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Kings are -107 -1/2 right now at 5Dimes.That's almost .2 units....GL NinoComment -
snappy, when i clinked glasses with J$ (who called for the reg bet)...it was cuz we BOTH won (him with his reg, and me with my do-it-yourself -1 PL)...
bald_guy, thanks for chiming in...u obviously have the hang of the bet-sizing...but still have a bit of confusion about how it gets graded...with -1, you only WIN if your team wins by 2 or more...1 run victories get a "consolation PUSH"...anything worse than that INCLUDING a tie are big fat LOSSes...everything is for the WHOLE GAME, unlike the reg which grades at 60mins...so with the -1PL a reg tie gives you a chance for the consolation PUSH (if your team should win the game, which means win by 1, therefore a tie)...Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13, 06:16 PM.Comment -
'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...
notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...
but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)
on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.
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Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13, 07:18 PM.Comment -
Well. I still think a tie would be a push on the ML part of a home rolled ML-1. I think it depends on how your book grades a tie. Which don't happen very often.
Edit: seems ties can no longer happen. So the case above can't happen. When I seen total stats such as 16-5-1, I assumed the 1 was a tie. But guess they are reporting they was tied at end of regulation.Last edited by bald_guy; 04-04-13, 07:15 PM.Comment -
Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
Minny +160 .....................10 units
Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.Comment -
I prefer Bernier actually since Quicks come back from injury..Bernier is one hell of a goalieComment -
0-1 so far tonight. But luckily that was our 1 unit play. So lets hope our 2 2 unit plays do better!!
Update:
1-2 tonight. Since i got Los Angeles +100 with the roll your own ML-1 method, the 2 unit plays cancelled each other out so am only down one unit. Not bad at all.
Thanks for the picks. I think our fortunes will change soon.Last edited by bald_guy; 04-05-13, 12:01 AM.Comment -
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for those that don't mind thinking...this final report on how the "-0.5, reg" and "-1, whole game" bets compare price-wise...
Everything at 5dimes, so "apples with apples"...
right now...about an hour before puck-drop...
-0.5, reg = -107
"-1, whole game" = +100 (ML= -175/PL= +175)
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so it appears that the extra work involved in calculating and executing the -1PL (relative to the "off the shelf" regulation bet) is compensated somewhat by a little discount...I'd expect that such a small-yet-significant discount would tend to persist over the haul...i'd bet that those setting the "-0.5, reg" price are well-aware of the value of the -1PL and use it as a "benchmark" of sorts...for various historical-data-based reasons (esp. the ratio of regulation 1-goal victories by the fave to regulation ties...things that affect the relative value of the two options)...they like to consistently price their reg-bets a few points from it...(BTW, ditto the setting of the "+0.5,reg" relative to the +1PL "benchmark"...the differences will be the result of statistical calculation)
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it would be nice if an NHL data-weeny could evaluate the relative performance of each type of bet for all faves closing, say, with a ML -160 or higher...you'd need data on closing ML, PL, and reg bets as well as the game results
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I won't take up any more thread space with this...
Go Kings!!!Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13, 10:34 PM.Comment -
Sorry, pal. When I fade the Wild (as a homer) it is a good idea to tail. The Wild are 0-2 this year on the 2nd leg of back to back road games without a day of rest. Both losses are out west. Bernier is underrated as well.Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
Minny +160 .....................10 units
Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.Comment -
1-2 -1.33u
The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
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In this morning's Detroit Free Press
In direct response to El Nino's proposal...the legislative council of the great city of Detroit is now drafting a resolution to officially declare itself a "hermaphrodite"...
this would clear all legal barriers to attempting to fully comply...and set the stage for other cities to also attempt what once was thought impossible...
altho many logistical issues remain to be ironed out, all four major sports teams--the Wings, Tigers, and especially the Lions--are likely to play a key role in the proposed "Big Bang" scenario...and a committee is being set up to develop ways to educate the community on how to pawn everything they own and go "all in" en masse, when the signal is given by the city fathers...
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-05-13, 12:52 PM.Comment -
Nino:
Regulation for the Caps nicked you in the ass... sorry my friendComment -
O well. Last night was last night. Any thing good on tap for tonight niño?Comment -
4/5
Anaheim Ducks Regulation (-125) 2u
YTD
85-64-2 +34.73uComment -
Ducks aint looking to good right nowComment -
El nino can you please do a video in assless chaps?
Thank youComment -
Originally posted by Bolzano
lol at this attempt to sell bs infoComment -
Wow!!! I would Pay ANY amount of money for such valuable information. Where do I send my cash? Do you accept 3rd party, out of state checks? LOL!! Ridiculous!!Originally posted by BolzanoComment -
Nino... was at a damn baby shower, but as you can imagine i put 2U on Caps winning in regulation...
Well Ovie is penetrating lighting up the lamp.... watch out fellas.....Comment -
Caps -1.5 against Tampa.. This is to tough.... Big time points..Playing at home... Id take the $ line and not the PL... They are decent rivals, but its going to be loud tonight... why ? I am going to be at the game haha
GO CAPSComment
