my 'don't call it soccer' picks

tommygun · 01-19-11, 07:25 AM

Decado, the english lower leagues are another one of my no-go leagues due to the fact there are quite a number of 0-0 draws, just a heads up.

decado · 01-19-11, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

Decado, the english lower leagues are another one of my no-go leagues due to the fact there are quite a number of 0-0 draws, just a heads up.

Yes but League One has a low average of 0-0 draws, when compared to other leagues in England.

example of 0-0 Draws this season:
HOL Jupiler: 3.1%
SCO PL: 3.3%
GER Bundesliga: 4.9%
ENG Lea 1: 6%
ESP Primera D: 6.8%
ENG PL: 7.7%
ENG Champ: 7.8%
ENG Lea 2: 8.2%
FRA Ligue 1: >10%
ITA Serie A: >10%

decado · 01-19-11, 09:47 AM

POR: Guimaraes v Arouca - lay 0:0 - 2x

xtrzor · 01-19-11, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by decado

actually it is the opposite. i do NOT expect the game to end with a score of 0:0 at half time. this type of betting is only available on betting exchange sites such as betfair.

thx. but the odds are very small ? like 1.10 or something. that is european. am i right ? good luck

decado · 01-19-11, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by xtrzor

thx. but the odds are very small ? like 1.10 or something. that is european. am i right ? good luck

Yes in lay 0:0 they are small. You can calculate into back odds by using lay#/(lay#-1)

It is still different and better than picking heavy favorites such as in NBA or Tennis. All you need to do is to find out where many goals will fall.

For laying against the draw: I usually trade out to make profit when I have the chance (ex. 1-0 lead for fav or 2-0 for dog). After that no matter the outcome I've already won.

I rather want my profit to grow steady and slow than to to be around 0 for weeks.

xtrzor · 01-19-11, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by decado

Yes in lay 0:0 they are small. You can calculate into back odds by using lay#/(lay#-1)

It is still different and better than picking heavy favorites such as in NBA or Tennis. All you need to do is to find out where many goals will fall.

For laying against the draw: I usually trade out to make profit when I have the chance (ex. 1-0 lead for fav or 2-0 for dog). After that no matter the outcome I've already won.

I rather want my profit to grow steady and slow than to to be around 0 for weeks.

i agree

pretty nice ''system''.

what do you think about betting on 1st half less than 1.5 goals....
or
betting on more than 1.5 goals FT

?

i've been pretty succesful with those two.

amonsot · 01-19-11, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by decado

For laying against the draw: I usually trade out to make profit when I have the chance (ex. 1-0 lead for fav or 2-0 for dog). After that no matter the outcome I've already won.

I dont understand what you mean by this.

In the last ac millan and real madrid game you said you tried to do some live bets to lower your losses, can you explain some more on what you did?

This weekend i've put a big nil nil lay on newcastle vs tottenham.

decado · 01-19-11, 03:08 PM

NED: AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen - lay X - 5x

decado · 01-19-11, 03:11 PM

ENG: Leeds v Arsenal - in game lay 0:1 - 2x

decado · 01-19-11, 03:22 PM

ITA: Inter v Cesena - in-game lay 2:2 - 3x

decado · 01-19-11, 03:59 PM

ESP: Betis v Barcelona - lay X - 7x

decado · 01-19-11, 04:43 PM

BRA: Santos v Mirassol - lay X - 8x

decado · 01-19-11, 04:47 PM

BRA: Vasco da Gama v Resende - lay X - 8x

decado · 01-20-11, 04:21 AM

Originally posted by xtrzor

what do you think about betting on 1st half less than 1.5 goals.... or betting on more than 1.5 goals FT ?

i've been pretty succesful with those two.

This is probably the opposite of what I am trying here. I will have to find teams that score not much in 1H (ITA, FRA,..). To filter 'lay 0:0' matches takes too much work already. You could try to open a new thread for that and share with everyone.

Originally posted by amonsot

I dont understand what you mean by this. In the last ac millan and real madrid game you said you tried to do some live bets to lower your losses, can you explain some more on what you did?

When laying a game, you must have an exit strategy. For example when you see a match that has no chance for either team to win or the underdog leading with one goal but the favorite keeps attacking (imminent draw coming). Here I will back on draw and lay on the dog to minimize my initial lay X loss.
If you cannot win a bet, you need to reduce your loss instead.

With AC Milan, they were up to 1-0 but the game ended 1-1. I should have backed the draw at 1-0, maybe around 70-75min to get out with a winner here. but I missed that and got out right after 1-1 (85min) and lost money.

decado · 01-20-11, 04:38 AM

previous: 57-6-1 with +129.93
POR: Guimaraes v Arouca - lay 0:0 - 2x LOSS -10.63 (a goal still happened in 86min, i exited at 70min)
NED: AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen - lay X -5x LOSS -15.44 (nijmegen late goal kills me again. should have exited at 2-1)
ENG: Leeds v Arsenal - in game lay 0:1 - 2x WIN +2
ITA: Inter v Cesena - in-game lay 2:2 - 3x WIN +3
ESP: Betis v Barcelona - lay X - 7x WIN +7
BRA: Santos v Mirassol - lay X - 8x WIN +8
BRA: Vasco da Gama v Resende - lay X - 8x WIN +8

now: 62-8-1 with 131.86

two picks again with wrong trading management. both could've won.
but how do i know that? no live stats available and i have absolutely no idea how they played. still could even out the night with late games. +1.93.

amonsot · 01-20-11, 05:05 AM

I see, of course. Thanks for the post.

decado · 01-21-11, 06:00 AM

INT: Japan v Qatar - lay 0:0 - 3x

tommygun · 01-21-11, 06:54 AM

whens ths game on?????

Roadtrip635 · 01-21-11, 06:58 AM

8:25am eastern

tommygun · 01-21-11, 07:10 AM

im in australia

decado · 01-21-11, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

whens ths game on?????

in about one hour from now

tommygun · 01-21-11, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by decado

in about one hour from now

thx, i wil be keenly watching it

confident?

decado · 01-21-11, 07:43 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

thx, i wil be keenly watching it

confident?

uh, well.. one has to win

japan ain't gonna sit back and watch. qatar sure won't either.

and i am curious if there are any fixes going on being qatar as the host.

so, it definitely will be an interesting one.

Roadtrip635 · 01-21-11, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

im in australia

Yeah, starts in about 45 minutes.

The Qatar coach was calling the Japan team the "Barcelona of Asia" ...lol

Sawyer · 01-21-11, 08:04 AM

Yeah, it's futbol. Not soccer..

Call it soccer in europe and people will laugh

tommygun · 01-21-11, 08:40 AM

Decado, GOAL GOAL GOAL GOAL , Qatar just scored, 13 mins. $$$$$$

decado · 01-21-11, 08:49 AM

13min. that is a very good pick.

decado · 01-21-11, 09:19 AM

INT: Japan v Qatar - in-game lay 1:1 - 3x

decado · 01-21-11, 02:03 PM

NED: FC Eindhoven v Telstar - lay X - 7x
NED: Zwolle v AGOVV - lay X - 7x
NED: Almere v Waalwijk - lay X - 10x

Sanka · 01-21-11, 02:08 PM

Zwolle already took the lead after 3 minutes

decado · 01-21-11, 02:40 PM

ITA: Livorno v Albinoleffe - lay 0:0 - 2x

decado · 01-21-11, 03:15 PM

POR: Leixoes v Feirense - lay 0:0 - 3x

tommygun · 01-21-11, 06:15 PM

damn it decado, i missed some of your picks because i went to bed!!

decado · 01-22-11, 06:05 AM

Originally posted by tommygun

damn it decado, i missed some of your picks because i went to bed!!

#sorry about that

might have some plays today.

decado · 01-22-11, 06:11 AM

previous: 62-8-1 with 131.86
INT: Japan v Qatar - lay 0:0 - 3x WIN +3
INT: Japan v Qatar - in-game lay 1:1 - 3x WIN +3
NED: FC Eindhoven v Telstar - lay X - 7x WIN +3.65 (greening -3.45)
NED: Zwolle v AGOVV - lay X - 7x WIN +7
NED: Almere v Waalwijk - lay X - 10x WIN +10
ITA: Livorno v Albinoleffe - lay 0:0 - 2x WIN +2
POR: Leixoes v Feirense - lay 0:0 - 3x WIN +3

now: 69-8-1 with 163.51

solid friday.
might have plays today, but i don't know whether i have time to be around. i'll do my best.