lack of energy and poor play so a +700 shot is worth it.
Looks as though Monfils isn't to injured.He is destroying Reynolds. Korolev retired though so that cashes the Gimeno-Taver +160 bet perfectly.Hopefully you guys have a book where you just need one set to be completed like Betfair.If its two sets then that sucks
Forgot about gonzalez over fish.Might get that on in-game.Fish is brutal on clay

[Stacocakes]

Great day so far with tennis. Hit on the Gimeno-taver, Tsonga, serena williams and Seppi plays.
Lost on reynolds and baghdatis but those were big dog shots in the dark
Just have Blake left to cap off a good day hopefully
Anyone have any plays they like for tomorrow?

[Stacocakes]

Great straight set loss by Blake to ruin an otherwise good day. Made just enough today to get a ****ing happy meal at macdonalds thanks to James Blake.Was totally worth staying up and watching since 3 AM and getting no sleep. **** me

Theres always tomorrow guys. Hopefully everyone else did better.I'm still down overall for this tournament though its still early

[soxwin1917]

Great straight set loss by Blake to ruin an otherwise good day. Made just enough today to get a ****ing happy meal at macdonalds thanks to James Blake.Was totally worth staying up and watching since 3 AM and getting no sleep. **** me

Theres always tomorrow guys. Hopefully everyone else did better.I'm still down overall for this tournament though its still early

That's the worst thing with these tournaments, waking up early, watching scores, and not coming out ahead at the end of the day.
I feel your pain.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man I don't know how you can stomach those big favorites on single plays. I had Blake blow my 3 selection parlay and am angry enough at that. Pissing me off further was that I talked myself out of taking Andreas Beck in the third spot of that parlay and talked myself into taking Blake.

[Stacocakes]

What I do for all of the big favorites I take is that I bet an amount that is easy to bail on.When I first started to bet tennis I would take a big favorite and hammer the line and would win most of the time but once in awhile that big favorite would tank and the amount that I bet was so hard to bail on that I would try to hedge out my bet and I would be killed with a huge loss. For the Blake match today I had an average amount of money on him but when he lost the first set I started to get a bit weary of him and hedged out a chunk of my bet. Still lost money on that match but it could have been worse. Just whiped out most of what I won today thats all.
Looking at tomorrow this is what I like so far:

Golubev and Hewitt - Hewitt really shouldn't be -478 at this point in his career vs anyone. Did he step into a time machine and go back 7 years overnight or something? Golubev is not very good and I probably won't bet this match either way but I think that Hewitt is way over priced here.

Wawrinka is to high as well. He basically lost to devilder in the first round being down two breaks and 2 sets to 1 but devilder choked away the match and wawrinka came back and won. He was favored around -1100 for that match to. Way to much for him.

Most of the lines are over inflated for tomorrow. No real value in any of the favorites.....Verdasco -3500? Davydenko -1715?What the ****....

Youzhny -214 over Hanescu - Youzhny playing great tennis coming into this tournament. Hanescu has won 4 of his last 10 matches on clay. 2-2 head to head in there careers with Youzhny winning the most recent match up, though it wasn't on clay.Youzhny looks like the play and it is reasonably priced.

Lopez +133 over Tipasarevic - Lopez is 3-0 vs tipsarevic in his career, though none of the matches were on clay. I like Lopez's serve and think that he can use that to his advantage in this match.Tipsarevic is pretty hit or miss lately so the play seems to be pretty decent. Lopez had a tough first round match coming back from 2-0 sets down I believe if I remember correctly so hopefully that won't be an issue.

Venus williams -431 over Safarova - Venus is 2-0 vs safarova in there career and both matches were on clay. I have a feeling that this line will get bet alot overnight because Venus is a public player. Can't see her losing this match.The williams sisters, eventhough not that great on clay, are just a level above the other players in the WTA, especially mentally. The only way the sisters lose is if if they play really really bad and the girl they are playing has a great match.Don't see that happening here.Time to go home Safarova

Sharapova +132 over Petrova - Sharapova is 5 and 2 career vs petrova. Eventhough she is recovering from her injury and playing fairly sloppy tennis on occassion its to hard to pass up sharapova at plus money. Sharapova may not always play great but she is one of those players that will always scrap out a match and usually win eventhough her play was very bad.She had a good test in the first round and showed some good flashes in that match of the old sharapova so I am willing to take her as a dog in this situation.

I was thinking about womens tennis and wondering what you guys think about this.... I was wondering what you guys think the success rate would be if you were betting womens tennis and you bet the underdog for every match where a girl, that is outside of the 10 best girls in tennis, was favored at -500 or more. Lots of upsets in womens tennis and really anything can happen.The chance of an upset in womens tennis is probably alot better then on the mens side. Wish I had thought of this before Panetta in the first round which was like -1000.Geez that would have been huge. One of the examples i saw for tomorrow that made me think of this betting style was seeing Cibulkova at -670 over Flipkens. I really don't think Cibulkova should be over -500 over any women's tennis player. Betting those types of lines for average players is a recipe for disaster.Cibulkova and Li would be two good examples for tomorrow. Wondering what your guys opinion on this would be

GOod luck with your bets for day 4 guys

[Stacocakes]

A little side not to add about tipsarevic, he is 8 and 13 versus left hand players. Another thing that makes Lopez look like a good bet

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Lopez-Tipsy is very, very hard to cap imo.

Wrt the lefty record, this is something I take some care over - win/loss stats can be a little misleading because you end up with very small samples, and Nadal/Verdasco tend to skew the numbers by beating everybody. Also, several of the lefties are a particular type of big-serving net chargers: Llodra, Melzer, Muller, Lopez, Zverev and co.

I certainly won't be betting on tipsy though - as a favourite, he's lazy, and produces any number of bad results (his record between -300 and -120 is woeful, around -20% EV).


Probably I go for the over. Lopez produced 30 aces in his last match, tipsy 18. Neither has the best return to start with, so a long match is quite likely here.


Edit: scratch that, just saw the schedule/weather, they're first on and it's pretty cold/damp then apparently.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Sharapova match is intriguing, but hard to put money on her at this point. Her serve just isn't helping her cause right now and that would be a big weapon to help aid her in returning to form. Petrova is inconsistent though on this surface, so anything is possible. One thing I have noticed for Petrova. When she wins fairly easy to start off a tournament, she is more apt to get on a two-three match roll. So tempting to take Sharapova because if she does find a way to win, you probably won't get a dog price on her any more.

That Lopez-Tipsarevic match like HeeHaw said, really don't see much of an advantage there. I think Tipsarevic will win, but wouldn't pay that price.

I'm thinking about Gulbis tomorrow. What does that tell you about my picks?

[xxdjstriderxx]

going to parlay venus williams and sharapova for 100

[xxdjstriderxx]

sharapova line is dropping fast

[BobHarvey]

What I do for all of the big favorites I take is that I bet an amount that is easy to bail on.When I first started to bet tennis I would take a big favorite and hammer the line and would win most of the time but once in awhile that big favorite would tank and the amount that I bet was so hard to bail on that I would try to hedge out my bet and I would be killed with a huge loss. For the Blake match today I had an average amount of money on him but when he lost the first set I started to get a bit weary of him and hedged out a chunk of my bet. Still lost money on that match but it could have been worse. Just whiped out most of what I won today thats all.
Looking at tomorrow this is what I like so far:

Golubev and Hewitt - Hewitt really shouldn't be -478 at this point in his career vs anyone. Did he step into a time machine and go back 7 years overnight or something? Golubev is not very good and I probably won't bet this match either way but I think that Hewitt is way over priced here.

Wawrinka is to high as well. He basically lost to devilder in the first round being down two breaks and 2 sets to 1 but devilder choked away the match and wawrinka came back and won. He was favored around -1100 for that match to. Way to much for him.

Most of the lines are over inflated for tomorrow. No real value in any of the favorites.....Verdasco -3500? Davydenko -1715?What the ****....

Youzhny -214 over Hanescu - Youzhny playing great tennis coming into this tournament. Hanescu has won 4 of his last 10 matches on clay. 2-2 head to head in there careers with Youzhny winning the most recent match up, though it wasn't on clay.Youzhny looks like the play and it is reasonably priced.

Lopez +133 over Tipasarevic - Lopez is 3-0 vs tipsarevic in his career, though none of the matches were on clay. I like Lopez's serve and think that he can use that to his advantage in this match.Tipsarevic is pretty hit or miss lately so the play seems to be pretty decent. Lopez had a tough first round match coming back from 2-0 sets down I believe if I remember correctly so hopefully that won't be an issue.

Venus williams -431 over Safarova - Venus is 2-0 vs safarova in there career and both matches were on clay. I have a feeling that this line will get bet alot overnight because Venus is a public player. Can't see her losing this match.The williams sisters, eventhough not that great on clay, are just a level above the other players in the WTA, especially mentally. The only way the sisters lose is if if they play really really bad and the girl they are playing has a great match.Don't see that happening here.Time to go home Safarova

Sharapova +132 over Petrova - Sharapova is 5 and 2 career vs petrova. Eventhough she is recovering from her injury and playing fairly sloppy tennis on occassion its to hard to pass up sharapova at plus money. Sharapova may not always play great but she is one of those players that will always scrap out a match and usually win eventhough her play was very bad.She had a good test in the first round and showed some good flashes in that match of the old sharapova so I am willing to take her as a dog in this situation.

I was thinking about womens tennis and wondering what you guys think about this.... I was wondering what you guys think the success rate would be if you were betting womens tennis and you bet the underdog for every match where a girl, that is outside of the 10 best girls in tennis, was favored at -500 or more. Lots of upsets in womens tennis and really anything can happen.The chance of an upset in womens tennis is probably alot better then on the mens side. Wish I had thought of this before Panetta in the first round which was like -1000.Geez that would have been huge. One of the examples i saw for tomorrow that made me think of this betting style was seeing Cibulkova at -670 over Flipkens. I really don't think Cibulkova should be over -500 over any women's tennis player. Betting those types of lines for average players is a recipe for disaster.Cibulkova and Li would be two good examples for tomorrow. Wondering what your guys opinion on this would be

GOod luck with your bets for day 4 guys

I wanted your thoughts on Agnes Szavay -135 against Elena Vesnina

Thanks!

[Stacocakes]

Good comments guys.I think that your posts have persuaded me to stay away from the tips/lopez match. Both players are inconsistant and the match really is a toss up so probably best to stay away from that one.

Here are the plays that I am going to stick with :

Youhzny over Hanescu -225
Venus williams over Safarova -400
Sharapova over Petrova +139

BobHarvey I feel that Szavay match is a toss up and definately a no play for me. Both have had some sucess on clay in the weeks leading up to the tournament.I don't really have a lean either way.I believe vesnina is 1-0 head to head over Szavay but that was last year on a different court so it isn't that relevant. Not really a match worth betting in my opinion. Maybe some of the other posters here have other opinions on the match.

Eaglesphan I like your Gulbis play.Guy has all of the tools.Just missing something upstairs every once in awhile and it affects his play.If he is on then he can be a very good player. Almagro is starting to lose his fitness and is also very inconsistant.Definately think that the line should be a bit lower. Gulbis is the right side if you must play a side on this game.Personally I am passing on it. Have been taking to many of these games that are toss ups and its affecting my bottom line number at the end of the day so going to change things up a bit. Best of luck with your plays

Best of luck to everyone tonight. Hope your plays hit

[BobHarvey]

The Sharapova match is intriguing, but hard to put money on her at this point. Her serve just isn't helping her cause right now and that would be a big weapon to help aid her in returning to form. Petrova is inconsistent though on this surface, so anything is possible. One thing I have noticed for Petrova. When she wins fairly easy to start off a tournament, she is more apt to get on a two-three match roll. So tempting to take Sharapova because if she does find a way to win, you probably won't get a dog price on her any more.

That Lopez-Tipsarevic match like HeeHaw said, really don't see much of an advantage there. I think Tipsarevic will win, but wouldn't pay that price.

I'm thinking about Gulbis tomorrow. What does that tell you about my picks?

EP,

Have you got an opinion on Agnes Szavay -135 against Elena Vesnina

[The General]

Solid thread guys

[Rizzla]

Favourite double of the day:

1 Carla Suarez Navarro @ 1.40
2 Iveta Benesova @ 1.40

[Stacocakes]

Youzhny 5-4 serving for the first set and gets broken and then ends up losing the first set 7-5. Starts the second set off by getting broken and being down 2-0.....grrrrrrreat start to the day so far

[Stacocakes]

Murray in danger of going down 2 sets to 1. Wow

[cuteboy86hi]

can go 2 breaks down

[Stacocakes]

What a turnaround by murray.Was two breaks down with Starace twice serving for the third set and he breaks Starace twice to square it up at 5 and then breaks him again to win the third set 7-5.Surely no way Starace can rebound from blowing that.Its like Devilder the other day having a two set to 1 lead over Wawrinka with two breaks up and blowing both of those.Never recovered in the match.
Murray was at odds of +140 in this match today.Unbelievable.Grabbed some at evens

[Stacocakes]

As expected Murray finishes up with Starace.Thought that last set would be more lopsided but will take it.
Youzhny looking bad down two sets to love and on serve in the third.
Surprised gulbis lost. Figured he would win but didn't want to make a play on him

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Like the Fognini first set in Monte Carlo, goes 1-5 in a set then wins it :-)

This is perhaps where Roland Garros may be a better hope for Murray than the clay masters. He's prone to these big lapses in form on clay - not his natural surface, and hard to constantly play against your natural game. However, in best of 5 there's so much more time to recover.

Still a bit dubious he reaches the semis though. Cilic looks to be in pretty good form now, although perhaps his hard court style is one Murray will be comfortable with. The big threat is Gonzo in the quarters - anything that isn't nice and deep is going to get killed.

[Stacocakes]

Agree.Gonzo seems to be playing some great tennis right now.Verdasco as well.Will be interested to see how far both go in this tournament.
Sharapova is about to start,think she has a good chance of winning this.Petrova plays poorly against the better players
Easy win for Simon today. His odds were absolutely hammered right before match time.He closed at over -800.Kendrick had no chance
Glad you guys talked me out of this lopez match. Going to go right down to the end.Don't need anymore stress haha

[cuteboy86hi]

hey name me some american book for tennis livebetting.I'm stuck with betcris, no in-game betting no under/over

[EaglesPhan36]

Props on Sharapova if she finishes this off. She looked dead in the water in the 3rd, down 4-2 and I think down at least 15-40 in that game. It's 4-4 and she's serving 40-15.

[Stacocakes]

Cuteboy I am not sure if there are any books that have live betting for tennis for americans.I know Bet 365, Betfair,bwin all have live tennis betting but I don't think they allow americans
Sharapova came through.Great match. She fought up so many break points when she had to.The ability to win those big points is what seperates the elite players from everyone else.Petrova has always been a player that couldn't deliver when she really had to. Glad that match is over with

[SBR Lou]

Sharapova & Szavay cash, Szavay looked dominant. Waiting on Groenefeld to complete the 3-0.

[EaglesPhan36]

Why aren't you posting your picks ahead of time Lou Lou? Show these suckaz who the king is. I'm 0 for the tourney on posted picks!

[cuteboy86hi]

Cuteboy I am not sure if there are any books that have live betting for tennis for americans.I know Bet 365, Betfair,bwin all have live tennis betting but I don't think they allow americans

No, i'm not from USA but betcris only transfers funds to other american books and not european books that u mentioned.Is there livebetting on pinnacle?

[SBR Lou]

Why aren't you posting your picks ahead of time Lou Lou? Show these suckaz who the king is. I'm 0 for the tourney on posted picks!

There's less and less value on the +200ish selections as we progress further through the tourney as lines get sharper.

[cuteboy86hi]

I missed sharapova game .Its so rare when a clearly better player has better price.Kind of like roddick v Haas in madrid.