ITT I Bet Air

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 07:17 AM

Zahlavova Strycova to defeat Broady (1.61) - 4 units (WTA Birmingham)

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 09:48 AM

De Schepper to defeat Devvarman (1.53) - 1 unit (ATP Queens)

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 01:59 PM

Kubot to defeat Falla (2.00) - 1 unit (ATP Halle
Lepchenko to defeat Van Uytvanck (1.57) - 2 units (WTA Birmingham)

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 04:08 PM

Przysiezny to defeat Gojowczyk (2.10) - 4 units (ATP Halle)

**Marillion** · 06-09-14, 01:45 AM

Herbert - Janowicz over 22.5 games (1.90) - 2 units (ATP Queens)
Carballes Baena to defeat Zhang (1.44) - 4 units (Challenger Prague)
Brown to defeat Andr. Kuznetsov (1.80) - 2 units (ATP Halle)

**Marillion** · 06-09-14, 01:52 AM

(voleyball) Serbia -1.5 sets against Bulgaria (1.90) - 2 units loss
Miyamura to defeat Gajdosova (8.00) - 0.5 units (ITF Women Nottingham Qual) loss

Wins-Losses-Void
350-258-23

total units risked - 1102.5

YTD
+45.38 units

ROI
4.17%

**Marillion** · 06-09-14, 03:33 AM

Stakhovsky to defeat Brands (1.66) - 1 unit (ATP Queens)

**Marillion** · 06-09-14, 03:37 AM

Krajinovic to defeat Sugita (1.72) - 2 units (Challenger Nottingham 2)

**Marillion** · 06-09-14, 06:20 AM

Davis to defeat Paszek (3.00) - 1 unit (WTA Birmingham)

**Marillion** · 06-09-14, 08:28 AM

Garcia to defeat Duval (1.57) - 4 units (WTA Birmingham)

**Marillion** · 06-10-14, 09:54 AM

Marx/Meffert to defeat T. Ito/Moriya (1.50) - 1 unit (Challenger Nottingham doubles)

**Marillion** · 06-10-14, 10:12 AM

I think I am going to quit betting regularly for a while (a year, two or so), cause it takes a lot of my time and it doesn't make much sense, as I don't have the money to invest in a solid bankroll (something like 10 000 USD, making it a hundred bucks per unit) now.

I've definitely learned a lot and I'll keep following the game and post here from time to time but I will abandon betting a dollar or two per game and posting picks on a daily basis here. I intend to dedicate myself on stuff like mathematics (learning the school stuff I never learned), online poker and probably programming with Python, so that in the future, I can get more $$ than those I make with my office job now. Tomorrow, I'll update the record.

Most probably, once I can set aside 10k bucks and feel safe with it (which I can't see myself doing soon as I have some life-related spendings now), I'll create a thread where I can post more "real" bets. I really like tennis betting and there is definitely good $$ to be made here (and in other sports probably), so I hope one day I can come back with a decent roll.

**kenz** · 06-10-14, 10:20 AM

I understand what you mean. This is too much time-consuming. Till you comeback your absence will be felt. BOL in whatever you decide to do

Thanks for your input and thanks for being one of the good guys

**fitguy67** · 06-10-14, 04:54 PM

yeah...you're a lifetime member of "Team Good Guys", now hopefully-proud official holder of e-card#4

applications welcome to Membership Committee==the entire membership so far== kenz, bababooey, fitguy67

qualifications for membership:
*express ANY interest in membership
*be found guilty of the crime of trying to help "someone that you don't even know and know you will never even meet"...every once in a while
*waste altogether too much time on sbr

annual fees: $0.00, but hurry will be raised at least 20% on July01
___________

Had to put in a plug for this...if we don't grow..."Team Unbelievably Rude Prikks" (whose membership largely confines themselves to the "Players' Talk" Section atm) will eventually break out of PT and take over the place

**Semper Fidelis** · 06-10-14, 08:39 PM

I'd like to go ahead and buy a lifetime membership Fitguy!

**fitguy67** · 06-11-14, 03:18 AM

done (#5)...

fine print: membership can be revoked iimmediately for the following offences
1. going out of your way to hassle someone who's not hassling anyone
(aka. being a dikk, a douche, or an unbelievably rude prikk, etc....)
end of list

Welcome to the fellowship...

we gotta develop a secret e-handshake, or smiley or something
too bad we never have meetings, otherwise we'd discuss it

**kenz** · 06-11-14, 03:40 AM

Good luck to Team Good Guys

Best team ever

**Semper Fidelis** · 06-11-14, 07:20 AM

Ha, thanks Fitguy! You know man I was thinking, I posted at another forum for a couple of months where we had our own little group per se, and we'd all release our top plays of the day for each other. The cool thing about it was that we all specialized in one or two sports, so we were only giving tips on the sports we followed the closest and had the most knowledge in. We had a couple of guys to represent each sport - everything from soccer and tennis to MLB and football when it started - and we all made some good money helping each other out. It was pretty awesome, and certainly representative of what look for when we become members of these forums.

The question then becomes, have you ever considered starting something similar to this, a group thread of sorts? I think it would be cool of we brought something like that to this forum. We could have a limited amount of people to represent each sport so it doesn't get out of hand, and someone (not necessarily you lol) could keep an accurate record of everything, showing total profits/units won/ROI% for each individual as well as the entire team as a whole! We could create the rules as to number/type of plays for each sport and any other factors that would ensure we only release our top plays (the ones we feel strongest about and think have the highest hance of winning) and not just every play we make. Maybe I'm getting a little ahead of myself - no reason to believe anyone would be interested in something like this - but I can tell you from experience with the other group that it worked beautifully, and we certainly profited from it! Let me know your thoughts guys, very interested in seeing what you all have to say about this!

**marniblitz** · 06-11-14, 10:55 AM

I've really enjoyed following your thread, Marillion. I hope you still drop in from time to time.

If you had been betting real money based on all the work you did here, you would have turned a nice little profit! Enough to build up the kind of bank roll you've often alluded to. However, I certainly can't fault you for being so responsible with your cash. GL!

**fitguy67** · 06-11-14, 11:00 PM

semper, pm me, or just post up here when you're able to receive a pm from me

**bababooey13** · 06-11-14, 11:06 PM

good idea semper. NFL is my real monkey maker. went 44 - 22 on straight spreads last year on sbr.

Originally posted by fitguy67

done (#5)...

fine print: membership can be revoked iimmediately for the following offences
1. going out of your way to hassle someone who's not hassling anyone
(aka. being a dikk, a douche, or an unbelievably rude prikk, etc....)
end of list

Welcome to the fellowship...

we gotta develop a secret e-handshake, or smiley or something
too bad we never have meetings, otherwise we'd discuss it

**Marillion** · 06-12-14, 04:05 AM

Thanks guys.

**Marillion** · 07-02-14, 01:54 AM

OK I've had a mental vacation and I think I'll continue with posting picks. I just enjoy betting too much (it's one of "my things") and have a reasonable approach to it, so I have decided I am not going to neglect it and will keep practicing with small units until I have the bankroll to bet decent $$.

In the next few days I am probably not going to post anything (or post very few picks), as I have practically stopped following the tennis closely.

Mexico to defeat Cameroon (2.30) - 1 unit (Soccer World Cup) win
Croatia to defeat Cameroon (2.00) - 1 unit (Soccer World Cup) win
Zahlavova Strycova to defeat Broady (1.61) - 4 units (WTA Birmingham) win
De Schepper to defeat Devvarman (1.53) - 1 unit (ATP Queens) win
Kubot to defeat Falla (2.00) - 1 unit (ATP Halle) loss
Lepchenko to defeat Van Uytvanck (1.57) - 2 units (WTA Birmingham) win
Przysiezny to defeat Gojowczyk (2.10) - 4 units (ATP Halle) loss
Herbert - Janowicz over 22.5 games (1.90) - 2 units (ATP Queens) loss
Carballes Baena to defeat Zhang (1.44) - 4 units (Challenger Prague) loss
Brown to defeat Andr. Kuznetsov (1.80) - 2 units (ATP Halle) win
Stakhovsky to defeat Brands (1.66) - 1 unit (ATP Queens) win
Krajinovic to defeat Sugita (1.72) - 2 units (Challenger Nottingham win
Davis to defeat Paszek (3.00) - 1 unit (WTA Birmingham) win
Garcia to defeat Duval (1.57) - 4 units (WTA Birmingham) loss
Marx/Meffert to defeat T. Ito/Moriya (1.50) - 1 unit (Challenger Nottingham doubles) win

Wins-Losses-Void
360-263-23

total units risked: 1133.5

YTD
+43.02 units

ROI
3.8%

**Marillion** · 07-02-14, 03:28 AM

Adding a soccer bet. Huge juice but huge juice plays can be as good as the other plays if the line is incorrect. I liked Germany to qualify against Algeria and I like the Dutchies as well (at 1.20).

PARLAY: Netherlands vs Costa Rica - Netherlands to qualify (World Cup Soccer) + Botev Plovdiv vs Libertas - Botev Plovdiv to win (UEFA Europa League) - 1 unit at odds of 1.26

The second play is as near free money as you can get (though miracles are sometimes possible lol). As for the first one, Costa Rica lack class. I've seen some of their players before (Bolanos, Borges, Barrantes) - skilled guys that can look like Neymar when playing in weak leagues. Bryan Ruiz brings some decent skill ofc but really nothing special.

Until now, they haven't played against anybody with a world class attack. Uruguay without Suarez, hopeless Italy (how can you have a forward whose name is Immobile, I mean really) and England. Their defenders lack class and Robben will just make them crazy.

I prefer NED to qualify to NED to win in regular time, as this is a huge difference... even if CRC make it to the extra time, the Dutchies should have more fresh air.

Hope this bet is not too square... let's see what happens.

**Marillion** · 07-02-14, 02:39 PM

Colombia - Brazil under 2.5 goals (1.72) - 1 unit

For all the love for Colombia, they are yet to face a strong team (Uruguay without Suarez have been terrible), so I am somewhat hesitant to bet on them though I may be wrong.

Brazil are solid defensively and their coach has finally shown that he will probably replace Dani Alves with Maicon.

On the other hand, Brazil are really lacking in offence (compared to how they have always been). The Colombians will do their best to stop Neymar and the other players haven't shown much (except Oscar in the match against Croatia). The strikers Fred and Jo are especially pathetic. IMO most of the time this match goes under.

**frugalgambler** · 07-02-14, 02:47 PM

I thought it was Brazil who was yet to face a good offensive team, and they have looked pretty mediocre on defense in every game. I think BTTS looks interesting as well as Colombia +0.5/+1.

**Marillion** · 07-02-14, 04:34 PM

IMO Brazil are OK in defines (and goalie), it's their midfield which sucks heavily. Also Chile were pretty good IMO (also agains Netherlands... for about 80 minutes, it was an even match with no advantage for the Dutchies).

I don't like BTTS but Colombia +.75 is probably good, I agree.

ed: Dany Alves was utterly horrible but it seems Maicon will start against Colombia.

**frugalgambler** · 07-02-14, 04:49 PM

Maybe you are right. Unders have been hitting like crazy in playoffs and this one might end with a 0-0 or 1-0 score, yet again.

**Marillion** · 07-03-14, 03:33 AM

Duque-Marino to defeat Siniakova (2.20) - 1 unit (ITF Women Versmold)

Don't know these players well but Duque-Marino is a clay court specialist who is in a good form and shouldn't be an underdog IMO. Also I think this is not the first time bookies have been overestimating Siniakova (I took Marcinkevica to defeat her earlier this year, I think in Stutgart, at odds of 3.75).

**Marillion** · 07-03-14, 03:40 AM

Errani/Vinci to defeat Barty/Dell'Acqua (1.57) - 1 unit (Wimbledon Women's Doubles)

Arguably the best doubles' team in the world. Their weakish serves are not nearly a big disadvantage here as they are in singles. Barty/Dell'Acqua are good but not as good... and they lost 6-0 6-1 to Sara and Roberta at the French Open.

**Marillion** · 07-03-14, 03:52 AM

Arguello to defeat Andreozzi (1.66) - 3 units (Challenger Manta)

IMO the better and more talented player with way better results this year. He won the last 2 matches H2H... the last one was this year and he won it 6-1 6-2.

**Kucera** · 07-03-14, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by Marillion

Arguello to defeat Andreozzi (1.66) - 3 units (Challenger Manta)

IMO the better and more talented player with way better results this year. He won the last 2 matches H2H... the last one was this year and he won it 6-1 6-2.

He actually won last 3 matches H2H...but this one will be on hard court? Do you think this makes a big difference as all of their previous meeting were on clay?

**Marillion** · 07-03-14, 05:32 AM

Legit concern but I still think Arguello has way better chances to win, hope I'm not mistaken.

**kenz** · 07-03-14, 05:35 AM

Welcome back and BOL monsieur Marillion

**Marillion** · 07-04-14, 03:13 AM

Thanks kens. Duque Marino was maybe a bad bet yesterday (probably should have taken into consideration that she may be tired after so many matches). I still like my Arguello bet though (bettors seemed to agree and pounded the line down to 1.33).

Colombia +0.75 (1.75) - 1 unit

As frugal pointed out, this must be a nice bet. It's one of those relatively rare occasions where every fn person on this world knows that is a good bet and it is absolutely no trap. OMG lol.

Btw I want to lose this bet very badly, as I have been a huge Brazil fan since I was very little. IMO with these players Scholari has called, there are not that many options (some pretty poor decisions, for example, taking Fred and Jo as strikers, omitting Lucas Leiva, etc., etc.) and the best he can do is replace Alves with Maicon, put both Willian, Bernard and Hulk to try do to something and play without a "clear" striker.