Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

...I’m waiting to see where the chips and passing on what would be a West Virginia moneyline bet in the trading account...

...Gonzaga might play this one closer than some think but as far as trading goes I think we need to see more...

MTSU/Butler
...I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late move back to -3 or so on the way to a Butler smashing...

...While I think it’s the favorites in Butler and Zona...

...How Butler gets this I don't know, but it's that kind of market, I think. Stick with the forecast...

Stick with the forecast means don’t counter and buy Butler, just pass.

Above are parts of my analyses today. One game was a pure pass with Virginia and Florida and no opinion. The other games were successfully traded earlier and are not included. The rest of the games are mentioned above as passes, but you can see the analyses.

Money flowed today and I had the moneyflow parlay correct. The problem is that it is pending Purdue.

Did I read the day that well? If I had a parlay on how I thought each game would go with a certain flow of money, then I would be pending Purdue with a decent payout coming.

So can Purdue hang on? They carry a heavy burden I assure you.

[KVB]

Iowa St. gets it to a 1 point game with 4:30 to go.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

...So can Purdue hang on? They carry a heavy burden I assure you...

Perhaps it's Iowa State who carries the burden, it seems a lot of the marketplace needs them to pull through.

[KVB]

Iowa State let a lot of people down tonight!

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

Right

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

So today looked like a good day in thread, with analysis and plays. But look at these results...

For Saturday the forecast succeeded with Xavier against the spread and Gonzaga against the moneyline.

All other spread, moneyline and Total forecasts failed against the market.

Every Total failed, and I knew early something wasn't right, and that last Total in Iowa St./Purdue hitting 156 and going Over the 154.5 was exceptionally dirty.

This was a particularly cold day for many metrics as well. Tomorrow should see an interesting bounce in many of them.

I was fortunate to get out of this day unscathed.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

#8 I guess.

#4 not bad though.

I would take #7 too.

#11? Why the penetrate not?

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Taking a shower then busting a mega nut inside samantha

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Then playing toothfairy and putting money underneath jordyn and her little cousins pillows
she lost the tooth but he threw a fit when he found out the toothfairy wouldnt leave him anything

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Then everyone will be asleep and ill be up alone , ill then take my vitamins for the nerve damage
And spend the rest of the night contemplating suicide in between eating bowls of lucky charms

[KVB]

Did you just put suicide and lucky charms in the same sentence?

[KVB]

[smokenjoke]

contemplating suicide in between eating bowls of lucky charms

1st pu$$y, then up all night to think suicide¿¿¿
WTF¿
Fàg!!!

[KVB]

Here are forecasts for the NIT games...

Belmont 75, Georgia Tech 62

Iowa 76, TCU 71

Oakland 76, Richmond 68



I know right? From the lucky charm to the Lucky Charms and Cash still having trouble snapping back.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Michigan beats Louisville 77-67. The public gauge has Michigan winning 72-71.

The line opened with Louisville favored and has moved away from the forecast. This time the Total opened lower than the numbers and moved toward the forecast. There is pressure on the Under from some bettors but the Public still likes those Overs in exuberance. The total market may be righting itself a bit from yesterday.

The line has moved up on heavy pressure for Louisville to bounce back and has moved despite a popular Michigan team.

There are reasons for and against both teams and metrics say pass for a trade.

This game begins the flow of money in a day where forces are lined up to get money flowing constantly. Because of that moneyflow structure, we may see even more of a misleading market. Perhaps we can take advantage of how they play it again.

This will be a difficult day to trade and I will try to weed out the traps and thorns to get to the rose.

[KVB]

If I had to lean a certain way this first game I would think Michigan is the easier play and is pulling money off of that pressure on Louisville to cover.

That, and the line move, could lead to a Louisville moneyline bet.

But alas, let's have some patience.

[KVB]

Wichita St/Kentucky

The sharp forecast says Wichita beats Kentucky 75-67. The public gauge has Kentucky winning 78-76.

The line opened a small Kentucky favorite with the gauge and has moved away from my line. The Total opened at the gauge and has moved toward my line.

Again the Total markets starting to look like they have been but this time the spreads are so far moving away from the forecast in almost every game. It’s something to notice considering the Total markets yesterday.

Of course there is public pressure on Kentucky and that line feels low. The public believes in Kentucky and haven’t seemed to sell them out with excessive moneyline bets.

The marketplace could easily be overlooking Wichita here and evidence from the SEC conference shows that this upset in general could be getting overlooked as bettors look towards the other games and knowledgeable parlay builders may be using the Kentucky favorite to balance other upsets.

I’m looking at Wichita here, but there is still plenty of time.

[KVB]

I just saw quite the nip slip in that drink alone video as well.

[KVB]

Charley Hoffman, the golfer I said would tease the market and bought to win the first round for 100-1, is tied for first entering today.

I still think he's teasing the market. I almost picked him to win at 100-1 as well, just to show how he loses.

That was part of the story but Hoops has been taking time.

Like I said, we're getting closer in golf. If Hoffman wins at 100-1, I apologize to this thread for not pushing it like I should have.

[KVB]

Wichita St/Kentucky

The sharp forecast says Wichita beats Kentucky 75-67. The public gauge has Kentucky winning 78-76...

...this time the spreads are so far moving away from the forecast in almost every game. It’s something to notice considering the Total markets yesterday...

That line starting to comeback down toward the forecast. I'm opting to pass here for a trade. I like Wichita but can see money being steered. It's too early to say if it's being stacked or settled, for lack of a better way to put it.

That is such a low line for Kentucky it's almost ridiculous. With Zona and Butler handling the business there, I see a problem for Kentucky.

That bodes well for the forecast.

[KVB]

Already the forecast has bounced from yesterday and hit a moneyline upset. The total forecast was successful against the open for the OVER but the line moved to 142.5.

The game ended at 142.

It's a tight market out there and even those with winning plays may find themselves with losing bets.

[KVB]

Michigan St/Kansas

The sharp forecast says Kansas beats Michigan St. 74-69. The public gauge has Kansas winning 78-71.

The line opened just above the gauge and has come down toward my line. The Total opened between the numbers and has moved away from my line. There is public pressure on the Over but I don’t see how it overshadows organic pressure from market watchers. This Total is more split than I think it looks and the market could be hiding the Under here with that movement.

In fact, I may be looking to press the forecast and counter the movement with an Under trade.

The spread is actually pretty sharp despite the 1 point movement from 8.5 to 7.5 in the market. Both teams are highly visible public teams and the volume should be high here. I think the books opened a little high with that cushion to move downward but are moving money to both sides of this bet. The line move may be to commit some groups, which would lead to a loss for them.

We need to see some settlement in the current game before making a decision here. The forecast calls for Michigan State to cover but Kansas to win.

This could be the end result here. In general, when money is managing to flow to both sides, with already such high volume, we see a pass. This isn’t looking like a settlement type game, but more of a game to continue a flow of money.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Arkansas/South Carolina

The sharp forecast has North Carolina beating Arkansas 76-69. The public gauge say NC wins 83-78.

The line opened high in this game and has moved away from the numbers. The Total opened near the gauge and has also moved away from the forecast. The Total situation seems a bit like the last write up in that it has moved upward on public pressure despite some sharp money taking the Under.

Everything comes in two’s and this Total market remains difficult to gain the “short term” edge.

The public was picking up NC no matter what and the high opener helps balance this action from strong and sharp support on the Underdog.

...The marketplace could easily be overlooking Wichita here and evidence from the SEC conference shows that this upset in general could be getting overlooked as bettors look towards the other games and knowledgeable parlay builders may be using the Kentucky favorite to balance other upsets...

Arkansas is one of those upsets I think bettors may have been looking ahead to see. While there is a strong underdog and even upset metric here, this could be a trap. This line is too high.

Let’s see if Wichita can get the job done. This game doesn’t start until later and other relevant games will be in play beforehand.

[KVB]

Michigan St/Kansas

The sharp forecast says Kansas beats Michigan St. 74-69. The public gauge has Kansas winning 78-71....

We need to see some settlement in the current game before making a decision here...

If Kentucky starts to cover we will see money driven towards Kansas to help support a falling Kansas line. Bettors will see some "value" at -7.5 and should pick up on it. This is so glaring that the reverse may actually happen as bettors try to outsmart the market and hit underdog steam.

The line movement should be telling, but it may also be deceiving.

...I think the books opened a little high with that cushion to move downward but are moving money to both sides of this bet.

...In general, when money is managing to flow to both sides, with already such high volume, we see a pass. This isn’t looking like a settlement type game, but more of a game to continue a flow of money...

I just gave yet more signals that money is going to both sides of this spread.

For what it’s worth and as an example, Sports Insights shows the percentage of tickets bet on the spread to be 50-50.

Does that make sense? Kansas may get this one, but I think acting on results of the earlier games is what the market wants and I will likely not oblige.

[KVB]

Arkansas/South Carolina

The sharp forecast has North Carolina beating Arkansas 76-69. The public gauge say NC wins 83-78..

Obviously that's supposed to say North Carolina.

[KVB]

If Kentucky starts to cover we will see money driven towards Kansas to help support a falling Kansas line. Bettors will see some "value" at -7.5 and should pick up on it...

The line is already pressing back towards -8.

Michigan St/Kansas...
The spread is actually pretty sharp despite the 1 point movement from 8.5 to 7.5 in the market...

I wrote this as the line was pressuring towards -7. Now it's pressuring -8. See what a close Wichita game can do, and then what a 7-0 spurt by Kentucky can do?

All in real time.

Sharp.

[KVB]

Charley Hoffman lost his lead and is 3 over par today.

He teased and failed as predicted, we are getting closer.

[KVB]

Michigan St/Kansas

The sharp forecast says Kansas beats Michigan St. 74-69. The public gauge has Kansas winning 78-71...

In fact, I may be looking to press the forecast and counter the movement with an Under trade...

I picked up UNDER 149 for Michigan St. vs. Kansas.

Metrics say counter the movement and the forecast agrees with an Under here.

Good Luck

[KVB]

The first game today had a total over the open and under the close. Kentucky covered the early opener but the immediate jump to -3.5, trade to -4, and close at -3.5 was too much for them to cover.

The market is on it's heels and a bit scared to commit. Gamblers just betting the games, numbers available, and what they "like" tend to show that they are gamblers in these environments.

The books reap the benefit of the action.