2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[vitterd]

Fla is a lock since you mushed the retard in Fla. short timer . We need your Pa. is a lock for Biden prediction next . Lmao !

You are king mush!! You have never had a correct prediction in 13 years.

[dustyy]

I think that makes 4 total newspaper endorsements for Trump. Donnie was out of energy yesterday. Where is this heavy money on Trump? It’s only dumb money.

Again, most informed D's are concerned and you should be too. The largest newspaper in western PA hasn't endorsed a R in almost 50 years and you aren't concerned? The betting markets are getting hammered with Trump money and you aren't concerned? Biden drools out incomprehensible statements in MI and embarrasses Obama by almost pulling a no show at rally yesterday and you aren't concerned? Trump has the SCOTUS in his back pocket and can toss out any and all fraudulent ballots and you aren't concerned?

Pollsters will be an extinct profession in a week.

[RoyBacon]

Again, most informed D's are concerned and you should be too. The largest newspaper in western PA hasn't endorsed a R in almost 50 years and you aren't concerned? The betting markets are getting hammered with Trump money and you aren't concerned? Biden drools out incomprehensible statements in MI and embarrasses Obama by almost pulling a no show at rally yesterday and you aren't concerned? Trump has the SCOTUS in his back pocket and can toss out any and all fraudulent ballots and you aren't concerned?

Pollsters will be an extinct profession in a week.

Vitty has $0.00 bet on this election.

So he can pretend. He's good at that anyway. A lottt of practice.

[JohnGalt2341]

I took the bridge jumper special;

2020 USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - DEMS. WINS BY 280 + ELECTORAL VOTES (ALL ACTION WHENEVER ELECTION TAKES PLACE)10/2923:00
Yes +570
No -730

7300 to win 1000

I was looking at this as well. If I calculated correctly, it's basically an Over/Under for Trump at 129 EV? Or you could look at it as an Over/Under for Biden at 409.

It's just so much Juice for me. I think I will pass but this looks pretty solid.

[Judge Crater]

Biden scratched back a little bit

Betfair
Biden -196
Trump +194

[15805]

I think that makes 4 total newspaper endorsements for Trump. Donnie was out of energy yesterday. Where is this heavy money on Trump? It’s only dumb money.

Even Bloomberg a Trump hating enterprise realizes the interested voting public is shifting in Trumps direction!

(Bloomberg) -- Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.


The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters, who largely back President Donald Trump, compared to voters of color, who overwhelmingly support Biden.
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
The situation is particularly stark in Florida where Republicans currently have a 9.4% turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, a place where analysts say Biden will need a significant margin of victory to carry the state.

[Judge Crater]

Two day old article is a lifetime in the election

Even Bloomberg a Trump hating enterprise realizes the interested voting public is shifting in Trumps direction!

(Bloomberg) -- Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.


The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters, who largely back President Donald Trump, compared to voters of color, who overwhelmingly support Biden.
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
The situation is particularly stark in Florida where Republicans currently have a 9.4% turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, a place where analysts say Biden will need a significant margin of victory to carry the state.

[DwightShrute]

Biden scratched back a little bit

Betfair
Biden -196
Trump +194

Trump is going to win by an even bigger landslide than 2016

[RoyBacon]

Biden scratched back a little bit

Betfair
Biden -196
Trump +194

+179 by tonight. The shift has started.

Closing Betfair line of +138 by 8PM Tues.

[RoyBacon]

I was looking at this as well. If I calculated correctly, it's basically an Over/Under for Trump at 129 EV? Or you could look at it as an Over/Under for Biden at 409.

It's just so much Juice for me. I think I will pass but this looks pretty solid.

Yea, like almost all bridge jumper stuff. It looks good at first glance.

7-1 ish is fair. This could indeed be a landslide one way or the other at least in the electoral college.

[ByeShea]

Two day old article is a lifetime in the election

Not in this election. Trump locked it up months ago. The candidates are fighting down ticket battles now.

[Itsamazing777]

Trump is going to win by an every bigger landslide than 2016

[Judge Crater]

Trumps strongest group is white men, no college degree. That seems to fit for our demographic for sure. If you only read this thread, you would think Trump was a large betting favorite. We will see on Tuesday I guess.

[15805]

Arizona, Bullhead — 24.0% NOT Republican

ARIZONA is fired up and ready to re-elect for @realDonaldTrump!
✅ 23,591 signups for Bullhead City rally
✅ 24.0% NOT Republican
✅ 45.3% (!) did not vote in 2016
Thank you to the thousands of supporters who turned out!
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 28, 2020

[RoyBacon]

Trumps strongest group is white men, no college degree. That seems to fit for our demographic for sure. If you only read this thread, you would think Trump was a large betting favorite. We will see on Tuesday I guess.

It's more income than education.

Trump won the 2016 election by winning the $40k to $100k. Hillary dominated the welfare class by 16% and they split the rich vote.

Most if not all the Biden votes here are the $40k and under variety.

[Judge Crater]

Looks like Trump won every income group above 50K

https://www.statista.com/statistics/631244/voter-turnout-of-the-exit-polls-of-the-2016-elections-by-income/

[DwightShrute]

Trumps strongest group is white men, no college degree. That seems to fit for our demographic for sure. If you only read this thread, you would think Trump was a large betting favorite. We will see on Tuesday I guess.

Trump got 6% of the Black vote in 2016. I think he will get 15%+ this time. If he does, he will win.

[beefcake]

He’s a hack

Vitterd nothing would please me more sir if he is..

[beefcake]

Placed a small wager on the grifter to win. I figure I will either be happier or slightly richer. Go Biden. Vote Blue.

I'm thinking the same thing man.A hedge on our feelings..yes we truly are gamblers..whether we are blue,red or Indy..

[StackinGreen]

There is no path to Quid Pro Joe victory

But there is a path for him to jail.

[vitterd]

Again, most informed D's are concerned and you should be too. The largest newspaper in western PA hasn't endorsed a R in almost 50 years and you aren't concerned? The betting markets are getting hammered with Trump money and you aren't concerned? Biden drools out incomprehensible statements in MI and embarrasses Obama by almost pulling a no show at rally yesterday and you aren't concerned? Trump has the SCOTUS in his back pocket and can toss out any and all fraudulent ballots and you aren't concerned?

Pollsters will be an extinct profession in a week.

The concern is legit ballots being thrown out. Betting markets getting hammered? Line inching up for Biden again.

[Judge Crater]

Betfair just moved 4 cents (maybe some polls)
Biden -200
Trump +198

The concern is legit ballots being thrown out. Betting markets getting hammered? Line inching up for Biden again.

[RoyBacon]

The concern is legit ballots being thrown out. Betting markets getting hammered? Line inching up for Biden again.

Trump is +176 at Pinnacle. Probably the sharpest line. He's fine. Don't tranny shriek but I'm predicting this goes to +173 today and to +139 by Tues night.

[RudyRuetigger]

According to this Forbes article, Republicans have between an 8%-18% lead in early and by mail voting in Texas through 10/26, citing NBC News analysis of information from TargetSmart

[Judge Crater]

Betfair has 321 million bet on it already
At the current price you can bet $234,000 on Biden and $66,000 on Trump ( before it moves 2 cents). I would say that is the sharpest line.

Trump is +176 at Pinnacle. Probably the sharpest line. He's fine. Don't tranny shriek but I'm predicting this goes to +173 today and to +139 by Tues night.

[RudyRuetigger]

Betfair has 321 million bet on it already
At the current price you can bet $234,000 on Biden and $66,000 on Trump ( before it moves 2 cents). I would say that is the sharpest line.

So what you are actually saying is many sharps like Trump

[PromiseLand]

Biden's got Nevada in the bag. Go collect your free money: https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...40513385816064

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5601

[RudyRuetigger]

Biden's got Nevada in the bag. Go collect your free money: https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...40513385816064

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5601

so this site is legal in usa?

[PromiseLand]

Yep, I've gotten a 1099-MISC last 4 years. Can deposit with CC and they payout by check or transfer to bank account.

[RudyRuetigger]

Yep, I've gotten a 1099-MISC last 4 years. Can deposit with CC and they payout by check or transfer to bank account.

Thanks




I assume they send after $600 profit?

[PromiseLand]

Yeah somethin like that. I think my worst year was last year and made over 8k profit. Just a heads up that they hit you with a 5% withdraw fee once you take money out.

[PromiseLand]

Just pulled up my 1099 from them last year

[King Mayan]

Trump is a on Tuesday night!

[Judge Crater]

I guess

If your betting Biden you have to have twice as much available to bet

Betfair has 321 million bet on it already
At the current price you can bet $234,000 on Biden and $66,000 on Trump ( before it moves 2 cents). I would say that is the sharpest line.

[Judge Crater]

On Monday, November 2, Joe Biden will travel to Cleveland, Ohio to discuss bringing Americans together blah blah blah

I would think he would just camp out in PA. They have to have better information than we do, then the Biden team sees the race right now differently than we do.

@NateSilver538

For better or worse, a lot of Biden travel seems oriented around trying to have a clear and unambiguous win rather than maximizing the chances of 270 EV per se.


Seems like maybe they are more concerned about post election court battles than the election itself.