(Coll FB) Week Zero and Week One plays

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37366

    #36
    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
    1* Fresno St +20.5 1.91: 1 to win .91.
    ...MICH off the Natl champ win. Wolverines in massive transition. They lose HC, QB, RB, all five Off Linemen.
    ...FRESNO's losses the last two seasons have mostly come when the Starting QB was injured.
    ...QB Keene off a sharp performance in a decisive bowl win.
    ...In addition to Keene, Fresno has a good RB and a solid Off Line. Brought in some transfers to form a solid Def Line.
    ...Moore in first game as fulltime MICH coach. I give the coaching edge to Tedford, who has been a HC for 17 years.
    ...Tedford has groomed many QBs. I'm looking for a competitive game.
    ...Also, MICH has a huge game on-deck with Texas. I expect the Michigan play-calling to be very vanilla so as to not give anything away.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • veriableodds
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-22-17
      • 5093

      #37
      SALUD Chuck. This isn't exactly football related but all these breaks, and such coming up for sports (mlb, wnba) it's going to be a 2-week layoff, with a few exceptions. with fewer options books are going to be sharper. Taking the wife up to Montana for the huckleberry festival in Kalispell, MT.
      GL Chuck
      Comment
      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 37366

        #38
        Originally posted by veriableodds
        SALUD Chuck. This isn't exactly football related but all these breaks, and such coming up for sports (mlb, wnba) it's going to be a 2-week layoff, with a few exceptions. with fewer options books are going to be sharper. Taking the wife up to Montana for the huckleberry festival in Kalispell, MT.
        GL Chuck
        Wow. Montana sounds great. Want to get up there myself.

        Supposed to be beautiful. Enjoy the trip.
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • ChuckyTheGoat
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-04-11
          • 37366

          #39
          1* NWern -3.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
          ...MiaOH off a season where they won the MAC and finished 11-3. Name QB returns, they'll be a trendy dog pick.
          ...Redhawks lose their secret weapon. ALAB poached Groza Award winner Nicholson in the transfer portal. MIA will be without a kicker who made 27/28 FG last season.
          ...NWern QB Wright has track speed. He will put stress on a MAC defense.
          ...I count only two MAC wins over Big10 in the L5 years. One of them was the last meeting for MiaOH @ NWern.
          ...Wildcats will be on alert. Home Fav price looks cheap.
          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
          Comment
          • usma1992
            SBR MVP
            • 08-02-11
            • 1410

            #40
            I crossed referenced some of your picks... TCU - seems a common thread. Pitt/Kent State Under seems a solid bet. My system has OSU 39-0 which obviously doesn't cover the 50.5. My system only picked 6 games. It did have Western Kentucky covering versus Bama and it had Oklahoma winning by 50. My picks are worth looking at it might be a good balance.

            They are on another thread. I only start betting week 4.

            Dave
            Mack the Teach
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 37366

              #41
              Originally posted by usma1992
              I crossed referenced some of your picks... TCU - seems a common thread. Pitt/Kent State Under seems a solid bet. My system has OSU 39-0 which obviously doesn't cover the 50.5. My system only picked 6 games. It did have Western Kentucky covering versus Bama and it had Oklahoma winning by 50. My picks are worth looking at it might be a good balance.

              They are on another thread. I only start betting week 4.

              Dave
              Mack the Teach
              Salud, us. Thanks for the note. Good Luck on your modelling.

              I can say that this stuff is not easy. And I don't claim to have a Coll FB rating that rips up the ATS line.

              I have had some historical success betting into the Season-opener games. It's sometimes as simple as the oddsmaker not fully adjusting for the changes from the off-season.

              us, you reference the Akron/OhioSt game. I personally think that's a tough game to bet. Total mismatch, so it's just a question of How Much? Klatt mentioned that ELEVEN Buckeye players turned down the NFL draft to come back. Addition of CB Downs from Alab, it's just a question of margin.
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • usma1992
                SBR MVP
                • 08-02-11
                • 1410

                #42
                Check out my numbers... see what you think...

                Dave
                Mack the Teach
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37366

                  #43
                  Originally posted by usma1992
                  Check out my numbers... see what you think...

                  Dave
                  Mack the Teach
                  Hi, us. I see the thread:


                  My opinion is that it's very tough to get the math right on the Season openers. So many moving parts.

                  This year more than ever, the teams are tied to Coaching changes. Some teams literally lost half the players from last year's roster.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 37366

                    #44
                    us, some random comments as I view your output. These are just MY opinions:

                    1) Nevada should be improved. They picked up some Transfer portal guys.
                    ...SMU is off a huge year. I think they're over-hyped.
                    ...I'm waiting to hear who wins the NEV qb job. I view Lewis as a stiff.

                    2) Steele was surprisingly not that hi on Drake Maye (no Carol).
                    ...He thinks that the QB dropoff won't be too bad.
                    ...Steele likes this UNC team, so the dog might be value.

                    3) TCU is on Steele's Most Improved list.
                    ...Could be a Frog bounceback after hi in 2022 and lo in 2023.
                    ...I just don't like laying those points in a Road Fav travel game.

                    4) VATech will be a very popular betting team.
                    ...Are the Hokies being over-bet?
                    ...Vandy is backing on the NMSt Transfer Padia. They're building their offense around him.

                    5) I'd be very surprised to see OhioU win @Syra.
                    ...QB Rourke went to Indiana.
                    ...OhioU would be one of the big transition teams. Not much left from last year's team.
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • usma1992
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-02-11
                      • 1410

                      #45
                      I don't value first week... I am just posting to get my fingers wet... I don't bet until Week 4. I was very surprised at the OU game also... I don't think they win... but one thing I do is remain unbiased. Week 4 and beyond will determine whether I am dialed or not.
                      Dave
                      Mack the Teach
                      Comment
                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 04-04-11
                        • 37366

                        #46
                        Originally posted by usma1992
                        I don't value first week... I am just posting to get my fingers wet... I don't bet until Week 4. I was very surprised at the OU game also... I don't think they win... but one thing I do is remain unbiased. Week 4 and beyond will determine whether I am dialed or not.
                        Dave
                        Mack the Teach
                        Just my opinion. The best bettor should be prepared to price in any situation.

                        I list my Plays and give my rationale. Sure as hell doesn't mean that I win every time. But I try to be on the right side.
                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                        Comment
                        • usma1992
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-02-11
                          • 1410

                          #47
                          I think he knew that. He was comparing Nebraska QB to an FCS average.
                          Comment
                          • usma1992
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-02-11
                            • 1410

                            #48
                            I need some feedback on something I have been wrestling with for years. I still have not achieved clarity. Right now my model is fine tuned to produce the most unit wins versus the money outlayed.

                            I am not convinced I am right. By betting more games... rather than less you diversify your portfolio so if a bad week happens you are still ok. Obviously, I want the most amount of wins with the least amount of risk.

                            However, if I am betting 50 games versus 7... it spreads the risk... I was a stock broker at one time in my life and I understand the value of diversification... even if I don't practice it personally.

                            Is 50 games at 58% better than 10 games at 70%?

                            Any reasonable opinions appreciated?

                            Dave
                            Mack the Teach
                            Comment
                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 04-04-11
                              • 37366

                              #49
                              I'll offer up an opinion. A great metric to shoot for = # Standard Deviations to the Right.
                              ...If you're +2.00 or +3.00 Std Dev to the right of Random, you can feel confident that your model is beating Randomness.

                              Start with N. Random coin-flip gives p=.50. Variance = npq. Standard Dev = Sqrt (VAR).

                              In practice, you don't want to be betting too many games. You want to isolate value.
                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                              Comment
                              • veriableodds
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-22-17
                                • 5093

                                #50
                                Originally posted by usma1992
                                I need some feedback on something I have been wrestling with for years. I still have not achieved clarity. Right now my model is fine tuned to produce the most unit wins versus the money outlayed.

                                I am not convinced I am right. By betting more games... rather than less you diversify your portfolio so if a bad week happens you are still ok. Obviously, I want the most amount of wins with the least amount of risk.

                                However, if I am betting 50 games versus 7... it spreads the risk... I was a stock broker at one time in my life and I understand the value of diversification... even if I don't practice it personally.

                                Is 50 games at 58% better than 10 games at 70%?

                                Any reasonable opinions appreciated?

                                Dave
                                Mack the Teach
                                By betting more games... rather than less you diversify your portfolio so if a bad week happens you are still ok. Obviously, I want the most amount of wins with the least amount of risk. R-Adjust down for volume. More in the same sport, same type wager is not diverse. If it's a side-vs-total, then its slightly different

                                I was a stock broker at one time in my life and I understand the value of diversification... even if I don't practice it personally. R-Try explaining a high dividend income chasing investor strategy to a bogle head growth investor
                                Comment
                                • usma1992
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-02-11
                                  • 1410

                                  #51
                                  Appreciate the feedback from both of you. I have decided to value win percentage 4x how many games I bet but I am valuing the amount of games I bet.

                                  The more games I bet the better the diversification I can achieve but win percentage obviously matters. I am close... I am going to be dangerous soon lol.

                                  Dave
                                  Mack the Teach
                                  Comment
                                  • DonnieBrasco23
                                    Benched
                                    • 11-06-23
                                    • 1137

                                    #52
                                    Miami -2.5 -110 5,500/5,000 my best and only bet for week 1. I went 34-13 on my college football plays last year.
                                    Comment
                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 04-04-11
                                      • 37366

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by usma1992
                                      Appreciate the feedback from both of you. I have decided to value win percentage 4x how many games I bet but I am valuing the amount of games I bet.

                                      The more games I bet the better the diversification I can achieve but win percentage obviously matters. I am close... I am going to be dangerous soon lol.

                                      Dave
                                      Mack the Teach
                                      You bet, us. Thx for the feedback. That's just my perspective.

                                      Will comment that I feel like the modern line is very sharp. Information travels quickly. Good Luck with your plays.
                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                      Comment
                                      • usma1992
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-02-11
                                        • 1410

                                        #54
                                        I guess we will see. My system seems pretty powerful. College Basketball killed it... I think College Football is ready or at least worth taking for a spin.

                                        Dave
                                        Mack the Teach
                                        Comment
                                        • DonnieBrasco23
                                          Benched
                                          • 11-06-23
                                          • 1137

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by usma1992
                                          I guess we will see. My system seems pretty powerful. College Basketball killed it... I think College Football is ready or at least worth taking for a spin.

                                          Dave
                                          Mack the Teach
                                          I’m not familiar with your work do you post your plays on these boards ?
                                          Comment
                                          • Eddy Munny
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-13-13
                                            • 15767

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by DonnieBrasco23
                                            I’m not familiar with your work do you post your plays on these boards ?
                                            You're not familiar with Dave Mack the Teach?

                                            Where've you been? Everyone knows Dave Mack the Teach.

                                            Of all the Mack the Teach's in the world, Dave is one of them.
                                            Comment
                                            • DonnieBrasco23
                                              Benched
                                              • 11-06-23
                                              • 1137

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by Eddy Munny
                                              You're not familiar with Dave Mack the Teach?

                                              Where've you been? Everyone knows Dave Mack the Teach.

                                              Of all the Mack the Teach's in the world, Dave is one of them.
                                              He’s very confident, would love to follow his college plays this year to see if he can execute with his system again.
                                              Comment
                                              • usma1992
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-02-11
                                                • 1410

                                                #58
                                                Well... I have been building this model for the last 16 years and it might finally be working... Am I confident? Depends on the day LOL. I know I am really close if not there. I am now only fine tuning which is a big difference to where I was 16 years ago. Everything is fully automated.

                                                Ironically, the site I get my stats from went bankrupt so now I in the process of finding new sites and figuring out how they import on a download and then figuring out how to get them into my model without errors.

                                                I will post my picks... I posted my college basketball and NBA picks. Still can't get NBA to work.... almost broke my computer and several other things on NBA.

                                                What I do know is that I have sang for Presidents in the White House, lived in RV at 50 below, run marathons sometimes on less than 2 hours of sleep... escaped house fire... been sued for 110K... jumped out of airplanes and repelled out of helicopters...

                                                I think I got this in me.... LOL
                                                Dave
                                                Mack the Teach
                                                Comment
                                                • usma1992
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-02-11
                                                  • 1410

                                                  #59
                                                  My house fire escape anniversary is only 3 days away. 120 seconds later... I am toast... weird to think. My son won't be born. So I guess all of this is a bonus.

                                                  Dave
                                                  Mack the Teach
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                    • 37366

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by usma1992
                                                    Well... I have been building this model for the last 16 years and it might finally be working... Am I confident? Depends on the day LOL. I know I am really close if not there. I am now only fine tuning which is a big difference to where I was 16 years ago. Everything is fully automated.

                                                    Ironically, the site I get my stats from went bankrupt so now I in the process of finding new sites and figuring out how they import on a download and then figuring out how to get them into my model without errors.

                                                    I will post my picks... I posted my college basketball and NBA picks. Still can't get NBA to work.... almost broke my computer and several other things on NBA.

                                                    Dave
                                                    Mack the Teach
                                                    us, thx for your contribution. You know I don't talk Bullshit. Here are my un-filtered thoughts:

                                                    1) If your confidence is luke-warm, don't bet it. Paper-trade until you're CONVINCED that it's +EV. Big difference between +EV and being SURE that you're going to win.
                                                    ...FYI: I've seen some of the BEST handicappers hit a cold streak akin to the Ice Age. Streaks that are two standard deviations to the left, they do happen.

                                                    2) You bring up a great note on the Stats. Getting clean input is half the battle.
                                                    ...And you're right, sites come and go. I've seen some good ones disappear.
                                                    ...Ideally, you want to double-enter your raw data. Take data from two sites so that you can compare and feel good about the input.

                                                    3) Handicapping is super-challenging. I felt good about my NBA work this year.
                                                    ...The one tip I'd give on NBA is that I think it's futile to evaluate on a team basis.
                                                    ...Need to break it down to individuals. You want to get a feel for which players contribute...and which players are dead weight.
                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DonnieBrasco23
                                                      Benched
                                                      • 11-06-23
                                                      • 1137

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by usma1992
                                                      Well... I have been building this model for the last 16 years and it might finally be working... Am I confident? Depends on the day LOL. I know I am really close if not there. I am now only fine tuning which is a big difference to where I was 16 years ago. Everything is fully automated.

                                                      Ironically, the site I get my stats from went bankrupt so now I in the process of finding new sites and figuring out how they import on a download and then figuring out how to get them into my model without errors.

                                                      I will post my picks... I posted my college basketball and NBA picks. Still can't get NBA to work.... almost broke my computer and several other things on NBA.

                                                      What I do know is that I have sang for Presidents in the White House, lived in RV at 50 below, run marathons sometimes on less than 2 hours of sleep... escaped house fire... been sued for 110K... jumped out of airplanes and repelled out of helicopters...

                                                      I think I got this in me.... LOL
                                                      Dave
                                                      Mack the Teach
                                                      Statfox.com right ? I use them too lol was a great site. Statsharp.com is suppose to be a revamped version of the old site in late August. If we’re talking about the same site.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • usma1992
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-02-11
                                                        • 1410

                                                        #62
                                                        By the way... we always did a Sandhurst competition... I never got involved.

                                                        Dave
                                                        Mack the Teach
                                                        Comment
                                                        • usma1992
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-02-11
                                                          • 1410

                                                          #63
                                                          Yes ... I used StatFox... the last few years... College Football I got up and running... I am using NFL.com for my NFL stats. Can you believe that NFL.com doesn't have a stat sheet for average points scored. How is that possible? It the most important stat.

                                                          Dave
                                                          Mack the Teach
                                                          Comment
                                                          • usma1992
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-02-11
                                                            • 1410

                                                            #64
                                                            Chuck... I appreciate the input... about luke warm... I need to bet the games... because I pay attention to them more. I know this sounds insane but if I don't have money riding on the game.... I don't analyze as hard.

                                                            I will consider your NBA thoughts.

                                                            Donnie ... find my college basketball thread... I was on fire.
                                                            Dave
                                                            Mack the Teach
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 04-04-11
                                                              • 37366

                                                              #65
                                                              Two 1* plays. Games I've been scouting out. Like these #s:

                                                              *Clemson +14 1.91 (vs Geo): 1 to win .91

                                                              *TEXAS A&m +1.5 1.91 (vs Not Dame): 1 to win .91
                                                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 04-04-11
                                                                • 37366

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                Two 1* plays. Games I've been scouting out. Like these #s:

                                                                *Clemson +14 1.91 (vs Geo): 1 to win .91

                                                                *TEXAS A&m +1.5 1.91 (vs Not Dame): 1 to win .91
                                                                Some support for these plays:

                                                                *CLEMSON blew the FlaSt game. 2023 record should have been better.
                                                                *Kicking game contributed to 3 of the 4 losses. Walk-on kicker replaced by top prospect.
                                                                *UGA in Atlanta sounds like a Home game. Distance to Clemson only 50 miles further. Should play like a true neutral-site game.

                                                                *I like the coaching matchup in the ND/TxAM game. Don't trust this Irish coach at all.
                                                                *TxAM Ath Dir will view Elko as an upgrade from Fisher. Chance to realize the recruiting talent they've brought in.
                                                                *QB Weigman missed time last year. # flipped, like the Aggies as a Home Dog.
                                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 04-04-11
                                                                  • 37366

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                  1* Fresno St +20.5 1.91: 1 to win .91.
                                                                  ...MICH off the Natl champ win. Wolverines in massive transition. They lose HC, QB, RB, all five Off Linemen.
                                                                  ...FRESNO's losses the last two seasons have mostly come when the Starting QB was injured.
                                                                  ...QB Keene off a sharp performance in a decisive bowl win.
                                                                  ...In addition to Keene, Fresno has a good RB and a solid Off Line. Brought in some transfers to form a solid Def Line.
                                                                  ...Moore in first game as fulltime MICH coach. I give the coaching edge to Tedford, who has been a HC for 17 years.
                                                                  ...Tedford has groomed many QBs. I'm looking for a competitive game.
                                                                  Adding 2nd unit on Fresno +22 1.91: 1 to win .91
                                                                  ...I expect MICH to start out very slow this year. See what they look like in the 1st half.
                                                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                                    • 37366

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Good Luck, everyone. Per usual, these are just my personal opinions. Betting based on how I see the games playing out.
                                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                                      • 37366

                                                                      #69
                                                                      1* North Carolina +2.5 2.00 (at Minn): 1 to win 1.00
                                                                      ...I like this line. Have some good angles.
                                                                      ...Gap is bigger than it appears. NoCarol was +90 net yds/game last year, Minn was -60.
                                                                      ...Minn was a phony 6-7 last year. Two wins vs mid-majors, late 3-pt win vs NEB, bogus win vs Iowa, win vs bad MichSt team.
                                                                      ...The win @Iowa was gift-wrapped by a terrible ref call that wiped out the winning Punt Return TD.
                                                                      ...MINN was 5-7. They made the bowl game only as a fill-in b/c they ran out of qualified bowl teams.
                                                                      ...North Carolina does lose top QB Maye. Rest of the roster looks pretty good.
                                                                      ...Steele wasn't overwhelmed by Maye's #s. Dropoff @QB shouldn't be massive.
                                                                      ...New MINN qb = transfer from New Hampshire. Step-up in class from FCS. Chance to take dog points versus qb that might be shocked by the game-speed.
                                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 04-04-11
                                                                        • 37366

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Update: 11 units of action if you go back to the thread.

                                                                        ...Feel good about this heading into the openers. Tried to find as much good info as I could.
                                                                        ...Lines are now getting hammered out. Should be going to post with at least some BTCL value.

                                                                        Good Luck to all. Hope everyone has a profitable season. It's important to get off to a good start, you want to feel like you're playing with House Money.
                                                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                        Comment
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