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Oregon/Kansas
This line opened between the numbers, a tick shy of the forecast, and hasn’t really moved. The Total opened higher than the numbers and has moved toward the forecast.
Oregon vs. Kansas has naturally brought the Over hype combined with a Saturday of March Madness Over hype to get the high opener and despite high public pressure, the line has moved toward more prevailing, cooler heads. The Over pressure here will be some of the heaviest, non-market moving, unsophisticated money that we’ve seen at one time. There’s no reason to conclude that money will automatically be wrong, but it is worth noting that it eclipses some sharp Under players (well, sort of, as the line did move down a point).
There is no trading bet to press the forecast Under just yet, it’s a thorny bush for sure.
The line is pretty sharp here as far as the books getting what they may want ATS. It hasn’t moved much despite public pressure on the favorite.
In fact, the line not wanting to sit at 7 points contributes to some of the metrics seeking an upset that I was talking about yesterday. With the scent thrown a bit, we may see Oregon knock off Kansas. As it stands, that would indeed satisfy some short term indicators.
We are reaching a point where relevant metrics start adding together to create less of an advantage and more of a gamble both short and long term. As you can see in the 7 point forecast, the market is getting sharper. Indeed, I can see in many short term metrics much of the same.
In a give and take market, sharp analysts often seek that settling behavior and others along the path of learning begin to as well. Along that path are many pitfalls. Oregon could be a play tonight, but I am not pulling the trigger yet. I can see money movement towards Oregon that exploits, among other things, chase type betting behavior revolving around settling the market and this being added to other signals sure does make it look like Oregon is a pitfall.
I’ve said before the better handicappers aren’t the math guys with psychology classes, they are the psychology guys who minored in math.
We still have time. The first game is naturally just playing to the spread so it may be best to take that time.
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It is definitely a game of halves Cashflow.Comment -
Never underestimate the importance of psychology. Omedo mentioned motivations a while back, but I have to ask.
What's more important at beating these markets, the motivations of the athletes or the predictable motivations of the marketplace participants?
It's not the fact that we are all different that is so amazing, and exploitable by the markets. It's the similarities, the ways we are all the same in behavior and reaction to input that's both amazing and exploited by the markets.
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ZAGS BABY
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The forecasts are 6-2-1 against the spread and 6-2 against the moneylines since Thursday.
And Grapes picks the only team to lose both...UCLA.
The forecast was right against the spread, moneyline and Totals for Gonzaga/Xavier, now it predicts Kansas and the Under.
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Hesitantly took the over 157 in the Kansas matchupComment -
Ugly start with your typical vanilla offensive play style that all college teams wash, rinse, and repeatComment -
South Carolina/Florida
The sharp forecast has South Carolina beating Florida 69-68. The public gauge has Florida winning 72-67.
The line with opened early with Florida -3 and hasn’t moved much. The Total opened a little low and has ticked toward the forecast.
I can see pressure on Florida that helps counter the sharp forecast and public sentiment.
I have to run out here but the quick thought is that South Carolina does not get the win here. In fact, I think and metrics indicate that both favorites will probably win and cover today.
Metrics indicate passing on pressing the forecast upset and some lead to a Florida bet. Florida won the last game by 1 point, pushing the close and failing to cover the -1.5 opener.
Could they do it again to the bettors today with a win and no cover? I think it’s reasonable but with the settlement with Oregon last night it’s best to let this money flow.
I’m still a little bothered that this thread didn’t get that Oregon upset posted.
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I picked up Florida -122 over South Carolina LIVE.
Again, market metrics indicate both favorites winning today.
Good Luck
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NC/Kentucky
The sharp forecast has North Carolina beating Kentucky 77-73. The public gauge says Kentucky wins 83-80.
The line opened with NC -3 and moved away from the forecast despite the appearance of public tickets on NC. I believe the books are trying to give the appearance of what they call reverse line movement on this line.
This is a highly public game and many call it the Championship game anyway. In a sense, no matter how high the Total is set the public will take the Over. The books know this and while they opened between the numbers early, the line had to move higher, toward the gauge. Further there are multiple pressures on the Over from different recent performance metrics.
Remember this?
That line did tick back up to 158 and the game went Under, taking down that unsophisticated stack while paying some sharper groups.
This game shows to stack the same unsophisticated type money but this time some of those successful sharp total players are joining them with the Over. When it all comes together it isn’t the same type of public pressure as yesterday, but it has been enhanced with these other players. The forecast only shows 150 points.
That’s how the money is split. I would exercise caution on the Over as the public doesn’t have to get it back here, they can lose again. The books may be acknowledging the sharp forecast with the early lower opener, but they knew Over money would be coming in and that line jump of 5 points is a lot.
On the other hand, any type of line analysis aside, paying the Over here is a very natural give and take with sharper groups getting both. I think the first game with SC and Florida may present as an Over and if it does, we could see a move toward the Under in this second game.
The play at that point would be the Over but that line becomes very tight to bet into. The metrics indicate a lean toward the Over, but it may not be to the point of countering the forecast.
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At this point, I think the line move towards Kentucky is designed to tip action to Kentucky but it is premature. There is still uncertainty in the first game and that influences the flow of money from several different aspects.
This is a high volume game for sure and there is plenty of action on both sides. There is no major settlement to be had; that was last night.
Current gameplay also shows money tipping toward Kentucky as well. This may result in metrics that indicate a North Carolina win and even cover the spread bet.
I am still watching and the conclusions are not solidified, they are still developing as information becomes available.
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In a fairly natural give and take, of course it wasn't Kansas.
Now the forecast was right against the spread, moneyline, and Totals for South Carolina/Florida and it predicts North Carolina and the Under.
This is market design and is very likely to lead to a North Carolina win, bouncing what we saw with Kansas.
These lines are fairly settled and the market may simply be resting with that initial move toward Kentucky.
The Over is moving higher and I think that line is too high take the Over and does represent a long term advantage at 162 for the Under.
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I picked up North Carolina -2 (-105) and -140 over Kentucky.
While I am not seeing the line movements I expected and things if anything, are showing pressure differently, I went ahead with these North Carolina numbers in the trading account.
At this point I am passing on pressing the forecast with UNDER 162 points.
Good Luck
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Outside of that n ad 2nd half last night I been doing well on nm arch , adness , college sports in not my area a of expertise but im rolling so far inthe tournamentComment -
Gl kvbComment -
I took the over 161 personallyComment -
Good Luck with the Over, a tough line to buy into for sure.
It's tough to write about everything in the markets but I will point attention to the solid favorite winning in the Golf brackets where you may see some give and take. With the favorite winning there is it a wonder that we see an upset in the first NCAA game? Of course there is so much more to the picture, but it is a good example.
This also does not bode well for my NC bet. Further, I may have been overestimating the weight of the SC victory when making that last bet.
I was going to suggest some more NC when Kentucky takes the lead, but NC took the lead.
Not seeing the anticipated movement and my team is out early? It's already shark time...lol.
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Damn they contesting those "easy" inside looks
left a lot of points out there already........Comment -
Wow both teams just shit all over the over spread in those last 3 minutes
that changed everything, no more betting overs on these teenagersComment -
Pace terrible for the Over. Of course, we could always see OVERtime, but at the recent pace, it won't matter.
I was considering striking at NC again, but if it stays Under, then Kentucky's got the cover, and possibly the win too.
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I would be almost surprised to see the forecasts successful today, Sunday, with all Spreads, moneylines, and Totals. If NC covers in an Under, that's what will happen.
I can't help but think something will give.
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"Ohh no, not soccer again..."
England - League Two
Accrington vs Cambridge Utd
My sharp forecast gives Accrington 1,20 vs Cambridge Utd 0,88 giving a total of 2,08.
The numbers opened on 18 of Feb
ML: 2,27 - 3.40 - 3.09
Total 2,5: 1,90 - 1,90
For the money line, the early numbers get an hit and go as high as 2,64 on the first day.
Since then, they move down slowly till they get today on the same price than the opening. staying on 2,25 for the win, 3,40 for the draw but since the juice went down, they increased the away win to 3,48 and 3,58 at pinnacle, the highest number available.
The Asian Handicap stays on +0,25 @ 1,93 - 1,99.
The total 2,5 is right now @ over 2,15 - 1,79 under
But the thing that intrigues me is the movement from the openers.
The first day reaction goes about right with my numbers, but after that its strange. Any thoughts?
I don't have any numbers on public gauge, probably that's the piece that completes the puzzle.
Last edited by omedo; 03-27-17, 02:06 PM.Comment -
man that critter looking white boy misses that 20 foot jumper that play cashes in overtime
broke even last night
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