Ste's plays

BrianKay · 05-11-13, 11:45 AM

Over was the easy play on girona...missed it

stemellor · 05-11-13, 12:24 PM

Unbelievable! Xerez, where did that come from??

Oh well, added a couple more units to the Estoril game just before kick off. Hopefully lightening doesn't strike twice

Gamblan · 05-11-13, 02:02 PM

What a ludicrous goal haha

stemellor · 05-11-13, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Gamblan

What a ludicrous goal haha

I know, bit of luck for a change. I definitely needed that!

Pan43 · 05-11-13, 02:38 PM

What a comeback by Zulte Waregem

Johndrama · 05-11-13, 02:41 PM

yeah, and im the retard that took the draw live, dont know why i didnt take the -0.25 line. Oh well at least someone gets a profit out of this. Down with the book !_!

Tenver · 05-11-13, 02:45 PM

Out of nowhere, they pull 3 goals

... well..

stemellor · 05-11-13, 02:57 PM

I never doubted ZW for a second!

stemellor · 05-11-13, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by stemellor

Also adding the following 2 plays today:

Portugal: Estoril vs Beira Mar

Estoril off the back of a great draw with Benfica and Beira Mar battling relegation. Estoril have won their last 5 home games are now have a real chance of qualifying for Europe next year. Beira Mar have lost 7 of their last 8 away games. I have Estoril with around a 60% chance of winning tonight.

Taking Estoril -0.5 for 1u @ 1.847 on Pinny as the value pick.

Belgium Playoffs: Lokeren vs Zulte Waregam
This goes against my normal style of value betting as I am taking a bit of a punt with this one. Zulte have lost their last 2 games, but Lokeren have very little to play for here. To qualify for the Europa League playoff spot they would have to win all 3 remaining games and hope Genk also lose all 3. Zulte can still win the league and must have the greater motivation in this match. Zulte also play better away from home this year.

I'm taking Zulte DNB for 1u @ 1.909 on Pinny.

Turned out really well with 2 late goals from Estoril and Porto after I thought I had been screwed by Girona.
Went 2-2.5-0.5 on my picks today, +0.4u. Including a late tip from John it was 3-2.5-0.5 and +3.2u for the day. Also of note was an amazing comeback from Zulte Waregam who won 3-2 after being down 2-0 at Half time.

Overall record now 18.5-15.5-2. +10.7u

Johndrama · 05-11-13, 05:15 PM

You're doing very solid picks, let's turn tomorrow into a winning day !

stemellor · 05-11-13, 07:10 PM

12 May

MLS: Dallas vs DC United

I have Dallas with around a 70% chance of winning tonight, so ML odds of 1.746 represents great value. Dallas drew their last home game against 3rd placed Portland, but have won the 4 previous home games. DC are bottom of the league and have lost 3 of the 4 away games this season.

Taking Dallas SU for 3u @ 1.746 on Pinny.

stemellor · 05-12-13, 05:14 AM

Originally posted by stemellor

MLS: Dallas vs DC United

I have Dallas with around a 70% chance of winning tonight, so ML odds of 1.746 represents great value. Dallas drew their last home game against 3rd placed Portland, but have won the 4 previous home games. DC are bottom of the league and have lost 3 of the 4 away games this season.

Taking Dallas SU for 3u @ 1.746 on Pinny.

Just going to add 1 extra play today:

Sweden: Djugarden vs Malmo: Djurgarden are currently bottom of the league with 1 point and are in disarray both on and off the field, with their manager resigning. Malmo are in good form, winning 2 away and drawing with top of the table IFK in the last match.
Malmo also have the clear edge in the head 2 heads between these 2 teams and have won 5 of the last 6 meetings. The games are normally tight affairs, settled by just 1 goal.

I'm taking Malmo -0.5 @ 1.769 on Pinny. Risking 1.3u to win 1u.

I'm playing quite conversatively as you can never be sure how a team reacts to losing a manager and Djurgarden are a much better team than their current form suggests.

Tenver · 05-12-13, 05:46 AM

Nice job on the Dallas one, gonna tail that Allsvenskan game. Does look like Djurgården is in a mess.

stemellor · 05-12-13, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by Tenver

Nice job on the Dallas one, gonna tail that Allsvenskan game. Does look like Djurgården is in a mess.

Thanks. I literally spotted the Dallas game just before kick off otherwise I would have got it up earlier.

stemellor · 05-12-13, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by stemellor

Just going to add 1 extra play today:

Sweden: Djugarden vs Malmo: Djurgarden are currently bottom of the league with 1 point and are in disarray both on and off the field, with their manager resigning. Malmo are in good form, winning 2 away and drawing with top of the table IFK in the last match.
Malmo also have the clear edge in the head 2 heads between these 2 teams and have won 5 of the last 6 meetings. The games are normally tight affairs, settled by just 1 goal.

I'm taking Malmo -0.5 @ 1.769 on Pinny. Risking 1.3u to win 1u.

I'm playing quite conversatively as you can never be sure how a team reacts to losing a manager and Djurgarden are a much better team than their current form suggests.

Too much value to turn this one down so going to play for 1 unit as well.

Belgium: Division 2 Play-off:
White Star Woluwe vs Mouscron

Woluwe are an excellent team at home (over 70% win rate in the regular season) and Mouscron were indifferent (around a 33% win rate away in regular season). Woluwe are off the back of a good away draw in the first playoff game and Mouscron were beaten heavily at home.

Taking WS Woluwe DNB for 1u @ 2.22 on Pinny.

onemoregoal · 05-12-13, 06:35 AM

There was a period where WSW players were on strike, they have no money to pay wages. Not sure if thats the case in the play offs, as you would have thought ;win playoffs=wages!

stemellor · 05-12-13, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

There was a period where WSW players were on strike, they have no money to pay wages. Not sure if thats the case in the play offs, as you would have thought ;win playoffs=wages!

Thanks. Just checked the last match and the team seems to be the first team again. They were missing the top scorer Oliveira though.

Gamblan · 05-12-13, 08:46 AM

Liking the look of that Malmo bet. They're usually good on the unders too

stemellor · 05-12-13, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by Gamblan

Liking the look of that Malmo bet. They're usually good on the unders too

Agreed. Thinking of adding 1u to the under as well.

BrianKay · 05-12-13, 12:28 PM

Bad luck on Malmo...lost and a lot of goals!

BrianKay · 05-12-13, 12:30 PM

Taking a beating...Sunday is a day to fade your own plays, LOL!

stemellor · 05-12-13, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by BrianKay

Bad luck on Malmo...lost and a lot of goals!

Luckily I didn't play the under in the end. Strange game. Malmo were 2-1 ahead, Djurgarden had a man sent off and then the next time I checked they were winning!

Gamblan · 05-12-13, 12:34 PM

For some reason I had a bad feeling about this game in my gut, stayed away from it. Very surprised they lost though

stemellor · 05-12-13, 12:45 PM

Finished today -0.1u down, which is obviously disappointing after a good win on the MLS first thing.

Overall record 19.5-17.5-2. +10.6u

stemellor · 05-12-13, 12:55 PM

13 May

Argentina - River Plate vs All Boys:

River Plate haven't been in the greatest form of late, but I'm backing them to get back to winning ways tonight. All Boys generally struggle away from home and River need a win to keep pushing for the league.

Risking to win 2u @ odds of 1.833 on Pinny. River Plate ML.

Pan43 · 05-12-13, 01:06 PM

let's get the profit for today! BOL !

stemellor · 05-12-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by stemellor

Argentina - River Plate vs All Boys:

River Plate haven't been in the greatest form of late, but I'm backing them to get back to winning ways tonight. All Boys generally struggle away from home and River need a win to keep pushing for the league.

Risking to win 2u @ odds of 1.833 on Pinny. River Plate ML.

Also adding the 2 picks below. All 3 jumped straight out as obvious value picks, so hopefully this is a good omen.

Switzerland Challenge League - Aarau vs Locarno
I was on Aarau as they won 6-0 in their last game and they need to push on to consolidate their promotion place. Locarno are confirmed bottom and are getting battered. Biel Bienne who Aarua bet 6-0 in the last game recently bet Locarno 4-0.

I have Aarau as 3-0 winners here, so I'm taking Pinnys odds below:

Aarau -2 @ 1.925. Risking to win 2u.

Sweden - Helsingborg vs Hacken
Helsingborg have made a great start winning the last 4 games and sitting second in the league.
Hacken are 7th and have lost their last 2 games away from home.

It is the start of the season in Sweden so playing this quite small today as the form hasn't had time to settle yet, as I found out today with the Djurgarden vs Malmo result. Still, these odds represent great value based on recent form and head 2 head results.

Taken Helsingborg -0.5 @ 1.746 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

Johndrama · 05-12-13, 02:27 PM

thinking of tailing the swiss play tomorrow, but will procede with caution, mondays have been brutal on me. Wanted to tail your mls game yesterday but you always pick leagues that have treated me so bad for so long. I'm one game from banning myself from the argentina leagues, as for the swedes...I only liked the superattan when osters was in them. The big league wasnt so good on me, shit like malmo today happened to me more than it should. But ofc bol, everyone has their leagues, dont change what works

Gamblan · 05-12-13, 08:40 PM

I am also gonna back Helsingborg looks like good value for the win and Hacken were very disappointing in the last match I watched against Brommapojkarna, who have just been promoted, compared to last season. May potentially tail the Swiss bet as well thanks

ps congrats on river plate bet wish I saw it in time

Tenver · 05-13-13, 02:13 AM

Tailing Helsingborg. Seems to be the team to take it.

stemellor · 05-13-13, 04:31 AM

Thanks all. Good start so far, let's hope we all make some nice profit today.

stemellor · 05-13-13, 04:42 AM

Tailing Tenver's pick as well on the Crystal Palave vs Brighton game. I've taken 1u on o2.25 goals.

Palace need to attack and score 2 goals, so this should make the game more open than the last. Value is definitely in the over here, which is the side we want to be playing.

Vaughany · 05-13-13, 07:32 AM

Palace missing top scorer Murray (30 goals) though

stemellor · 05-13-13, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Palace missing top scorer Murray (30 goals) though

Ah, good info. This might change things then.

Bought myself out of this as I can't trust Palace to score without Murray.

stemellor · 05-13-13, 08:16 AM

14 May

Just had a quick look at the EPL odds for tomorrow and have sorted a play early.

EPL - Arsenal vs Wigan:
I genuinely thought the line would be -0.5 on the handicap. It's currently on Pinny at 1.971 both sides of 1.5.
I can understand why the line has been set here as Arsenal are well rested and certainly have the quality to put Wigan to the sword on Tuesday.

I just can't believe Wigan are going to lie down and die at the Emirates though. They have a lot of injuries and have played twice since Arsenal have. Even with the above, Wigan have a genuine team spirit and whilst I think Arsenal will do enough I can see a scrappy game with a late Arsenal winner. With all that is at stake for Arsenal (Champions League qualification) I can see them being nervous as they know they effectively have to win this game or their local rivals will take the last CL spot.

Taken Wigan +1.5 @ 1.971 on Pinny for 1u.