scout's honor

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  • girlscoutcookies
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-19-14
    • 765

    #386
    lorenzi +244
    groth +105
    berrer/delpotro/darcis +426
    Comment
    • girlscoutcookies
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-19-14
      • 765

      #387
      coric/haider-maurer over 22 +117
      Comment
      • girlscoutcookies
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 12-19-14
        • 765

        #388
        haase/mannarino +175
        donald +5.5 +119
        gulbis +133
        duckworth +244
        Comment
        • Dmoneytx
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-09-12
          • 6450

          #389
          What's up GS??! Wow man, I was a total sucker too today & took goofy dumb fuk retard Haase as well in a small parlay. Thank god I didn't do anything big on him. He is such a flake fing loser man. Bageled third set? Wow. What a pos. Lol...

          Hope all is well man. I'll try to be back soon. Laters..
          Comment
          • brodie
            SBR MVP
            • 11-25-13
            • 2212

            #390
            lmao fking dmoney. never fails to put a smile on my face
            Comment
            • Joenaes
              SBR Hustler
              • 02-25-15
              • 86

              #391
              You are being missed man, whats up?!
              Comment
              • girlscoutcookies
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-19-14
                • 765

                #392
                Originally posted by Joenaes
                You are being missed man, whats up?!
                been busy with real life , had to take break ill be making some bets this week
                Comment
                • fitguy67
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-13-11
                  • 5082

                  #393
                  the next time the urge to face those real-life concerns head on (you know...to the detriment of your gambling responsibilities) we trust you won't make the same mistake again...

                  glad you'll be firing up the old live-dog sniffing unit again, scout...single best thread around here for plus-sign loving degens

                  ______________
                  fellow variance-hating super-chickens might want to consider betting all the dogs in this thread TO WIN (not risk) 1 measly unit as I do...so the bigger the dog, the cheaper is the ticket...much lower drawdowns when the dogs slump as they must inevitably do...so not as euphoric (but just as profitable) when they rally (equally inevitably)...and make suffering thru the preceding slump all worthwhile

                  i find that "losing in fractions/winning in ones" is gentler on the roll and the blood pressure than
                  "losing in ones/winning in multiples"...a pussy way to size your bets i suppose, but thot' i'd throw it out there for discussion since i haven't posted anything in a while to earn my betpoints...

                  whether to risk 1u as posted (or to win 1u as I suggest) on each play is not so important as that you pick one and stick with it consistently...i agree whole-heartedly with scout that flat-sizing + patience is the surest way to live long and prosper
                  ________
                  ok, done with the egghead stuff...start postin' some fukkin' winnazz for us, scout...or we'll withhold our subscription fees!
                  Comment
                  • girlscoutcookies
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-19-14
                    • 765

                    #394
                    ouahab +113
                    klizan/almagro under 21.5 +100
                    Comment
                    • fitguy67
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-13-11
                      • 5082

                      #395
                      pouille +338 (over Thiem on Monday at Monte Carlo) triggers my "spidey sense"...

                      just can't see Pouille having a less than 23% chance to win here in this first meeting of two impressive young players (Thiem obviously moreso at this point)

                      but i haven't fully factored in the potential "frenchiosity" of the situation, as Pouille hasn't struck me yet as being very high on the Monfils-Chardy "Walmart Tent" scale

                      also my tennis "spidey sense" on its very best day tends to be dreadfully unreliable
                      Comment
                      • SirtySree
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-19-13
                        • 2370

                        #396
                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                        pouille +338 (over Thiem on Monday at Monte Carlo) triggers my "spidey sense"...

                        just can't see Pouille having a less than 23% chance to win here in this first meeting of two impressive young players (Thiem obviously moreso at this point)

                        but i haven't fully factored in the potential "frenchiosity" of the situation, as Pouille hasn't struck me yet as being very high on the Monfils-Chardy "Walmart Tent" scale

                        also my tennis "spidey sense" on its very best day tends to be dreadfully unreliable
                        I think Pouille is too reliant on his serve at the moment and has too many games where he has a lack of concentration or misses his 1st serve and gets broken. Thiem on the other hand has a game which I think makes him adaptable to all surfaces but clay would be his best surface as he likes to return far behind the baseline, which is something that will also nullify Pouille's serve especially on this slow surface.

                        I think Thiem wins here 3 out of 4 times so minimal value there. Pouille would need to serve well and then still need Thiem to have a bad day.
                        Comment
                        • Hardcoar
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-17-13
                          • 15606

                          #397
                          I agree. Those odds are about fair to me as well.

                          Had Theme-Park not been playing so ridiculously well in Miami (my mami) I would likely have shared your opinion, Fit.
                          Comment
                          • Dmoneytx
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-09-12
                            • 6450

                            #398
                            Originally posted by fitguy67
                            , as Pouille hasn't struck me yet as being very high on the Monfils-Chardy "Walmart Tent" scale
                            Lmfao!!!!! That was hilarious Fit
                            Comment
                            • fitguy67
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-13-11
                              • 5082

                              #399
                              yeah, key word i was careful to include there is "yet"...

                              there's gotta be a gene that separates the Spaniards from the Frenchmen that makes the former much more reliable for betting on as similarly-priced favorites...

                              who'd you rather bet on as a -150...RBA or ERV?
                              Comment
                              • girlscoutcookies
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-19-14
                                • 765

                                #400
                                stakh +3.5 -107
                                jerzy +160
                                kukushkin +282
                                Comment
                                • Dmoneytx
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-09-12
                                  • 6450

                                  #401
                                  What up GS???!!! I got some Oregon stinky stanky smelly super good last night I hope you are doing well! Good luck on the plays man. Damn, I was gonna take Stak last night, but that guy just makes me mad looking at him, so I laid off. Good call there man. Gotta run, have a good day brother!
                                  Comment
                                  • beefcake
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-26-09
                                    • 14029

                                    #402
                                    Hey smoke up buddy!!
                                    Comment
                                    • girlscoutcookies
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-19-14
                                      • 765

                                      #403
                                      Originally posted by Dmoneytx
                                      What up GS???!!! I got some Oregon stinky stanky smelly super good last night I hope you are doing well! Good luck on the plays man. Damn, I was gonna take Stak last night, but that guy just makes me mad looking at him, so I laid off. Good call there man. Gotta run, have a good day brother!
                                      thanks bud. everything cool over here. gonna make money this week, i guarantee it lol
                                      heading to the dispensary myself today..very excited lol
                                      Comment
                                      • fitguy67
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-13-11
                                        • 5082

                                        #404
                                        Originally posted by girlscoutcookies
                                        ...gonna make money this week, i guarantee it lol
                                        gotta love a guarantee like that, especially when it's backed by that absolutely unconditional full (and instantaneous) refund of all subscription fees!

                                        kohl at plus money over RBA tomorrow?
                                        Comment
                                        • girlscoutcookies
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 12-19-14
                                          • 765

                                          #405
                                          ramos +1.5 sets +558
                                          chardy -1.5 sets +149
                                          klizan +1.5 -111
                                          vesely +213
                                          kuznetsov 1st set +253
                                          Comment
                                          • Honeybadger44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-03-14
                                            • 1675

                                            #406
                                            Like your picks for today (and this thread in general). Definitely going to tail you on this Kuznetsov 1st set play. It should be the smartest way to go in that match. Good luck!
                                            Comment
                                            • girlscoutcookies
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-19-14
                                              • 765

                                              #407
                                              Originally posted by fitguy67
                                              pouille +338 (over Thiem on Monday at Monte Carlo) triggers my "spidey sense"...
                                              nice call fitguy
                                              Comment
                                              • girlscoutcookies
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 12-19-14
                                                • 765

                                                #408
                                                granollers +289
                                                granollers +1.5 sets +115
                                                agut -3 +114
                                                agut + feds 2-0 +154
                                                paire/simon under 21.5 -111
                                                Comment
                                                • girlscoutcookies
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 12-19-14
                                                  • 765

                                                  #409
                                                  dimitrov +184

                                                  Comment
                                                  • fitguy67
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 03-13-11
                                                    • 5082

                                                    #410
                                                    simon +484 worth a shot against ferrer imo

                                                    it's easy for me to take dumbass shots like this cuz my shots on big dogs are chicken-liver sized (based on "to win" rather than having to stake a whole unit)...

                                                    so for me, it's just 0.2066u to win 1u

                                                    thanks for the nice hit on dimi
                                                    Comment
                                                    • girlscoutcookies
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 12-19-14
                                                      • 765

                                                      #411
                                                      Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                      simon +484 worth a shot against ferrer imo

                                                      it's easy for me to take dumbass shots like this cuz my shots on big dogs are chicken-liver sized (based on "to win" rather than having to stake a whole unit)...

                                                      so for me, it's just 0.2066u to win 1u

                                                      thanks for the nice hit on dimi
                                                      had simon against ferrer couple weeks ago. putting ice picks through my testes would have been more enjoyable.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082

                                                        #412
                                                        Originally posted by girlscoutcookies
                                                        had simon against ferrer couple weeks ago. putting ice picks through my testes would have been more enjoyable.
                                                        i'll add that one to my "witty painful-genitalia metaphors useful in a gambling context" file, along with EP's "i'd rather put my dick in a pencil sharpener" line (probably about betting on a Chardy-match)...

                                                        problem with dogs playing well enough to force a deciding set in tennis, i find, is exactly analogous to a dog in college hoops getting into overtime against a heavily-favored opponent...seems they're satisfied with the consolation "victory" of surprising most with a better than expected/creditable performance... and very often fold with little resistance at the business end of the contest

                                                        funny how these tennis dogs will fight like hell (full of pride-driven tenacity) to not get straight-setted...then, once that's done, seem to be quite ok with/almost welcoming of the loss (often of the bagelled/breadsticked variety)...

                                                        take-home lesson: next time I think "simon at plus-odds" instantly visualize "ice picks" and "pencil-sharpeners"...Anderson's exactly the same way, for example...these two guys (and many others) may be consistent can-crushers but always seem to fall short of turning any surprise good-showing into an actual "W"...the big odds on them are often enticing, but we gotta remember these guys will often tease but very seldom actually deliver...(now i understand why you use the +1.5sets bet so often)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SCI
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 12-09-05
                                                          • 423

                                                          #413
                                                          Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                          i'll add that one to my "witty painful-genitalia metaphors useful in a gambling context" file, along with EP's "i'd rather put my dick in a pencil sharpener" line (probably about betting on a Chardy-match)...

                                                          problem with dogs playing well enough to force a deciding set in tennis, i find, is exactly analogous to a dog in college hoops getting into overtime against a heavily-favored opponent...seems they're satisfied with the consolation "victory" of surprising most with a creditable performance... and very often fold with little resistance at the business end of the contest

                                                          funny how these tennis dogs will fight like hell to not get straight-setted...then, once that's done, seem to be quite ok with/almost welcoming of the loss (often of the bagelled/breadsticked variety)...

                                                          take-home lesson: next time I think "simon at plus-odds" instantly visualize "ice picks" and "pencil-sharpeners"
                                                          I understand where your coming from, but Ferrer makes you work for everything. It eventually takes it's toll, especially against someone similiar in playing style. It took all of what Simon had to win that 2nd set breaker. He had little left physically for the 3rd set. It had little to do with accepting defeat. Guys like Nadal and Ferrer have been wearing/grinding players down for years now. That's how they make a living.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fitguy67
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-13-11
                                                            • 5082

                                                            #414
                                                            ur right, it is what's known as "embracing the grind" in combat sports...long known that good skill + outstanding physical-stamina/mental-tenacity usually prevail over outstanding skill + good physical-stamina/mental-tenacity...

                                                            spanish players, in general, whatever their level of skill are seldom weak in this tenacity department...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • girlscoutcookies
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-19-14
                                                              • 765

                                                              #415
                                                              you get the perfect storm of frustration watching & backing simon vs ferrer cuz of all the pushing back n forth.
                                                              gilou gives a glimmer of hope too cuz he'll break ferrer a bunch of times, but he just refuses to hold serve. plus he's french. it's just very sad and not fun.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • girlscoutcookies
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-19-14
                                                                • 765

                                                                #416
                                                                raonic 1st set +140
                                                                dimitrov/monfils under 23 -104
                                                                cilic +1.5 sets +339
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dmoneytx
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-09-12
                                                                  • 6450

                                                                  #417
                                                                  Nice to see you get the bailout on first set Raonic there GS!! Lol, that sucked bec I had $350 on Berdych ML, arg!!! Sucks giraffe couldn't struggle one more game and then quit, oh well.. At least I put 150 on Monfils ML, had to jump on +100 bec I thought he might actually be the small fav with that win against Fed yesterday. I just got up, wow Dimitrov must of shit the bed hard this morning huh??? Lol, oh well have a good day man, I'll hit ya up later..
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • fitguy67
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 03-13-11
                                                                    • 5082

                                                                    #418
                                                                    nvm
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • girlscoutcookies
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-19-14
                                                                      • 765

                                                                      #419
                                                                      nice monfils hit d$.

                                                                      another break even night, blah. not sure why i keep betting novak to lose a set.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Ralphalph
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 07-10-13
                                                                        • 186

                                                                        #420
                                                                        Nice picks, girlscout... It was a wash for me today as well. I took Cilic +6 and Monfil +1.5 Anywho, tonight I think Djokovic loses. He's been playing marshmellows this whole tournament. He won't cover -3 against Nadal. I also like the bird tonight moneyline. Got any thoughts? GL!
                                                                        Comment
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