The Official 2017 CFL Thread

**KVB** · 10-27-17, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

I can’t do Saskatchewan -16.5 tonight, even if they have the ability to cover.

Will pass but go riders!

Probably a good call, I was looking at it too, it's just too much.

**KVB** · 10-27-17, 08:34 PM

I did counter the sharp forecast with UNDER 51.5 (-107) for Montreal vs. Saskatchewan.

Good Luck.

**Coolcanuck79** · 10-27-17, 09:02 PM

Not touching the late game. Hoping to go 3-0 on the OTT game. Need it to finish as-is.

**Ra77er** · 10-27-17, 09:23 PM

Nice job guys

**KVB** · 10-27-17, 09:26 PM

This thread had that first game down with the Ottawa win and Hamilton cover.

Well done.

**Coolcanuck79** · 10-27-17, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by Coolcanuck79

I am leaning towards the over and a Ottawa ML win but Hamilton cover. Nice night here in Ottawa for football.

Game, set match ... go Redblacks!!!!

**Hngkng** · 10-27-17, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I did counter the sharp forecast with UNDER 51.5 (-107) for Montreal vs. Saskatchewan.

Good Luck.

This looks like a great bet. Montreal should put in their backup QBs soon

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 02:07 PM

The sharp forecast says Winnipeg wins with 33 or 34 points to British Columbia’s 23 points.

The stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 30 or 31 points to British Columbia’s 20 points. Unsophisticated methods using season averages and medians give Winnipeg a 5 to 7 point win with higher Totals of over 60 points. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning 30-26.

The Total is just below the public gauge and between the forecasts. It’s a sharp line and at this point metrics indicate the sharp forecast could succeed. I am passing for this first game today as I am still not pressing the sharp forecast with bold trades, but the OVER seems to be the play.

I think the spread opened a little low here in relation to the forecasts and with BC in such a slide, the books are getting further action on Winnipeg they likely anticipated. The line has moved from an early open of Winnipeg -5.5 to -6.5 and cold very well hit -7 before kickoff.

The contrarian in me sees a potential BC play on the spread here as the line moves upward and that same streak breaking contrarian gets emboldened when he sees that the sharp forecast has been successful against the spread in the last 5 CFL games.

The last time the sharp forecast was successful against the spread for 5 consecutive games, not counting a push, it went to 7 consecutive games and the 8^th game failed as Hamilton got their first win of the season in week 11. One of the points here is that money is being stacked a bit in this late season and perhaps we see the sharp forecast fail in the playoffs; it can’t be all give as there must be some take.

Back to the first game today, if money is being stacked, perhaps BC gets a cover against the spread. It starts to look like a decent contrarian play but when I look deeper the numbers don’t quite put me there. There are recent spread results for each team that have them not covering both the open and close of some games; they landed in the middle. This recent ambiguity causes question as to where money lands and depending on whether you are looking at openers, which can be very important, or closers, you get a different conclusion. I emphasize recent as opposed to games further back in the season.

Whether dealing with tracking results or stats before the game, being able to weight recent performance into the equation is very important; it helps to keep the predictions dynamic.

As of 1 hour to kickoff, I’m passing on countering the sharp forecast but may rethink this notion as the +7 likely becomes available.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 02:10 PM

I wanted to add one more thing about that forecast performance. The season is sort of perpetual and it’s not always about a lead up to things; there is also aftermath. It’s worth noting that the sharp forecast started this recent 5 game run right after failing when, of all teams, Calgary finally picked up a loss.

**Hngkng** · 10-28-17, 02:13 PM

Honestly, both these games don’t mean much today probably backups getting some playing time too. I am passing on both officially.

If I was forced to bet. It would be BC and Calgary.

**Coolcanuck79** · 10-28-17, 02:14 PM

I'm rolling with BC +7 -110 and Under 55 -110 (Bodog lines)

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 02:25 PM

I like what you guys are saying about BC and BC Calgary seems like a reasonable two pick.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 02:40 PM

With this talk of forecast performance, it’s fair to show what game two today has in store.

The sharp forecast shows Edmonton winning with 24 points to Calgary’s 23 or 24 points. Note that this forecast also offers a tie, but never does it call for a Calgary moneyline win.

The stacking forecast says Calgary wins with 27 points to Edmonton’s 23 or 24 points. Methods using season numbers give Calgary the 9 to 14 point win in games ringing from 49 to 54 points, respectively. The public gauge has Calgary winning 31-23.

I can see a few reasons why there is pressure on the Under this game, including the numbers and this Total has moved lower but is trading at a few different numbers between 52.5 and 54. I think the trading is light here and I’d like to see what the game one pace does to that market.

The spread is between the forecasts and is also a tight line.

Yesterday we saw perfect settlement with the Underdog and Over in game one and the Favorite and Under in game two. I agree that these games carry less meaning so it can be a bit of a gamble here.

The BC and Calgary spread two pick would make the sharp forecast 2-2 against the spread this week and makes some sense. I could also see both favorites covering today as the end of the season underdog festival winds down. This is another reason for passing on the first game today.

Naturally this first game could show some ambiguity on both the spread and Total as we approach the kickoff of game two.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 02:48 PM

If anything, Winnipeg has some motivation to get a home playoff game and needs to win to get there. If Winnipeg rolls over BC, the Edmonton failure could be the settlement the market seeks. It also gives us a few reasons to buy Calgary, which doesn't necessarily bode well for Calgary.

The last time Calgary and Edmonton played Calgary was favored by 6 and won 25-22 in the final game of that infamous week 12.

**Hngkng** · 10-28-17, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by KVB

If anything, Winnipeg has some motivation to get a home playoff game and needs to win to get there. If Winnipeg rolls over BC, the Edmonton failure could be the settlement the market seeks. It also gives us a few reasons to buy Calgary, which doesn't necessarily bode well for Calgary.

The last time Calgary and Edmonton played Calgary was favored by 6 and won 25-22 in the final game of that infamous week 12.

True:

Winnipeg win OR Edmonton loss = Winnipeg clinches second place

**Hngkng** · 10-28-17, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by KVB

If anything, Winnipeg has some motivation to get a home playoff game and needs to win to get there. If Winnipeg rolls over BC, the Edmonton failure could be the settlement the market seeks. It also gives us a few reasons to buy Calgary, which doesn't necessarily bode well for Calgary.

The last time Calgary and Edmonton played Calgary was favored by 6 and won 25-22 in the final game of that infamous week 12.

That was the week where teams dominated at home, then in the rematch, the other team won.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

That was the week where teams dominated at home, then in the rematch, the other team won.

Some classic CFL give and take there.

I passed on BC +7, there are just too many scenarios of money flow that I can make with a different result in the first game, whether there's an upset, just a dog covering in a loss, or the favorite rolling.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 03:20 PM

BC out first and early.

If I were on them we'd see the sharks.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

This looks like a great bet. Montreal should put in their backup QBs soon

Not sure if you saw the game. Naturally, Saskatchewan scored the "meaningless" TD as time expired to send the game OVER, but the refs called a hold, took away the TD, and it kept the game at 49 points.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 03:45 PM

Winnipeg is basically a pick em in the live markets.

That's getting to be a pretty good price this early.

**Hngkng** · 10-28-17, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Not sure if you saw the game. Naturally, Saskatchewan scored the "meaningless" TD as time expired to send the game OVER, but the refs called a hold, took away the TD, and it kept the game at 49 points.

Oh you definitely owe Bakari Grant a huge thank you. He clowned around, and got stripped at the 1 yard line, then was the guy who had the hold on that TD run with no time left. He single handedly took off 2 TDs for the Riders.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...I am passing for this first game today as I am still not pressing the sharp forecast with bold trades, but the OVER seems to be the play...

...I’m passing on countering the sharp forecast but may rethink this notion as the +7 likely becomes available...

The Over has come and it sure looks like BC is going to cover here.

I may not have had a bold play, but the analysis of this first game was accurate.

If Winnipeg loses then the sharp forecast will be 1-2 against the moneyline this week. The final game has a sharp forecast of a tie or Edmonton win.

The sharp forecast has not lost against the moneyline more than twice in any week since I began posting in week 4.

This last game is a close forecast though.

**Coolcanuck79** · 10-28-17, 05:58 PM

1-1 in the first game.

Going with Calgary ML and under in the 2nd game.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 06:03 PM

I'm passing on any bold trades for the second game today. I've tried a couple of times to counter the sharp forecast moneyline into 3 losses in a week and I failed each time.

I mentioned that Edmonton could be a tough team in the playoffs and they could start now. Edmonton will be playing to win and we declared Calgary to be on cruise control a couple of weeks ago.

I can't take Calgary here, and I'm not pressing the sharp forecast.

**KVB** · 10-28-17, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by Coolcanuck79

1-1 in the first game.

Going with Calgary ML and under in the 2nd game.

Good Luck Canuck.

Even with a pick 'em partially predicted, the sharp forecast hasn't failed on three moneylines in one week all season. There are only two weeks left and a Calgary win today would do it.

**Hngkng** · 10-28-17, 06:39 PM

All the best to you two today! Personally I am passing on both.

**Hngkng** · 11-03-17, 05:05 PM

Montreal, Calgary, Winnipeg all starting backup QBs tonight.

**KVB** · 11-03-17, 05:26 PM

The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 10 points. The line opened at 53 and has moved to 50.5. While the raw score is nearly 60 points, an Over bet is not going to be triggered here for tracking purposes with the adjusted score because a 50 point total is still being predicted. This is the first time it this has happened with the adjusted scores all year. Every other 40 or more prediction this season has come with another prediction large enough to bring an Over play without question.

I’ll admit, it’s hard to refine the “40 or more” individual score prediction because of the overall frequency of those high scores.

The stacking forecast is the same as the sharp forecast with Hamilton winning with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 10 points. The public gauge has Hamilton 33-23.

The line opened with Hamilton -12.5 and has moved up to -15 in some places, towards the forecast.

This is the last week of the season and I was hoping for a 4 pick moneyline parlay countering the sharp forecast but this week there are only two moneylines predicted. I’ve decided to just do one two pick parlay for today’s games.

First, the sharp forecast for the second game has a direct tie, even in the raw score moneyline score, with both Winnipeg and Calgary scoring 27 or 28 points.

The stacking forecast shows Calgary winning with 27 or 28 points to Winnipeg’s 20 points. The public gauge says has Calgary 30-23.

The offered line is close to the stacking forecast and public gauge and has moved from the -9.5 open towards all the numbers. I think the book opened with -9.5, just below the 10, in hopes that they could add to Winnipeg money with contrarian and suspicious players who have seen this just shy of 10 line result in the underdog covering.

Because of the way the season has gone, I have decided to counter the sharp forecast in terms of the spread this week with a two pick parlay. I have picked up Montreal Alouettes +15.5 (-120) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Calgary Stampeders -8.5 (-110) over Winnipeg Blue Bombers in a Two Pick parlay that pays +250.

I have also picked up, for the first game today, Montreal Alouettes +15 (-106) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 11-03-17, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Montreal, Calgary, Winnipeg all starting backup QBs tonight.

It's the last week of season, it's a tough one to bet but I think countering the sharp forecast is as good a bet as any for this weekend. Historically, the sharp forecast has taken a real shit in week 20...lol.

That forecast only has two moneyline predictions this week...Hamilton to win and Saskatchewan to win. It's the first week with only two ML predictions all season; somehow I doubt they both pay.

**KVB** · 11-03-17, 05:41 PM

I also picked up Montreal Alouettes +568 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck.

**Coolcanuck79** · 11-03-17, 05:56 PM

I'll join you on Montreal +15.

**KVB** · 11-03-17, 06:00 PM

This is their last chance Canuck, the Alouettes and their bettors have waited a long time for this, and they get 15 points as well.

Let's get it.

**Hngkng** · 11-03-17, 06:03 PM

Seems like suicide with Montreal. But I’m on +15.0 too.

Also on winnipeg +8.0

**KVB** · 11-03-17, 06:20 PM

I know it's a bit crazy , but I picked up Montreal Alouettes +17.5 (-119) LIVE over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 11-03-17, 06:59 PM

I considered the UNDER on this first game even though there technically isn't an OVER forecast prediction.

My point is that I think it's a good idea to counter the sharp forecast Total predictions as well.

For the second game tonight, the opening line was close to the forecast of 54-56 point at 53.5 but has moved lower. I think the Under in game two could be a good bet, and that line continues to drop.