The French Open

[illmatick]

nice call on pova, she looked dead for a second

[EaglesPhan36]

I think it's just her working back into shape and match competitiveness. Like I said, the fact that she is this far without being at 100% should signal to the other ladies that Sharapova by US Open time is going to be a factor if she can remain healthy. One thing not talked about - Dinara Safina. She is CRUISING at RG. Maybe the least attention paid to a #1 seed in quite some time because of people following Sharapova & Serena and then the other stories are the crash outs of Venus & Dementieva. Safina probably won't have a better shot to win a major than this.

[flyingillini]

I hit Sodderman for +3000 yeah boyeee check the spreadsheet nigg

[MartinBlank]

I hit Sodderman for +3000 yeah boyeee check the spreadsheet nigg

Who the hell is "Sodderman"?

[cuteboy86hi]

soderling

[Karayilan9]

Nice picks EaglesPhan, I took Sharapova aswell, she fought like a lioness today

Lets get in early leans for tomorrow and discuss them.

I'm staying on the Monfils train.

Tsonga @ +200 could be worth a shot, while I think Del Potro is the better player on clay, Tsonga has the momentum and the crowd with him. At this stage in the French open its not just talent which counts, just as important is psychological side of the game, whose got balls of steel, who can cope with pressure etc these factors are just important in big comps. I think Monfils and Tsonga are the kind of player who play their best tennis at the highest level especially when the home crowd is on their side.

And how about Haas to cause another upset and beat Fed I haven't been impressed with Fed.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I'm really stuck on Tsonga-DelPot. Clearly DelPotro is the better claycourter, it's not even close. This will be his first time in the lion's den though, with a roaring crowd behind the opponent. How will he cope? Have to say I haven't the faintest idea.

We've seen better guys fold completely like this, and with Tsonga netrushing he's going to be under a lot of pressure to thread the needle with passing shots. Precision under a pressure you're not used to is a nasty combo.

Actually, there's an easy answer: over 39.5 @-120. Tsonga will surely make a lot more errors, and Del Potro is relentless with those heavy groundstrokes, so hard to see Tsonga winning in straights. With Tsonga's serve, and the inspiration of the crowd, it's hard not to see him taking a set also. Have to go think about this, but seems the obvious answer.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm not touching that one, but as with any match-up with two Top 10 talents, there's no real reason the price should be that high on someone. Del Potro has more clay court experience in terms of overall matches, but Tsonga doesn't have a large enough body of work as I have said to really say he IS or IS NOT going to be solid on this surface. This will be a big litmus test for him. Beating Monaco was big for his psyche, but the other two opponents were garbage. Del Potro rolled through three rounds barely being tested with Andreev as his toughest opponent, but one he had beaten just a week or so before the French. Tsonga should have taken notes today from Soderling because I think it's his best way to beat Del Potro ... play high risk, high reward tennis. That's kinda Tsonga's game anyhow. I'd side with the better price if playing this one straight up, although I do think Del Potro is going to win. Should be a nice slugfest.

[EaglesPhan36]

Monfils -135
*Roddick's "new" clay court form being touted by some people isn't really new, he's just actually progressed through a weak portion of the draw at RG. He's faced nothing like what Monfils will bring. The Frenchman looks fit and that is the key. If he is healthy, this is his surface to win on. Roddick's serve should allow him to win at least a set, but I think Monfils takes it home in the end.

Robredo -125
*The Spaniard is probably pleased to see Kohlschreiber here vs. Djokovic. Kohlschreiber has surprised me to get this far. His match vs. Ferrero two rounds ago was a toss-up and perhaps if play had not suspended, Kohlschreiber might not even be here. Robredo has been great on dirt this year, I think he's won something like 75-80% of his matches on the surface and several titles in the South American swing early in the year. Kohlschreiber despite his run here does not like playing on clay and I'll take Robredo and his obvious like for the surface to win.

Razzano +120
*Stosur gets the favorite tag for upsetting Dementieva. Dementieva shouldn't have been around last round anyhow, but got lucky when her previous opponent retired. Stosur is a capable player, but would be better suited on a faster surface. Razzano isn't particularly flashy, but she's been effective and provided some nice value around this same price for most of the tournament.

[moonbeam]

Do americans really bet on this event?

[moonbeam]

Tennis is not baseball

[EaglesPhan36]

Why wouldn't we? You bet anything you think you know if you want to make a profit.

[moonbeam]

Why wouldn't we? You bet anything you think you know if you want to make a profit.

Ok, This is a good statement

[EaglesPhan36]

Robredo might have been the easiest bet of the day tennis-wise. Federer showed the heart of a champion in coming back to win, but he has not impressed at RG. Seems like he is playing down to the level of his opponent. Fortunate thing for him is that the level of his opponents rise dramatically from this point on, so hopefully we get to see home boy's "A" game in the quarters and forward.

[SexyMit]

Why wouldn't we? You bet anything you think you know if you want to make a profit.

Very true! I know nothing of WNBA but I did very well last yr betting on it!

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like 2-1 today for me. Razzano laid an egg, but she was the least confident bet I had among that trio, so that's alright if one had to lose.

Intriguing match-ups tomorrow. Will look more later tonight after I cap my baseball for the day. One I absolutely love is Fernando Gonzalez at +125....+130 over Andy Murray.

[cuteboy86hi]

Hey do u post your mlb picks?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I have a thread in the baseball section. You would do well to FADE the F out of me right now in baseball. I'm 1-10 or something horrible like that in the last couple weeks. I mean epic. BAD. But so long as my picks provide something, I post 'em! Right now it's FADErade material until I can string some winning picks together.

[Karayilan9]

Karayilan
I took Monfils before the tournament started @ +39900 , its worth a shot, Monfils isn't as bad as the odds make out

Monfils is now @ +900, I thought he had a slim outside chance at the start of the tournament, now I'd say he had a realistic chance, its in his hands now, the guys playing the best tennis out of those left in the tourny.

Also took him for the game as I said earlier I'm riding the train till it de-rails or makes it to the final destination. Put another huge bet on Monfils and a small wager on 3-0 @ +700.

The big test is next round, he's got Federer, he shouldn't fear Fed! at this stage its all psychological, Fed is playing crap and been having ridiculous trouble against no-hopers. He relies on the crowd to lift him but there will be no annoying Fed square fans for him in this game, his ego will be hit hard and we could see more tears.

[EaglesPhan36]

If he can beat Federer, I'd say he would be the odds on favorite to win it all IMO. Beating Federer is going to be tough though. Fed has beaten him here before in 2008. Of the guys left, I think these guys have the best shots.

1. Federer - Have to give him the edge because of experience even if his play has not been solid.
2. Monfils - Might be the best combo of defense/offense left in the field if he is on from the first point. Only problem I see with his play is he's still somewhat inconsistent from match to match.
3. Gonzalez - This guy is quietly having a helluva clay court season and has an inexperienced Andy Murray in the quarters and then Soderling or Davydenko.
4. Davydenko - He's kind of "Aww-schucks" -ing it up, saying he's just here to have fun and win a few matches. If he gets by Soderling, he matches up favorably against Gonzo or Murray IMO.

Dark horse has to be Soderling. Why the F not? If you can beat Nadal at RG, you can beat everyone who is left.

[Karayilan9]

EaglesPhan
If he can beat Federer, I'd say he would be the odds on favorite to win it all IMO. Beating Federer is going to be tough though. Fed has beaten him here before in 2008.

Fed beat him in every game head to head, however however, Monfils of last year and the Monfils were seeing now are two different players. The old Monfils was very inconsistent, inexperienced and prone to errors, he'd always go for the ridiculous shot instead of playing it safe and end up loosing games he could have so easily have won. These days he makes far less errors, constructs points much better, only plays the ridiculous shots when its to his advantage and has improved his serve.

Fed will be favourite because of his name and history not because of how he's been playing. However, he has the experience and knows this may be his only chance to ever win the French open so he'll want this bad. But if he plays anything like he did against Haas or Acasuso he can want it all he likes, the better man will beat him.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st impressions

Just a first look at the men's bracket and Roger Federer might have gotten the easiest draw assuming Monfils does indeed withdraw. He has Roddick at the top of the bracket and then in his half, Blake, Berdych, Mathieu ... no one who can really hurt him at all. I think he got done a tremendous favor with this draw.

Nadal's bracket has some tricky spots. Ferrer or Soderling possibly and Verdasco likely in the Quarters. Not that they will beat him, but I think he got stuck with a tougher draw as the #1 seed than you'd expect.

Djokovic's is pretty breezy till the quarters and Del Potro potentially. He has Robredo and maybe Ferrero in his half, but he can beat them.

Murray's is interesting. Simon is in the bottom half, but I honestly don't think he makes it past the 2nd round if that far. Simon faces Odesnik who has played decent on dirt than likely Fernando Gonzalez who I think would beat him rather easily on this surface. Murray has Tiparevic, F.Lopez, Stepanek & Cilic in his portion of the draw. I really think I might like Gonzalez to come out of this side.

This is only fun for me, but I wanted to see how my impressions compared against what's gone down. Federer still on track, but Monfils will be tough. Was right about the tricky draw for Nadal, but certainly still not expecting a loss. Djokovic - way off. Del Potro spot on. Fernando Gonzalez might make me look good.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st impressions

Safina has a pretty tough bracket based on potential. She could face Rezai or Brito in the top half of her bracket, both capable clay courters. Down low, she'll get a huge test in the quarters from Azarenka or Suarez-Navarro. I would include Ivanovic, but I doubt she'll be around to trouble Safina.

Venus also has a touchy bracket. Szavay in a potential 3rd round match could oust her. Szavay took a set off her in Acapulco earlier this year & comes into the French having beaten Azarenka, Rezai and Pennetta in her tune-up. If she skates there, Venus still has A.Bondarenko (very hot right now) or possible Dulko or Mauresmo in the Round of 16. Bottom side should shape for Zvonareva to get through if her long layoff (month plus) doesn't leave her vulnerable to Petrova or Sharapova if she can pull it together. This is a pretty wide open bracket. I see 4-5 players who could feasibly make the semis out of here and Venus wouldn't be my top choice because this is easily her worst major.

Jankovic/Dementieva in the same bracket. Wow. This one is easily the most competitive. Jankovic's road to winning this portion could have Chakvetadze in the 3rd (she's resurgent), Wozniacki in the 4th and then Dementieva in the quarters. She'll earn it if she makes it. I'll be looking more, but I think I like Wozniacki as a dark horse in this bracket. She's beaten Dementieva on clay and made 3 clay finals this Spring. She's also +2000 in futures at Carib right now.

Serena has an easier bracket, but her health is a major question mark. Zakapalova could bite her in Round 1 if Serena isn't fit. Up top in this bracket, I like Kuznetsova. She had a good Spring on clay and beat Safina. There's some middle players here like A.Radwanska, Schnyder & Pennetta ... but this bracket IMO belongs to a healthy Serena or Kuznetsova. Even though Kuzy chokes in majors more often than not, this could be her shot to run to another Final possibly?

Safina looks spot on so far. Didn't real pick a player in the 2nd bracket, but the gut was more right than wrong, especially with Venus. Third bracket got blown up with upsets, I just backed the wrong horse there. Bottom one is looking solid.

So sometimes instincts work, the trick is f-ing listening to them!

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonzalez +135
*I just don't see any definitive proof of illness or injury related to Gonzo. It's all rumor and innuendo as to why he pulled out of doubles play and did not practice. Could simply be that he felt he needed a day off. Who knows. But I don't have the luxury of waiting until match time to make a pick since it goes off early in the AM. At full health on this surface, I rate Gonzalez the better player at the moment. Not many have noticed his quality form on clay this year. The Gonz won his home tournament in Chile and then finished as a semifinalist in Rome & Barcelona. If you go back to last year's French (QF) and through to the current point, he's 22-3 on clay losses to Nadal, Ferrer & Federer in last year's French. For me, Murray is still learning to play on dirt. Only slightly more than 50 dirt matches in his career. That has shown in his results with a nice run to the semis in Monte Carlo (Nadal), but then losing 1st round to Juan Monaco in Rome and in the QF to Del Potro in Madrid. Both haven't been overly tested at RG. Cilic pushed Murray for two sets, but the Brit got both tie breaks. Gonzo has yet to yield a set, but hasn't played anyone as good as Murray. I think Gonzo's confidence on this surface is at its best and this is probably his best chance to get to his 2nd Grand Slam semifinal. He'll need his serve to be strong and whip those forehand winners in, but I think he rates a good shot for the upset here.

[Karayilan9]

I like Gonzalez here, only thing is I don't trust his nerve and he has a tendency to fall asleep and play sloppy sometimes at the start of games. For example, his recent games against Monaco. He just didn't turn up in the 1st set but when his game got on track he blew Monaco out the water.

Murray is a scrapper, he'll try and grind him out and has a record on the big stage, on a good day he's a Nadal and Fed beater.

Might look at Over/Under games, this may be a long one.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think it's a misnomer that Murray has some sort of edge in Major experience. He has never been this far at RG and also has just the one Slam final to his credit like Gonzo. Remember this is just Murray;s third trip to RG, Gonzo has been doing this one since 2000 and has now made the QF three times.

[SexyMit]

I'm liking Gonzo tomorrow as well. GL guys for the AM play!

[EaglesPhan36]

Also going to go small on the Russian Trifecta for a parlay: Safina, Sharapova, Davydenko. Pays a little over 2:1. Going to bet maybe half the unit size of the Gonzalez bet to try and back cover that in case Gonzalez does turn out to be less than 100%. Think all the Russians have enough edges to take at their prices, but as per my custom, I don't take single plays at the prices for Davydenko & Safina. Sharapova I might at -145 even with the Lou Jinx in effect.

[EaglesPhan36]

So glad I didn't let the virus talk detract me from the play I wanted to make in Gonzalez. This was a guy I really thought had a chance to get to this spot with the way his draw was set up. The semi between him and Soderling is going to be outstanding I think. Lots of ripping forehands. I hope Gonzo comes in as the dog again, I'll likely take him. Soderling is playing incredibly right now, but I'm digging Gonzo on this surface. Gonna check prices for tomorrow and take a look this afternoon.

[Karayilan9]

Nice pick with Gonzo and his Gontastic forehand shots

I think he'll be a favorite against Soderling, its gonna be an interesting game, Gonzo's got more weapons but Soderlings got the motivation and belief.

I'm keeping with Monfils tomorrow, he's got a real chance tomorrow, just hope he doesn't choke like Feds other opponenets have. Also Del Portro could do it tomorrow, I don't Robredo too highly, he plays a smart game but doesn't have the power of Del Potro.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Del Potro will win, but cannot take that high a price on a single match. He has too much of everything for Robredo and would have to totally crack I think to lose to him. This is his best shot at a Slam semi. No blocks like Murray at the US Open or Federer at the Australian. This is all on him. I don't think a lot of people realize yet that of all the talk of Andy Murray rising up in the Top 3 and all the other good young players that Del Potro is #5 and just might wind up being the best all-around player for the next decade. He's already ahead of Murray on clay and maybe just a hair behind on hard courts.

Quarters at three successive Slams now. Grass is really the only surface he has yet to have great success on, but that's mainly due perhaps to a lack of match play (13 matches on grass). This guy has the look of a Grand Slam contender perhaps in all four Majors which outside of Federer and Nadal, no one else has really been.

Props that offer better than taking Del Potro straight up to me: Del Potro in straights at =110 and Del Potro in 4 at +240. I can't see Robredo winning more than a set.

[SexyMit]

How about Serena Williams tomorrow? Anyone liking her?

[illmatick]

Im going the other way with Svetlana Kuznetsova, also taking a shot with Monfils

[EaglesPhan36]

Del Potro 3-0 +110
Del Potro 3-1 +240
*Playing these both for one unit with the hope of coming out with either a small profit if he wins in straights or a larger one if he wins in 4. Much prefer this over -455 I see on him now although I do think he's a solid shot to advance, but at this stage again anything is possible and I wouldn't want to lose 4.55 units on a single bet. Del Potro has played very strong in this tournament, losing his only set last time out in a tie break to Tsonga. He's not getting the publicity that the #5 ranked player might get for getting to this point, but he should as he works into the semifinals. Del Potro has that rare combo of size, power and a solid return game working for him. Robredo will make him work on his favorite surface, but Robredo really doesn't have the arsenal to hurt Del Potro. For me, this one is all about the mentality of JMDP to come out in this one. He has to take the court and play like Robredo can't touch him. Don't think about the magnitude of the moment, just know you're the better player on court and play like it. Robredo has won just 12 matches in his last 50 against Top 10 players with his last win coming against Ferrer in July 2008. I think the chances of it going five are fairly slim as Del Potro has played 35 matches in his career in the Best of 5 format with only three going the full five sets. And if it goes five, then Robredo may very well be in position to pull off another stunning upset in this tournament of upsets. I'll feel better if that's the case only losing two units vs. more than twice that for taking Del Potro straight up.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think there has been absolutely no line movement for the women's matches as I can recall. I think they are still right around the opening prices. I think a ton of the action is going on Monfils-Federer. I was hoping some people would pound Serena's price and give Kuznetsova a plus money price, but it's -105 at my book still. I'm still on the fence with that one. My guy says Kuznetsova and that's how I capped the tournament when the draw came out, but the mind reminds me that she is one of those ditzy Russians.