Laying horses - Starting from Feb-12-2018

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 06:27 AM

Good luck! Race is taking place already, under 400m to go.

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 06:35 AM

Races 3 & 4 in Scottsville are not interesting.

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 08:50 AM

1st race in Navan - so many underdogs, someone must be barking:

Take a look at these just FYI

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 08:59 AM

Next one I'm looking at is this one in Race 2 in Navan in 20 minutes:

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 09:17 AM

Maggio Verdict: NO BET.

Odds dropped to 67, and despite its age, considering the team behind this one - I'm not touching this one.

Good luck to anyone who does!

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 10:03 AM

I tried to place bets on the past few races with some few huge underdogs but no one was matched, it looks like some sharks are dropping 1000 odds on those already (i.e. they risk $10,000 to win $10). I can't compete with that.

The only feasible one is in 45 minutes and the only chance to grab something in it is in live betting.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-18, 10:45 AM

Very interesting, arie.

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 11:03 AM

Managed to get this one from Market Rasen but only in live betting ..

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 11:18 AM

Not going to touch Douglastar. Odds too low (67).

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 11:41 AM

Looking @ the last one in Navan today in 20 minutes:

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 11:51 AM

Got a very small amount matched, can only try to bet live now... too many big sharks on BetFair lay these horses.

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 12:03 PM

First time I've ever laid 2 horses simultaneously

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 12:13 PM

And for the first time after that big loss in the beginning of the thread - I am in a positive ROI.

Current P&L for February 2018:

Currently 8.11 EUR of profits (the big loss has been "erased" finally).

**jjgold** · 02-18-18, 12:46 PM

What a grind !

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-18, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

What a grind !

Mind your own business, Mr Clean.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-18, 04:37 PM

arie, keep em coming. Good luck, pal.

When we get closer to Triple Crown time...I'd think you would find a lot of over-priced horses. Everyone loves to take a flyer on a longshot.

**jjgold** · 02-18-18, 04:54 PM

You have to be right too much that’s the problem just to break even good experiment but that’s all It ever will be

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-18-18, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

You have to be right too much that’s the problem just to break even good experiment but that’s all It ever will be

STFU, u donkey.

**jjgold** · 02-18-18, 06:30 PM

This is going to end in a disaster but at least the kids Trying

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 09:32 PM

Hi guys,

As I mentioned previously - I treat this as an investment, and I'm trying to take the "gambling" part away from it - but in the end of the day each investment has some type of "gambling" in it.

Is it going to work? Only time will tell ... I set very clear rules for which horses to lay, and that's what I've been doing so far.

Today there are not many options in 9Wickets - see for yourself:

For me US, India and France are out of the question - no bets there whatsoever (US can be an exception but under extremely rare circumstances, I just don't like the US odds).

The only option for the next few hours is Maryborough, Australia - which is Harness Racing ... I haven't seen anything particular there but will keep an eye on that one.

Other than that it's just waiting for the races in South Africa & UK, no rush here.

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 10:21 PM

This Harness Racing in Maryborough is taking place in 5 minutes, if the odds on Glendaloch will go high to 81 I will take it.

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 10:28 PM

Good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-18-18, 10:35 PM

The only next interesting race is in 1 hour and 40 minutes approx, nothing much to see before then.

I believe there is an All Star game taking place right now?
Initial odds were 333 ?
Now live line is 301.5 end of 3rd quarter ?

I wouldn't bet it myself but if I had to choose - I would take the OVER 301.5 in live because you should "buy low and sell high".

Anyway I'm not touching it but good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

The only next interesting race is in 1 hour and 40 minutes approx, nothing much to see before then.
I believe there is an All Star game taking place right now?
Initial odds were 333 ?
Now live line is 301.5 end of 3rd quarter ?

I wouldn't bet it myself but if I had to choose - I would take the OVER 301.5 in live because you should "buy low and sell high".

Anyway I'm not touching it but good luck!

And good thing I didn't, game ended with 293 pts, was interesting but only viewable, not "invest"able lol... anyway let's get back to what's been working so far.

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 12:12 AM

The bet has been placed, 4 minutes to go, Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 02:25 AM

How do you avoid these?

Biggest Winners in UK Horse Racing History (Flat, National Hunt, and All Weather Racing)

http://www.tipsterchallenge.com/biggest_winners.php

Longest Priced Winners in UK Horse Racing History

The simple answer is there is no answer ... a longshot horse can win a race ... but overall I was checking those winners in the table, the majority of them were 3-4 years old or younger (Lights of Broadway who won in 2012 was 6 years old back then) ...

The good thing about BetFair and betting exchanges is they have an impact over the odds, and recently most big longshot winners are 50-1 or 60-1 which are still rare as well.

It's very subjective, but overall you can see the no. of longshot winners is quite slim, in comparison to the number of races taking place on a day to day basis.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 02-19-18, 04:38 AM

ARIE, keep bangin these out. Ignore the doubters.

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 05:55 AM

I forgot to include this one from the morning, was the last OZ race for today:

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

ARIE, keep bangin these out. Ignore the doubters.

Thanks!

Good luck with Race 2 in Flamingo, South Africa:

**steven12** · 02-19-18, 07:09 AM

I spent 20 minutes to read this thread, give my 20 minutes back

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 08:15 AM

Sorry for posting this late, was not able to post it sooner, race is already over.

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by steven12

I spent 20 minutes to read this thread, give my 20 minutes back

Here you go.
This race starts in 25 minutes (approx).

You can lay it and get some $ back to cover your 20 minutes.
This horse has extremely high odds of 151-201 in many sites (Interbet.co.za has it for 201, Bet365 is more conservative offering only 101 but it has many more users so you could understand the longshot bettors as well in this site).

BetFair Sharks are already on it, you can't lay (=sell) it for less than 360 to 1 at the moment.

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 09:10 AM

Next I'm going against this one:

It's in Race 2 in Carlisle, it starts in about 20 minutes, you have to sell it so early before the Sharks will move the price higher, it's such a shame there are too many sharks in BetFair.

Good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 10:12 AM

This one is 201 @ Interbet.co.za - Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 02-19-18, 11:16 AM

Next one is in 10 minutes approx, Good Luck!

The bet: