president futures are paying big

[JohnGalt2341]

If you like betting states, Virginia's governor mandated use of paper ballots to tally votes - if anyone recalls in 2020, Virginia was trending Trump and then at the last second- WHAP, a few random tranches of Biden votes appear at the eleventh hour and VA went blue, there's nothing to see, so there's nothing to discuss ... but they knew what happened.

Youngkin: We will use 100% paper ballots with a strict chain of custody. We use counting machines, not voting machines, that are tested prior to every election and never connected to the internet. We do not mass mail ballots. We monitor our drop boxes 24/7,"


VA will be red as an apple.

Since it was me that you were replying to when you left the post above in August, how about we make a friendly bet on whether or not "VA will be red as an apple." Here's the bet I propose.. if Trump wins Virginia, you get to choose the message I have under my name for an entire month. But if Harris wins Virginia, I get to choose the message you have under your name for an entire month. Deal???

[lakerboy]

How much have you bet on Arizona? The line keeps going up. It's +215 now at bet online. It was much lower a few weeks ago. Odds are going down for Trump in States like Minnesota and new Hampshire that are considered reliable or pretty much lock democratic states. Minnesota went to+700 from +1000 last few days. Might not win obviously but those are big moves.

IMO the only three swing states Harris has any shot are

Michigan
Nevada
Pennsylvania

She isn't winning any of the other 4.

Trump has a shot at the electoral college as well. That was +500 months ago and now +200.

Minnesota is+350 now.
Electoral college is +150.

[JohnGalt2341]

Minnesota is+350 now.
Electoral college is +150.

Do you mean popular vote?

[DwightShrute]

Trump -190 at BM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Good boy! ������ <a href="https://t.co/eDCxFoe3PA">pic.twitter.com/eDCxFoe3PA</a></p>&mdash; Clown World ™ �� (@ClownWorld_) <a href="https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1850629805668253847?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 27, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[lakerboy]

Do you mean popular vote?

Yes.

[ByeShea]

Since it was me that you were replying to when you left the post above in August, how about we make a friendly bet on whether or not "VA will be red as an apple." Here's the bet I propose.. if Trump wins Virginia, you get to choose the message I have under my name for an entire month. But if Harris wins Virginia, I get to choose the message you have under your name for an entire month. Deal???

Deal.

Don't make mine too sexy. I already have a number of SBR posters in PMs inviting me to go camping, "guys only" style.

[raiders72001]

Pinny -187
BOL -190. They say they are taking more bets on the election than the Super Bowl.

Poly 66/34

AZ 74/26
GA 74/26
NC 71/29
NV 64/36
PA 62/39
WI 59/41
MI 54/48

RCP (average of 14 polls) - Trump +0.1 Nationally

[JohnGalt2341]

Hmm...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The polls are so tricky. I always wonder about bias that is not correctly accounted for.

In theory election results should be a lot more predictable than a sporting event. How many people are changing their vote between Now and Election Day?

There is some element of Voter Turnout. But that should be minor.

Can anyone make a case today for Harris at a Dog price?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Harris is now +109 to win the Popular vote. That price surprises me. At a minimum, that would flip recent DEM history.

[JohnGalt2341]

Harris is now +109 to win the Popular vote. That price surprises me. At a minimum, that would flip recent DEM history.

Where?????? I will load up on this at this price!!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Where?????? I will load up on this at this price!!!

John, mea culpa. I misread the board. +109 was for a state win.

I now see that Harris is still -190 to win the popular. Sorry for my mis-read.

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="da" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NEW?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#N EW</a> FINAL NATIONAL poll<br><br>�� Trump: 50% (+3)<br>�� Harris: 47%<br><br>AtlasIntel | 10/25-29 | N=3,032LV</p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1851341831142777088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 29, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans out-requested Democrats for mail-in ballots again.<br><br>�� REP: +47,844<br>�� DEM: +43,443<br><br>They also only trailed Democrats in returns by just 9,000 ballots:<br>�� DEM: +56,040<br>�� REP: +47,139<br><br>�� DEM firewall: 381,095 [+8,901 over the weekend]<br><br>Firewall…</p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1850932565345009771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 28, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[dante1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans out-requested Democrats for mail-in ballots again.<br><br>�� REP: +47,844<br>�� DEM: +43,443<br><br>They also only trailed Democrats in returns by just 9,000 ballots:<br>�� DEM: +56,040<br>�� REP: +47,139<br><br>�� DEM firewall: 381,095 [+8,901 over the weekend]<br><br>Firewall…</p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1850932565345009771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 28, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Eric Daugherty a far right crazy and virtually every other comment he makes is either a lie or a misrepresentation. And our mr Dwight, who never worked a day, didn't finish HS, and has posted over one hundred thousand lies and BS is quoting him. Naturally two idiots, three if you count Trump. And I can easily prove mr dwight never finished HS with a few very simple 10th grade questions. He won't answer one correctly without internet help--not one.

Decades of doing nothing but BS and lies, imagine that. Imagine spending your entire life posting on a ridiculous site and be proud of it. MY GOD. Nearly 25 years of BS and lies, not one redeeming quality.

[DwightShrute]

Eric Daugherty a far right crazy and virtually every other comment he makes is either a lie or a misrepresentation. And our mr Dwight, who never worked a day, didn't finish HS, and has posted over one hundred thousand lies and BS is quoting him. Naturally two idiots, three if you count Trump. And I can easily prove mr dwight never finished HS with a few very simple 10th grade questions. He won't answer one correctly without internet help--not one.

Decades of doing nothing but BS and lies, imagine that. Imagine spending your entire life posting on a ridiculous site and be proud of it. MY GOD. Nearly 25 years of BS and lies, not one redeeming quality.

[dante1]

Trump, using vulgarity as usual

Remember my friends this is the same traitor who pleaded with his followers to march to the capital with this "you never take back our country with weakness". that followed with Jan 6th, nearly 200 officers injured. That is Trump, a criminal who will go to prison when he loses.

[Itsamazing777]

Trump, using vulgarity as usual

Remember my friends this is the same traitor who pleaded with his followers to march to the capital with this "you never take back our country with weakness". that followed with Jan 6th, nearly 200 officers injured. That is Trump, a criminal who will go to prison when he loses.

give it up already. The betting market has Trump an overwhelming favourite

[dante1]

You know what is sad, truly sad and proves his intellect or lack of. Within 11 minutes he replied which obviously means that idiot, the uneducated oof, that near human who never once in his lifetime has contributed to society in any way or manner. He is content to spend nearly every minute in a vain attempt to impress people who know he is a complete and total idiot.

That my friends is a complete waste of human junk material.

[dante1]

go on dwightie, defend yourself, I will ridicule you again in about 3 or 4 months when you will have accumulated another few thousand ridiculous and worthless comments.

good luck you imbecile

[Itsamazing777]

classic. It never gets old. What a loser that guy is

[DwightShrute]

I will embarrass myself again in about 3 or 4 months when I have completed another round of my transitioning to womanhood.

good luck you,

Imbecile

good luck buddy


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NEW?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#N EW</a> 2024 election forecast update - J.L. Partners<br><br>�� Trump: 68.5%<br>�� Harris: 31.3% <a href="https://t.co/1rf2H9Ig0L">pic.twitter.com/1rf2H9Ig0L</a></p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1851390964880773554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 29, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">�� BREAKING: Donald Trump has just set another career high, leading the popular vote by half-a-point with under 1 week until the election.<br><br>He was nowhere NEAR this in 2020 or 2016. <a href="https://t.co/EPL5aKIMc1">pic.twitter.com/EPL5aKIMc1</a></p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1851389047098188253?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 29, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[k13]

How high do we think this line gets LIVE?

[JohnGalt2341]

The polls are so tricky. I always wonder about bias that is not correctly accounted for.

In theory election results should be a lot more predictable than a sporting event. How many people are changing their vote between Now and Election Day?

There is some element of Voter Turnout. But that should be minor.

Can anyone make a case today for Harris at a Dog price?

Just remember this...

"The bloom on the rose is oft not wet."

If I didn't think I could get a better price on KH on the evening of the election, I would bet on her right now in a heartbeat. I give her AT LEAST a 40% chance, MINIMUM!

Here's something else I would bet on... if KH should happen to win... I would bet at -10000 that Trump won't admit he lost, EVER. AND, I would bet at -300 that all hell will break loose, FAR FAR worse than what happened on January 6th.

You know what this means? It means there is pretty close to a 50% chance that there will be riots(probably much worse) in several parts of the country in the 2nd week of November. Let's hope I'm wrong about this.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

John, you've done a great job in this thread. I've said before:
*The DEM voter constituency has been built up over 20+ years.
...I have a hard time seeing that flipped. Many families just vote DEM (period).
...It's just about Trump winning the Electoral. And maybe Trump has figured that out better (than Harris).

Good Luck on your bets. And sorry that I mangled that quoted price (above).

[JohnGalt2341]

This is interesting to me...




This is at BetOnline btw. At the moment, KH is favored at BO in only 20 States(they are not counting DC in the above wager). Trump is favored in 30 States... but the odds are giving him only a 42.48% chance of winning more than 29.5.

There is definitely money to be made here somewhere...

[raiders72001]

Early voting by party affiliation

NV 40% Rep, 35% Dem
AZ 42% Rep, 35% Dem
NC 34% Rep, 33% Dem

PA 32% Rep, 58% Dem

[raiders72001]

I think Trump wins but the only worry is that more early voters are women. The abortion issue is the only thing that can stop Trump.

[raiders72001]

DraftKings Ontario

AZ -280 Not going out on a limb but I'm pounding this even at -280. Not available DK.
GA -250
NV -200
NC -225
PA -150
WI -125

MI -125 Harris

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2024/10/30/latest-2024-presidential-election-odds-donald-trump-kamala-harris/

[Slurry Pumper]

I don't know a lick about the polls or the betting markets, but I do know things when I see the democratic operation in action, and this is not a confident bunch. They have been even more off the rails than normal. If this was poker they would be marked with a tell on this hand. I think they planned for a get out the ballot operation and now they realize that it truly might be "too big to rig" at this point.

[RudyRuetigger]

I think Trump wins but the only worry is that more early voters are women. The abortion issue is the only thing that can stop Trump.

That's not the only thing

[raiders72001]

That's not the only thing

such as?

Economy, inflation, border, abortion and war are the only concerns if you look at cross tabs of the voting polls. The rest is just a tiny percentage.

[RudyRuetigger]

Trump rolls up to Wisconsin rally in a garbage truck

Fukkin love this guy

[JohnGalt2341]

DraftKings Ontario

AZ -280 Not going out on a limb but I'm pounding this even at -280. Not available DK.
GA -250
NV -200
NC -225
PA -150
WI -125

MI -125 Harris

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/202...kamala-harris/

What percent chance do you give Trump of winning AZ?

[k13]

Trump dropping hard on poly now.