Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Wow! 700 point turn around on piss poor volume today to keep the S&P over the 50 day moving average. I have to applaud the fed and the rest of the plunger team. They worked hard today. Lets see how long they can keep the market in this trading range. I think the Fed will eventually cave and go with the negative rates, and also quantitative easing is happening even though they aren't admitting it.

Even with the games, I still don't see the market S&P closing above 3000 before 2200. Actually I wasn't planning on making public my thoughts of the market getting to and closing below the 2200 mark because of the fake games that are being done, but then yesterday I said it would so I'll stick with it because I really think it is possible for the market to hit 1500! Yeah I said it and not only that I believe it with the right scenarios and Fuk ups.

[Shafted69]

Jerome came to the rescue today

[homie1975]

Jerome came to the rescue today

Shafter
Please explain.

[homie1975]

Is the fed buying junk bond ETFs enough to spur a market rally?

[jjgold]

Market dead

Investors realizing we are in for deep trouble

[Iona]

Market dead

Investors realizing we are in for deep trouble

The most persuasive argument I can make for the Bulls :-)

[homie1975]

ok let's shake off the retail news this morning and get back into some green based on rumors that the WH will likely sign another round of stim

[d2bets]

ok let's shake off the retail news this morning and get back into some green based on rumors that the WH will likely sign another round of stim

Of course the WH will sign stim. Question is whether house dems and repub senate can agree on anything? They will both dig their heels more than last time. I doubt anything happens quick on that.

[homie1975]

Of course the WH will sign stim. Question is whether house dems and repub senate can agree on anything? They will both dig their heels more than last time. I doubt anything happens quick on that.

they will have to agree and do so quickly. with the election in less than 6 mos, it will be political suicide not to take care of main street. both sides know it. the stakes are very high right now.

[d2bets]

they will have to agree and do so quickly. with the election in less than 6 mos, it will be political suicide not to take care of main street. both sides know it. the stakes are very high right now.

Sure, but they want different things. So who gets their way. Compromise, I know, but even that is perspective. They will just vie to argue as to who's not compromising. The stakes are high, but I don't think anything big happens on that front in the next 2-3 weeks. Of course, I could be wrong.

[d2bets]

NVDA went into hyperdrive today up almost 6% blasting through ATH. Weird too because semis had a bad day SOXX down over 2%. NVDA earnings next week Thursday. NVDA up about 70% from the March lows less than 2 months ago. What a buying oppo that was.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the dems passed their give a way bill last night. I think it is time for the Senate to pass their own give a way bill so that we all know about all of the bullshit everybody wants. It will go like this cocaine Mitch will get the liability relief and have to give up on illegal alien issues, voter fraud relief, and other things. Repubs need to have their own wish list like open carry everywhere, instant illegal deportations, severe restrictions on abortions, tax holidays into the next century, anti-"woke" shit, dis banning PBS,NPR and the ACLU and whatever they can think of. Then that way they have more ammunition to combat the bullshit from the other side.

[Roscoe_Word]

Thinking a Bitcoin-like jump might happen and the economy opens and "kicks it up a notch."

Might be a year before we reach a Dow of 34,000 again.

Lets come roaring back. Would be great for morale.

[Iona]

Jay Powell on 60 minutes tomorrow evening @ 7PM (Shortly after futures markets open).

Next weeks earnings:

[KVB]

Props to Iona for the consistency of passing those pictures on to this thread.

[Slurry Pumper]

Props to Iona for the consistency of passing those pictures on to this thread.

Yeah really. A nice snapshot of earnings before and after the bell. Thanks

[homie1975]

28 states showing fewer cases and people starting to fly again , albeit slowly.

I see a good week for the market based on emotion.

[Iona]

The below are bullet points from the 60 Minutes interview with FED Chair Powell to be aired tonight. IMHO, nothing here that he has not said before. Should be interesting to see where equity markets open tomorrow. News flow feels generally positive with the exception of Google antitrust announcement released after the close on Friday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/17/powell-says-a-full-economic-recovery-may-not-happen-without-a-vaccine.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

FED'S POWELL SAYS ASSUMING NOT A SECOND WAVE OF INFECTIONS ECONOMY WILL RECOVER STEADILY THROUGH SECOND HALF OF YEAR

FED'S POWELL SAYS RECOVERY COULD STRETCH THROUGH END OF NEXT YEAR

FED'S POWELL SAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET BACK, BUT IN THE LONGER ECONOMY WILL RECOVER - 60 MINUTES

FED'S POWELL SAYS FULL RECOVERY WILL REQUIRE A VACCINE

[KVB]

...FED'S POWELL SAYS FULL RECOVERY WILL REQUIRE A VACCINE

And this is where the whole thing falls apart.

What he really means is recovery will require us to say there's a vaccine but the fine print will says it likely won't work.

And since people don't read the fine print, they will just assume things are different now that there's a supposed "vaccine."

The virus has already mutated and there will be no reliable vaccine.

We already know this, depsite RNA techniques and methodological advancements in the field.

So why do trust anything else Powell would say?

The great thing about having a clue is that you can tell when others are full of shit.

[alling]

Up on low volume, down on high volume. Sell Mortimer, sell.

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

Well the dems passed their give a way bill last night. I think it is time for the Senate to pass their own give a way bill so that we all know about all of the bullshit everybody wants. It will go like this cocaine Mitch will get the liability relief and have to give up on illegal alien issues, voter fraud relief, and other things. Repubs need to have their own wish list like open carry everywhere, instant illegal deportations, severe restrictions on abortions, tax holidays into the next century, anti-"woke" shit, dis banning PBS,NPR and the ACLU and whatever they can think of. Then that way they have more ammunition to combat the bullshit from the other side.

Except Republicans don't want open carry everywhere...

[homie1975]

And this is where the whole thing falls apart.

What he really means is recovery will require us to say there's a vaccine but the fine print will says it likely won't work.

And since people don't read the fine print, they will just assume things are different now that there's a supposed "vaccine."

The virus has already mutated and there will be no reliable vaccine.

We already know this, depsite RNA techniques and methodological advancements in the field.

So why do trust anything else Powell would say?

The great thing about having a clue is that you can tell when others are full of shit.

KVBer the shock factor of COVID 19 has worn off imo. Even people like me who were wearing masks in early March here in SoCal where it wasn't en vogue at the time, are now in "I dont give a phukk mode". The cold and flu mutates annually but we live with it. Yes this is more contagious and it appears about 13x or so more lethal than the flu, but we're going to need meds like remdesevir and others to come through and then we can at least live with the virus in our midst. Elderly and immune compromised will need to take precautions just like they do with the flu.

I'm getting a strong hunch from my circle that people have moved on and are getting ready to.

The jig for the doomsdayers is up now, and I believe the market will reflect it moving forward with new ATH before 12/31/2020.

[Slurry Pumper]

Except Republicans don't want open carry everywhere...

Its not the desire it is the right, I don't think most libs care about the post office but saving it is included in their bill.

As I see the market in the upcoming week, is pretty much the same as it has been for the last couple of months. I call it building the I-beam of bullshit pattern. They will continue to run up the market and we may even get close to the magical 3000 on the S&P, but sometime it will break down and return to the bottom of the trading range, and we will see if they can build some more bull shit under it for support. If you look at the chart of the S&P for the last couple of months, you can imagine an I-Beam under it holding it up. Much like a cantilevered I-beam, eventually it gets built out too far and it will collapse. We will see what Powell has to say tonight, I'm sure his words will be carefully chosen as to not disrupt the market.

[KVB]

KVBer the shock factor of COVID 19 has worn off imo. Even people like me who were wearing masks in early March here in SoCal where it wasn't en vogue at the time, are now in "I dont give a phukk mode". The cold and flu mutates annually but we live with it. Yes this is more contagious and it appears about 13x or so more lethal than the flu, but we're going to need meds like remdesevir and others to come through and then we can at least live with the virus in our midst. Elderly and immune compromised will need to take precautions just like they do with the flu.

I'm getting a strong hunch from my circle that people have moved on and are getting ready to.

The jig for the doomsdayers is up now, and I believe the market will reflect it moving forward with new ATH before 12/31/2020.

True, there are two endings to a pandemic.

There's the health and medical ending, with a vaccine or herd immunity.

Then there's the social ending. Where people are just done with it, like you're saying.

I just hope when there are spikes, the next round of "shut downs" are done more responsibly.

For example, in Butte county, here in CA, there was a plan to reopen that was quicker than the governor.

But a local pastor didn't want to wait for the phase where churches open and so he, against orders of the state and county, had 180 in church because he felt church was "essential to his life."

Someone tested positive and now they have to quarantine 180 people.

Butte county says thank idiots, people like you jeopardize the whole reopening process.

One point is, I get the protests and need to open, but even then, people won't wait their turn. Everyone so selfish.

The other point is that if you think the shut down fukked things up, the reopenings are going to be far worse.

It's a disaster all around and for those of us plying the markets, it sucks, especially with no sports.

[homie1975]

Futures in green. Market likes Jerome's comments. I feel light and airy and I think the market will too. I see sunny skies this week and a solid move upward

[milwaukee mike]

True, there are two endings to a pandemic.

There's the health and medical ending, with a vaccine or herd immunity.

Then there's the social ending. Where people are just done with it, like you're saying.

I just hope when there are spikes, the next round of "shut downs" are done more responsibly.

For example, in Butte county, here in CA, there was a plan to reopen that was quicker than the governor.

But a local pastor didn't want to wait for the phase where churches open and so he, against orders of the state and county, had 180 in church because he felt church was "essential to his life."

Someone tested positive and now they have to quarantine 180 people.

Butte county says thank idiots, people like you jeopardize the whole reopening process.

One point is, I get the protests and need to open, but even then, people won't wait their turn. Everyone so selfish.

The other point is that if you think the shut down fukked things up, the reopenings are going to be far worse.

It's a disaster all around and for those of us plying the markets, it sucks, especially with no sports.

i always appreciate your posts, but i disagree with this

the health ending is the simple fact that viruses die on their own, and if any immunity matters, it's INDIVIDUAL IMMUNITY

every athlete and healthy person that has tested positive for covid DIDN'T EVEN KNOW THEY HAD IT!

there was never a vaccine or herd immunity for h1n1, sars, ebola, swine flu, any corona virus or other virus, and yet we never heard anything about a vaccine for any of those things (even though they were all projected to be just as deadly, just as contagious)... now all we hear about is that the only solution is a vaccine, just like all we heard about after 9/11 was terrorists

the reopenings aren't gonna be worse, as you said people are fed up... the amount of tyranny you get is exactly as much as you accept, and nobody is accepting it any more

[homie1975]

^ mike this COVID 19 is much more contagious and many fold more americans have died from it. It has eclipsed the 2017 flu deaths in 1/3 the time.

[KVB]

i always appreciate your posts, but i disagree with this

the health ending is the simple fact that viruses die on their own, and if any immunity matters, it's INDIVIDUAL IMMUNITY

every athlete and healthy person that has tested positive for covid DIDN'T EVEN KNOW THEY HAD IT!

there was never a vaccine or herd immunity for h1n1, sars, ebola, swine flu, any corona virus or other virus, and yet we never heard anything about a vaccine for any of those things (even though they were all projected to be just as deadly, just as contagious)... now all we hear about is that the only solution is a vaccine, just like all we heard about after 9/11 was terrorists

the reopenings aren't gonna be worse, as you said people are fed up... the amount of tyranny you get is exactly as much as you accept, and nobody is accepting it any more

Don't misunderstand me mike. I didn't say that was the end to THIS pandemic. We are seeing the social ending to this pandemic.

The, or any virus could theoretically die out if we were to reach herd immunity, or there is a vaccine, it's death a direct side effect. Otherwise, it's containment measures.

There will be no reliable COVID - 19 vaccine, accept that. As far as the others you mentioned, there aren't vaccines but there are ways they are being dealt with.

Ebola outbreaks occur regularly and we recently had a bad one, but it is contained. You don't here about it, it is not a pandemic.

Sars, well that's what this novel coronavirus that causes COVID -19 turned out to be, its SARS CoV-2.

Just more proof we will never have a vaccine and any vaccine will be declared unreliable, probably right on the label, due to mutations.

None of things you mentioned have died out, nor will they.

We live with virus on this planet and the most successful ones aren't the ones that kill us, they are the one's that keep you alive long enough spread. Or better yet, not kill you, like all the other corona colds.

The real problem is that the more deadly sars, mers, and likely this new one is that immunity for these viruses are shown to least 1-2 years.

None of the big ones you're thinking of have a permanent immunity. So they might not die out either.
Reaching the end of this pandemic from a health perpsecitve will likely mean contained outbreaks and "let's hope we called it right" vaccine mixes to aid the population.

But don't worry about that, the social ending will keep it out of the news.

Just like all the other ones.

[Shafted69]

Jerome says GDP could shrink more than 30% and everyone should keep buying while he props up the market.

Just like Bernanke in 2008, he see no depression. He also said it's going to be a very sharp down turn

with 20% to 25% unemployment and full recovery may not happen until a vaccine is found.

[homie1975]

Jerome didn't tell us anything we didnt know to be honest. Just hearing him say it and not be a doomsdayer is what fueled this premarket approaching 300 pts in green

[Goat Milk]

Any good solar companies/tips? That's the future.

[jjgold]

buy and hold solid companies 20 years

anyone trading in and out a lot goes broke

[homie1975]

[Iona]

Thanks KVB and Slurry Pumper for the kind words - much appreciated !

Earning releases for after the close today and before the bell tomorrow:

[milwaukee mike]

penn just keeps ripping, up to 21.30

unreal that it was in the 3s

i would still be a buyer of opportunities in hotels/movies (bhr-b/ht-c/mcs)... for god's sake the amc bonds are still trading at 24 cents on the dollar!

amc has enough cash through november, at that point there will be a ridiculous amount of blockbusters on the schedule, even if they refuse to show universal movies