(Coll FB) Week Zero and Week One plays

[veriableodds]

Good luck this season also Chuck. A few notes as for in general
**If BTCL was so great just take a look at LTP record 3/10 winning seasons isn't winning when 7/10 are down huge. Just rethink BTCL and sit on sidelines from unbiased point of view it really has no mathematical merit.
**(RAS) crickets is all I hear
**Value, and +ev has and always will be successful

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good luck this season also Chuck. A few notes as for in general
**If BTCL was so great just take a look at LTP record 3/10 winning seasons isn't winning when 7/10 are down huge. Just rethink BTCL and sit on sidelines from unbiased point of view it really has no mathematical merit.
**(RAS) crickets is all I hear
**Value, and +ev has and always will be successful

Hey, veri. Thx for the note.

I am in the BTCL value camp. IMHO, you need to have two things to beat the market:
1) Good picks
2) Good prices on your tickets

If I could get ONE point of extra value relative to each closing line, I would feel great about turning a profit. It's a cumulative thing. Every point adds up.

I've given my opinions on RAS. He bets so early that no follower gets his listed #.

Value for sure. Good Luck to you this season. Hey...I used your North Carolina pick, go Heels!

[texhooper]

Miami -2.5 -110 5,500/5,000 my best and only bet for week 1. I went 34-13 on my college football plays last year.

You’re in Florida if I’m not mistaken. Do you have local, gangster intel on this one?

[veriableodds]

I do believe maybe BTCL-vs- value is perceived the same. So, if you calculate team. A too loose by 3 thru 7 points, but they are getting +10 is value. Football is about the # more than line movement. As far as let's say waiting for an MLB line to move 3% in your favor, just got to ask yourself if the time is worth it??

[texhooper]

Is 50 games at 58% better than 10 games at 70%?

Any reasonable opinions appreciated?

Dave
Mack the Teach

50 games at 58% is much better than 10 at 70%, is the short answer, if you have a higher unit size for the 10 games, well that’s something too. If we take juice out of the equation you got a 29-21 record on one side and a 7-3 record on the other side. So that’s 8 units vs 4, 8 beats 4 right. But if you’re betting 2% on the 50 vs 5% on the 10, you’re gonna make more money on the 10. Assuming, of course, that you actually can hit 7 out of 10 with regularity.

I like that you brought this up though, because I wrestle all the time with what I should be doing, how I should be attacking this. And I find myself with similar questions to this all the time. Pros or anyone who does this seriously will always say higher volume/lower percent (as long as it’s not too low lol) always beats lower volume higher percent. I don’t know that I’m built that way though. I’ve always tried to approach this with a pro mindset, but I think I need to taylor things more towards my personal mindset, because at this rate, I don’t think I’m turning pro any time soon anyway, right. So I actually think my personal approach is going to shift more towards managing how much I will allow myself to LOSE in a given day instead of if you bet this much per play at x win rate you’ll WIN x amount whatever whatever whatever. I can do fantastic things with this, but I can also do horrible things. My general pattern is that I will run pretty hot then I run pretty cold, and the cold undoes all the good will of the hot. The cold however is generally because my decision making starts to get worse as the losses come in. When I go cold it’s not about me the game-picker, it’s about me the human being. I’m always saying, why did I take all this other shit when I only needed to take that one I really liked for the amount of all these other losers combined? That leads to this poor decision, and that poor decision, etc etc. So for that reason, coming into this football season, I'm gonna shift focus from “unit size” or whatever to more of a mindset of if you’re down to your last bet of the day, is this what you’re putting it on at 2:30? Or do you have something at 7:00 that’s stronger? I’m gonna try to avoid the “I think this wins 54 times out of 100 thereby I shall put one equal and un-unique unit on it along with all 7 of these other equal plays and after 350 plays at 1.5% of bankroll my ROI…” blah blah blah, and I’m gonna strive to find the shit I’m most confident in and stick to only that because I can live with that at the end of the day. Try to stick to the shit where if my next meal depends on it that it will not lose. Will not lose because I said so right…haha. Anyway, I sound insane at this point and am probably miles away from what you wanted but I’m gonna post this anyway. In summary, trying to hit 29 of 50 or 7 of 10, at the end of the day, what can you live with and not fukking fukk it all up when shit’s not going your way? The answer may not line up with someone setting out to make a living off this shit. That’s my feedback to you. And if it’s 50 plays at 58% then definitely do that

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do believe maybe BTCL-vs- value is perceived the same. So, if you calculate team. A too loose by 3 thru 7 points, but they are getting +10 is value. Football is about the # more than line movement. As far as let's say waiting for an MLB line to move 3% in your favor, just got to ask yourself if the time is worth it??

Veri, I think the BEST sports-bettor is a mix of handicapper AND bettor. To my original point:
1) You identify the side that you think is +EV value.
2) You do your best to get down at the peak #. Small edges add up. More so in a Moneyline market where it's hitting your bottom line every play. In the spread markets, you're trying to get down at numbers where you might...win one game (you would have pushed) and pushed one game (that you would have lost).

So, BTCL value might be a slow grind. But I think it's real.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* NEVADA +27 2.00 (vs smu): 1 to win 1.00
...Been scouting out this game. Was interested at +24. So, I'm very interested at this #.
...SMU is off a Home Run year. Best season since coming off the Death Penalty (in 1989).
...SMU's 2023 success was versus a Mid-Major schedule. They move to the ACC this year.
...Mustangs are a very popular pick. So easy to back them here.
...Nevada was awful last year. When you're at the bottom of the barrel, only one place to go. And that's up.
...Top two NEV QBs are transfers from Colo/Neb. Stable of Running backs will be much improved from last year. More than half of their offensive starters are transfers from Major schools.
...I can't see the talent gap being as big as the # implies. Nevada will be improved in 2024.
...Travel edge spot. SMU goes two time zones away...and up from sea-level to 4500'.
...Big Dog that nobody wants. SMU has to win by four TDs to cover. I like my chances.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Idaho St +34.5 1.91 (@OregSt): 1 to win .91
...This is an exploitative play. I've pointed out how important the Coaching changes are in the modern Transfer portal.
...HC Smith goes east to MichSt. He takes the incumbent QB with him. TopRB transfers to MiamiFL.
...Massive departures via Transfer/NFL. This team is gutted. Pac10 abandoned OregSt, Beavers don't have a Conference.
...New QB is a transfer from FCS Idaho. Only a few returning starters. New HC Bray is talking big, but this is a re-build.
...Also, the Beavers mailed it in for the Bowl game. Sign of things to come?

[DonnieBrasco23]

Miami -2.5 -110 5,500/5,000 my best and only bet for week 1. I went 34-13 on my college football plays last year.

Ok so I lied lol I went 15K on it instead of 5K and I chose the safer bet on the ML.

[DonnieBrasco23]

You’re in Florida if I’m not mistaken. Do you have local, gangster intel on this one?

Intel & opinions will be posted in my thread in the next few days.

[Eddy Munny]

Ok so I lied lol I went 15K on it instead of 5K and I chose the safer bet on the ML.

Good luck... It's an interesting game to me, but I'm not sure if it's anything I'll bet or not. I do think Miami has the superior team on paper, but FLA has a lot of wildcards and anything can happen in the first week of the year, especially at the Swamp. Cam Ward is a stud but learning a new offense. I'll probably end up on the U for a half unit.

[DonnieBrasco23]

Good luck... It's an interesting game to me, but I'm not sure if it's anything I'll bet or not. I do think Miami has the superior team on paper, but FLA has a lot of wildcards and anything can happen in the first week of the year, especially at the Swamp. Cam Ward is a stud but learning a new offense. I'll probably end up on the U for a half unit.

From what I've read Miami will have a solid defense this year, which has been a long time coming. I see this team firing off several wins in a row. Remember they brought over D. Martinez as well stud running back from Oregon St. these two former Pac 12 stars will shine and shine early.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As of today, I'm holding good BTCL value on many of these posted plays:

1) Only question is: WHY didn't I bet more?

2) On certain games I may be looking to make a small hedge-back to lock in some equity.

For the record I DON'T feel like these are guaranteed winners (at all). Just nice to have good #s on my tickets.

[DonnieBrasco23]

Ok so I lied lol I went 15K on it instead of 5K and I chose the safer bet on the ML.

Here are some reasons why I love Miami to play well this year, these are my words.

Miami is 5-2 and 6-1 ATS last 7 games against the Gators, so they have that going for them which is a micro reason to take them. Main reason I like Miami in this match up is they will finally have a defensive presence out on the field this year and it's been a long time coming. They have a chance to be elite at least in the ACC. Jason Taylor former Hall of fame inductee and Joe Salave'a are building a squad through the transfer portal and in-state recruiting.

As a rushing defense, five Canes defensive linemen would rank inside the top 50 for run-stop percentage: defensive tackle Akheem Mesidor, defensive end Chantz Williams, defensive end Jayden Wayne, defensive tackle Branson Deen, and defensive end Rueban Bain Jr is their leader Their offensive line is returning 3 out of 5 starters this year and all have potential NFL draft picks according to their rankings. So they have the interroir set up nicely for offensive star transfers QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez from the Pac 12.

They have an above average WR tandem with Jacolby George & Xavier Restrepo that will benefit greatly from a 5 year experienced QB in Cam Ward. Mario Cristobol is not a great coach lol, but he's a great recruiter and has put together a roster in 2024. Hopefully his bonehead coaching decisions don't cost me 15.5K to start my season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* TROY -9.5 1.91 (vs Nevada): 2 to win 1.82.
...No loyalty in this game. Bet the side that you expect to get the $$.
...First off, Troy is (admittedly) in transition. They figure to be down this year.
...That said, this # looks short to me. Wolfpack played a good game and almost sprung the big upset.
...I view this as a great situational play. Nevada got a chance to show themselves. In reaction to that game, line moved across key #s.
...SMU had to go from the Dallas heat to deal with the wind/cold of Reno. Nevada now has to make the long trip to Troy AL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* TROY -9.5 1.91 (vs Nevada): 2 to win 1.82.
...No loyalty in this game. Bet the side that you expect to get the $$.
...First off, Troy is (admittedly) in transition. They figure to be down this year.
...That said, this # looks short to me. Wolfpack played a good game and almost sprung the big upset.
...I view this as a great situational play. Nevada got a chance to show themselves. In reaction to that game, line moved across key #s.
...SMU had to go from the Dallas heat to deal with the wind/cold of Reno. Nevada now has to make the long trip to Troy AL.

3rd unit on TROY -8 1.88: 1 to win .88
...Don't understand this line. Think it's just an over-reaction.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One unit of action on two small plays:

0.5* James Mad -6 1.96: 0.50 to win .48. Just a hedge-back with a 4-point shot @ the middle.
0.5* Idaho +44 1.91 (@oreg): 0.50 to win .45. Feel like Idaho is too good to be catching these points. Grabbing the Big Dog, feel like Oreg is overhyped. Dropoff from Nix to Gabriel > people think.

[veriableodds]

Intel & opinions will be posted in my thread in the next few days.

Can you post a link to your thread here. Thanks

[veriableodds]

GL this season Chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL this season Chuck

Thx, Veri:
1) I'm happy with my preparation for Week 0/1. Tickets look good (going in).
2) Honestly, I'm not so sure what to expect from Week 2 on.

[veriableodds]

for the love of #s

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Veri, I think the Bucks are going to be huge this year. If I didn't have to tie up $$, I'd be on:

1) Ohio St to win NCAA +325
2) Ohio St +1.5 (@oreg): Can't believe they're a dog in that game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing five Big Dogs. Risking one unit each:

*Western ILL +35 1.93
*Ark-Pine Bluff +49 1.91
*Lindenwood +45 1.91
*Murray St +47 1.93
*Alab A&M +47.5 1.93

[A Quant]

Veri, I think the Bucks are going to be huge this year. If I didn't have to tie up $$, I'd be on:

1) Ohio St to win NCAA +325
2) Ohio St +1.5 (@oreg): Can't believe they're a dog in that game.

Agree with you on this Chucky-- Ohio State at +325 seems like REALLY good value.

Good luck with your picks this year Chucky!

[A Quant]

Playing five Big Dogs. Risking one unit each:

*Western ILL +35 1.93
*Ark-Pine Bluff +49 1.91
*Lindenwood +45 1.91
*Murray St +47 1.93
*Alab A&M +47.5 1.93

History is definitely on your side with these. Big dogs first weekend--- I'd bet 3 of those 5 cash for you. Murray State and Western Illinois are good picks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agree with you on this Chucky-- Ohio State at +325 seems like REALLY good value.

Good luck with your picks this year Chucky!

Thanks, Quant! Trust me, it pains me to write that. I hate the Buckeyes.

When I was researching this team:
1) My first thought was that WR Harrison was a big loss.
2) Then I saw the Klatt video. He reported that ELEVEN Buckeyes turned down the NFL to come back.
3) OhioSt even stole Alabama's top DB Downs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

History is definitely on your side with these. Big dogs first weekend--- I'd bet 3 of those 5 cash for you. Murray State and Western Illinois are good picks.

Thx, Quant. Have my reasons:

1) To your point on the Big Dogs, the opener can be a game where the HC rewards the backups with a little playing time when the game is in hand.
2) These teams qualify as pretty uninspiring opponents. And all five would be what I call short-travel road dogs. Not more than 300 miles for any trip, bus rides for these games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A couple small 1h plays:
0.5* Temple +28 1.91: 0.5 to win .45
0.5* West KY +18.5 2.00: 0.5 to win .50

Lots of action. Good Luck, boys.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on Ark-Pine Bluff +49.5 1.93: 1 to win .93

[johnnyvegas13]

Gl chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on Ark-Pine Bluff +49.5 1.93: 1 to win .93

2nd unit on Murray St +50 1.97: 1 to win .97

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on Murray St +50 1.97: 1 to win .97

2nd unit on Lindenwood +47.5 1.97: 1 to win .97

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two small plays:

0.5* Lindenwood +49 1.90: 0.50 to win .45
0.5* (1h) SoUtah +25 1.88: 0.50 to win .44

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Duquesne:
0.5* +28 1.91: 0.5 to win .45
0.5* +27.5 2.00: 0.5 to win .50

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Update:
*Nevada was a nice ATS winner last week.
*THUR: awful. I thought I was going to take the collar. If a team got shutout, I had em.
...Only good thing that came of it was getting some timely numbers. Helped flip the ATS outcome on two games.

Will do the full recap when the games wrap up on Sunday.