EP36's ACES

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #71
    Aussie Open: Round 4
    *Dokic -150(Kleybanova):
    This is a classic let-down spot for The Russian.Kleybanova got their win of her career against Ivanovic in the 3rd round, but now faces the steam rolling Aussie, Dokic. Dokic has been the big story here on the ladies side with her resurrection from the tennis graveyard. She's been steady with her first serve percentage (always a key stat) and has shown grit & determination in playing 3 set matches. Kleybanova meanwhile has done much the same although until the Ivanovic win, had played lesser competition. No doubt in my mind that if Dokic plays to the same level she did against Wozniacki & Chakvetadze to an extent - she is the pick here. The home crowd makes her all the more enticing. Kleybanova may be happy to have gotten this far after he monumental win. Dokic I think being the more experienced player, knows that these shots don't come around often in tennis & that she'll take advantage and continue her Cinderella run with a trip to the quarters.

    *Baghdatis +250 (Djokovic):
    This is a copy/paste of my diagnosis of this match
    when I did my pre-tourney write-up.

    [The Serb leads the head-2-head 2-0, including the 2007 Wimbledon classic 5 setter. We all know this was Djokovic's break out tourney in 2008. Still, his loss to Niemenen and Gulbis already this year + the way he ended 2008 still mark him as a fade for me. His interest in tennis/spirit just doesn't seem right. Baghdatis meanwhile is happy to be healthy (if indeed he is). When he's healthy, he's a danger to all in majors. I'm gonna peep an upset here. Maybe it's too much hate on my part for Djokovic, but he still has to prove it to me.
    ]

    As of today, I'm sticking with my gut feeling when I looked at the draw. Baghdatis has always been capable of making a run in any major when he's healthy. He seems just that right now and since bringing himself back up off the mat against Soderling, he's been playing some solid tennis. Baghdatis to me is that pesky player that Djokovic doesn't want to play at this point. A big key for Baghdatis to this point has been his ability to return serve. He's won over 40% of the return points against big servers Soderling & Fish. Djokovic is definitely another solid server that Baghdatis will try to wear down. To this point, Djokovic hasn't been extended fully in a match yet. If Baghdatis can make him work the entire match, then I think he has a chance today as Djokovic showed a little bit of that frustration at points against Delic when things did not go right. The price is right for me.
    Comment
    • Chad Hamilton
      SBR Rookie
      • 09-14-06
      • 41

      #72
      Good to see you back around this tennis season again EaglesFan thought you disappeared after you werent around for the first few tourneys. Love the new avatar aswell lol GL tonight!
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #73
        Aussie Open: Round 4
        [7-5 +2.30 for the tourney]

        *Blake +155 (Tsonga): I'm actually a bit surprised looking around that there are a lot more of you fellas on Blake than I expected. I've touted him as a surprise quarterfinalist prospect from Day 1 and I won't stray here. Tsonga's main concern heading in was his back and what his fitness would be like. To this point, he looks to be fine. But there have still been some hiccups for the Frenchman on his way to this point. He did struggle mightily against Ljubicic in Round 2 & inexplicably lapsed and lost a set to Sela, 6-1 in a match he otherwise dominated. That shows a concentration issue still underneath the surface at times for Tsonga. Blake meanwhile has been steady through three rounds. Nothing spectacular, just getting the job done. I think a key today for Blake is holding serve. He's not a high first serve percentage guy, but he has done a good job winning points on serve despite this. If Blake is aggressive in his return game and can keep the winner/error ratio better than 1.5:1, he has a definite chance. Their only career meeting in Paris last October is tough to gauge. Blake was in the midst of a miserable fade that started with the US Open, while Tsonga was on the upswing. I expect much more of a battle today where Tsonga will at the least be pushed to play his best to advance.

        *Garrigues - 115 (Suarez Navarro): Navarro had the big win over Venus in Round 2 and had few troubles passing the 3rd round. Garrigues has quietly rolled past her first 3 opponents, all in straights. She KO'ed the 12th seed Pennetta in the last round. I tip Garrigues here because her first serve percentage and points won off that has been higher and more consistent than Navarro to this point. If Garrigues maintains her percentage close to 70% and doesn't have a breakdown on second serves, expect her to come out with the win.
        Comment
        • meganie
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-09-08
          • 591

          #74
          Hope, we don't jinx it, need someone here to fade Blake. Your card looks good, hope you go 2-0.
          Comment
          • WestsidePete
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-19-07
            • 8049

            #75
            I'll also be on both players today....last match was the best I've seen Blake play in a while....GL today
            Comment
            • pat venditto
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 05-07-07
              • 14347

              #76
              You got a terrible line for the blake match. Line is +170 at matchy unreal ur burried.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #77
                Thanks Pat.
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #78
                  Aussie Open: Quarterfinals
                  [Tourney Record: 7-7 (+.15)]
                  *Parlay: Federer/Zvonareva (2 units to win 1.35)
                  Not overly interested in most of the prices for today's quarters at least as they're pretty steep on the faves. I do think Roddick has a shot at taking out Djoker, but like this combo pick better.

                  For Federer, it's a three pronged attack on why I like him here. #1 - He got the be-Jesus scared out of him against Berdych. The feeling for me is that match may well serve him like the Andreev match in last year's US Open where he got pushed to 5 sets in the 4th round. Fed won 2 of the next 3 rounds there in straight sets and beat Djokovic in between in 4 pretty convincing sets. #2 - Andy Murray's loss. A lot of chatter about "The Big 4" and how they look to one up each other. Well what the Murray loss did for me was send the others a clear message, bring your best or go home. Fed also knows if he can get to the final, he won't be dealing with Murray who had his number recently. #3 - 3 wins against Del Potro. The last coming in Madrid last October in straight sets. Both were playing well, although you could question Del Potro's health as he had the toe issue crop up. Still, in a major - this is Federer's to lose. Del Potro has yet to break through to a Grand Slam semifinal where as Roger has made I believe 18 straight semis at Slams.

                  Zvonareva has beaten Bartoli on a variety of surfaces in winning 6 of 7 head-2-heads. In 2008, Zvonareva dominated both meetings on the hard surface with Bartoli only winning 3 games in those two matches. Bartoli is getting a lot of ink for KO-ing Jankovic, but while she deserves the credit, Jankovic played about as poorly as one could. Bartoli also had matched up well with Double J in the past. If you look at Bartoli's stats for the Open here, she's barely winning 60% of her own serve points, while Zvonareva is producing at a much higher clip. I think the Russian has to know this is her best shot at not only a Slam semi in her career, but perhaps a Slam final. I think she gets it done.
                  Comment
                  • meganie
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-09-08
                    • 591

                    #79
                    If you don't win this parlay, I don't believe in tennis god anymore.

                    The only thing I'm concerned about is Bartoli's serve. When she played Zvonareva last year, she struggled big time with her serve, she hardly had matches with over 50% first serves I think and about 10 df in every match. But Zvonareva is my wild card to win the AO, so I think she'll win that. Let's see if Bartoli has a let down after the big victory over JJ.

                    I also like the way you're thinking about Roddick, I think he'll take atleast one set and with his serve you never know.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #80
                      Yeah. Zvonareva could be a break out pick on the women's side this year if she can get to the final here. Even if she just gets to the semis. She has served real well here in Melbourne, so I am hoping that continues. I trust her serve more than Bartoli.
                      Comment
                      • meganie
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-09-08
                        • 591

                        #81
                        Now talk about domination. Bartoli was up 3-1 in the first set, since then 11 (!!!!!) consecutive games for Zvonareva. Doesn't happen too often with two seeded players.

                        Funniest thing: She got swept and still a lot more applause, the crowd perhaps pitied her.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #82
                          Yeah she looked good. I think Zvonareva can beat Safina or Dokic. Glad I passed on Roddick just because of the outcome, I would have been pissed that the retirement screwed me. Go Fed!
                          Comment
                          • jgbgsox
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-16-09
                            • 5774

                            #83
                            who do u like safina or dokic
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #84
                              Aussie Open: Quarters
                              *Nadal/Simon OVER 31.5 (-115):
                              I don't think Nadal is going to have too much trouble advancing today, but I also believe Simon is good enough to sneak out at least one set in this match-up. Certainly that is what this bet is predicated on. If Nadal rolls in straights, this likely comes home a loser. Still, last year in Melbourne, Simon did manage to win 10 games in a straight sets loss to Rafa. I don't pay a ton of attention to Simon's win last October head-2-head as Nadal was really struggling with injuries. Simon only won 57% of his serve points that day and 37% of the return points, yet he won a 3rd set tie break in Paris. What that says to me is that a healthy Nadal is going to beat Simon. So let's just hope Simon is crafty enough to steal a set or extend Rafa if it is a straight sets situation to some 6-4 or 7-5 marks.

                              By the way, it appears from most of what I read that Rod Laver Arena will be closed tonight. Meaning AC and no heat due to extreme heat. Not 100% certain, but most newspaper articles I read indicated it was a high probability. Factor that into your picks!
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #85
                                *Verdasco +155: Roof open, this is the play for me. I think he has superior fitness to Tsonga even if Tsonga has the better overall game by a touch. If Verdasco serves well and isn't overwhelmed by the moment, he can definitely grab this and be the surprise semi-finalist.
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #86
                                  SCRATCH VERDASCO FOR ME TODAY. Roof is being closed. Verdasco still has a definite chance, but indoors and cool - Tsonga gains the edge.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #87
                                    Too bad I didn't keep Verdasco. Oh well. I'll take the squeaker win the other way!

                                    Australian Open Record: 9-7 (+2.50)
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #88
                                      Aussie Open: Semis
                                      *Serena +120 (Dementieva):
                                      There's just a sense of destiny to this match for me. From being saved from losing by Azarenka's sickness or Kuznetsova's inexplicable choke in the 2nd set yesterday, Serena has certainly received some magic to get to this point. What excites me about getting the plus money here too is the way that Serena really turned it on late in the 2nd set and then took a clearly rattled Kuzy to the woodshed in the 3rd. That is the Serena we've been waiting to see. Can she now keep that level of play? That is the question. Dementieva has beaten her three straight times, including a white washing in Sydney a few weeks ago. Dementieva hasn't lost in 2009. Yet this is the stage where you have to question her ability to get past an experienced Slam player like Serena. I still think Dementieva has the yips. Ten double faults against Navarro and a 49% on 1st serves. Do that tonight & Serena spanks you home to Russia. Serena hasn't been exactly consistent this tourney, but she knows how to pounce on a player who shows nerves at the wrong time and seems to be able to flick that perverbial switch on when she looks down & out. Also she's playing for the #1 ranking here. If Serena's serve stays consistent as a weapon, she wins.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #89
                                        *Nadal/Verdasco OVER 34.5 (-115): Nadal has yet to lose a set in Mebourne, which is amazing in itself. He has been so steady this week and while I do think he prevails in this match-up, Verdasco has been playing so well that it's hard not seeing him grabbing at least a set. Once Verdasco faced stiffer competition here in Melbourne, the numbers of games per match has jumped greatly. I think Verdasco brings the combo of skills seen in Nadal's last two opponents. Solid return game of Simon. And a vastly improved serve like Gonzo's that can be a weapon. Even in winning in straights against Simon, Nadal yielded 12 games to the Frenchman. If Verdasco gets a set, this is a great shot.
                                        Comment
                                        • pico
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 04-05-07
                                          • 27321

                                          #90
                                          CIA is making sure serena gonna win the match.
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #91
                                            Updated Australian Open Record: 10-7 (+3.70)

                                            Will update my overall ugly ass record after the tournament is over. Creeping to .500. Gonna have that hookers & blow party like Lou did when he hit .500.
                                            Comment
                                            • meganie
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-09-08
                                              • 591

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                              Will update my overall ugly ass record after the tournament is over. Creeping to .500. Gonna have that hookers & blow party like Lou did when he hit .500.
                                              Lol
                                              With you today, over seems to be the best choice.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #93
                                                Australian Open Record: 11-7 (+4.70)

                                                Only question for me is whether to hedge the 1/2 unit future on Federer with a Nadal bet in the final. I'm thinking to let it ride because I think Federer's got this. Not seeing much value on the women's side although I expect Serena to win. If the price shrunk down toward -200, maybe. At -240 to -250, no go for me.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #94
                                                  Overall Record UPDATED
                                                  12-13 (-0.90)

                                                  Pretty good considering a 1-6 start.

                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #95
                                                    Zagreb Indoors: 2.2.09
                                                    *Gabashvilli +140 (Youzhny):
                                                    Battle of two Russians, so really who the hell knows what will happen. They've split the career meetings, 1-1 with Gabashvilli pulling off the upset last October in Moscow. Youzhny was bloody awful in Melbourne, getting punked in straight sets. He's been on a free fall since late last year & while Gabashvilli hasn't done much this season early on, the price is right here in what I see as a 50-50 match. If Gabashvilli avoids the yips on serve, he has a definite shot here.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • RogueScholar
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-05-07
                                                      • 5082

                                                      #96
                                                      Right there with you on Gabashvilli, seemed to be pretty close to a coin flip to me, so why not take the sweet odds? I only got +135, but I think it's a good way to start the wagering week. Good luck you to, Eages.

                                                      Originally posted by StraitShooter
                                                      90% of the guys dont give a shit about your problems..and the other 10 are glad you have them..
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #97
                                                        South Africa Tennis Open: 2.2.09
                                                        *Garcia-Lopez -125 (Phau):
                                                        Phau has had a miserable go of it lately, losing to players (ranked 200+) who he clearly should at least be competitive against. Garcia-Lopez showed well with a win in Round 1 in Melbourne and then lost to a more talented, Marat Safin. Neither guy is overpowering, going with the one who has played better in the past couple weeks.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by RogueScholar
                                                          Right there with you on Gabashvilli, seemed to be pretty close to a coin flip to me, so why not take the sweet odds? I only got +135, but I think it's a good way to start the wagering week. Good luck you to, Eages.

                                                          Straight sets win. Youzhny is awful.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #99
                                                            Updated Record: 14-13 (+1.50)

                                                            Positive numbers! Hooo hawww!

                                                            Comment
                                                            • RogueScholar
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 02-05-07
                                                              • 5082

                                                              #100
                                                              Congrats, EP36! This was a kick ass way to start the day, now on to college hockey. I've got a micro-wager on Vassallo Arguello +100 too, he should have the upper-hand in the match considering he's from neighboring Argentina. Look forward to many more winning days for you, Eages.

                                                              Originally posted by StraitShooter
                                                              90% of the guys dont give a shit about your problems..and the other 10 are glad you have them..
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #101
                                                                Thanks bro. Appreciate it & hope that I have found my groove in tennis after a wickedly awful start.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #102
                                                                  ATP Movistar Open: 2.3.09
                                                                  *Massu -103 (Calleri):
                                                                  Calleri owns a big advantage head-2-head, but it's been over two years since they last met. Calleri is 1-9 in his last 10 matches and hasn't won since the US Open last Fall. Massu has only played two matches this campaign, but showed well in losing in 5 sets to Almargo in Melbourne. Couple that with him being a two-time finalist at this event in 2006 & 2007 and I like him to squeeze by here. Should be a 3 set baseline slugfest.

                                                                  Zagreb Indoors: 2.3.09
                                                                  *Bolelli -115 (Troicki):
                                                                  A tricky one here as both players are capable on the hard court of putting up a fight. Bolelli has won both head-2-head meetings & has been fairly steady in 2009, scoring an upset of Giles Simon in the first week of the New Year & fighting Safin hard in a straight sets loss. He made the semis here last year, so he is comfortable in this tourney. Troicki as always is up & down, so he could step in and play a big match, but I'll go for the 50-50 wager that Bolelli is more consistent all-around for the win.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Zagreb Indoors: 2.4.09
                                                                    *Ljubicic -165: If you like this play, grab it early as I expect the Croat's price to continue to rise. This tournament is clearly one of his favorites as he's made the final in three straight years. Ljubicic has a 14-2 record at this event with the only losses coming in the Finals. He enters this round in good form after playing Tsonga tough in Melbourne, he wiped out Rochus in Round 1 with his massive serve, winning 92% of the 1st serve points. Troicki meanwhile let Italian Simone Bolelli beat himself into submission. Bolelli couldn't return Troicki's first serve to save his life (13%) and Troicki rolled without much effort. These two have met three times and Ljubicic has won twice on hard courts. Ljubicic followed the same recipe both times, big serving game and pounded the Troicki second serve. If he does it again tomorrow, expect another win.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Brilliant choke by Ljubicic. Up 3-1 in the 3rd, he gets broken twice and loses 6-4. Awesome.


                                                                      Updated Record: 14-16 (-2.33)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #105
                                                                        ATP Movistar Open: 2.6.09
                                                                        *P.Cuevas +125 (Capdeville):
                                                                        Both men have had an easy go of it so far in Chile. Cuevas however does have a couple more matches under his belt after going through qualifying. He's showing again that this court is one he loves to play on after making the semis here last year before losing to F.Gonzalez where he played him to two tie breakers in the first two sets. Both Cuevas & Capdeville have been rock solid on serve, giving very few break opportunities to their opponents. This figures to be a tight match, but I'll go with the youngster here to continue his fine form at Vina Del Mar where he's beaten 5 players in the Top 100 in the 2 years he's played here.
                                                                        Comment
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