EP36's Racquet Abuse

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-15, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by oldscho0led

EP, what do you think about the Wawa-Nishi game? Everyone on the over. I'm kinda leaning under right now and you can get good value on Tiebreak - NO. Thoughts?

Yeah I have noticed everyone on the over, thought about the under harder myself. Not sure if I am going to play anything else other than the futures position I have on Wawrinka and a smaller hedge on Nishikori.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-15, 10:46 PM

Think I am gonna see how the 1st set goes and maybe dive into that match in-play. Have a tough time reading it until I can see if Stan has any issues with his elbow.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-15, 11:12 PM

Money back on the dubs total. Retirement after one set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-15, 11:28 PM

Hedge spot coming up if Wawrinka closes out this first set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-15, 11:41 PM

After Set #1 [HEDGE ON FUTURES PLAY]
Nishikori +145 *Risking 0.3 unit

**oldscho0led** · 01-28-15, 12:06 AM

Elbow injury just a front so public will be all over Nishi.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 12:07 AM

Maybe. Future looking good right now with only a minimal give back on the hedge if this holds. Stan looks awesome.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 12:25 AM

Stan needs to keep his foot on the gas and not go into GGL mode like last round after going up 2-0. Don't think he'll make that mistake here.

**Conqueror** · 01-28-15, 12:29 AM

A Stan meltdown won't surprise me a bit. It's sports. It's tennis.

**oldscho0led** · 01-28-15, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

A Stan meltdown won't surprise me a bit. It's sports. It's tennis.

Stan might give up a set but not a meltdown. Stan looks locked in right now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 12:40 AM

Kei had a chance in this set early, but he yacked it back up. Stan needs to finish this in 3, save himself for the semis where he's gonna need himself at full power.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Adding...
ATP: Wawrinka to Win Quarter @ +110

I think a tremendous price considering Nishikori and Ferrer should wear each other down today and if Wawrinka plays clean against GGL and wins fairly straight forward, he could pick over the remains. I know GGL beat Stan at the French, but this is a much better surface for Stan and hopefully he has a long memory for revenge.

Pretty much the set-up you would have expected from when the draws came out. Surprised he is still + money in this situation and not a slight favorite at least. Nishikori obviously would be the tougher match-up, but the line for a QF there probably is about a pick em or Stan the small fave depending on what happens today. If Ferrer pulls the upset, you for sure get the chance to hedge if you want on Ferrer at + money against Stan.

Finally did something correct.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 01:44 AM

AusOpen: -7.64
2015 Profit Margin: -4.05
2015 Futures: +0.05

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 10:35 AM

1.28.15
Bucaramanga Challenger: Hernandez-Melzer Over/Ends in 3 Sets
Kooky ol Intertops hS been posting some Challenger matches LIVE even though they don't put them up prematch. Noticed. This one is on the calendar. Have to wait for the LIVE platform to open. But Over or ends in 3 sets might be a play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 11:08 AM

Ends in 3 +120

**poet** · 01-28-15, 01:26 PM

I hear it might be windy at the Open today, EP. You know who that favors.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 02:18 PM

Murray I think for his match maybe. It would be identical to their 2012 USO match then. I recall Berdych struggling lots with his ball toss in windy conditions. I wouldn't bank on it being the vital difference as I think both played in some wind this week, just that really sticks out in my mind from back then.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 02:28 PM

Maui Challenger: Jenkins-Ehrat Under
Same thing. Waiting for it to go LIVE @3pm ET. Hoping for 18.5, but not sure it will be that high. Will post if played.

**poet** · 01-28-15, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Murray I think for his match maybe. It would be identical to their 2012 USO match then. I recall Berdych struggling lots with his ball toss in windy conditions. I wouldn't bank on it being the vital difference as I think both played in some wind this week, just that really sticks out in my mind from back then.

Yup:

"Andy Murray, Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova are all in action today in Melbourne, where it’s set to be windy once again, which could affect bets involving Sharapova and Tomas Berdych to name just two.

Berdych and Murray face off for the 11th time in their careers and while it’s set to be windy it shouldn’t be anything like as bad as the hurricane level winds that wrecked their US Open semi final of 2012.

Hopefully, for the sake of the players and all of us watching, it won’t be ruined by the wind, but Rod Laver Arena offers better protection from it than the cavernous Arthur Ashe Stadium, so it shouldn’t be too much of a factor with any luck.

That said, Murray would have a clear advantage if it did get windy, such is the adaptability in the Scot’s game compared with the more mechanical Czech and Murray’s form so far this fortnight has made him probably a deserved, if narrow favourite."

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 03:19 PM

Maui Under 20.5 @ -130

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 03:50 PM

Damn. Ehrat Rollin JJ. Have to hope it holds to get this under.

**beefcake** · 01-28-15, 04:23 PM

Wow, Ehrat ranked like 850...

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 04:32 PM

Under hit. He flat smoked him. Looking at Bangoura-Kozlov next. Ends in 3 or might go a side. Waiting for options.

**SirtySree** · 01-28-15, 04:36 PM

Everyone's been struggling in Maui. Been taking most players 2 sets to get use to the new balls and bounce. The favourites have been coming out on top if they manage to push it to a 3rd set.

Ehrat is an underrated player regardless though and that line was off by quite a bit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 04:52 PM

Ends in 3 +175 for the Kozlov match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 05:14 PM

Day 11: AusOpen
ATP Doubles: Dodig/Melo-Herbert/Mahut Over
As per usual, waiting for the LIVE option. Probably 22.5.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 07:05 PM

Pretty high, but still like. Dubs booked at Over 24.5 @ -111

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 08:36 PM

Add...
WTA: Sharapova-Makarova Under 20.5 @ -130

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 10:18 PM

Hong Kong Challenger: Matsui @ +115

**Conqueror** · 01-28-15, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Hong Kong Challenger: Matsui @ +115

EP,
Why do you like Matsui in this matchup?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 11:06 PM

Wow. Look what some loser POS gambler put on Jarmere Jenkins twitter today

https://twitter.com/JarmereJenkins

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by Conqueror

EP,
Why do you like Matsui in this matchup?

Gut.

**SirtySree** · 01-28-15, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Wow. Look what some loser POS gambler put on Jarmere Jenkins twitter today
https://twitter.com/JarmereJenkins

Too funny. He also had another screenshot below that where like 4 ppl msged him hate mail on facebook.

If you take out all of Jenkins matches that he plays in Aussie, that Ehrat kid has a better career despite the ranking. Plus he almost took down Berrer late last year and Authom who was on like a winning streak of 5 tournaments in a row.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-28-15, 11:46 PM

Anyone who is betting large chalk on a Challenger shouldn't put their hate on the player, they should do themselves a favor and bash their heads into a wall.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-29-15, 01:31 AM

Add...
ATP: Berdych @ +125