2017 Tennis Season Thread, Picks, Discussion and everything else by Yours Truly

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Milos Raonic
Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut +5.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $138.54 for a profit of $131.90

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Dominic Thiem vs David Goffin
Handicap: David Goffin -1.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: $138.54 for a profit of $129.40

[Jeff_Black]

Excellent work so far, Jeff_Black!

Thanks, just gotta keep on grinding

[Conqueror]

Thanks, just gotta keep on grinding

Great work!

[Elton Jack]

wrong thread

[Elton Jack]

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, R16
Gael Monfils vs Rafael Nadal
Total Score: Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 on William Hill
Stake: $138.54 for a profit of $126.07

Pinnacle have these lines too just taking the better odds with WH compared to Pinnacle. Not as confident in 39.5 but will take the small odds hit for my own safety. If it goes over comfortably then oh well 😁
Confident it'll go over and be four sets at least though

[Enjoi]

Great stuff Jeff. Appreciate the selections, mate. Keep it up!

[Don_Omarion]

way to go, pal

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut +5.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle (+$131.90)
Handicap: David Goffin -1.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle ($129.40)
Total Games: Over 38.5 @ 1.91 on William Hill (-$138.54)

YTD: 54-44-6 (+$936.83)
Bankroll: $2893.78

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, QF
Stan Wawrinka vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.27 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.69 for a profit of $183.76

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Men's singles, QF
Roger Federer vs Mischa Zverev
Total Score: Over 32.5 games @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.69 for a profit of $135.14

[lucasdawg]

hows your input for tomorrow???

dimitrov v goffin

konta v williams

[Jeff_Black]

Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.27 on Pinnacle (-$144.69)
Total Score: Over 32.5 games @ 1.934 on Pinnacle (-$144.69)


YTD: 54-46-6 (+$647.49)
Bankroll: $2604.40

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, QF
Grigor Dimitrov vs David Goffin
Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -3.5 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: $130.22 for a profit of $127.62

[Jeff_Black]

hows your input for tomorrow???

dimitrov v goffin

konta v williams

no women's from me, been a bizzare enough Aussie open for me as it is haha, would have loved Konta at better odds but +150 isn't enticing enough imo

[miczz14]

dimitrov -3.5 means he should win all 4 quarters?

[Jeff_Black]

Nah he can win in however many sets he wants (and in some rare cases lose) as long as the difference in games won is higher then that handicap number I posted.

[hedgejob]

Dimi in beast mode right now, good hit.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -3.5 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle (+$127.62)

YTD: 55-46-6 (+$775.11)
Bankroll: $2732.02

[Jeff_Black]

Dimi in beast mode right now, good hit.

Thanks. I can't fault Dimitrov much so far apart from that first set against Chung.

[gorwin068]

Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -3.5 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle (+$127.62)

YTD: 55-46-6 (+$775.11)
Bankroll: $2732.02

Good call bro, any thought on Nadal vs Ranoic match?
I am leaning on Nadal...

[Jeff_Black]

Just popped in to post that exact thing 😁

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, QF
Rafael Nadal vs Milos Raonic
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: $136.60 for a profit of $125.26

[Jeff_Black]

Another one where I was preferring Raonic but I think the old dog will get one more win against the young pup. Been happy enough with Nadals form and the roof won't be closed this time around which will benefit Nadal in the cool conditions

[gorwin068]

Another one where I was preferring Raonic but I think the old dog will get one more win against the young pup. Been happy enough with Nadals form and the roof won't be closed this time around which will benefit Nadal in the cool conditions

Jeff, would you be able to explain more about cool conditions with/without roof? As well as faster or slower court with/without the roof? And Indoor or outdoor?

I heard this kind of thing before too, but i am not sure about the relationship between them. What kind of players would prefer which ones?

I would know some kind of players are more favourable on certain court surface, but I am not really sure about the importance of having the roof or not, fast/slow court, indoor/outdoor
Thanks

[gorwin068]

Just popped in to post that exact thing 

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, QF
Rafael Nadal vs Milos Raonic
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: $136.60 for a profit of $125.26

Game Set Match, Nadal won 3-0, job done.
The last two points were ridiculous, proving Rafa is back !!!

[Jeff_Black]

Jeff, would you be able to explain more about cool conditions with/without roof? As well as faster or slower court with/without the roof? And Indoor or outdoor?

I heard this kind of thing before too, but i am not sure about the relationship between them. What kind of players would prefer which ones?

I would know some kind of players are more favourable on certain court surface, but I am not really sure about the importance of having the roof or not, fast/slow court, indoor/outdoor
Thanks

Certainly!

The roof aspect of things is quite simple. An indoor surface or effectively an outdoor surface with a closed roof basically nullifies any outdoor aspects such as wind, weather, air density, the sun (heat) and sometimes until it is deemed too dangerous, rain. The indoor conditions allow for faster play in a tennis court which favour the players with aggressive games who like to finish off games quickly.
For example the game the other day between Raonic and Bautista (like most Spaniard players who don't mind hitting the ball around and rallying) with an open roof and allowing for conditions allow him to dictate play and hang at the baseline to construct points. When the points end quicker, they favour Raonic who likes to come in to the net and volley and hit his forehand winners. Thus most people who watched the game noted that it changed in Raonic's favour when the roof closed, to a lesser extent similarly in the Wimbledon final to Federer's extent.


I think in some cases it comes down to players being able to take advantage of the conditions. For example when Murray and Djokovic play their Australian open finals in the cooler weather when it is slower it favours Djokovic. It's a crazy thing to say because both players have similar games but alternatively Djokovic basically has Murray on a string like he is a puppet because he is allowed to do whatever he wants being able to construct his points whereas Murray is happy to wait for Djokovic to make errors or have a lapse in concentration.
When Djokovic shrinks the court in those finals Murray is basically a dead man because Djokovic knows where he is going to hit it or he can force Murray to hit a bad shot from it.
If it is faster such as Wimbledon is favours Murray because Djokovic has less time firstly react to both Murray's first and second serves and secondly construct points and do whatever he wants in rallies because the points are shorter and on grass Murray is able to work the angles like he did in the 2013 final to force an error.
Or the us open final where it was windy AF, and you simply can't make the same shots you do on a non windy day because it will result in more errors.
IMO Murray shouldn't let slower conditions be an advantage to or allow Djokovic to dictate play but because he plays like such a retard in those instances it's why he's lost five finals against him there.


In opposite an outdoor court allows all the weather conditions to affect the play.

In some cases the wind at times affects the ball toss which can make it difficult for rhythm. Think to the 2012 US open where there was some ridiculous wind and from what I've seen to an extent the design of Arthur Ashe Stadium as more open compared to say Rod Laver Area or the Centre Court of Wimbledon which allows for more weather factors because of its 'openness' compared to RLA or Wimbledons centre court which are more closed and easier to build a roof on which they have now.


Rain will normally not affect the court long term that much because the umpires will suspend play and catch on pretty quickly, sometimes you get the odd point where a player loses their footing because of the moisture on the ground causing some sliding but usually safety precautions take place.
On clay though it can be a bit different because a bit rain as we've seen in the past won't affect play. The umpire will allow play because it's not hardcourts and players slide, Unless it is heavy enough to deem dangerous and stop play.


Think the French Open.
Think Nadal and Djokovic's 2012 French open final when rain affected the outcome of the match and Djokovic was able to get back into it. And I'll explain why...


Nadal plays a game which basically states straight up "I am better than anyone at hitting balls into positions where you can't attack me without taking huge risks, and I can do it longer than anyone". Watch the angle that his balls bounce as they cross the baseline. He gets them jumping up near vertical. So a normal player (on clay) has to take huge risks because they know they can't compete with his game. Players that don't have an alternate game (Ferrer) just get chopped. So for Nadal this will work against, effectively, nearly everyone bar Novak.


When the rain came in on that day during the game, Novak completely changed his shot selection (helped a little by the conditions) to the sort of game he plays on hard court. Effectively he's trying to open the court up on nearly every shot even if it means being exposed
The reason why it's so effective is because the ball is bouncing lower now so when Nadal tries to take advantage and 'rip' the ball away the spin just doesn't have the same effect. So Novak feels safer hitting the ball to open up the court because he knows he can't be hurt.
With a bit of momentum Novak was able to hit the ball better. But that's not the big reason there is a difference. He's getting his body behind the ball so that he can use the ground reactive force in his legs to get the extra power. And he knows he can do it because Nadal can't take him out of court as much, so he's willing to do the extra running


Djokovic usually wants to take those risks because it opens the court up and he's fast enough to get to Nadal's response. On a dry clay court though Djokovic's flat attacking balls get held up and then the spin from Nadal just puts the ball way too far out of court for it to be a winning strategy (most of the time).
As the court gets wet, Djokovic's flat attacking shots still get held up, but Nadal's response isn't as devastating because a wet ball doesn't bounce the same. So now Djokovic is willing to take the risk because he knows he can get back across the court and in doing so he's opened up the whole court for both players which is where he is significantly better than Nadal.
And Nadal knows it too. You could see how pissed off he is. It's exactly the same as the Wimbledon final the year before. And it's why the media made a big deal about him wanting to suspend play. Effectively Novak uses aggressive movement, aggressive shot selection. And he's got enough speed and endurance to do it for long periods of time. Nadal knows and he hates it heh.
Now let's look at the last factor, air conditions (humidity/density)
And again I will quote an example where this happens, the us open 2013 final...
The temperature cooled to below 20C over the next couple of hours, before the match started which suited Nadal much more. Relative humidity got close to 80%, this slowed the balls down and made it harder for Novak to hit winners.
High relative humidity greatly affects ball speed, which played against Novak more. Nadal got a lot of balls back in this match, due to the ball 'hang time'.
As a result, due to the high relative humidity slowing the ball down, Novak just couldn't hit enough winners through the thicker air which forced a lot of UEs.
Obviously it's impossible to put the pieces with every player, because each player is different with their styles on play, it's why, for example, some players suck on clay and others don't regardless of the conditions. The best way to get a gauge of it is watching, watching and more watching of game tape!
There are sites out there that explain the formulas behind the reasoning but this is more of a brief and unnecessarily poorly explained shortened version covering the very basics ��

[gorwin068]

Certainly!

The roof aspect of things is quite simple. An indoor surface or effectively an outdoor surface with a closed roof basically nullifies any outdoor aspects such as wind, weather, air density, the sun (heat) and sometimes until it is deemed too dangerous, rain. The indoor conditions allow for faster play in a tennis court which favour the players with aggressive games who like to finish off games quickly.
For example the game the other day between Raonic and Bautista (like most Spaniard players who don't mind hitting the ball around and rallying) with an open roof and allowing for conditions allow him to dictate play and hang at the baseline to construct points. When the points end quicker, they favour Raonic who likes to come in to the net and volley and hit his forehand winners. Thus most people who watched the game noted that it changed in Raonic's favour when the roof closed, to a lesser extent similarly in the Wimbledon final to Federer's extent.


I think in some cases it comes down to players being able to take advantage of the conditions. For example when Murray and Djokovic play their Australian open finals in the cooler weather when it is slower it favours Djokovic. It's a crazy thing to say because both players have similar games but alternatively Djokovic basically has Murray on a string like he is a puppet because he is allowed to do whatever he wants being able to construct his points whereas Murray is happy to wait for Djokovic to make errors or have a lapse in concentration.
When Djokovic shrinks the court in those finals Murray is basically a dead man because Djokovic knows where he is going to hit it or he can force Murray to hit a bad shot from it.
If it is faster such as Wimbledon is favours Murray because Djokovic has less time firstly react to both Murray's first and second serves and secondly construct points and do whatever he wants in rallies because the points are shorter and on grass Murray is able to work the angles like he did in the 2013 final to force an error.
Or the us open final where it was windy AF, and you simply can't make the same shots you do on a non windy day because it will result in more errors.
IMO Murray shouldn't let slower conditions be an advantage to or allow Djokovic to dictate play but because he plays like such a retard in those instances it's why he's lost five finals against him there.


In opposite an outdoor court allows all the weather conditions to affect the play.

In some cases the wind at times affects the ball toss which can make it difficult for rhythm. Think to the 2012 US open where there was some ridiculous wind and from what I've seen to an extent the design of Arthur Ashe Stadium as more open compared to say Rod Laver Area or the Centre Court of Wimbledon which allows for more weather factors because of its 'openness' compared to RLA or Wimbledons centre court which are more closed and easier to build a roof on which they have now.


Rain will normally not affect the court long term that much because the umpires will suspend play and catch on pretty quickly, sometimes you get the odd point where a player loses their footing because of the moisture on the ground causing some sliding but usually safety precautions take place.
On clay though it can be a bit different because a bit rain as we've seen in the past won't affect play. The umpire will allow play because it's not hardcourts and players slide, Unless it is heavy enough to deem dangerous and stop play.


Think the French Open.
Think Nadal and Djokovic's 2012 French open final when rain affected the outcome of the match and Djokovic was able to get back into it. And I'll explain why...


Nadal plays a game which basically states straight up "I am better than anyone at hitting balls into positions where you can't attack me without taking huge risks, and I can do it longer than anyone". Watch the angle that his balls bounce as they cross the baseline. He gets them jumping up near vertical. So a normal player (on clay) has to take huge risks because they know they can't compete with his game. Players that don't have an alternate game (Ferrer) just get chopped. So for Nadal this will work against, effectively, nearly everyone bar Novak.


When the rain came in on that day during the game, Novak completely changed his shot selection (helped a little by the conditions) to the sort of game he plays on hard court. Effectively he's trying to open the court up on nearly every shot even if it means being exposed
The reason why it's so effective is because the ball is bouncing lower now so when Nadal tries to take advantage and 'rip' the ball away the spin just doesn't have the same effect. So Novak feels safer hitting the ball to open up the court because he knows he can't be hurt.
With a bit of momentum Novak was able to hit the ball better. But that's not the big reason there is a difference. He's getting his body behind the ball so that he can use the ground reactive force in his legs to get the extra power. And he knows he can do it because Nadal can't take him out of court as much, so he's willing to do the extra running


Djokovic usually wants to take those risks because it opens the court up and he's fast enough to get to Nadal's response. On a dry clay court though Djokovic's flat attacking balls get held up and then the spin from Nadal just puts the ball way too far out of court for it to be a winning strategy (most of the time).
As the court gets wet, Djokovic's flat attacking shots still get held up, but Nadal's response isn't as devastating because a wet ball doesn't bounce the same. So now Djokovic is willing to take the risk because he knows he can get back across the court and in doing so he's opened up the whole court for both players which is where he is significantly better than Nadal.
And Nadal knows it too. You could see how pissed off he is. It's exactly the same as the Wimbledon final the year before. And it's why the media made a big deal about him wanting to suspend play. Effectively Novak uses aggressive movement, aggressive shot selection. And he's got enough speed and endurance to do it for long periods of time. Nadal knows and he hates it heh.
Now let's look at the last factor, air conditions (humidity/density)
And again I will quote an example where this happens, the us open 2013 final...
The temperature cooled to below 20C over the next couple of hours, before the match started which suited Nadal much more. Relative humidity got close to 80%, this slowed the balls down and made it harder for Novak to hit winners.
High relative humidity greatly affects ball speed, which played against Novak more. Nadal got a lot of balls back in this match, due to the ball 'hang time'.
As a result, due to the high relative humidity slowing the ball down, Novak just couldn't hit enough winners through the thicker air which forced a lot of UEs.
Obviously it's impossible to put the pieces with every player, because each player is different with their styles on play, it's why, for example, some players suck on clay and others don't regardless of the conditions. The best way to get a gauge of it is watching, watching and more watching of game tape!
There are sites out there that explain the formulas behind the reasoning but this is more of a brief and unnecessarily poorly explained shortened version covering the very basics ��

Thank you so so much for the detailed information.
I will definitely save it.

[Lightning]

'Unncessarily poor explanation'

I know tennis and even I got a kick out of reading that haha.

[laker5]

'Unncessarily poor explanation'

I know tennis and even I got a kick out of reading that haha.

Douche much?

[Jeff_Black]

'Unncessarily poor explanation'

I know tennis and even I got a kick out of reading that haha.

Mainly because it was so brief and by the time I realised how long it was and how little I covered I thought to myself 'ah bugger' haha

As I posted originally there is a lot of maths explaining the 'physics' part that I could devote another whole post to but that was long enough haha.

Like most people watching the games and learning a thing or two off others, know several people who used to coach tennis who used to explain certain things to me when I was younger and still to this day the finer technical aspects so I definately don't know it all haha. And still want to keep learning as much as I can otherwise I'll never improve.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Rafael Nadal -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$125.26)

YTD: 56-46-6 (+$900.37)
Bankroll: $2857.28

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, SF
Roger Federer vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Roger Federer -3.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $142.86 for a profit of $132.45

[gorwin068]

Handicap: Rafael Nadal -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$125.26)

YTD: 56-46-6 (+$900.37)
Bankroll: $2857.28

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, SF
Roger Federer vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Roger Federer -3.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $142.86 for a profit of $132.45

Roger

[gorwin068]

Handicap: Rafael Nadal -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$125.26)

YTD: 56-46-6 (+$900.37)
Bankroll: $2857.28

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, SF
Roger Federer vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Roger Federer -3.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $142.86 for a profit of $132.45

Unlucky man, although Roger did win the match in 5 sets.
I just went for ML directly instead.

[laker5]

'Unncessarily poor explanation'

I know tennis and even I got a kick out of reading that haha.

My bad, apologies Lightning

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Roger Federer -3.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle (-$142.86)

YTD: 56-47-6 (+$757.51)
Bankroll: $2714.42

Australian Open 2000, Men's Singles, SF
Grigor Dimitrov vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov +4.5 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle
Stake: $135.72 for a profit of $113.06