Aus Open WTA leans

[frugalgambler]

Here we go. Serena was only -185 after the first set. My prediction 6-2 6-1.

[frugalgambler]

Awesome tennis.

[frugalgambler]

Probably the best WTA match I have ever seen. The funny part is that Misaki Doi can say she was a point away from winning a GS.

NB If these two are not juicing than I do not know who does.

[frugalgambler]

BTW, I have not seen a single thread with a Kerber ML in it. Well, except my thread as a hedge on Serena's futures.

Even in the usual jjgold's junk thread nobody was bold enough to airbet it. (apologies if I missed it.) Good call by MGT on the Kerber +6 lean.

[xdodger19]

Would you agree the last three players Serena played were 2,3, and 4

[frugalgambler]

Not necessarily in that order. Aza can also take all those players. Just on that given day Kerber was stronger than Aza, and then in that given final stronger than Serena. Not an easy feat, but I do not think this will be the case the whole season.

Some notes: Aza still does not have a decent serve, and probably never will; Maria looks pretty determined, she might have a good clay season, but still cannot play Serena; other players that impressed me: Friedsam, Beck. Looks like ze Germans are coming ! You guys liked anybody else in particular ?

Anyway, this was fun. Let's throw the final dart:

Becker-Mauresmo 3-1 0.5u @+250.

[kenz]

Beck is horrible generally, no serve short height nothing spectacular. Did not watch her this week tho

[frugalgambler]

Beck is horrible generally, no serve short height nothing spectacular. Did not watch her this week tho

I thought her level in the first set vs Kerber was almost as good as anything I've seen this week. Then she got bageled in the 2nd set, I think.

[frugalgambler]

-2.5u on the last three days. Watched too much tennis over the past two weeks or so. Did not even watch the men's final, disappointed Murray could not even take a set.

Finished +2.3u on the day-to-day leans and +2.5u on Serena futures. Not bad, but could've been better. Kinda confirms what I already knew about my betting patterns: late stages at GSs are not good for me, ATP is not that good either. Futures are good though, especially if you can find a good price, but it is better to wait till the draw comes out. I lost a little on Agga to reach the final at +600, only to find her in the semis vs Serena @-700. A-Rad to win her quarter was +250. And I gotta be even a little more selective. With fewer lines over last 4-5 days, I am too tempted to hit every match. Props to reedy for being selective.

Anyway, this was fun. I might do the same for RG, time permitting. Probably won't start following/betting WTA anyways until the big clay-court tournaments. One exception could be the Fed Cup matches next week-end. E.g. I think Sharapova might go medieval on somebody like Kiki Bertens. Let's see the lines first.

[frugalgambler]

Btw, Novak is -115 to win RG; he was +100 just a few days ago. But I am still strongly considering that line. I think this might be the year. This is the one he really needs. Dunno though, might wait a little while to see what happens at the start of clay.

[Jeff_Black]

Will have to watch some matches from Nadal on clay to see where he's at. Probably too early to say. I don't (surely) think the line will get any lower, that said if Djokovic starts like he did in 2011...
Like you but, I agree that this year is his year.

[frugalgambler]

My Novak line is -125 now, not nearly as attractive.

[Conqueror]

My Novak line is -125 now, not nearly as attractive.

Yes. But now that the "former" king of clay, Nadal, is past his prime it's hard to imagine Djokovic not winning Roland Garros. I think the line is good, IMHO.

[frugalgambler]

I just don't want to pay extra juice at 5d, when I see a better price at non-US books. Still quite a few weeks left till RG, lots can change and injuries happen; if Novak gets a tough draw with e.g. Nadal @QF & Wawa @SF that would also affect things. I do not like -125 right now.