I’m most likely taking the points with Saskatchewan. Calgary is on cruise control and hasn’t blown out anyone in a while.
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I'll take the under in this one.Comment -
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Duron Carter with a pick 6!!Comment -
I really like Edmonton to win outright tonight.Comment -
I may have passed on the best play of the weekend. That moneyline payout would have offset some of those bold plays near the end of the first half of the season.
I usually don't express much regret because the numbers drive decisions but I may have missed the boat with yesterday's game.
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The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 30 points to Toronto’s 23 or 24 points.
The stacking forecast has a tie with each team scoring 27 points and Toronto getting the moneyline edge in the raw score. Many unsophisticated methods using season numbers actually give Winnipeg a win by a few points with Totals in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. The public gauge is along these lines with Winnipeg winning 30-27.
Again I’m a little short on time here but after the Calgary loss I think we are starting that sharp forecast pullback. This line opened very early as a pick and has moved away from the sharp forecast and the other numbers to Toronto -2.5.
I don’t see Winnipeg winning this game. This line movement and indications that the public like Toronto will likely send contrarian money to Winnipeg. I have metrics indicating that money will fall, along with metrics showing the sharp forecast in a slide against the moneyline and spread.
Like Yesterday, I am passing on a bold trade on Toronto as it is the first game of the day (the second will begin well after the first game ends today). Further, the line on Toronto has already moved taking us out of a range for both the spread and moneyline for a trade countering the sharp forecast.
It’s the same story for the Total. This line is fairly well placed and I am not pressing the sharp forecast with bold plays. There is some but not enough reason to counter the forecast with an Over play.
Good Luck whatever you play.
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The sharp forecast agrees here. Here are the numbers...
The sharp forecast say Edmonton wins 30 points to British Columbia’s 23 or 24 points.
The stacking forecast shows British Columbia winning with 27 or 28 points to Edmonton’s 24 or 25 points. Again, many of those unsophisticated methods show an upset with totals in the mid to upper 50’s. The public gauge has BC winning 30-27.
This is the same sharp forecast adjusted numbers as the first game (raw numbers differ slightly). Further, the basic use of averages and medians agrees again with the sharp forecast, as it did in the first game today. This time, however, the stacking forecast and public gauge side with the favorite.
The sharp forecast calls for the upset in both games today. We would expect one to succeed and one fail; but it may not be successful on either. I’ll get back to this after the first game.
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Taking Edmonton moneylineComment -
The sharp forecast has failed on the first two moneylines this week and I think we could be seeing the end of the season slide. We have not seen the sharp forecast fail against the moneyline three times in any week this season. We could see it lose all four times this week.
I do believe the best bet this weekend has passed with Saskatchewan but, consistent with the natural give and take of the markets, I have picked up British Columbia Lions -128 and -2 (-105) over Edmonton Eskimos.
Good Luck.
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I went against you on this one. I think Edmonton could have a good playoff run this year and may take it easy until then.
This is getting to be a difficult time of year to place bets, with only a couple of weeks left. It can be tough to find those gems, and I think Saskatchewan was one of them. They may make a playoff run themselves, playing the role of giant killer again.
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I didn't have much time, so I was short on the insight today. I think this line, with BC favored, reflects a bit about Edmonton already preparing for the playoffs but at the same time it serves to split the money in a way that allows for the money on the sharp forecast to fail a third time.
I think the books knew they would be getting underdog money with the BC moneyline opening at -2.5 and I think they were not showing that pressure in total. They are getting some favorite money now, on game day, after the underdog covered in the first game. Otherwise, this line has been between the sharp forecast and the numbers, providing further split.
Had the line moved to Edmonton favored, there would be increased pressure on Edmonton, and the books may take too much on that side.
If the sharp forecast is going to slide a third time, it's going to do it when the money is more split among the numbers, especially when you compare it to the first two games this week. The numbers agreed with Calgary on the moneyline and spread and they agreed on Winnipeg, with the sharp forecast showing a tie. Both of those teams lost.
This time there is disagreement and between the sharp forecast and the other numbers. This provides a clear cut choice between one and the other. The contrarian has already profited twice from going against the numbers and metrics indicate the natural give and take of the market will fit in with a contrarian loss. Just enough money has been sent to Edmonton to allow the natural give and take of a two game day to play out.
The Total line split the money well and once again provides a minefield for bettors. I felt it was best to pass there. The problem is that the Total offers the losing play in the two pick parlay; bettors just don’t realize it yet.
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I'm trying to get a LIVE line with Edmonton kicking the field goal to take the first lead.
The LIVE lines are no better than they were pregame, actually they are even worse. This is a good sign for BC, not so much for Edmonton.
Of course, there's a lot of game left.
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I picked up BC Lions +140 LIVE and +3.5 (-119) LIVE over Edmonton Eskimos.
I'm betting on the unprecedented for this season, yet anticipated, failure of the sharp forecast here.
Good Luck.
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Wow is all I can sayComment -
The sharp forecast says Hamilton wins with 39 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points.
The stacking forecast has Hamilton winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17 points. Using the same unsophisticated methods mentioned before with season long stats, averages, medians, etc, we get a closer game with Hamilton winning by 3 or 5 points with Totals in the low to mid 50’s. The public gauge is along these lines with Hamilton winning 28-25.
The sharp forecast managed to split yesterday’s games along the moneyline, but not the spread and is now 2-1 against the spread and 1-2 against the moneyline this week. I still have indications that the sharp forecast will be in failure as the regular season winds down.
Again, I am a little short for time but Montreal has failed in many different spots this season, obviously, and has done so in a couple of swing games. Hamilton has covered some immense spreads in the second half of the season, resulting in some give and take from the first half of the season.
Speaking of give and take, we’ve seen plenty when it comes to underdogs and favorites within a given week. It’s tough to get all four dogs or favorites to come in any given week and we’ve seen the swing game bring that settlement often.
This week could be different as Hamilton is absorbing some of that settlement money as the favorite.
Montreal’s need to cover, the position in the rotation, the sharp forecast’s need to fail against both the spread and moneyline, the contrarian view seeking settlement, and the agreement among the numbers are just some of the indicators I have that have led me to pick up Montreal Alouettes +148 and +3.5 (-103) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
I haven’t failed too many times this season trying to get Montreal to cover, not as many as trying to get Calgary to fail, and am willing to take the risk here, countering the forecast.
I was able to get other numbers as well and picked up Montreal Alouettes +145 and +3.5 (-104) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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We’re head to head again. On Hamilton -3.5. All the best!Comment -
Once again the sharp forecast holds strong while the bold plays to counter it fail.
This week, the sharp forecast finished 3-1 against the spread, 2-2 against the moneyline and 2-2 against the Totals.
Since going 1-3 against the spread in it's worst week, week 12, the sharp forecast is 18-4-1 against the closing spread.
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Let’s beat the CFL next week!
See you all on Friday.Comment -
Hamilton to win tonight?Comment -
The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 33 or 34 points to Ottawa’s 19 or 20 points.
The stacking forecast says Hamilton wins with 30 points to Ottawa’s 22 points. Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians show Ottawa winning by about 10 points with Totals of 53 to 58 points. The public gauge says Ottawa wins 28-23.
Both the sharp forecast and stacking forecast predict an upset against the moneyline with Hamilton winning. The line opened catering to the public numbers with Ottawa -7 and has seen pressure toward the forecasts on Hamilton but metrics do indicate that the sharp forecast will fail against the moneyline here. What it does against the spread is far more open but with the favorite winning, it most certainly can cover.
The sharp forecast predicts a 52 to 54 point game; right in line with the market. The market is also very close to the other numbers. There are indications that this game could go Under and the public seems to be thinking that way as well. There isn’t enough here to trade and with so many groups sidelined it’s best to pass on what looks to be a very light volume Total.
We are entering the final two weeks of the season and I expect the sharp forecast to slide a bit, something I’ve been saying for a while it seems. I’m passing on both the side and Total here and strongly warn against taking the Hamilton upset, or even the underdog.
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I am leaning towards the over and a Ottawa ML win but Hamilton cover. Nice night here in Ottawa for football.Comment -
Im officially on Hamilton +6.5; all the best guys!Comment -
This is the first game today and the first this week. I think we've seen a lot from Hamilton early and picked up Ottawa Redblacks +10.5 (-119) over Hamilton tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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The sharp forecast says Saskatchewan wins with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 13 points.
The stacking forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 10 points. Again those less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians show basically an 18 point Saskatchewan win with a Total of 52 points. The public gauge shows Saskatchewan winning 35-13.
All the numbers are in agreement and the high line shows it. In terms of the spread, Montreal is getting plenty of public action on the high line which is combined with pressure for them to cover a spread. The forecast numbers and bettors will keep this line balanced and Saskatchewan coming off of beating Calgary will also help put money on the favorite.
As we see the first game appear to be the underdog we should also see pressure on the favorite for game two today.
In terms of the Total, there is some pressure on the Under and the public may be there as well. The line is well placed splitting the forecasts and we still have time before making a decision here.
We’ve seen a 17 point line once before when Calgary crushed Montreal 59-11 in week 15 and we could see the underdog tonight in a version of give and take for Montreal. Unfortunately, that may just add to the give and take reasons to buy Montreal and may represent just another situation in the market for Montreal to take down. Both Calgary and Montreal have served this role this season and with Calgary breaking last week, perhaps we’ll have to wait one more week to see Montreal cover the spread.
We still have time to make a decision on this second game but all signs point to a pass on the spread.
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Of course, that was a LIVE bet and I went with the moneyline with Ottawa Redblacks +302 LIVE over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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I considered the Ottawa -6 second half line.
Hamilton is already back to an underdog live.
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I can’t do Saskatchewan -16.5 tonight, even if they have the ability to cover.
Will pass but go riders!Comment
