Jsnep7 Euro2016 picks GTFO

[Jsnep7]

i meant straight up moneyline was , im leaning england i see them winning 2-1 here
theyre at -120 i like the price to but ive been terrible all tourney so that doesnt mean much if i like it haha

Do you mean 1x2 regular time or moneyline? (in case of draw money back)

Nice writeups. One game where I disagree with you outright is Czechs o2.5, that match might get ugly Romania-Albania style, both teams just have no scoring options. GL.

Difference in this match is that turkey needs a win with a margin of goals 2-3 goals. Czech also needs the win. The match between albania - romania started off with romania defending a point where it would be enough for them. This won't be the case in this match so i hope there will be a early 1st goal. if czech score the first goal they will be in a good enough position, in this case i will secure this bet. If turkey score the 1st goal i won't secure it because then both teams have even more reason to attack.

+0 is pk, same as draw no bet.

^ indeed

[Jsnep7]

UEFA EURO 2016 - Group C Winner
Outright
Poland @ 5.20
0.5 unit

Why not? Poland playing against a Ukraine that is already out of the tournament and has a GD of 0:4.
Germany playing against north ireland that will fight every second for the point or atleast a good GD.

Odds should be no higher than 3.00 here imo.

[Bagalut]

I hope slovakia opens up 2nd half once they realises Wales is winning...

[Jsnep7]

I hope slovakia opens up 2nd half once they realises Wales is winning...

Ridiculous, players on the pitch will get that info, they need a win anyway. Stupid fuckers doing nothing, really can't comprehend this. Maybe they think it's a 3 way penetrating meeting.

[korki]

Ridiculous, players on the pitch will get that info, they need a win anyway. Stupid fuckers doing nothing, really can't comprehend this. Maybe they think it's a 3 way penetrating meeting.

They got info. But they calculate dont need win. X good. Go up from group with 4 points.

[chuda]

They got info. But they calculate dont need win. X good. Go up from group with 4 points.

if Iceland beat Austria and Portugal beat Hungary by 1 goal , i think they are out then ?

[Grivas_Digeni]

Betting an over in a game where both teams surely advance EVEN with a draw, was unwise. You did the right thing with France/Switzerland, why not here?

[Grivas_Digeni]

Also, for the record, I will be backing Ukraine if this line continues to move. First game vs Germany was a better indication of this team's ability, not the second one vs N.I. They will find multiple reasons why they sucked this bad (poor coaching, terrible weather etc.) and they'll surprise Poland, or actually at least try.

+0.75 is the goal

[swordsandtequila]

Ridiculous, players on the pitch will get that info, they need a win anyway. Stupid fuckers doing nothing, really can't comprehend this. Maybe they think it's a 3 way penetrating meeting.

For tournament play I'd like to see a change in the format/rules. No points for ties, only for wins. Tiebreaker is total goals scored instead of goal differential (goals against doesn't matter). Then maybe these sorry fuks would play to win/score instead of sitting back hoping to get through. At least the games would be more entertaining. Say what you want about the quality of the teams in Copa America versus Euros, ain't nobody parking the bus (for the most part).

[Grivas_Digeni]

Ok so let's change the rules in the NFL as well. No touching the quarterback. No touching wide receivers. Hell, let's just play 15 vs 10 so there's more scoring and 'entertainment'.

And while we're at it, it's time to introduce 4- and 5-point lines in the NBA as well.








And double the size of hockey goals. Bandy sized goals should do. Not enough action for me as it is.











And please please please let's ban Clayton K. and Jake A. from ever playing baseball again. They are killing all the action!

[swordsandtequila]

Ok so let's change the rules in the NFL as well. No touching the quarterback. No touching wide receivers. Hell, let's just play 15 vs 10 so there's more scoring and 'entertainment'.

And while we're at it, it's time to introduce 4- and 5-point lines in the NBA as well.








And double the size of hockey goals. Bandy sized goals should do. Not enough action for me as it is.











And please please please let's ban Clayton K. and Jake A. from ever playing baseball again. They are killing all the action!

Over-react much? Chill out, was just an idea. That said, none of those sports reward a team for not trying to score/win. I understand in the present format it's strategy, but if I paid money to watch that Slovakia game I'd be pissed. It wasn't about the lack of goals, moreso the lack of effort.

And since you brought it up, they have changed the rules in the NFL (for better or worse) regarding contact with receivers. The NHL altered the area behind the net where goaltenders can handle the puck, and restricted their pad size. The NBA added the three pt. line (granted, years ago), made the restricted area under the basket larger to keep defenders from parking to draw charges, limited handchecking, etc. The point of all these changes? To open up the game, make it more free flowing, to showcase athleticism. Is it perfect? No. But it's better than watching teams perfectly content to pass the ball around for two hours.

[korki]

if Iceland beat Austria and Portugal beat Hungary by 1 goal , i think they are out then ?

Something is politic. Maybe unlogic but is fact. Slovak public have before match only one expectation DRAW (no one talk about 3 points! seriously).
Politic is that: 3 points > we have problem - its our fail
4 points > and qualify from group FAIL > "ooooo we was unlucky,sorry mayben next time"

[shadymcgrady]

Will Lewandowski finally show up today? Such a disappointing euro thus far for arguably the best striker in the world right now

[chuda]

Something is politic. Maybe unlogic but is fact. Slovak public have before match only one expectation DRAW (no one talk about 3 points! seriously).
Politic is that: 3 points > we have problem - its our fail
4 points > and qualify from group FAIL > "ooooo we was unlucky,sorry mayben next time"

i get you well here. i am sure half of world`s managers before tournament, thinking of draw, would think, hmm,a 1 point against england would be pretty good result.

but on a day , in last round, in these circumstances, i just don`t get those gutless - walking on a thin ice strategies. think about it... england starting XI was announced day before.
*you see - changed back line, no best offensive fullbacks, deep sitting defensive midfielder in front of back four, no much pace on a wings to stretch you wide. 1/3 of team is first time starters.
*you have - very good performing team in this tournament, talented, good enough midfield and encouraging results.
two basic options :
* you make 451 formation (which got you lose against wales) . you play for draw, most likely 0 - 0 and hope, that you won`t receive one in 85 + minute anyway... and what if you concede ? .... "ooooo we was unlucky,sorry mayben next time"
* or you make 4321 formation (which in last game worked so well and beat russia comfortable) and go out to score at least one goal, to secure draw position or even maybe win the group. or move whole ball play more to midfield , rather than your own 3rd.
....................

and in this game, one old style p..ssy manager met another one alike.

fkn hodson... why you make 3 changes like for like to win a game, take off DM - Dier ... Slovaks didn`t passed a half line ffs... add width and one on one capable players like sterling or rashford on a sides to stretch packed defense , instead of another trough middle - rooney. and why did you fkn bring rashford as 5th striker if you not gonna use him anyway. arghh ...

here, don`t mind me, i got what you said and most managers still agree with this way.

but i prefer to see strategies, like wales for example... they were fine with 0 - 0 as well .... did they sit on it 11 in box? they went out high up the field, right in face, always added extra man from midfield on a breaks, 4 to 5 players in russian box at 0 - 0 result on score board... bang
this is difference between brave , ambitious and fruitful tactics, pleasing on eye and give go... it`s only once in 4 years, you know. or defending 0 - 0 result from 1st minute ... just to concede in a last minute tactics, and go home like loosers...

[Jsnep7]

I just ****** up with that bet hugely. Should've seen that england did not care about winning the group. 2nd in the group means you face another 2nd from another group F wich probably means iceland/hungary/austria. Just so penetrating stupid i believed england would go for the win. Probably one of the worst bets i have ever played this year, my apologies.

Got these bets lined up for tonight:

Northern Ireland - Germany
Under 2.5 @ 2.10
2 units
Northern Ireland will want that point, if they don't get that point they will want to keep the damage minimal so they conted to be a top 3 country to go to the next round. GD for them now is 2:1. If you end at 3th with 3 points and a GD of 2:2 or 2:3 i reckon you have a pretty good spot to still make the knockout. N Ireland knows this aswell and they will fight this match for their lives. I expect them to start winning time from minute 1. Germany will be content with a small win. Poland is playing ukraine, don´t expect them to be a walkover. Poland looks good in the back this tourney but Milik and Lewandowski can´t impress me up front thus far.

Ukraine - Poland
Poland -0.5 @ 2.04
1 unit
Ukraine is a joke this tournament, absolute rubbish. Konoplyanka can't deliver, he's not a leader. 0 points and a GD 0:4 means they're already out. Poland can still win the group. 2.04 is a gift here and i'll take it.

Croatia - Spain
Spain -0.5 @ 2.31
1 unit
Croatia is actually not in a good spot here. Even tough they have 4 points they must be cautious. They can still win the group if they beat spain, but they can also still end 3th. Czech is playing Turkey, after what i've seen tonight Turkey seems like a team without a soul. They'll get butchered coming days by turkish press, im sure this will leave a mark. If czech beats turkey with 1:0 and Croatia loses to spain with 1:0 then it's a tie and i'm not sure what they'll do in that case. Both would be left with a GD of 3:3 and a H2H of 2-2. So croatia still has a lot to fight for. Spain knows a draw is enough for winning the group. But they also know that if they lose they'll go 2nd into the knockout stage. Spain has quality enough on the bench. Usually i would not take these odds but the main reason i took it is because today Luka Modric went off injured. Would be a huge blow to croatia if he does not make this match.

Czech - Turkey
Over 2.5 @ 2.00
1 unit
Do or die match for czech. They'll need a win to go trough as 2nd (thanks to spain) or as a best 3th so they'll come for the win. Turkey might want revenge, still a small chance they go trough if they win with 3-0+ so they'll play all guns blazing. Its over for these countries to play the heavy under.

UEFA EURO 2016 - Group C Winner
Outright
Poland @ 5.20
0.5 unit

[Jsnep7]

Soccer

Total

UEFA - EURO 2016

Match

6/21/2016 9:28

Belgium
-vs-
Sweden

Under 2.25 @ 1.833 D

Unders have been very good for me so far this tournament.
Here we have belgium that can only become 2nd at best. Sweden needs a win.
Belgium will however dominate this match, just like they did the first against the italians, more possession etc. Against the Italians they created few chances, and this match they don't need to create a lot, a point is enough. Wilmots is a coward by heart and will play a coward line-up and tactic. Sweden need a win but they aren't as clinical as the italians and don't create chances easily. If 1 team scores the match will only get worse and we will see 1 team defend even more. Also a goal for belgium might kill the swede's hunger as they need to score 2 in that case.

1 unit

[shadymcgrady]

Soccer

Total

UEFA - EURO 2016

Match

6/21/2016 9:28

Belgium
-vs-
Sweden

Under 2.25 @ 1.833 D

Unders have been very good for me so far this tournament.
Here we have belgium that can only become 2nd at best. Sweden needs a win.
Belgium will however dominate this match, just like they did the first against the italians, more possession etc. Against the Italians they created few chances, and this match they don't need to create a lot, a point is enough. Wilmots is a coward by heart and will play a coward line-up and tactic. Sweden need a win but they aren't as clinical as the italians and don't create chances easily. If 1 team scores the match will only get worse and we will see 1 team defend even more. Also a goal for belgium might kill the swede's hunger as they need to score 2 in that case.

1 unit

Wilmots most likely a coward but he DEFINITELY has a pair of man boobs to go along with it. You don't see belgium coming out of this one with 1-0 or 2-0 win? What about Ibrahimovic? Is he due for at least 1 goal? I know he's in the twilight of his career but he's still a great striker.

Also why not put another unit on Poland to win outright today? As good as Ukrainian defense has looked thus far Lewandowski is due no?

[addic3t]

Croatia - Spain
Spain -0.5 @ 2.31
1 unit
Croatia is actually not in a good spot here. Even tough they have 4 points they must be cautious. They can still win the group if they beat spain, but they can also still end 3th. Czech is playing Turkey, after what i've seen tonight Turkey seems like a team without a soul. They'll get butchered coming days by turkish press, im sure this will leave a mark. If czech beats turkey with 1:0 and Croatia loses to spain with 1:0 then it's a tie and i'm not sure what they'll do in that case. Both would be left with a GD of 3:3 and a H2H of 2-2. So croatia still has a lot to fight for. Spain knows a draw is enough for winning the group. But they also know that if they lose they'll go 2nd into the knockout stage. Spain has quality enough on the bench. Usually i would not take these odds but the main reason i took it is because today Luka Modric went off injured. Would be a huge blow to croatia if he does not make this match.

If both end tied like that and Fair play points decides. Czech have 1 FP and Croatia 0. IF both also end with same FP and higher rank nation counts. Czech (13) is also ranks higher than Croatia (17).

But this is a NO BET game! Croatia fans Ultra have said they gonna make Croatia kicked out of Euro 2016 by distrupting the game, no matter how the game will end.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/croatian-ultras-determined-team-kicked-8230937

[Jsnep7]

Wilmots most likely a coward but he DEFINITELY has a pair of man boobs to go along with it. You don't see belgium coming out of this one with 1-0 or 2-0 win? What about Ibrahimovic? Is he due for at least 1 goal? I know he's in the twilight of his career but he's still a great striker.

Also why not put another unit on Poland to win outright today? As good as Ukrainian defense has looked thus far Lewandowski is due no?

Not sure, belgium does not need the win, think under is safer here. Ibra and Cristiano can decide games on theirselves against smaller teams. Belgium has good CB's. Where was zlatan against bonucci and chiellini?

If both end tied like that and Fair play points decides. Czech have 1 FP and Croatia 0. IF both also end with same FP and higher rank nation counts. Czech (13) is also ranks higher than Croatia (17).

But this is a NO BET game! Croatia fans Ultra have said they gonna make Croatia kicked out of Euro 2016 by distrupting the game, no matter how the game will end.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/footba...kicked-8230937

Don't think spain will be influenced by some ultras. And you know how fifa works. Games must be finished no matter the costs. Spain has way to much quality, also on the bench. These odds represent high value for me. They were so dominant first 2 matches.

[intermission]

Germany had 26 shots but only 1 goal, I take that luck any day too bad I got the under 2.5 at -137 instead of plus odd for you

[shadymcgrady]

Another 2 wins jsnep. Keep up the great work!

[shadymcgrady]

Zlatan tends to disappear at times but there is no denying his talent. Law of averages states that he will have to show himself at some point? Which would point to Sweden last euro match. Belgium certainly out classes sweden in talent but no Kompany and vertognen is like Sergio Ramos not rly a great defender. Ibrahimovic can definitely score on that back 4.

And yet Uve been very accurate and consistent with ur picks so it's hard to deny that. Especially after germany and their 30 shots on goal and still hitting the under! Sick

[Jsnep7]

Germany had 26 shots but only 1 goal, I take that luck any day too bad I got the under 2.5 at -137 instead of plus odd for you

Did not see that match, was watching poland - ukraine live. Heard intentions of N ireland were clear, keep the score as minimal as possible. We still had a goal as buffer.

Another 2 wins jsnep. Keep up the great work!

Zlatan tends to disappear at times but there is no denying his talent. Law of averages states that he will have to show himself at some point? Which would point to Sweden last euro match. Belgium certainly out classes sweden in talent but no Kompany and vertognen is like Sergio Ramos not rly a great defender. Ibrahimovic can definitely score on that back 4.

And yet Uve been very accurate and consistent with ur picks so it's hard to deny that. Especially after germany and their 30 shots on goal and still hitting the under! Sick

Ofcourse he's an amazing player at PSG. But the ligue 1 is a joke for PSG, the difference in quality is so big. I watched a lot of games of zlatan this season at psg, don't get me wrong, but if cavani played all those games as main striker he would also score 20+. Zlatan is still amazing, but i don't think he can carry a team anymore.

Vertonghen is playing Left back in the belgium squad, vermaelen and alderweireld are the CB's. Alderweireld had an amazing season at spurs, really good development by him. One of the best CB's in the prem atm.

[Wonderbox]

So we are dodging Spain game?

[frugalgambler]

Zlatan tends to disappear at times but there is no denying his talent. Law of averages states that he will have to show himself at some point? Which would point to Sweden last euro match.

Law of averages has not been helping the likes of Lewandowski and Ronaldo so far. Ibra is just mentally not in France right now. He needs strong teammates to shine, with a subpar support he blows.

[Jsnep7]

So we are dodging Spain game?

I've got spain win at 2.30. Posted it here early. Dropped now to 2.00 where i would not recommend taking it.

also played turkey - czech over 2.5 @ 2.00 but that has gone up to 2.25

[shadymcgrady]

Law of averages has not been helping the likes of Lewandowski and Ronaldo so far. Ibra is just mentally not in France right now. He needs strong teammates to shine, with a subpar support he blows.

Lewandowski another one that has been missing on milk cartons geez! I guess he's got world cup in 2 yrs to show his stuff on a national level but wtf. Glad I didn't bet a golden boot prop bet

[intermission]

anyone know why kickoff only use one person now? is there advantage/disadvantage for this? is this new?

[shadymcgrady]

Hey J, what are your general thoughts on the tourney as the rounds progress? Are there certain teams you're interested to see advancing? Seems like betting value is harder to come by depending on the matchups

[Stackzilla]

anyone know why kickoff only use one person now? is there advantage/disadvantage for this? is this new?

Northern Ireland was the 1st team to ever do that and will probably be the only team ever to do that it's not something widely used

[intermission]

Northern Ireland was the 1st team to ever do that and will probably be the only team ever to do that it's not something widely used

spain game and turkey game literally just used one man instead of two for kickoff

[chuda]

anyone know why kickoff only use one person now? is there advantage/disadvantage for this? is this new?

it`s new rules starting with this tournament... you can do it now

no really adv/diadv... just no need for second fuk there to touch da ball

[firekillex]

Another missed penalty...... Why God, why

[iloseagain]

Another missed penalty...... Why God, why

ive gotten screwed by 2 straight now.. the other was ronaldo.. when does ronaldo ever miss a PK?? Oh, thats right, when i have a bet on them

[intermission]

ramos is a cocky motherfuker, shouldve let iniesta or silva or fabegras shoot the penalty