president futures are paying big

[d2bets]

Did she have more turn over than Trump in his 4 years? To be clear I have know idea, just that Trump had a lot of turn over and most of them said not to vote for him.

Yeah, a large part of his administration and senior officials doesn't support him.
Esper, Mattis, Bolton, Kelley, Milley....notice a theme here.

[k13]

Funny stuff!

Here are the top 10 "Smartest" states according to World Population Review. You can use an alternative source if you wish, most of them are pretty similar. Next to the State name is the No-Vig % chance Trump has of winning that state according to Bovada(again you can use a different Book, most of them are pretty similar).

Top 10 Smartest U.S. States and Trump's chances of winning that State:

1. Massachusetts 8.94%
2. Connecticut 9.87%
3. Maryland 7.83%
4. Virginia 32.94%
5. Vermont 8.94%
6. New Hampshire 43.67%
7. New Jersey 17.35%
8. Colorado 15.63%
9. Minnesota 34.7%
10. Washington 8.52%

Notice a trend yet? Perhaps you don't, so here are the 10 Dumbest States and Trump's chances of winning these States.

1. West Virginia 93.69%
2. Mississippi 93.69%
3. Louisiana 92.17%
4. Arkansas 93.69%
5. Nevada 75.99%
6. New Mexico 29.41%(sorry Trump)
7. Oklahoma 92.17%
8. Alabama 94.98%
9. Texas 88.98%
10. South Carolina 93.69%

There you have it folks. Coincidence? I think not. If you don't trust my numbers, feel free to do your own research. If it wasn't for The Dunning Kruger Effect, Trump wouldn't have a chance in hell. People often vote for someone that they can identify with. The numbers above don't lie, and they SHOULD tell you exactly what is going on here.

I'll give you a trend.
Black people vote in the highest percentage for Democrats and they have the lowest IQs in the world.

[str]

[DwightShrute]

We would have to really quantify and qualify the definition of "moron" at that point. But I'm pretty sure I'd pass. I would have a difficult time thinking of a powerful person in the world more stupid than Donald Trump. If he doesn't qualify as a moron, then the definition of the word is too strict.

Ok maybe moron was a little harsh. Yes she was in her 20's when she slept with a 60-year married with kids politician to further her career. That doesn't make her a moron? No. When she dropped out of the race for president in 2020, she was polling at 1%. That doesn't make her a moron either. When she was appointed to the border czar, she only visited El Paso once in nearly 4 years, for an afternoon, which wasn't even close to a hotpot of the millions entering the country illegally. That does make her a moron? Well, some might say yes but OK let's agree that doesn't make her a moron. Does that make her incompetent as a civil servant? I think we can all agree it does. Should we elected incompetent people to Washington? I think we can all agree that we should NOT do that. Does that mean anyone should vote for her to be president? Of course not. Some might say that only a moron would.

Trump isn't moron.

This woman is a moron. Unless you can convince me otherwise.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This lady got schooled for saying she was going to vote for Kamala because she&#39;s &quot;black&quot; 🤣 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼<a href="https://t.co/fmHwMTMP4a">pic.twitter.com/fmHwMTMP4a</a></p>&mdash; Sara Rose 🇺🇸🌹 (@saras76) <a href="https://twitter.com/saras76/status/1816666163461427381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >July 26, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JohnGalt2341]

Ok maybe moron was a little harsh. Yes she was in her 20's when she slept with a 60-year married with kids politician to further her career. That doesn't make her a moron? No. When she dropped out of the race for president in 2020, she was polling at 1%. That doesn't make her a moron either. When she was appointed to the border czar, she only visited El Paso once in nearly 4 years, for an afternoon, which wasn't even close to a hotpot of the millions entering the country illegally. That does make her a moron? Well, some might say yes but OK let's agree that doesn't make her a moron. Does that make her incompetent as a civil servant? I think we can all agree it does. Should we elected incompetent people to Washington? I think we can all agree that we should NOT do that. Does that mean anyone should vote for her to be president? Of course not. Some might say that only a moron would.

Trump isn't moron.

This woman is a moron. Unless you can convince me otherwise.

I have 2 questions for you.

#1. What do you think Dr. Birx is thinking in the video below?

#2. Do you think Trump is being sarcastic in the video below?

[Optional]

#2. Do you think Trump is being sarcastic in the video below?

No no no. Trump never even said that. Dwight will explain it is just the media lying to us that Trump ever said injecting disinfectant was a good idea.

[DwightShrute]

I have 2 questions for you.

#1. What do you think Dr. Birx is thinking in the video below?

#2. Do you think Trump is being sarcastic in the video below?

Let's not play games. Think back to that week. Trump stood there for over an hour nearly everyday for days on end. He had several guests and who were doing their best to reassure people somehow. That included Trump. There was no real script after a few minutes. You couldn't say that the president was hiding in some basement. In fact, I remember he spent so much time with these information gatherings that many news outlets stopped carrying them live because of how long they were.

You take out one minute out of several hours and ask me to read her mind. For the record, no I cannot read minds. Everyone got shit wrong about Covid. Fauci, Dr. Birx, the CDC, and the list is a mile long. But Trump talking off the cuff or spitballing (whatever term you want to use) about using UV ray and disinfectants is the thing the unhinged Trump haters continue to grasp onto and seemingly will never let go. Surgeons/doctors use UV rays to kill certain cancers and disinfectants like iodine or iodophor, alcohol, and chlorhexidine gluconate. Trump was simply asking a question. He wasn't pretending anything else.

Oh and speaking of Dr. Birx, what do think she was thinking when ...
Dr. Deborah Birx is slammed for hypocrisy after she ignored her own Thanksgiving advice and traveled to her Delaware vacation home with three generations of her family from two different households

[JohnGalt2341]

I'll give you a trend.
Black people vote in the highest percentage for Democrats and they have the lowest IQs in the world.

#1. Do you have any data supporting your opinion
(IQ wise)? For all I know, you may be correct, but I'd like to see the data.

#2. Do you REALLY think any of the States listed as the "Smartest" are going to vote against Trump because of a high black voter turn out?

[d2bets]

After the assassination attempt, Trump looked almost unbeatable. But then he nominates JD Vance (lol), goes off the rails in his speech, and Biden steps aside. The race has done a 180. The train is down the tracks. Trump is going to lose and the whining and crying will be be epic. Younger voters that were unenthused will come out in droves now. Watch what happen when Taylor Swift and Beyonce collab to get out the vote. Trump's gonna break records as a two-time loser.

[k13]

#1. Do you have any data supporting your opinion
(IQ wise)? For all I know, you may be correct, but I'd like to see the data.

#2. Do you REALLY think any of the States listed as the "Smartest" are going to vote against Trump because of a high black voter turn out?

Google it.

But being smart or stupid has nothing to do with voting.
Jews vote for Democrats and they are at the other end of the spectrum.

But in Israel Jews wouldn't vote for Democrats the same way.

[DwightShrute]

After the assassination attempt, Trump looked almost unbeatable. But then he nominates JD Vance (lol), goes off the rails in his speech, and Biden steps aside. The race has done a 180. The train is down the tracks. Trump is going to lose and the whining and crying will be be epic. Younger voters that were unenthused will come out in droves now. Watch what happen when Taylor Swift and Beyonce collab to get out the vote. Trump's gonna break records as a two-time loser.

I suspect that Kamala will get another tiny bump after the convention. That should all get wiped out if Kamala debates Trump. She's in way over her head. She will never escape her disastrous border czar failure no matter how the MSM tries to distract people away from it.

If Taylor Swift and Beyonce do influence any votes, that only shows how many morons live in the US.

[d2bets]

I suspect that Kamala will get another tiny bump after the convention. That should all get wiped out if Kamala debates Trump. She's in way over her head. She will never escape her disastrous border czar failure no matter how the MSM tries to distract people away from it.

If Taylor Swift and Beyonce do influence any votes, that only shows how many morons live in the US.

Yep, that'll be your line. Except you'll say they rigged it. You're gonna whine and cry like it's 2020 again.

[Itsamazing777]

Trump favored for a reason. All you need to know

[DwightShrute]

Yep, that'll be your line. Except you'll say they rigged it. You're gonna whine and cry like it's 2020 again.

you keep saying that. you have been brainwashed trained well.

If you were able to be intellectually honest, you would admit that trying to take Trump off the ballot in States is in fact rigging an election. So is weaponizing the justice department. While we're at it, you'd also admit that the 51 former intelligence officials who signed a letter saying Biden's crackheads son's laptop was Russian disinformation was also rigging an election. But you can't. 2+2= 5 right? I mean if you can't be honest enough to do that, then there no chance anyone can possibly take you as a serious person.

Also, we have all seen Kamala speak and perform the last 4 years. No reasonably intelligent person who loves their country would even consider voting for her.

[d2bets]

I suspect that Kamala will get another tiny bump after the convention. That should all get wiped out if Kamala debates Trump. She's in way over her head. She will never escape her disastrous border czar failure no matter how the MSM tries to distract people away from it.

If Taylor Swift and Beyonce do influence any votes, that only shows how many morons live in the US.

Trump blew it that week with a terrible VP choice and a rambling divisive speech. He was given all the momentum by that dumbass 20 year old, and then promptly blew it.

[Itsamazing777]

[d2bets]

aaaaand this is exactly why she's going to mobilize the vote and win.

[JohnGalt2341]

Trump favored for a reason. All you need to know

Trump is roughly a 58% favorite at the moment. I expect this to drop by 5%(maybe more) by election time. Even if it doesn't, he's still not a huge favorite by any means. It's practically a coin flip.

On the other hand, the Dems are a roughly a 62% favorite to win the popular vote at the moment. Would you say there is a REASON for this? Or do you refuse to believe it, as you stated in an earlier post(that Trump will win the popular vote).

For me personally, I understand that political wagers CAN be very volatile, and usually they are. Your best bet is to try to set your emotions aside, and try to figure out the trends... that is... if you are interested in making money on this election. This is my #1 goal in this thread.

[Itsamazing777]

aaaaand this is exactly why she's going to mobilize the vote and win.

Women don't become president in this country. Especially ones like her. Good luck lol. You'll need it

[Itsamazing777]

Trump is roughly a 58% favorite at the moment. I expect this to drop by 5%(maybe more) by election time. Even if it doesn't, he's still not a huge favorite by any means. It's practically a coin flip.

On the other hand, the Dems are a roughly a 62% favorite to win the popular vote at the moment. Would you say there is a REASON for this? Or do you refuse to believe it, as you stated in an earlier post(that Trump will win the popular vote).

For me personally, I understand that political wagers CAN be very volatile, and usually they are. Your best bet is to try to set your emotions aside, and try to figure out the trends... that is... if you are interested in making money on this election. This is my #1 goal in this thread.

It's possible she wins the popular vote yes, but asking to win the electoral against someone who already has before is a bit much.

[JIBBBY]

Trump is still the best bet in the futures. Kamala honeymoon faze will wear off..

[Optional]

I think it kind of rides on if Trump can get people to genuinely hate Harris like he had done with Biden.

50/50 he can at this late stage for my money.

[JohnGalt2341]

Harris isn't accustomed to being in an intense spotlight 24/7 for 100+ days. She's relatively inexperienced, (nationally), and she has no political ideology. This is her honeymoon period. People will hold her to a higher standard than Trump. She's 60-years-old and she's going to make mistakes. I expect her popularity to wane over the coming 3+ months.

Trump is still the best bet in the futures. Kamala honeymoon faze will wear off..

Did you guys listen to the same right-wing pundit here? Prediction... both of your posts will age terribly.

My advice for the 2 of you is... if you want to bet on Trump, wait until election day, OR the day before the election. You will likely get the best odds then. It's no guarantee that you will win... but I think your odds will be decent on those 2 days. If I am wrong, feel free to call me out when the time comes.

[jackpot269]

I have 2 questions for you.

#1. What do you think Dr. Birx is thinking in the video below?

#2. Do you think Trump is being sarcastic in the video below?

Thank you for posting. Been told for a few years he did not say that. Not that he was bring sarcastic or spitballing, just he did not say it

[d2bets]

Women don't become president in this country. Especially ones like her. Good luck lol. You'll need it

Neither did a black person, until it happened. It's coming.

[semibluff]

Did you guys listen to the same right-wing pundit here? Prediction... both of your posts will age terribly.

My advice for the 2 of you is... if you want to bet on Trump, wait until election day, OR the day before the election. You will likely get the best odds then. It's no guarantee that you will win... but I think your odds will be decent on those 2 days. If I am wrong, feel free to call me out when the time comes.

That's your prediction. You are wrong and I don't need to wait until the election to tell you that. I'm not a supporter of either party. I'm a Brit, living in Britain, watching both European and US coverage. I'm almost certainly seeing more varied and objective media than you are.

Both parties have a core support. The supporters Harris has gained are the most fickle voters and they have the least invested in any political party, philosophy, or candidate. For now they intend to vote for Harris. If the election was held at the start of August I'd expect the Democrats to take WI & MI by 3.5 - 4 points and PA by 1.5 -2 points. That would result in the Democrats winning and Harris becoming President. It's a long election process and some, many, or all of those fickle voters will revert back to apathy or the 3rd party candidate they supported in June. If Harris is 2.5 - 3 points ahead in WI & MI at the start of September and 0.5 - 1 point ahead in PA she'll be a coin flip or slight favourite. If she has maintained or extended her early August poll lead through developing a cult of personality she'll be a -175 favourite. If she's back to being behind in PA Trump will be -275.

I don't know how this election will turn out. My analysis tells me whoever wins PA wins the election. Trump had the lead there. Harris should now have a small lead there. Harris' lead is likely to crumble so Trump currently has a 63% chance, give or take, to have the lead come election day. The probabilities will be wildly unstable as very few votes may be needed to alter the result. Just my analysis and opinion. You and all other posters are of course welcome to disagree.

[d2bets]

That's your prediction. You are wrong and I don't need to wait until the election to tell you that. I'm not a supporter of either party. I'm a Brit, living in Britain, watching both European and US coverage. I'm almost certainly seeing more varied and objective media than you are.

Both parties have a core support. The supporters Harris has gained are the most fickle voters and they have the least invested in any political party, philosophy, or candidate. For now they intend to vote for Harris. If the election was held at the start of August I'd expect the Democrats to take WI & MI by 3.5 - 4 points and PA by 1.5 -2 points. That would result in the Democrats winning and Harris becoming President. It's a long election process and some, many, or all of those fickle voters will revert back to apathy or the 3rd party candidate they supported in June. If Harris is 2.5 - 3 points ahead in WI & MI at the start of September and 0.5 - 1 point ahead in PA she'll be a coin flip or slight favourite. If she has maintained or extended her early August poll lead through developing a cult of personality she'll be a -175 favourite. If she's back to being behind in PA Trump will be -275.

I don't know how this election will turn out. My analysis tells me whoever wins PA wins the election. Trump had the lead there. Harris should now have a small lead there. Harris' lead is likely to crumble so Trump currently has a 63% chance, give or take, to have the lead come election day. The probabilities will be wildly unstable as very few votes may be needed to alter the result. Just my analysis and opinion. You and all other posters are of course welcome to disagree.

If PA is outcome-determinative, how does your analysis change if she selects PA Gov. Josh Shapiro as VP. He is wildly popular there and defeated his Trump-backed MAGA opponent by 15 points in 2022.

[Itsamazing777]

What do Trump and Harris have in common?

[JohnGalt2341]

That's your prediction. You are wrong and I don't need to wait until the election to tell you that. I'm not a supporter of either party. I'm a Brit, living in Britain, watching both European and US coverage. I'm almost certainly seeing more varied and objective media than you are.

Both parties have a core support. The supporters Harris has gained are the most fickle voters and they have the least invested in any political party, philosophy, or candidate. For now they intend to vote for Harris. If the election was held at the start of August I'd expect the Democrats to take WI & MI by 3.5 - 4 points and PA by 1.5 -2 points. That would result in the Democrats winning and Harris becoming President. It's a long election process and some, many, or all of those fickle voters will revert back to apathy or the 3rd party candidate they supported in June. If Harris is 2.5 - 3 points ahead in WI & MI at the start of September and 0.5 - 1 point ahead in PA she'll be a coin flip or slight favourite. If she has maintained or extended her early August poll lead through developing a cult of personality she'll be a -175 favourite. If she's back to being behind in PA Trump will be -275.

I don't know how this election will turn out. My analysis tells me whoever wins PA wins the election. Trump had the lead there. Harris should now have a small lead there. Harris' lead is likely to crumble so Trump currently has a 63% chance, give or take, to have the lead come election day. The probabilities will be wildly unstable as very few votes may be needed to alter the result. Just my analysis and opinion. You and all other posters are of course welcome to disagree.

We shall see. I'm not going to guarantee that I will be right, but I have a pretty good track record when it comes to Political wagers(not just in this thread). I encourage you to check out some of my prior Political predictions(again, not just this thread). I am also not a supporter of either political party, I just think Trump is worse. I make my predictions(and wagers) primarily based on human behavior, and so far, I've been right FAR FAR more than I've been wrong.

I don't really give a rats ass about the media. I pay little to no attention to it(some YouTube, I will admit). But it has ZERO influence on my predictions.

Are you saying Trump has a 63% chance of winning the election as of right now? How are you coming up with this number? I say it's around 58%(a 5% difference to me is rather LARGE, especially when it comes to wagering). I expect this to be around 53% come election time, give or take 2 to 3%.

I should mention once again, that I've never once said that Trump isn't going to win the election. I've only stated that I think it's highly unlikely that he will win the Popular Vote. AND, I think a day or 2 before the election, the odds are going to be TIGHT(meaning Trump will likely only be a very small favorite at the time, maybe not even a favorite). I could be wrong, we shall see.

Good luck to you with your wagers!

[JohnGalt2341]

Also... in PA... Bovada currently has it at:

Democrat +170

Republican -230

But BetOnline currently has PA at:

Democrat -105

Republican -135

So... there is some nice value here SOMEWHERE. Bovada will only let me bet $10 on this(it might be different for others). But one of these Lines(or both) is DEFINITELY not sharp. I tend to think the BetOnline Line is MUCH more sharp here.

semibluff may very well be right in that... whoever wins PA, wins the election.

[homie1975]

Also... in PA... Bovada currently has it at:

Democrat +170

Republican -230

But BetOnline currently has PA at:

Democrat -105

Republican -135

So... there is some nice value here SOMEWHERE. Bovada will only let me bet $10 on this(it might be different for others). But one of these Lines(or both) is DEFINITELY not sharp. I tend to think the BetOnline Line is MUCH more sharp here.

semibluff may very well be right in that... whoever wins PA, wins the election.

it would be interesting to see how much that changes if Kamala picks Josh Shapiro.

in 2020 Biden won PA by over 80,000 votes.

that was when Trump famously said "stop counting votes in PA" because he was ahead but "keep counting votes in AZ" where he was behind.



you cannot make it up. it was so classic!

and then Rudy goes outside for a presser at the "Four Seasons" landscaping company instead of the hotel with hair dye running down each side of his face and it was right across the street from a strip club

[Itsamazing777]

1 state will not decide this election
3 swing states will be needed

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props on all the info. Hope you guys are placing some nice +EV bets on this.

Personally, I'm not sure which way it will go. I do struggle to see a DEM candidate who will strike a chord with the voters.

[homie1975]

1 state will not decide this election
3 swing states will be needed

PA will be needed to win.
19 electoral votes.
it is the most important one because it usually is accompanied by MI and WI (the blue wall)

AZ = 11 votes
NV = 6 votes
GA = 16 votes

PA at 19 is the biggie and unlocks other swings.

[semibluff]

Here is the 270towin dot com interactive state map

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

Originally they had both NC and GA as non-aligned toss-up states. They altered NC to leaning Republican some months ago. they moved GA the same way about 2 weeks ago. This currently gives Trump 251 electoral college votes. PA has 19 votes and 270 are needed to win. If the current map holds true PA gets Trump to 270 even if he loses MI, WI, NV, & AZ. MI and WI are believed to lean about 1% more towards the Democrats than PA does. Conventional wisdom suggests if the Democrats take PA they'll take MI and WI as well. Those 3 states would put them on 270.

Shapiro is a short price to be the VP purely because of the importance of PA. However, since a huge amount of resources are going to be thrown at PA and overkill campaigning it is questionable as to whether making Shapiro the VP will have an impact, (since he will be constantly campaigning there alongside Harris anyway). Maybe it makes a 1% difference, and if the Democrats think it will he should be the pick. However, Shapiro's Jewish heritage may counteract his otherwise positive influence potentially making MI & WI less blue. It's a marginal call.

The amount of votes a party won the last election by isn't really the issue. How close the votes were in percentage terms is more telling. In 2020 the Democrats won: GA by 0.3%, AZ by 0.4%, WI by 0.6%, PA by 1.2%, NV by 2.4%, MI by 2.8%. Trump won NC by 1.3%.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

Good luck to everyone with whoever they bet on.