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Tonight’s game:A lot of alignment on my forecasts for tonight's Green Bay vs. Minnesota game. Here are three key predictions who's origins are described in this post...
In the same order as that post...
1. Unsophisticated...Minn wins 23-20.
2. Sharpest year to year, long term...Minnesota wins 24-17
3. More sophisticated...Minnesota wins with 20 or 17 (I see either score with equal enough probability), to Green Bay's 14 points.
As you can see, Minnesota wins in all three outputs but the line has moved upward with heavy Green Bay pressure. It's time for some of those predictions to pay off and this is one of the rare times that I will actually pick up a triggered play with so much alignment. I'm countering that pressure in the market with Minnesota +2.5 (-106) over Green Bay...
1. Unsophisticated…Chicago wins 27-24.
2. Sharp year to year… 31-31 tie, with a raw score giving Chicago the edge.
3. More sophisticated… Chicago wins 21-17.
Given the public debacle that entailed last night’s game, these numbers are essentially far too empowered over the short term. With a tie predicted in my sharper forecast, a buy would be triggered at Philly +3.5.
I think we can see that the books are getting some Chicago play but just don’t want to pull off of the 3. Many sharp bettors will be sidelined tonight unless we see 3.5 and I could see an essential giving back from some of last night’s game for the rest of the Chicago bettors.
If anything, sharper Philly money may be on the money line at some prices. We could see Chicago winning on the money line but only by 3 points, not paying that money line spread; it’s that kind of night.
I am passing on the Philly money line and will reconsider the spread if it reaches +3.5. My guess is we see 3.5 reported from many houses, but at kick off time. This should allow some time for the +3 to sit at plus money for same late bets. If true, that may be another good sign for Philly.
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No Bears for me, and I'm not sure we're going to get a look at 3.5 for Philly tonight...it will just trigger too much of the wrong kind of buying.
Here are my predictions in ass format...
The one on the left is a public gauge, the middle uses a lot of percentages and stacks them well, and the one on the right represents a sharp, year to year output...
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Lil white asses bouncin.
Love it!Comment -
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time to buy bondsComment -
Saw Jmon hit with Philly last night. I hope all is well good sir.
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KVB, what do you think of the over 57 in the GT/Clemson game?
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Here’s what I have so far but it may not say much as we still don’t even have 4 games under our belt.
That sort of public sense, mostly non predictive line I create gauges a few things and has Clemson winning 31-21. That’s only 52 points and note that the line opened early at 53.5.
As we sharpen the forecast we get Clemson winning the game 42-17 and we’ve seen the line move towards that forecast. An offshore book put up the 53.5 but it was gobbled up quickly and most houses opened around 57.
That book may have been trying to cater to a lower scoring crowd with that open, after all both defenses haven’t given up too much and all three Clemson games failed to reach the 62 plus lines that have been dealt while GTech’s defense caused the same issues with its mid-40 lines.
But that’s a pretty weak assumption as the competition has been some out of conference games and is difficult to gauge. Also with the exception of week 1, the teams have done their part in getting some points. The only significant information there is about Clemson (a top ranked team) and the fact that they have three consecutive UNDERs. Remember streak riders and streak breakers from the CFL thread Jay? Well a streak has developed and they will come into play.
Perhaps the book knowingly opened this line low with the intention of drawing action on the OVER and raising that line to 57, maybe it settled there and other books felt safe to open there. Maybe that first book took a position, without a Pinny lead, even if only to establish a “feel” for the market.
But what kind of position can the book take with early opening low limits? As far as I can tell, less than a 57 total was out there for a few hours. Why? Trades at those levels were obvious for the OVER but not very meaningful. So why post it?Comment -
Intermission...
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What we have is a reporting book reporting early with 53.5. This gets everywhere. Yet all we see is 57, everywhere. This is intentional and gives the general sense that this line has been bought up to 57. If the line continues to grow it looks even more dramatic.
But everyone else seems to have picked up the line at 57, and still saw some upward pressure. NCAAF scores vary widely and there are so many that key numbers at high points aren’t too influential. That said, you will likely see lines having a little more difficulty coming on and off of 59…which happens to be my forecast.
So I expect this line sit around these 57 levels, maybe bouncing up to 58.5 and back down to generate action. If, come game time, we see a surge to 59 and higher I would be tempted to counter that pressure with an UNDER as I would see the books finalizing their “sale” of the OVER and sucking all those who seek it with unsophisticated methods.
A strong portion of market moving money that will enter the market this early in the season will pass at these levels and generating action from the “public” is a likely strategy as value is evaporating, if it was ever there to begin with.
But if the line holds steadier at 57, not going out of its way to generate action, and then suddenly pops to 59 or more, then it could be a sign that the markets are not reflecting the pressure in the line. This wouldn’t be “selling” the OVER; this would be more like hiding it until the last minute.
Because of where I see different pressures coming from, I am more inclined to think it is the first case and will look for the expected movement; and with these give and take markets, and the techniques I described above, this game could provide more info by watching that could lead to future opportunities.
After all, it’s the first game of a long weekend schedule and trying to outsmart the books, especially when they are trying to generate action, is a dangerous business.
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Good to see JMon!
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JMoner!!!
You're out of practice with a double post palComment -
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Dude, laughing my ass off here. That guy with the rifle...
Aw fuk it, I'm going take two cases of beer, not one...
If I were that guy, which I am not, I would have started to walk to the counter at least, like I was going to pay, then ran.
Lmao at Gauchojake's now slogan...
Notice how that Clemson GTech line has been generating action, a little back and forth. It even hit 59 and came off. There are pressures on that OVER and starting to stink like a bad play.
I'd like to get into the upset potential here and but also why it could be a bad bet but it has to wait.
I had one of those treatments in my neck this morning, burning some nerves.
Hopefully this time I may be avoiding some of those nasty nerve damage side effects.
Speaking of which, how you feeling CashFlow?
Jmon, cheers pal. Are you in the shop lately? I hope so.
Have you seen this?...
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