This has literally been asked on every page of this thread.
Comment
uup115
SBR Sharp
09-28-11
483
#809
My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->
Ranked in unit of bet size
6 Houston (no play) 6 San Diego -3 5 Philadelphia -4.5
Modified system added games.
7 Arizona -2.5
4 Cincinnati -3
4 New England -8.5 *Any full point movement for/against or key number (3,7,10) move for/against will make me adjust my risk +/- by 20%. Shop your lines!
Comment
KidSeoul
SBR MVP
11-27-05
1203
#810
Great thread! Thanks so much for the useful info!
Comment
uup115
SBR Sharp
09-28-11
483
#811
(units) (rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)
6 Houston (no play) N/P 6* San Diego -3/? Pending 5/4 Philadelphia -4.5/-6 W
Modified system added games.
7/5.5 Arizona -2.5/-3.5 W 4/4 Cincinnati -3/-3 P 4/4 New England -8.5/-9 W
This week we went 3-0-1 with a +13.5 unit win with 1 game pending.Total for the season is now 18-14-1 with +7.6 units profit (with one game pending). *San Diego -3 will be a 6, 7 or 5 unit play depending the line available.
I have been following the contest since last year but damn its so bad that their weekly card comes out on wednesday and the picks are available on saturday... like hell the spreads change so much all the time. For example they had Titans for +2,5. I got in at +1 and for me its a push, they won. Same last week with the Saints Panthers. The site had them for -4,5. In reality after brees was out it jumped -10. Panthers won by 5 if I remember
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#813
Consensus went 2-0 or 1-0-1 depending on your Titans line. And SD tonight was a top consensus play. 5 weeks in and so far it has been doing well.
Comment
jmathes
SBR MVP
02-19-09
2385
#814
It's good to see that this thread is still going. I found my gold mine and if you do your homework you can too. I have literally filtered out about 100 different approaches to this contest. It's all about how you use this information not who you follow. Whatever you do following consensus plays or past winners isn't the answer
Comment
SEAHAWKHARRY
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
11-29-07
26068
#815
Originally posted by 16kredit
I have been following the contest since last year but damn its so bad that their weekly card comes out on wednesday and the picks are available on saturday... like hell the spreads change so much all the time. For example they had Titans for +2,5. I got in at +1 and for me its a push, they won. Same last week with the Saints Panthers. The site had them for -4,5. In reality after brees was out it jumped -10. Panthers won by 5 if I remember
Buy points
Comment
Capybara
SBR Posting Legend
08-17-08
11803
#816
Originally posted by jmathes
It's good to see that this thread is still going. I found my gold mine and if you do your homework you can too. I have literally filtered out about 100 different approaches to this contest. It's all about how you use this information not who you follow. Whatever you do following consensus plays or past winners isn't the answer
LOL, mathes, what kind of post is this? You "found your gold mine" but you're not going to share it or share any tips re: the general ballpark of what you're even talking about? Come on, bro, bad form. ;-)
Anyway, nice work in here yesterday, boys, looks like the systems did well!
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#817
Originally posted by Capybara
LOL, mathes, what kind of post is this? You "found your gold mine" but you're not going to share it or share any tips re: the general ballpark of what you're even talking about? Come on, bro, bad form. ;-)
Anyway, nice work in here yesterday, boys, looks like the systems did well!
I thought the same thing but wasn't going to respond. That's a lot of words in the response yet none went to explaining "gold mine" he figured out. I guess some don't like to share information that could possibly help the thread. To each their own.
Comment
jmathes
SBR MVP
02-19-09
2385
#818
Originally posted by Capybara
LOL, mathes, what kind of post is this? You "found your gold mine" but you're not going to share it or share any tips re: the general ballpark of what you're even talking about? Come on, bro, bad form. ;-)
Anyway, nice work in here yesterday, boys, looks like the systems did well!
Gold mine is a big exaggeration. I have found something that has proved to do well the last 6-7 years but nothing crazy. Unfortunately there is not much history or contestants to this contest beyond that. Some years it yields more units than others but all in all it does pretty well. The worst it has done was 2 years ago and it still produced about 6 units. I have my reservations about sharing things I find because we all know good things always come to an end.
Comment
Capybara
SBR Posting Legend
08-17-08
11803
#819
Originally posted by jmathes
Gold mine is a big exaggeration. I have found something that has proved to do well the last 6-7 years but nothing crazy. Unfortunately there is not much history or contestants to this contest beyond that. Some years it yields more units than others but all in all it does pretty well. The worst it has done was 2 years ago and it still produced about 6 units. I have my reservations about sharing things I find because we all know good things always come to an end.
No worries, bro, hope it keeps working for ya!
I'll be keeping tabs on Uupie's and Slavina's systems in here as we move forward to see how well they do. As for DFL, looks like the amazing run may be over. Either variance is catching up to him or perhaps he's putting less time into his capping now? Oh well, it was fun for a while last season!
Comment
uup115
SBR Sharp
09-28-11
483
#820
(units) (rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)
6 Houston (no play) N/P 6/5 San Diego -3/-4 L 5/4 Philadelphia -4.5/-6 W
Modified system added games.
7/5.5 Arizona -2.5/-3.5 W 4/4 Cincinnati -3/-3 P 4/4 New England -8.5/-9 W
This week we went 3-1-1 with a +8 unit win. Total for the season is now 18-13-1 with +2.1 units profit.
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#821
David has 3 teams on both cards. He hit those at a high rate last year. I haven't tracked that stat this year.
D F L 1
KC
DET
ARI
SD
BAL
D F L 2
KC
DET
ARI
SEA
PHI
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#822
Consensus for top 15 finishers last year(12 available):
Arizona - 9 selections
Jets - 8 selections
Miami - 7 selections
Buffalo - 6 selections
Philadelphia - 5 selections
Two additional top 30 finishers last year:
TEAMDHG ------ MIN NYJ MIA SF NYG
PHILDEEZ ------ DEN MIN JAX DET NYJ
Kansas City was selected 3x. No one selected Minnesota except the two top 30 finishers last year. Also, David Lane has KC on both entries. And the two tied in 1st in the Supercontest both have KC.
Looks like Arizona's the favorite over all channels
Comment
KidSeoul
SBR MVP
11-27-05
1203
#824
Quick question: out of the 5 selections in the super contest for the respective participant, are they weighted? Meaning, is Play 1 their strongest pick or is it just random regardless of the order of the Pick?
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#825
Originally posted by KidSeoul
Quick question: out of the 5 selections in the super contest for the respective participant, are they weighted? Meaning, is Play 1 their strongest pick or is it just random regardless of the order of the Pick?
They are all equal plays. They are listed in order they appear on any sportsbook. So Buffalo or Cleveland was first on most cards but not the most selected. If my wording makes any sense.
They are all equal plays. They are listed in order they appear on any sportsbook. So Buffalo or Cleveland was first on most cards but not the most selected. If my wording makes any sense.
6 Arizona -3* 5.5 New England -7.5* 3 Giants +4.5 * BEWARE, Any full point movement for/against or key number (3,7,10) move for/against will make me adjust my risk +/- by 20%. Shop your lines!
Last edited by uup115; 10-18-15, 10:45 AM.
Reason: Key number movement
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#829
Top 15 consensus finishes 3-2 on the week. Not sure the overall record but it's on the plus side.
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#830
D F L 1
KC
MIA
DET
WAS
IND
D F L 2
STL
KC
DET
ATL
SD
Comment
Jimmy Proffett
SBR MVP
10-20-09
2729
#831
I was calculating the 2015 Westgate Consensus Picks before; you can actually just find this week's here:
The Even Your Odds homepage will take you to other people's picks like Cowherd, Cousin Sal, other notable personalities.
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#832
Originally posted by Jimmy Proffett
I was calculating the 2015 Westgate Consensus Picks before; you can actually just find this week's here:
The Even Your Odds homepage will take you to other people's picks like Cowherd, Cousin Sal, other notable personalities.
Nice. I was just finishing up top 15 consensus of last year's results and then going go to do top 15 this year as well. That just saved me about 20 minutes. Nice find.
They are hovering around 50% on the season. No one is making money on them either tailing or fading.
Comment
jmathes
SBR MVP
02-19-09
2385
#837
JUST THROWING IN MY 2 CENTS
IND
MIA
STL
PIT
NYJ
DET
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#838
4-1 on consensus plays today with both top plays cashing. Dallas and Arizona are remaining. I don't think these plays have had a losing week since week 2?
Comment
Capybara
SBR Posting Legend
08-17-08
11803
#839
Originally posted by Slanina
4-1 on consensus plays today with both top plays cashing. Dallas and Arizona are remaining. I don't think these plays have had a losing week since week 2?
I thought there had been a couple of bad weeks. Although I guess you and UUP are not doing the same thing. Looks like he got rocked last weekend and didn't return for Week 7.
So how have you been betting yours? I forget if you outlined that somewhere earlier. I haven't been doing any flat tailing, just using the info in here as a helpful guide. Thanks for posting.
Comment
Slanina
SBR MVP
01-21-09
3827
#840
Originally posted by Capybara
I thought there had been a couple of bad weeks. Although I guess you and UUP are not doing the same thing. Looks like he got rocked last weekend and didn't return for Week 7.
So how have you been betting yours? I forget if you outlined that somewhere earlier. I haven't been doing any flat tailing, just using the info in here as a helpful guide. Thanks for posting.
I flat bet most of them except I put a little more on top plays. Usually 7 or more selections. There were a few break even weeks so I could've worded it better than I did. Maybe someday this week I'll get a complete record.